2021 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

Morning folks. Day 1 of the NFL Draft is in the books. I wasn't in love with Cleveland as the host. The fan sitting in the chair was stupid. I think I enjoyed ol' Roger's basement better. That said it was nice to have Rich Eisen, who really is a terrific sports anchor, and the crew back. Daniel Jeremiah does a great job to the extent they almost haven't missed Mayock.... although Mike might be available to return before too much longer..... 

 

Right - onto the debrief!

 

The Bills Pick

Look, we all knew edge rusher was the Bills' biggest need. I have been saying for weeks that there were three guys in this class who could come in and make an impact at that spot as a rookie in this scheme: Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips and Gregory Rousseau. For the Bills to be able to stand pat and get one of those three at #30 is a pretty excellent outcome. It also signaled something about where the franchise believes it is, because Brandon Beane (as he often does) told us something he probably didn't mean to tell us last night - the Bills are not longer in pure BPA mode. I believe that there is a very strong argument that if you took the Bills back to the 2018 stage of the rebuild and gave them this board they'd have selected Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and said "we took the best player available." Last night, as Beane said himself, the question was who was the best player available who "affected the passer." This is a Bills team that is close and believes it is close and is looking at which spot is going to make the most significant difference in getting them over the hump. That isn't to say Rousseau was a big reach. He absolutely wasn't. He was the #5 player left on my board (I mistakenly said the #4 player left last night but it was 5am my time, give me a break) and other than JOK who was sticking out the rest are all pretty close. It is also interesting in considering the debates we have had on this board about possible edge options the last number of weeks - including about Jayson Oweh who went one pick later to Baltimore - that Brandon Beane specifically references Rousseau's knack for getting to the Quarterback. Because that is what Oweh lacks, that sort of innate game awareness to turn the opportunities his freakish athleticism provides into production. Put it this way... if Rousseau had backed up his 2019 season with another double digit sack season in 2020 then there is no way he'd have been on the board at #30. He still has some freakish traits even if he isn't that quick twitch, explosive, type. I think it is legitimate to have a slight concern that he didn't show up to his pro day in top shape after sitting out, he was a bit heavy and I am not convinced all that weight is functional weight - but the Bills will get him into their strength and conditioning programme and work on that. But at the end of the day, the production does not lie. Mookie Hawkins calls Brandon Beane "the burglar" well he might just have found another draft day steal. 

 

My Mock

Pretty good night for the mock...

 

- I had 23 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly. Exactly the same as last year and about my average. My best was 26 in 2017;

- 6 exact matches - I was 4/4 through four picks then knew once the Bengals had made the wrong choice at #5 that the next 7 or 8 were going to be wrong but nailed Alijah Vera-Tucker to the Jets and Zaven Collins to the Cardinals. 

- 8 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong - mainly a result of having the receivers stacked wrongly which I knew was going to be the case as soon as #5 was Chase which meant #6 was not him and it messed the order up from there. 

 

Player I was high on....

I've already touched on Owusu-Koramoah who remains on the board and is sticking out. Jacksonville really like the tight end from Penn State and were keen to go all offense but JOK must be tempting for them sitting there at #33 I think he'd fit their system nicely. Beyond him, for the second year in a row I had one first round graded safety and for the second year in a row that player I am surprised that player is still on the board. Last year it was Xavier McKinney and this year it is Trevon Moehrig. It really does show you what NFL teams think about the positional value of safeties. McKinney was really good as a rookie on a Giants defense that was sneaky good down the stretch and Moehrig will also be a fine player in this league. I expect him to hear his name in the first half dozen picks of round 2.  

 

Player I was down on....

I suppose you would say I was slightly down on Jaycee Horn because I had him as my #16 player and yet he was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of my #2 player in the entire class Patrick Surtain - at #8 to the Panthers. However, the reason I had Horn there is because he is more scheme specific than either Surtain or Farley who could basically plug into any defense in the NFL and be great (if Farley is healthy of course) but in Carolina I think Horn will be very, very good indeed. I had three guys graded after round 2 on my board go last night. Payton Turner, Joe Tyron and Eric Stokes. On Tyron I definitely knocked him for being very scheme specific but I was not shocked he snuck into the back of the 1st with Tampa because he is a perfect scheme fit there. Stokes I struggle more with because to me he isn't even the best corner on his own college team in this draft class. And if there is one team that does not deserve the benefit of the doubt when drafting defensive backs in rounds 1 and 2 over the last decade it is Green Bay. Stokes becomes the EIGHTH defensive back taken in rounds 1 and 2 by the Packers since 2015 and yet, as we all saw in the NFC Championship game their problem remains the secondary - of the previous 7 only Jaire Alexander has really been a success. So for all the gnashing of teeth and wailing in horror last year when they spent their first rounder on a guy they hope can be their future at the most important position in sports, the real reason the Packers have failed to support Aaron Rodgers better in the last half decade is their propensity for absolutely wasting early picks on bad defensive backs. Stupid is as stupid does....

 

Biggest shock of the night

To me it was the Bears trading up for Justin Fields. I thought earlier in the process that Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy whose jobs are on the line in 2021 would have to do something about Quarterback. Rolling with Nick Foles and Andy Dalton as a competition might be the most depressing situation of any NFL team. However, after mocking Mac Jones to them in my version 2.0 mock I did a lot of research and background checks on their process - I even managed to exchange messages with a pretty plugged in beat guy in Chicago and came away relatively convinced that they were not going to draft a guy in round 1. I wonder if when Fields slipped out of the top 10 it was just an impulse decision that the value required them to try and make the move. Aggressive and I don't dislike it, but I was shocked. 

 

Worst pick

This should almost be renamed the "John Schneider Award" after he has monopolised this slot in recent years but with the Seahawks not having a first round pick this year he gave someone else a shot. I have already alluded to Payton Turner, the edge rusher from Houston, who the Saints snagged at #28. He was my #106 player. I didn't watch him until late in the process and I only watched 3 games (Tulane, UCF, BYU) - which is the minimum for someone going on my board - but I was not impressed. He plays stiff to me and while I see he definitely fits the height, weight, size profile that the Saints look for he feels like a less explosive, less fluid version of Marcus Davenport who they took a huge swing on when trading up in 2018 from #27 to #14. While he seemed to take a step forward in his sophomore year of 2019 he took a step back in 2020 and as yet I don't believe has had his 5th year option taken up. Just feels to me like a similar swing at a less talented version of the same guy. Confusing.

I also can't let this section pass without a mention for Cincinnati. I get it a lot of folks love Ja'Marr Chase. So do I, I had a high grade on him, he was my #7 overall player, and he was taken at #5, what's the problem? Well for me it is this. I think the Bengals already have a stud young wide receiver in Tee Higgins who I was much higher than most people of this board on last draft season and he had over 900 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie and was on pace for well over 1,000 yards in the games he started with Burrow. But Burrow only started 9 games as a rookie, after being drafted #1 overall on the back of the greatest college Quarterback season of all time. Why, I hear you ask, did Joe Burrow only start 9 times as a rookie? Well, because the Cincinnati Bungles, the most dysfunctional franchise in the sport who in their last 14 non Marvin Lewis coached seasons (both pre and post Magic Marvin) have never had a winning record and have won fewer than six games ten times.... a franchise run by an out of touch owner who doesn't believe in scouting.... a franchise whose last #1 overall Quarterback got to the point of retiring rather than continuing to play for them... fail to understand the absolute basics of this game. You can have Tom Brady, Joe Montona, Peyton Manning and John Elway morphed into one person playing Quarterback... but if they are lying on the turf they can't affect the game. 9 games into his NFL career Joe Burrow, who while not a statue is a conventional pocket passer in style, was writhing around the turf with his anterior cruciate ligament snapped in two because the Bungles can't block to save their lives and haven't been able to for multiple seasons now. And there at #5 sat one of the best left tackle prospects in a decade just waiting to be selected. A guy who could lock down the blindside for the bulk of what is left of Burrow's career. But, no. Not the Bungles. They selected a wide receiver. Joe Burrow might even have encouraged them to select his guy Ja'Marr. Well they will regret this pick. Burrow will get hurt again, it is almost inevitable. Marvin Lewis's time was up in Cincy, it was time to move on. But when people look back in years to come they will realise that making that cesspit somewhat respectable for the best part of 15 years was a hell of a feat. Bad franchises stay bad because they make bad decisions. Well done Cincinnati. You do you. 

 

So after that rant.... .... What's left?

Going into day 2 here is the top 10 BPA by my board:

 

1. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

2. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

3. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

4. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

5. Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

6. Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

7. Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

8. Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

9. Kelvin Joseph^, CB, Kentucky

10. Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa

 

^ - denotes off field concerns

 

Final thought - I expect corner and wide receiver to be in play for the Bills at #61.... I don't expect them to move up at this point but if the board begins to thin out at those two spots I would not rule it out. Enjoy day 2!!

[Taro Nimbus]

Fantastic read.  I agree with everything you said except for the very last part.  I dont feel the Bills need to draft a WR so early, as they have a pretty deep WR core as it is.  The bills need players that can step in and play from day 1 and they need a corner opposite of Tre White.  I felt the Bills would get a corner at pick 1 and D Line at pick 2.  Here's to hoping they can grab Kelvin Joseph or Asante Samuel Jr

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Taro Nimbus said:

Fantastic read.  I agree with everything you said except for the very last part.  I dont feel the Bills need to draft a WR so early, as they have a pretty deep WR core as it is.  The bills need players that can step in and play from day 1 and they need a corner opposite of Tre White.  I felt the Bills would get a corner at pick 1 and D Line at pick 2.  Here's to hoping they can grab Kelvin Joseph or Asante Samuel Jr

 

Thanks. On receiver they ran more 4 and 5 wide than any team in the NFL last year. When that is your offense you always need to take receivers - it has basically been the Steelers model for the last decade. Spread offense take a receiver every year. Not saying it is where they will go at #61 but I would not be shocked if corner has thinned out.

 

I still don't get the Samuel thing though. I know they met him twice but I think he needs to go to a man coverage team. Clunky fit for us I think. Joseph would be great if they are content with his character issues.

[Process]

Worst pick has to be the Jags taking ETN. They hit the jackpot last year finding a productive, workhorse RB as an UDFA. Then waste a pick on a RB in the first a year later. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

Worst pick has to be the Jags taking ETN. They hit the jackpot last year finding a productive, workhorse RB as an UDFA. Then waste a pick on a RB in the first a year later. 

 

Yea that was a confusing move too. And it give me a chance to remind folks that I thought James Robinson was draftable last year too just as a reminder... he was one of my Shrine Game standouts  

[BillsFan130]

Where did you have leatherwood ranked out of curiosity?
 

Seemed to me the raiders reached pretty aggressively on him.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Where did you have leatherwood ranked out of curiosity?
 

Seemed to me the raiders reached pretty aggressively on him.

 

I had Leatherwood at #32, and graded as an early-mid 2nd rounder. So a reach, but not a New Orleans style reach. I like his potential as a guard. That is his position in the NFL to me. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

58 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Morning folks. Day 1 of the NFL Draft is in the books. I wasn't in love with Cleveland as the host. The fan sitting in the chair was stupid. I think I enjoyed ol' Roger's basement better. That said it was nice to have Rich Eisen, who really is a terrific sports anchor, and the crew back. Daniel Jeremiah does a great job to the extent they almost haven't missed Mayock.... although Mike might be available to return before too much longer..... 

 

Right - onto the debrief!

 

The Bills Pick

Look, we all knew edge rusher was the Bills' biggest need. I have been saying for weeks that there were three guys in this class who could come in and make an impact at that spot as a rookie in this scheme: Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips and Gregory Rousseau. For the Bills to be able to stand pat and get one of those three at #30 is a pretty excellent outcome. It also signaled something about where the franchise believes it is, because Brandon Beane (as he often does) told us something he probably didn't mean to tell us last night - the Bills are not longer in pure BPA mode. I believe that there is a very strong argument that if you took the Bills back to the 2018 stage of the rebuild and gave them this board they'd have selected Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and said "we took the best player available." Last night, as Beane said himself, the question was who was the best player available who "affected the passer." This is a Bills team that is close and believes it is close and is looking at which spot is going to make the most significant difference in getting them over the hump. That isn't to say Rousseau was a big reach. He absolutely wasn't. He was the #5 player left on my board (I mistakenly said the #4 player left last night but it was 5am my time, give me a break) and other than JOK who was sticking out the rest are all pretty close. It is also interesting in considering the debates we have had on this board about possible edge options the last number of weeks - including about Jayson Oweh who went one pick later to Baltimore - that Brandon Beane specifically references Rousseau's knack for getting to the Quarterback. Because that is what Oweh lacks, that sort of innate game awareness to turn the opportunities his freakish athleticism provides into production. Put it this way... if Rousseau had backed up his 2019 season with another double digit sack season in 2020 then there is no way he'd have been on the board at #30. He still has some freakish traits even if he isn't that quick twitch, explosive, type. I think it is legitimate to have a slight concern that he didn't show up to his pro day in top shape after sitting out, he was a bit heavy and I am not convinced all that weight is functional weight - but the Bills will get him into their strength and conditioning programme and work on that. But at the end of the day, the production does not lie. Mookie Hawkins calls Brandon Beane "the burglar" well he might just have found another draft day steal. 

 

My Mock

Pretty good night for the mock...

 

- I had 23 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly. Exactly the same as last year and about my average. My best was 26 in 2017;

- 6 exact matches - I was 4/4 through four picks then knew once the Bengals had made the wrong choice at #5 that the next 7 or 8 were going to be wrong but nailed Alijah Vera-Tucker to the Jets and Zaven Collins to the Cardinals. 

- 8 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong - mainly a result of having the receivers stacked wrongly which I knew was going to be the case as soon as #5 was Chase which meant #6 was not him and it messed the order up from there. 

 

Player I was high on....

I've already touched on Owusu-Koramoah who remains on the board and is sticking out. Jacksonville really like the tight end from Penn State and were keen to go all offense but JOK must be tempting for them sitting there at #33 I think he'd fit their system nicely. Beyond him, for the second year in a row I had one first round graded safety and for the second year in a row that player I am surprised that player is still on the board. Last year it was Xavier McKinney and this year it is Trevon Moehrig. It really does show you what NFL teams think about the positional value of safeties. McKinney was really good as a rookie on a Giants defense that was sneaky good down the stretch and Moehrig will also be a fine player in this league. I expect him to hear his name in the first half dozen picks of round 2.  

 

Player I was down on....

I suppose you would say I was slightly down on Jaycee Horn because I had him as my #16 player and yet he was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of my #2 player in the entire class Patrick Surtain - at #8 to the Panthers. However, the reason I had Horn there is because he is more scheme specific than either Surtain or Farley who could basically plug into any defense in the NFL and be great (if Farley is healthy of course) but in Carolina I think Horn will be very, very good indeed. I had three guys graded after round 2 on my board go last night. Payton Turner, Joe Tyron and Eric Stokes. On Tyron I definitely knocked him for being very scheme specific but I was not shocked he snuck into the back of the 1st with Tampa because he is a perfect scheme fit there. Stokes I struggle more with because to me he isn't even the best corner on his own college team in this draft class. And if there is one team that does not deserve the benefit of the doubt when drafting defensive backs in rounds 1 and 2 over the last decade it is Green Bay. Stokes becomes the EIGHTH defensive back taken in rounds 1 and 2 by the Packers since 2015 and yet, as we all saw in the NFC Championship game their problem remains the secondary - of the previous 7 only Jaire Alexander has really been a success. So for all the gnashing of teeth and wailing in horror last year when they spent their first rounder on a guy they hope can be their future at the most important position in sports, the real reason the Packers have failed to support Aaron Rodgers better in the last half decade is their propensity for absolutely wasting early picks on bad defensive backs. Stupid is as stupid does....

 

Biggest shock of the night

To me it was the Bears trading up for Justin Fields. I thought earlier in the process that Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy whose jobs are on the line in 2021 would have to do something about Quarterback. Rolling with Nick Foles and Andy Dalton as a competition might be the most depressing situation of any NFL team. However, after mocking Mac Jones to them in my version 2.0 mock I did a lot of research and background checks on their process - I even managed to exchange messages with a pretty plugged in beat guy in Chicago and came away relatively convinced that they were not going to draft a guy in round 1. I wonder if when Fields slipped out of the top 10 it was just an impulse decision that the value required them to try and make the move. Aggressive and I don't dislike it, but I was shocked. 

 

Worst pick

This should almost be renamed the "John Schneider Award" after he has monopolised this slot in recent years but with the Seahawks not having a first round pick this year he gave someone else a shot. I have already alluded to Payton Turner, the edge rusher from Houston, who the Saints snagged at #28. He was my #106 player. I didn't watch him until late in the process and I only watched 3 games (Tulane, UCF, BYU) - which is the minimum for someone going on my board - but I was not impressed. He plays stiff to me and while I see he definitely fits the height, weight, size profile that the Saints look for he feels like a less explosive, less fluid version of Marcus Davenport who they took a huge swing on when trading up in 2018 from #27 to #14. While he seemed to take a step forward in his sophomore year of 2019 he took a step back in 2020 and as yet I don't believe has had his 5th year option taken up. Just feels to me like a similar swing at a less talented version of the same guy. Confusing.

I also can't let this section pass without a mention for Cincinnati. I get it a lot of folks love Ja'Marr Chase. So do I, I had a high grade on him, he was my #7 overall player, and he was taken at #5, what's the problem? Well for me it is this. I think the Bengals already have a stud young wide receiver in Tee Higgins who I was much higher than most people of this board on last draft season and he had over 900 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie and was on pace for well over 1,000 yards in the games he started with Burrow. But Burrow only started 9 games as a rookie, after being drafted #1 overall on the back of the greatest college Quarterback season of all time. Why, I hear you ask, did Joe Burrow only start 9 times as a rookie? Well, because the Cincinnati Bungles, the most dysfunctional franchise in the sport who in their last 14 non Marvin Lewis coached seasons (both pre and post Magic Marvin) have never had a winning record and have won fewer than six games ten times.... a franchise run by an out of touch owner who doesn't believe in scouting.... a franchise whose last #1 overall Quarterback got to the point of retiring rather than continuing to play for them... fail to understand the absolute basics of this game. You can have Tom Brady, Joe Montona, Peyton Manning and John Elway morphed into one person playing Quarterback... but if they are lying on the turf they can't affect the game. 9 games into his NFL career Joe Burrow, who while not a statue is a conventional pocket passer in style, was writhing around the turf with his anterior cruciate ligament snapped in two because the Bungles can't block to save their lives and haven't been able to for multiple seasons now. And there at #5 sat one of the best left tackle prospects in a decade just waiting to be selected. A guy who could lock down the blindside for the bulk of what is left of Burrow's career. But, no. Not the Bungles. They selected a wide receiver. Joe Burrow might even have encouraged them to select his guy Ja'Marr. Well they will regret this pick. Burrow will get hurt again, it is almost inevitable. Marvin Lewis's time was up in Cincy, it was time to move on. But when people look back in years to come they will realise that making that cesspit somewhat respectable for the best part of 15 years was a hell of a feat. Bad franchises stay bad because they make bad decisions. Well done Cincinnati. You do you. 

 

So after that rant.... .... What's left?

Going into day 2 here is the top 10 BPA by my board:

 

1. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

2. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

3. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

4. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

5. Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

6. Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

7. Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

8. Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

9. Kelvin Joseph^, CB, Kentucky

10. Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa

 

^ - denotes off field concerns

 

Final thought - I expect corner and wide receiver to be in play for the Bills at #61.... I don't expect them to move up at this point but if the board begins to thin out at those two spots I would not rule it out. Enjoy day 2!!

Nice work! How do you think Barmore would fit the Bills? Seems like we need more of a pure 1-tech guy perhaps a bit later.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Nice work! How do you think Barmore would fit the Bills? Seems like we need more of a pure 1-tech guy perhaps a bit later.

 

I doubt he gets down to us but if he did the value is pretty hard to pass. He isn't what you'd call a pure 1T but he can do it, for sure. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Great summation OP! Enjoyed the read and agree with pretty much everything. Also think the Bills would be well served to look at WR for the next pick given our offensive style requiring playmakers at 4-5 wide, and the fact that we need to maintain developing depth at a position we rely on so much to win our games by. Realistically looking ahead,how much longer do we have Beasley and to say nothing of how much more can be squeezed from Sanders? When injuries hit WR’s late, we suffered mightily against KC for it. So I’d be thrilled to get some value at WR today, imho. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Morning folks. Day 1 of the NFL Draft is in the books. I wasn't in love with Cleveland as the host. The fan sitting in the chair was stupid. I think I enjoyed ol' Roger's basement better. That said it was nice to have Rich Eisen, who really is a terrific sports anchor, and the crew back. Daniel Jeremiah does a great job to the extent they almost haven't missed Mayock.... although Mike might be available to return before too much longer..... 

 

Right - onto the debrief!

 

The Bills Pick

Look, we all knew edge rusher was the Bills' biggest need. I have been saying for weeks that there were three guys in this class who could come in and make an impact at that spot as a rookie in this scheme: Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips and Gregory Rousseau. For the Bills to be able to stand pat and get one of those three at #30 is a pretty excellent outcome. It also signaled something about where the franchise believes it is, because Brandon Beane (as he often does) told us something he probably didn't mean to tell us last night - the Bills are not longer in pure BPA mode. I believe that there is a very strong argument that if you took the Bills back to the 2018 stage of the rebuild and gave them this board they'd have selected Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and said "we took the best player available." Last night, as Beane said himself, the question was who was the best player available who "affected the passer." This is a Bills team that is close and believes it is close and is looking at which spot is going to make the most significant difference in getting them over the hump. That isn't to say Rousseau was a big reach. He absolutely wasn't. He was the #5 player left on my board (I mistakenly said the #4 player left last night but it was 5am my time, give me a break) and other than JOK who was sticking out the rest are all pretty close. It is also interesting in considering the debates we have had on this board about possible edge options the last number of weeks - including about Jayson Oweh who went one pick later to Baltimore - that Brandon Beane specifically references Rousseau's knack for getting to the Quarterback. Because that is what Oweh lacks, that sort of innate game awareness to turn the opportunities his freakish athleticism provides into production. Put it this way... if Rousseau had backed up his 2019 season with another double digit sack season in 2020 then there is no way he'd have been on the board at #30. He still has some freakish traits even if he isn't that quick twitch, explosive, type. I think it is legitimate to have a slight concern that he didn't show up to his pro day in top shape after sitting out, he was a bit heavy and I am not convinced all that weight is functional weight - but the Bills will get him into their strength and conditioning programme and work on that. But at the end of the day, the production does not lie. Mookie Hawkins calls Brandon Beane "the burglar" well he might just have found another draft day steal. 

 

My Mock

Pretty good night for the mock...

 

- I had 23 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly. Exactly the same as last year and about my average. My best was 26 in 2017;

- 6 exact matches - I was 4/4 through four picks then knew once the Bengals had made the wrong choice at #5 that the next 7 or 8 were going to be wrong but nailed Alijah Vera-Tucker to the Jets and Zaven Collins to the Cardinals. 

- 8 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong - mainly a result of having the receivers stacked wrongly which I knew was going to be the case as soon as #5 was Chase which meant #6 was not him and it messed the order up from there. 

 

Player I was high on....

I've already touched on Owusu-Koramoah who remains on the board and is sticking out. Jacksonville really like the tight end from Penn State and were keen to go all offense but JOK must be tempting for them sitting there at #33 I think he'd fit their system nicely. Beyond him, for the second year in a row I had one first round graded safety and for the second year in a row that player I am surprised that player is still on the board. Last year it was Xavier McKinney and this year it is Trevon Moehrig. It really does show you what NFL teams think about the positional value of safeties. McKinney was really good as a rookie on a Giants defense that was sneaky good down the stretch and Moehrig will also be a fine player in this league. I expect him to hear his name in the first half dozen picks of round 2.  

 

Player I was down on....

I suppose you would say I was slightly down on Jaycee Horn because I had him as my #16 player and yet he was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of my #2 player in the entire class Patrick Surtain - at #8 to the Panthers. However, the reason I had Horn there is because he is more scheme specific than either Surtain or Farley who could basically plug into any defense in the NFL and be great (if Farley is healthy of course) but in Carolina I think Horn will be very, very good indeed. I had three guys graded after round 2 on my board go last night. Payton Turner, Joe Tyron and Eric Stokes. On Tyron I definitely knocked him for being very scheme specific but I was not shocked he snuck into the back of the 1st with Tampa because he is a perfect scheme fit there. Stokes I struggle more with because to me he isn't even the best corner on his own college team in this draft class. And if there is one team that does not deserve the benefit of the doubt when drafting defensive backs in rounds 1 and 2 over the last decade it is Green Bay. Stokes becomes the EIGHTH defensive back taken in rounds 1 and 2 by the Packers since 2015 and yet, as we all saw in the NFC Championship game their problem remains the secondary - of the previous 7 only Jaire Alexander has really been a success. So for all the gnashing of teeth and wailing in horror last year when they spent their first rounder on a guy they hope can be their future at the most important position in sports, the real reason the Packers have failed to support Aaron Rodgers better in the last half decade is their propensity for absolutely wasting early picks on bad defensive backs. Stupid is as stupid does....

 

Biggest shock of the night

To me it was the Bears trading up for Justin Fields. I thought earlier in the process that Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy whose jobs are on the line in 2021 would have to do something about Quarterback. Rolling with Nick Foles and Andy Dalton as a competition might be the most depressing situation of any NFL team. However, after mocking Mac Jones to them in my version 2.0 mock I did a lot of research and background checks on their process - I even managed to exchange messages with a pretty plugged in beat guy in Chicago and came away relatively convinced that they were not going to draft a guy in round 1. I wonder if when Fields slipped out of the top 10 it was just an impulse decision that the value required them to try and make the move. Aggressive and I don't dislike it, but I was shocked. 

 

Worst pick

This should almost be renamed the "John Schneider Award" after he has monopolised this slot in recent years but with the Seahawks not having a first round pick this year he gave someone else a shot. I have already alluded to Payton Turner, the edge rusher from Houston, who the Saints snagged at #28. He was my #106 player. I didn't watch him until late in the process and I only watched 3 games (Tulane, UCF, BYU) - which is the minimum for someone going on my board - but I was not impressed. He plays stiff to me and while I see he definitely fits the height, weight, size profile that the Saints look for he feels like a less explosive, less fluid version of Marcus Davenport who they took a huge swing on when trading up in 2018 from #27 to #14. While he seemed to take a step forward in his sophomore year of 2019 he took a step back in 2020 and as yet I don't believe has had his 5th year option taken up. Just feels to me like a similar swing at a less talented version of the same guy. Confusing.

I also can't let this section pass without a mention for Cincinnati. I get it a lot of folks love Ja'Marr Chase. So do I, I had a high grade on him, he was my #7 overall player, and he was taken at #5, what's the problem? Well for me it is this. I think the Bengals already have a stud young wide receiver in Tee Higgins who I was much higher than most people of this board on last draft season and he had over 900 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie and was on pace for well over 1,000 yards in the games he started with Burrow. But Burrow only started 9 games as a rookie, after being drafted #1 overall on the back of the greatest college Quarterback season of all time. Why, I hear you ask, did Joe Burrow only start 9 times as a rookie? Well, because the Cincinnati Bungles, the most dysfunctional franchise in the sport who in their last 14 non Marvin Lewis coached seasons (both pre and post Magic Marvin) have never had a winning record and have won fewer than six games ten times.... a franchise run by an out of touch owner who doesn't believe in scouting.... a franchise whose last #1 overall Quarterback got to the point of retiring rather than continuing to play for them... fail to understand the absolute basics of this game. You can have Tom Brady, Joe Montona, Peyton Manning and John Elway morphed into one person playing Quarterback... but if they are lying on the turf they can't affect the game. 9 games into his NFL career Joe Burrow, who while not a statue is a conventional pocket passer in style, was writhing around the turf with his anterior cruciate ligament snapped in two because the Bungles can't block to save their lives and haven't been able to for multiple seasons now. And there at #5 sat one of the best left tackle prospects in a decade just waiting to be selected. A guy who could lock down the blindside for the bulk of what is left of Burrow's career. But, no. Not the Bungles. They selected a wide receiver. Joe Burrow might even have encouraged them to select his guy Ja'Marr. Well they will regret this pick. Burrow will get hurt again, it is almost inevitable. Marvin Lewis's time was up in Cincy, it was time to move on. But when people look back in years to come they will realise that making that cesspit somewhat respectable for the best part of 15 years was a hell of a feat. Bad franchises stay bad because they make bad decisions. Well done Cincinnati. You do you. 

 

So after that rant.... .... What's left?

Going into day 2 here is the top 10 BPA by my board:

 

1. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

2. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

3. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

4. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

5. Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

6. Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

7. Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

8. Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

9. Kelvin Joseph^, CB, Kentucky

10. Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa

 

^ - denotes off field concerns

 

Final thought - I expect corner and wide receiver to be in play for the Bills at #61.... I don't expect them to move up at this point but if the board begins to thin out at those two spots I would not rule it out. Enjoy day 2!!

You rock dude. I have come away with the feeling of trying to move up 8-10 spots in the 2nd, most likely for WR or CB, darkhorses being interior OL or a DT like Alim McNeil. Keep the good stuff coming sir!!!

[RobbRiddick]

I agree about the fans in the chair. Looked bizarre and when Roger walked out it sometimes looked like he was visiting a mentally disadvantaged relative in a nursing home

[DJB]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Morning folks. Day 1 of the NFL Draft is in the books. I wasn't in love with Cleveland as the host. The fan sitting in the chair was stupid. I think I enjoyed ol' Roger's basement better. That said it was nice to have Rich Eisen, who really is a terrific sports anchor, and the crew back. Daniel Jeremiah does a great job to the extent they almost haven't missed Mayock.... although Mike might be available to return before too much longer..... 

 

Right - onto the debrief!

 

The Bills Pick

Look, we all knew edge rusher was the Bills' biggest need. I have been saying for weeks that there were three guys in this class who could come in and make an impact at that spot as a rookie in this scheme: Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips and Gregory Rousseau. For the Bills to be able to stand pat and get one of those three at #30 is a pretty excellent outcome. It also signaled something about where the franchise believes it is, because Brandon Beane (as he often does) told us something he probably didn't mean to tell us last night - the Bills are not longer in pure BPA mode. I believe that there is a very strong argument that if you took the Bills back to the 2018 stage of the rebuild and gave them this board they'd have selected Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and said "we took the best player available." Last night, as Beane said himself, the question was who was the best player available who "affected the passer." This is a Bills team that is close and believes it is close and is looking at which spot is going to make the most significant difference in getting them over the hump. That isn't to say Rousseau was a big reach. He absolutely wasn't. He was the #5 player left on my board (I mistakenly said the #4 player left last night but it was 5am my time, give me a break) and other than JOK who was sticking out the rest are all pretty close. It is also interesting in considering the debates we have had on this board about possible edge options the last number of weeks - including about Jayson Oweh who went one pick later to Baltimore - that Brandon Beane specifically references Rousseau's knack for getting to the Quarterback. Because that is what Oweh lacks, that sort of innate game awareness to turn the opportunities his freakish athleticism provides into production. Put it this way... if Rousseau had backed up his 2019 season with another double digit sack season in 2020 then there is no way he'd have been on the board at #30. He still has some freakish traits even if he isn't that quick twitch, explosive, type. I think it is legitimate to have a slight concern that he didn't show up to his pro day in top shape after sitting out, he was a bit heavy and I am not convinced all that weight is functional weight - but the Bills will get him into their strength and conditioning programme and work on that. But at the end of the day, the production does not lie. Mookie Hawkins calls Brandon Beane "the burglar" well he might just have found another draft day steal. 

 

My Mock

Pretty good night for the mock...

 

- I had 23 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly. Exactly the same as last year and about my average. My best was 26 in 2017;

- 6 exact matches - I was 4/4 through four picks then knew once the Bengals had made the wrong choice at #5 that the next 7 or 8 were going to be wrong but nailed Alijah Vera-Tucker to the Jets and Zaven Collins to the Cardinals. 

- 8 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong - mainly a result of having the receivers stacked wrongly which I knew was going to be the case as soon as #5 was Chase which meant #6 was not him and it messed the order up from there. 

 

Player I was high on....

I've already touched on Owusu-Koramoah who remains on the board and is sticking out. Jacksonville really like the tight end from Penn State and were keen to go all offense but JOK must be tempting for them sitting there at #33 I think he'd fit their system nicely. Beyond him, for the second year in a row I had one first round graded safety and for the second year in a row that player I am surprised that player is still on the board. Last year it was Xavier McKinney and this year it is Trevon Moehrig. It really does show you what NFL teams think about the positional value of safeties. McKinney was really good as a rookie on a Giants defense that was sneaky good down the stretch and Moehrig will also be a fine player in this league. I expect him to hear his name in the first half dozen picks of round 2.  

 

Player I was down on....

I suppose you would say I was slightly down on Jaycee Horn because I had him as my #16 player and yet he was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of my #2 player in the entire class Patrick Surtain - at #8 to the Panthers. However, the reason I had Horn there is because he is more scheme specific than either Surtain or Farley who could basically plug into any defense in the NFL and be great (if Farley is healthy of course) but in Carolina I think Horn will be very, very good indeed. I had three guys graded after round 2 on my board go last night. Payton Turner, Joe Tyron and Eric Stokes. On Tyron I definitely knocked him for being very scheme specific but I was not shocked he snuck into the back of the 1st with Tampa because he is a perfect scheme fit there. Stokes I struggle more with because to me he isn't even the best corner on his own college team in this draft class. And if there is one team that does not deserve the benefit of the doubt when drafting defensive backs in rounds 1 and 2 over the last decade it is Green Bay. Stokes becomes the EIGHTH defensive back taken in rounds 1 and 2 by the Packers since 2015 and yet, as we all saw in the NFC Championship game their problem remains the secondary - of the previous 7 only Jaire Alexander has really been a success. So for all the gnashing of teeth and wailing in horror last year when they spent their first rounder on a guy they hope can be their future at the most important position in sports, the real reason the Packers have failed to support Aaron Rodgers better in the last half decade is their propensity for absolutely wasting early picks on bad defensive backs. Stupid is as stupid does....

 

Biggest shock of the night

To me it was the Bears trading up for Justin Fields. I thought earlier in the process that Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy whose jobs are on the line in 2021 would have to do something about Quarterback. Rolling with Nick Foles and Andy Dalton as a competition might be the most depressing situation of any NFL team. However, after mocking Mac Jones to them in my version 2.0 mock I did a lot of research and background checks on their process - I even managed to exchange messages with a pretty plugged in beat guy in Chicago and came away relatively convinced that they were not going to draft a guy in round 1. I wonder if when Fields slipped out of the top 10 it was just an impulse decision that the value required them to try and make the move. Aggressive and I don't dislike it, but I was shocked. 

 

Worst pick

This should almost be renamed the "John Schneider Award" after he has monopolised this slot in recent years but with the Seahawks not having a first round pick this year he gave someone else a shot. I have already alluded to Payton Turner, the edge rusher from Houston, who the Saints snagged at #28. He was my #106 player. I didn't watch him until late in the process and I only watched 3 games (Tulane, UCF, BYU) - which is the minimum for someone going on my board - but I was not impressed. He plays stiff to me and while I see he definitely fits the height, weight, size profile that the Saints look for he feels like a less explosive, less fluid version of Marcus Davenport who they took a huge swing on when trading up in 2018 from #27 to #14. While he seemed to take a step forward in his sophomore year of 2019 he took a step back in 2020 and as yet I don't believe has had his 5th year option taken up. Just feels to me like a similar swing at a less talented version of the same guy. Confusing.

I also can't let this section pass without a mention for Cincinnati. I get it a lot of folks love Ja'Marr Chase. So do I, I had a high grade on him, he was my #7 overall player, and he was taken at #5, what's the problem? Well for me it is this. I think the Bengals already have a stud young wide receiver in Tee Higgins who I was much higher than most people of this board on last draft season and he had over 900 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie and was on pace for well over 1,000 yards in the games he started with Burrow. But Burrow only started 9 games as a rookie, after being drafted #1 overall on the back of the greatest college Quarterback season of all time. Why, I hear you ask, did Joe Burrow only start 9 times as a rookie? Well, because the Cincinnati Bungles, the most dysfunctional franchise in the sport who in their last 14 non Marvin Lewis coached seasons (both pre and post Magic Marvin) have never had a winning record and have won fewer than six games ten times.... a franchise run by an out of touch owner who doesn't believe in scouting.... a franchise whose last #1 overall Quarterback got to the point of retiring rather than continuing to play for them... fail to understand the absolute basics of this game. You can have Tom Brady, Joe Montona, Peyton Manning and John Elway morphed into one person playing Quarterback... but if they are lying on the turf they can't affect the game. 9 games into his NFL career Joe Burrow, who while not a statue is a conventional pocket passer in style, was writhing around the turf with his anterior cruciate ligament snapped in two because the Bungles can't block to save their lives and haven't been able to for multiple seasons now. And there at #5 sat one of the best left tackle prospects in a decade just waiting to be selected. A guy who could lock down the blindside for the bulk of what is left of Burrow's career. But, no. Not the Bungles. They selected a wide receiver. Joe Burrow might even have encouraged them to select his guy Ja'Marr. Well they will regret this pick. Burrow will get hurt again, it is almost inevitable. Marvin Lewis's time was up in Cincy, it was time to move on. But when people look back in years to come they will realise that making that cesspit somewhat respectable for the best part of 15 years was a hell of a feat. Bad franchises stay bad because they make bad decisions. Well done Cincinnati. You do you. 

 

So after that rant.... .... What's left?

Going into day 2 here is the top 10 BPA by my board:

 

1. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

2. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

3. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

4. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

5. Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

6. Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

7. Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

8. Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

9. Kelvin Joseph^, CB, Kentucky

10. Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa

 

^ - denotes off field concerns

 

Final thought - I expect corner and wide receiver to be in play for the Bills at #61.... I don't expect them to move up at this point but if the board begins to thin out at those two spots I would not rule it out. Enjoy day 2!!

 

See I view the pick of Rousseau differently. Because we are in such a position of being a contender, I really think we should be going BPA and just continue to add ballers and not worry about depth or position of need. Bad teams usually reach for needs. Good teams take the BPA and make it work. The Ravens are a good example of that as they always go BPA and are usually applauded for doing so. 

 

I don't mind Rousseau as the pick as he was in my top 5 players still available at the time, but I think we should have stuck with the BPA and in my mind that was JOK. 

[RobbRiddick]

Excellent write up. I hate to say it but I am impressed with how the Jets are doing things now. A lot of mocks had them taking QB and then WR or RB, which would have been the splash, headline grabbing move. That's definitely what past regimes would have done but they got their QB and then went up to get a top lineman to protect him. 

 

With the Phins improving again and the Pats looking much better the East is going to be a real dog fight this season. I think a lot of the rivalries will end up split at the end of the season

[Buffalo Boy]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I think it is legitimate to have a slight concern that he didn't show up to his pro day in top shape after sitting out, he was a bit heavy and I am not convinced all that weight is functional weight - but the Bills will get him into their strength and conditioning programme and work on that.

    I don’t think it can be overstated that last year, in it’s entirety, on many fronts that effect athletes( and all of us) sucked!!!!

    His mother being a nurse made this a real thing for him. My wife is a nurse and last year was soul sucking for her and therefore me( a person who loves her) This young man/ boy watching his Mom go through that had a negative effect I’m sure. 

     My kid’s a Div 1 runner who quit his team last fall ( and left a tidy sum of scholarship on the table) due to pandemic related restrictions and not competing. This last year really EFFED with peoples heads and motivations. 
    Add to that the other big news of the year ( which we aren’t to discuss) which may have made a huge impression upon him and one can understand not getting his Pro Day right.

    Excuses??? Maybe, but this goes part and parcel with Process and trusting Beane’s judgment.

    I get and am also a little wary of Beane’s track record on DL drafting. However, this was the logical pick at the position. Increased pressure from the front of this defense and our O holding serve may be what puts us over the top.

    

 

Edited April 30, 2021 by Buffalo Boy

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

Excellent write up. I hate to say it but I am impressed with how the Jets are doing things now. A lot of mocks had them taking QB and then WR or RB, which would have been the splash, headline grabbing move. That's definitely what past regimes would have done but they got their QB and then went up to get a top lineman to protect him. 

 

With the Phins improving again and the Pats looking much better the East is going to be a real dog fight this season. I think a lot of the rivalries will end up split at the end of the season

 

Yea. AVT is a slam dunk for the Jets. One of my favourite picks of the night. Becton and AVT is a hell of a left side of the line. A big reason Darnold struggled was they never got close to giving him a line. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

    I don’t think it can be overstated that last year, in it’s entirety, on many fronts that effect athletes( and all of us) sucked!!!!

    His mother being a nurse made this a real thing for him. My wife is a nurse and last year was soul sucking for her and therefore me( a person who loves her) This young man/ boy watching his Mom go through that had a negative effect I’m sure. 

     My kid’s a Div 1 runner who quit his team last fall ( and left a tidy sum of scholarship on the table) due to pandemic related restrictions and not competing. This last year really EFFED with peoples heads and motivations. 
    Add to that the other big news of the year ( which we aren’t to discuss) which may have made a huge impression upon him and one can understand not getting his Pro Day right.

    Excuses??? Maybe, but this goes part and parcel with Process and trusting Beane’s judgment.

    I get and am also a little wary of Beane’s track record on DL drafting. However, this was the logical pick at the position. Increased pressure from the front of this defense and our O holding serve may be what puts us over the top.

 

 

I get all that, I do. My partner is an intensive care nurse too. Covid has been hard on many people. I don't have any issue with guys who sat out and I said that when it was discussed here a few weeks ago. Some things are bigger than football and kids of 19/20/21 are being asked to make momentous decisions that were going to affect their family's future one way or another. I just think it is legit to worry about him seemingly being a bit heavy at his pro day. Now I am sure as anything that the Bills asked him about that - Beane referred to the weight and to testing him for body fat etc - if they are satisfied with the answer they got then I 100% trust them on that. After all we saw last year that if they don't they are willing to essentially semi red-shirt a guy as they did with AJ while they work on getting the body right. 

[H2o]

I think the most head scratching pick of the night to me was Green Bay taking Eric Stokes. How many years will they completely ignore the WR position? If I were Rodgers, I would be pissed and want out too. I hope he straight up says "F*** y'all, I'm going to host Jeopardy. Enjoy life with Jordan Love." 

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Morning folks. Day 1 of the NFL Draft is in the books. I wasn't in love with Cleveland as the host. The fan sitting in the chair was stupid. I think I enjoyed ol' Roger's basement better. That said it was nice to have Rich Eisen, who really is a terrific sports anchor, and the crew back. Daniel Jeremiah does a great job to the extent they almost haven't missed Mayock.... although Mike might be available to return before too much longer..... 

 

Right - onto the debrief!

 

The Bills Pick

Look, we all knew edge rusher was the Bills' biggest need. I have been saying for weeks that there were three guys in this class who could come in and make an impact at that spot as a rookie in this scheme: Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips and Gregory Rousseau. For the Bills to be able to stand pat and get one of those three at #30 is a pretty excellent outcome. It also signaled something about where the franchise believes it is, because Brandon Beane (as he often does) told us something he probably didn't mean to tell us last night - the Bills are not longer in pure BPA mode. I believe that there is a very strong argument that if you took the Bills back to the 2018 stage of the rebuild and gave them this board they'd have selected Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and said "we took the best player available." Last night, as Beane said himself, the question was who was the best player available who "affected the passer." This is a Bills team that is close and believes it is close and is looking at which spot is going to make the most significant difference in getting them over the hump. That isn't to say Rousseau was a big reach. He absolutely wasn't. He was the #5 player left on my board (I mistakenly said the #4 player left last night but it was 5am my time, give me a break) and other than JOK who was sticking out the rest are all pretty close. It is also interesting in considering the debates we have had on this board about possible edge options the last number of weeks - including about Jayson Oweh who went one pick later to Baltimore - that Brandon Beane specifically references Rousseau's knack for getting to the Quarterback. Because that is what Oweh lacks, that sort of innate game awareness to turn the opportunities his freakish athleticism provides into production. Put it this way... if Rousseau had backed up his 2019 season with another double digit sack season in 2020 then there is no way he'd have been on the board at #30. He still has some freakish traits even if he isn't that quick twitch, explosive, type. I think it is legitimate to have a slight concern that he didn't show up to his pro day in top shape after sitting out, he was a bit heavy and I am not convinced all that weight is functional weight - but the Bills will get him into their strength and conditioning programme and work on that. But at the end of the day, the production does not lie. Mookie Hawkins calls Brandon Beane "the burglar" well he might just have found another draft day steal. 

 

My Mock

Pretty good night for the mock...

 

- I had 23 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly. Exactly the same as last year and about my average. My best was 26 in 2017;

- 6 exact matches - I was 4/4 through four picks then knew once the Bengals had made the wrong choice at #5 that the next 7 or 8 were going to be wrong but nailed Alijah Vera-Tucker to the Jets and Zaven Collins to the Cardinals. 

- 8 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong - mainly a result of having the receivers stacked wrongly which I knew was going to be the case as soon as #5 was Chase which meant #6 was not him and it messed the order up from there. 

 

Player I was high on....

I've already touched on Owusu-Koramoah who remains on the board and is sticking out. Jacksonville really like the tight end from Penn State and were keen to go all offense but JOK must be tempting for them sitting there at #33 I think he'd fit their system nicely. Beyond him, for the second year in a row I had one first round graded safety and for the second year in a row that player I am surprised that player is still on the board. Last year it was Xavier McKinney and this year it is Trevon Moehrig. It really does show you what NFL teams think about the positional value of safeties. McKinney was really good as a rookie on a Giants defense that was sneaky good down the stretch and Moehrig will also be a fine player in this league. I expect him to hear his name in the first half dozen picks of round 2.  

 

Player I was down on....

I suppose you would say I was slightly down on Jaycee Horn because I had him as my #16 player and yet he was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of my #2 player in the entire class Patrick Surtain - at #8 to the Panthers. However, the reason I had Horn there is because he is more scheme specific than either Surtain or Farley who could basically plug into any defense in the NFL and be great (if Farley is healthy of course) but in Carolina I think Horn will be very, very good indeed. I had three guys graded after round 2 on my board go last night. Payton Turner, Joe Tyron and Eric Stokes. On Tyron I definitely knocked him for being very scheme specific but I was not shocked he snuck into the back of the 1st with Tampa because he is a perfect scheme fit there. Stokes I struggle more with because to me he isn't even the best corner on his own college team in this draft class. And if there is one team that does not deserve the benefit of the doubt when drafting defensive backs in rounds 1 and 2 over the last decade it is Green Bay. Stokes becomes the EIGHTH defensive back taken in rounds 1 and 2 by the Packers since 2015 and yet, as we all saw in the NFC Championship game their problem remains the secondary - of the previous 7 only Jaire Alexander has really been a success. So for all the gnashing of teeth and wailing in horror last year when they spent their first rounder on a guy they hope can be their future at the most important position in sports, the real reason the Packers have failed to support Aaron Rodgers better in the last half decade is their propensity for absolutely wasting early picks on bad defensive backs. Stupid is as stupid does....

 

Biggest shock of the night

To me it was the Bears trading up for Justin Fields. I thought earlier in the process that Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy whose jobs are on the line in 2021 would have to do something about Quarterback. Rolling with Nick Foles and Andy Dalton as a competition might be the most depressing situation of any NFL team. However, after mocking Mac Jones to them in my version 2.0 mock I did a lot of research and background checks on their process - I even managed to exchange messages with a pretty plugged in beat guy in Chicago and came away relatively convinced that they were not going to draft a guy in round 1. I wonder if when Fields slipped out of the top 10 it was just an impulse decision that the value required them to try and make the move. Aggressive and I don't dislike it, but I was shocked. 

 

Worst pick

This should almost be renamed the "John Schneider Award" after he has monopolised this slot in recent years but with the Seahawks not having a first round pick this year he gave someone else a shot. I have already alluded to Payton Turner, the edge rusher from Houston, who the Saints snagged at #28. He was my #106 player. I didn't watch him until late in the process and I only watched 3 games (Tulane, UCF, BYU) - which is the minimum for someone going on my board - but I was not impressed. He plays stiff to me and while I see he definitely fits the height, weight, size profile that the Saints look for he feels like a less explosive, less fluid version of Marcus Davenport who they took a huge swing on when trading up in 2018 from #27 to #14. While he seemed to take a step forward in his sophomore year of 2019 he took a step back in 2020 and as yet I don't believe has had his 5th year option taken up. Just feels to me like a similar swing at a less talented version of the same guy. Confusing.

I also can't let this section pass without a mention for Cincinnati. I get it a lot of folks love Ja'Marr Chase. So do I, I had a high grade on him, he was my #7 overall player, and he was taken at #5, what's the problem? Well for me it is this. I think the Bengals already have a stud young wide receiver in Tee Higgins who I was much higher than most people of this board on last draft season and he had over 900 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie and was on pace for well over 1,000 yards in the games he started with Burrow. But Burrow only started 9 games as a rookie, after being drafted #1 overall on the back of the greatest college Quarterback season of all time. Why, I hear you ask, did Joe Burrow only start 9 times as a rookie? Well, because the Cincinnati Bungles, the most dysfunctional franchise in the sport who in their last 14 non Marvin Lewis coached seasons (both pre and post Magic Marvin) have never had a winning record and have won fewer than six games ten times.... a franchise run by an out of touch owner who doesn't believe in scouting.... a franchise whose last #1 overall Quarterback got to the point of retiring rather than continuing to play for them... fail to understand the absolute basics of this game. You can have Tom Brady, Joe Montona, Peyton Manning and John Elway morphed into one person playing Quarterback... but if they are lying on the turf they can't affect the game. 9 games into his NFL career Joe Burrow, who while not a statue is a conventional pocket passer in style, was writhing around the turf with his anterior cruciate ligament snapped in two because the Bungles can't block to save their lives and haven't been able to for multiple seasons now. And there at #5 sat one of the best left tackle prospects in a decade just waiting to be selected. A guy who could lock down the blindside for the bulk of what is left of Burrow's career. But, no. Not the Bungles. They selected a wide receiver. Joe Burrow might even have encouraged them to select his guy Ja'Marr. Well they will regret this pick. Burrow will get hurt again, it is almost inevitable. Marvin Lewis's time was up in Cincy, it was time to move on. But when people look back in years to come they will realise that making that cesspit somewhat respectable for the best part of 15 years was a hell of a feat. Bad franchises stay bad because they make bad decisions. Well done Cincinnati. You do you. 

 

So after that rant.... .... What's left?

Going into day 2 here is the top 10 BPA by my board:

 

1. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

2. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

3. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

4. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

5. Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

6. Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

7. Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

8. Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

9. Kelvin Joseph^, CB, Kentucky

10. Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa

 

^ - denotes off field concerns

 

Final thought - I expect corner and wide receiver to be in play for the Bills at #61.... I don't expect them to move up at this point but if the board begins to thin out at those two spots I would not rule it out. Enjoy day 2!!

Thoughts on the Moore brothers - Elijah and Rondale - for Bills in Round 2?

[mannc]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Morning folks. Day 1 of the NFL Draft is in the books. I wasn't in love with Cleveland as the host. The fan sitting in the chair was stupid. I think I enjoyed ol' Roger's basement better. That said it was nice to have Rich Eisen, who really is a terrific sports anchor, and the crew back. Daniel Jeremiah does a great job to the extent they almost haven't missed Mayock.... although Mike might be available to return before too much longer..... 

 

Right - onto the debrief!

 

The Bills Pick

Look, we all knew edge rusher was the Bills' biggest need. I have been saying for weeks that there were three guys in this class who could come in and make an impact at that spot as a rookie in this scheme: Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips and Gregory Rousseau. For the Bills to be able to stand pat and get one of those three at #30 is a pretty excellent outcome. It also signaled something about where the franchise believes it is, because Brandon Beane (as he often does) told us something he probably didn't mean to tell us last night - the Bills are not longer in pure BPA mode. I believe that there is a very strong argument that if you took the Bills back to the 2018 stage of the rebuild and gave them this board they'd have selected Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and said "we took the best player available." Last night, as Beane said himself, the question was who was the best player available who "affected the passer." This is a Bills team that is close and believes it is close and is looking at which spot is going to make the most significant difference in getting them over the hump. That isn't to say Rousseau was a big reach. He absolutely wasn't. He was the #5 player left on my board (I mistakenly said the #4 player left last night but it was 5am my time, give me a break) and other than JOK who was sticking out the rest are all pretty close. It is also interesting in considering the debates we have had on this board about possible edge options the last number of weeks - including about Jayson Oweh who went one pick later to Baltimore - that Brandon Beane specifically references Rousseau's knack for getting to the Quarterback. Because that is what Oweh lacks, that sort of innate game awareness to turn the opportunities his freakish athleticism provides into production. Put it this way... if Rousseau had backed up his 2019 season with another double digit sack season in 2020 then there is no way he'd have been on the board at #30. He still has some freakish traits even if he isn't that quick twitch, explosive, type. I think it is legitimate to have a slight concern that he didn't show up to his pro day in top shape after sitting out, he was a bit heavy and I am not convinced all that weight is functional weight - but the Bills will get him into their strength and conditioning programme and work on that. But at the end of the day, the production does not lie. Mookie Hawkins calls Brandon Beane "the burglar" well he might just have found another draft day steal. 

 

My Mock

Pretty good night for the mock...

 

- I had 23 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly. Exactly the same as last year and about my average. My best was 26 in 2017;

- 6 exact matches - I was 4/4 through four picks then knew once the Bengals had made the wrong choice at #5 that the next 7 or 8 were going to be wrong but nailed Alijah Vera-Tucker to the Jets and Zaven Collins to the Cardinals. 

- 8 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong - mainly a result of having the receivers stacked wrongly which I knew was going to be the case as soon as #5 was Chase which meant #6 was not him and it messed the order up from there. 

 

Player I was high on....

I've already touched on Owusu-Koramoah who remains on the board and is sticking out. Jacksonville really like the tight end from Penn State and were keen to go all offense but JOK must be tempting for them sitting there at #33 I think he'd fit their system nicely. Beyond him, for the second year in a row I had one first round graded safety and for the second year in a row that player I am surprised that player is still on the board. Last year it was Xavier McKinney and this year it is Trevon Moehrig. It really does show you what NFL teams think about the positional value of safeties. McKinney was really good as a rookie on a Giants defense that was sneaky good down the stretch and Moehrig will also be a fine player in this league. I expect him to hear his name in the first half dozen picks of round 2.  

 

Player I was down on....

I suppose you would say I was slightly down on Jaycee Horn because I had him as my #16 player and yet he was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of my #2 player in the entire class Patrick Surtain - at #8 to the Panthers. However, the reason I had Horn there is because he is more scheme specific than either Surtain or Farley who could basically plug into any defense in the NFL and be great (if Farley is healthy of course) but in Carolina I think Horn will be very, very good indeed. I had three guys graded after round 2 on my board go last night. Payton Turner, Joe Tyron and Eric Stokes. On Tyron I definitely knocked him for being very scheme specific but I was not shocked he snuck into the back of the 1st with Tampa because he is a perfect scheme fit there. Stokes I struggle more with because to me he isn't even the best corner on his own college team in this draft class. And if there is one team that does not deserve the benefit of the doubt when drafting defensive backs in rounds 1 and 2 over the last decade it is Green Bay. Stokes becomes the EIGHTH defensive back taken in rounds 1 and 2 by the Packers since 2015 and yet, as we all saw in the NFC Championship game their problem remains the secondary - of the previous 7 only Jaire Alexander has really been a success. So for all the gnashing of teeth and wailing in horror last year when they spent their first rounder on a guy they hope can be their future at the most important position in sports, the real reason the Packers have failed to support Aaron Rodgers better in the last half decade is their propensity for absolutely wasting early picks on bad defensive backs. Stupid is as stupid does....

 

Biggest shock of the night

To me it was the Bears trading up for Justin Fields. I thought earlier in the process that Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy whose jobs are on the line in 2021 would have to do something about Quarterback. Rolling with Nick Foles and Andy Dalton as a competition might be the most depressing situation of any NFL team. However, after mocking Mac Jones to them in my version 2.0 mock I did a lot of research and background checks on their process - I even managed to exchange messages with a pretty plugged in beat guy in Chicago and came away relatively convinced that they were not going to draft a guy in round 1. I wonder if when Fields slipped out of the top 10 it was just an impulse decision that the value required them to try and make the move. Aggressive and I don't dislike it, but I was shocked. 

 

Worst pick

This should almost be renamed the "John Schneider Award" after he has monopolised this slot in recent years but with the Seahawks not having a first round pick this year he gave someone else a shot. I have already alluded to Payton Turner, the edge rusher from Houston, who the Saints snagged at #28. He was my #106 player. I didn't watch him until late in the process and I only watched 3 games (Tulane, UCF, BYU) - which is the minimum for someone going on my board - but I was not impressed. He plays stiff to me and while I see he definitely fits the height, weight, size profile that the Saints look for he feels like a less explosive, less fluid version of Marcus Davenport who they took a huge swing on when trading up in 2018 from #27 to #14. While he seemed to take a step forward in his sophomore year of 2019 he took a step back in 2020 and as yet I don't believe has had his 5th year option taken up. Just feels to me like a similar swing at a less talented version of the same guy. Confusing.

I also can't let this section pass without a mention for Cincinnati. I get it a lot of folks love Ja'Marr Chase. So do I, I had a high grade on him, he was my #7 overall player, and he was taken at #5, what's the problem? Well for me it is this. I think the Bengals already have a stud young wide receiver in Tee Higgins who I was much higher than most people of this board on last draft season and he had over 900 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie and was on pace for well over 1,000 yards in the games he started with Burrow. But Burrow only started 9 games as a rookie, after being drafted #1 overall on the back of the greatest college Quarterback season of all time. Why, I hear you ask, did Joe Burrow only start 9 times as a rookie? Well, because the Cincinnati Bungles, the most dysfunctional franchise in the sport who in their last 14 non Marvin Lewis coached seasons (both pre and post Magic Marvin) have never had a winning record and have won fewer than six games ten times.... a franchise run by an out of touch owner who doesn't believe in scouting.... a franchise whose last #1 overall Quarterback got to the point of retiring rather than continuing to play for them... fail to understand the absolute basics of this game. You can have Tom Brady, Joe Montona, Peyton Manning and John Elway morphed into one person playing Quarterback... but if they are lying on the turf they can't affect the game. 9 games into his NFL career Joe Burrow, who while not a statue is a conventional pocket passer in style, was writhing around the turf with his anterior cruciate ligament snapped in two because the Bungles can't block to save their lives and haven't been able to for multiple seasons now. And there at #5 sat one of the best left tackle prospects in a decade just waiting to be selected. A guy who could lock down the blindside for the bulk of what is left of Burrow's career. But, no. Not the Bungles. They selected a wide receiver. Joe Burrow might even have encouraged them to select his guy Ja'Marr. Well they will regret this pick. Burrow will get hurt again, it is almost inevitable. Marvin Lewis's time was up in Cincy, it was time to move on. But when people look back in years to come they will realise that making that cesspit somewhat respectable for the best part of 15 years was a hell of a feat. Bad franchises stay bad because they make bad decisions. Well done Cincinnati. You do you. 

 

So after that rant.... .... What's left?

Going into day 2 here is the top 10 BPA by my board:

 

1. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

2. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

3. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

4. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

5. Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

6. Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

7. Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

8. Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

9. Kelvin Joseph^, CB, Kentucky

10. Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa

 

^ - denotes off field concerns

 

Final thought - I expect corner and wide receiver to be in play for the Bills at #61.... I don't expect them to move up at this point but if the board begins to thin out at those two spots I would not rule it out. Enjoy day 2!!

I’m starting to agree with you about the Bengals’ pick.  Now it appears that they could have taken Sewell and picked up Marshall or Brown at the top of round 2.  That would have been an amazing haul.