Deep Dive into 3 First Round DE Prospects: Who should we pick?

[IgotBILLStopay]

Pass rusher has been our number 1 need since the AFC championship game and McD said it himself - 

 

Quote

“We have to be able to affect the quarterback with a four-man rush. I thought at times we did that and other times we could have been better..... "

 

And we have basically punted during free agency since the elite pass rushers were too rich for us - we did get Obada, but how much of an impact he is going to have is to be seen (I am excited to see what he can do).

 

That means basically it is one of two positions that every observer from here to Timbuctoo expects the Bills to target in the draft (the other being CB 2). Josh Allen basically admitted as much when he said he expects the Bills to go defense heavy in the draft.

 

I have basically 3 Edge Rushers - Kwity Paye, Greg Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips in some detail (I also looked at Jayson Oweh and Azeez Ojulari is somewhat less detail) - and here are my pre-draft thoughts on their relative strengths and weaknesses. These 3 have been the consensus first rounders for over a year now. 

 

Kwity Paye appears to have the highest floor and I love his refugee story and he will be a pretty safe pick - but I have concerns about his ceiling. I think he is a slightly more powerful Shaq Lawson without any shoulder issues that derailed Lawson's rookie campaign. He gets in position for run blocks pretty well - but on the flip side he does get blocked easily despite being in position. He plays a lot lighter than his stated 261 lb weight. My biggest concern about him is that he gets faked too often (like Edmunds on his rookie campaign)- I think he will be a bit of a liability in the run game. He is an athletic freak and keeps fighting to win against the Olineman (so has a great motor). But he does not appear to have an overpowering first move trait that will lead to quick wins at the LOS. And you want a first rounder to not just hold his own but dominate at least once in a while. I usually pay more attention to 10 yard split timings than the 40 yard dash and he was a trifle slow at 1.66 secs. 

 

Here is one highlight video

 

 

Jaelan Phillips is another athletic freak. He has all the right measurables and had an outstanding 2020 campaign with 7 sacks in just 10 games. He has an explosive first step and a decent motor.  I thought speed was a weakness till he ran a 1.59 10 yard split on his pro-day. The only red flag is the medical history. He is young and I am not worried about his wrist injury - looks to have healed well. But concussions are another animal altogether. If it was serious enough for him to quit football (and come back ofc), I am worried. IF medical issues are not a concern - he is the clear no. 1 choice. But the concussion history is real. McD's familiarity with Manny Diaz will hopefully help in the Bills getting some insider info on the medicals - but no coach can ethically say anything bad about his player - so I dont know.

 

Here are his highlights! Drool away.

 

 

 

Greg Rousseau was a consensus top 10 (maybe top 5) pick after the 2019 season. And he has not played a game since then and more importantly has no injury concerns. You dont get 15.5 sacks in a P5 conference by accident folks. That too after becoming a starter only 5 games into the season. 

 

First - the guy is a legit 6'6" with an 83 inch wingspan - see how many times the offensive player thinks he has eluded Rousseau - but still gets run down. That is the wingspan showing - you cant acquire it. Dont get fooled by his slow 40 yard time - that is pretty useless for a D lineman. His 10 yard split was a scorching 1.57 secs. That tells you how quickly he can get off his blocks. And Rousseau has the best motor of all three guys. Several of his sacks are where he actually chases guys down. Let us see Mahomes try to run away from him. And dont knock him for opting out. It was the smart decision given the uncertainty of the college season at the time. He makes immediate money for his family, does not risk injury and still gets drafted early.

 

Coming to the reason the pundits (like PFF) are bailing on him 🙄. His pro day performance across the board - yes his 40 time was slow but that is a useless drill at his position. He bench pressed 21 times - and that is actually fantastic given his nearly 35 inch arms! He also has 11 inch hands to grab the QB and hold on. The broad jump and vertical jump are again completely useless for a Dlineman. The only drill that should cause concern is the 3-cone - which actually does speak to his bending and change of direction ability. He knocked the obstacle down on his first two tries and then was clocked a slow 7.5 on his third attempt. Anyone would be slow running a third time. Even if he is bad on that drill relative to his peers - the game tape doesnt lie. The guy has amazing bend. Apparently he did put on some weight in 2020 - but a summer of conditioning with the Bills staff and he will be in top shape come September. I am a bit old school - I think of every combine standout as Mike Mamula and rely more on game tape. He has the highest ceiling of the three. Take Montez Sweat and JPP and mix them up and you get Rousseau. What is there not to like? Dont believe the pundits on this one and seize the opportunity.

 

 

 

 Bottomline: My pick order would be 1. Greg Rousseau 2. Jaelan Phillips 3. Kwity Paye. If the Bills are convinced Phillips' medicals are not worrisome - I dont mind going 1. Phillips 2. Rousseau and 3. Paye. Phillips has the best burst and Rousseau the best motor. If I am worried about Brady / Brees like QBs who get rid of the ball early - I'd go Phillips. If I am worried about the Wilson / Mahomes / Allen / Lamar type, I go Rousseau. Or jsut wait till one is taken and trade up to take the other.   These two guys are elite talents who would likely have gone top 10 in a normal year.  It is time to shoot the moon folks! We have a decent line but, as McD observed, we need difference makers - not just decent players. And these two are difference makers - way more than Kwity Paye. The offensive draft strength (OLs,  QBs, WRs) in 2021 gives us a shot at one of these two (at least one should be there at 20+) and we should trade up to get him. 

[That's No Moon]

I'm not touching Phillips with a 10 foot pole and I suspect in this year with no medicals and limited interviewing that he will drop out of round one based solely on risk.

[GunnerBill]

They are the only three edge guys in the class who could start or even be heavy rotation guys as rookies in our scheme IMO. Phillips has the highest ceiling to me but the most red flags. Paye is absolutely the safest pick but I agree ceiling is a bit of a question. Rousseau I do worry that he turned up for his pro day having not played in a year and was a bit out of shape. That concerns me. I moved him down my board a point or two after that and I almost never move guys based on combine and pro days. But if he is there at #30 I'd take him. I don't think Paye or Phillips will be. 

[Milanos Milano]

I would take Rousseau. He should be available at 30 and would be happy to have him. 

[mjt328]

Not sure I agree.  In my opinion, Gregory Rousseau is a huge risk.  When I watch his skills on tape, I really question how he projects to the NFL level.  Physically, he is extremely tall and skinny, with really long arms.  Usually these kinds of pass rushers are also fast/quick around the edge.  The best ones also have good hands.  But Rousseau is actually quite slow, and is very raw with his hand-skills.  Strangely, almost all of his sacks come from the 3-Tech (Defensive Tackle) position.  So once he reaches the NFL, he needs to put on lots of muscle/weight and be developed from the ground-up.

 

I think Jaelen Phillips is the best DE of the bunch.  He's got the perfect combination of strength, size, speed, etc.  But in today's NFL, that concussion history is frightening.  One bad knock and he could be out several games.  Or it could end his career.  Hopefully the Bills can get an inside on his medicals (same with Caleb Farley) because he could be a bargain.  Or he could have a really short career...

 

The reason Kwity Paye is ranked first at the position, is because he's the safest of the group.  Highest floor, and among the highest ceiling.  Unfortunately, he will probably be gone by our pick.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, mjt328 said:

Not sure I agree.  In my opinion, Gregory Rousseau is a huge risk.  When I watch his skills on tape, I really question how he projects to the NFL level.  Physically, he is extremely tall and skinny, with really long arms.  Usually these kinds of pass rushers are also fast/quick around the edge.  The best ones also have good hands.  But Rousseau is actually quite slow, and is very raw with his hand-skills.  Strangely, almost all of his sacks come from the 3-Tech (Defensive Tackle) position.  So once he reaches the NFL, he needs to put on lots of muscle/weight and be developed from the ground-up.

 

I think Jaelen Phillips is the best DE of the bunch.  He's got the perfect combination of strength, size, speed, etc.  But in today's NFL, that concussion history is frightening.  One bad knock and he could be out several games.  Or it could end his career.  Hopefully the Bills can get an inside on his medicals (same with Caleb Farley) because he could be a bargain.  Or he could have a really short career...

 

The reason Kwity Paye is ranked first at the position, is because he's the safest of the group.  Highest floor, and among the highest ceiling.  Unfortunately, he will probably be gone by our pick.

 

 

I think this would be an interesting spot for rousseau to land.  You get handed nothing here - playing time is earned.

[Artem Lipatov]

I vote for Rousseau beacause his surname sounds like Russian

[EastTNBillsfan]

I personally don't want any of these except for Paye. I don't think he will be available anywhere near our pick though because he has such a high floor in a very weak edge draft. 

 

I would much rather grab a CB2 like Samuel Jr. Or JOK who can potentially take out someone's TE. 

[ProcessTruster]

HMMM... my understanding is that there has almost never been a DE taken as low as 30 whom has been an impact NFL player.    So I am saying pass on DE as the ones with any real promise will be gone by pick 30.   

 

and I am unwilling to move up and sacrifice picks.   McBeanes need to load the roster with cheap drafted talent bc when Josh's contract hits, lots of key guys will be on their way out, replaced by the guys drafted this week.   Is what it is.   

 

Trust the Process.  Drafting well and often is a big part of it. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

31 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

HMMM... my understanding is that there has almost never been a DE taken as low as 30 whom has been an impact NFL player.    So I am saying pass on DE as the ones with any real promise will be gone by pick 30.   

 

and I am unwilling to move up and sacrifice picks.   McBeanes need to load the roster with cheap drafted talent bc when Josh's contract hits, lots of key guys will be on their way out, replaced by the guys drafted this week.   Is what it is.   

 

Trust the Process.  Drafting well and often is a big part of it. 

Huh? TJ Watt says hello.

[Process]

I read earlier today that Phillips actually "retired" from football for a bit after his third concussion in college.  

 

Id be worried that he gets one or two early in his NFL career and decides to retire at 26 or so, or shortly after signing his second contract. 

 

We've seen some really good players retire young in recent years. 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Process

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

They are the only three edge guys in the class who could start or even be heavy rotation guys as rookies in our scheme IMO. Phillips has the highest ceiling to me but the most red flags. Paye is absolutely the safest pick but I agree ceiling is a bit of a question. Rousseau I do worry that he turned up for his pro day having not played in a year and was a bit out of shape. That concerns me. I moved him down my board a point or two after that and I almost never move guys based on combine and pro days. But if he is there at #30 I'd take him. I don't think Paye or Phillips will be. 

 

Rousseau's pro day physical and athletic comp is right on par with JPP. He's an inch and a half taller, but they are very similar. 

 

I would not hate Rousseau at #30 if he falls. He's going to need some time in an NFL weight room, but imo he has a high ceiling. 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Rousseau's pro day physical and athletic comp is right on par with JPP. He's an inch and a half taller, but they are very similar. 

 

I would not hate Rousseau at #30 if he falls. He's going to need some time in an NFL weight room, but imo he has a high ceiling. 

 

I agree with all that. It is more a character thing. You haven't played for a year people are going to be looking at how you show up on your pro day you would want to come in the best shape possible, right? It was less how he performed and more how he looked. There were reports he was carrying extra weight and looked sluggish. That makes me think what is he going to do with NFL money in his pocket in the offseason? Will he stay in shape or will he Karlos Williams it? 

 

I would be pretty happy with him at #30, but that is a legit nagging doubt.

Edited April 29, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree with all that. It is more a character thing. You haven't played for a year people are going to be looking at how you show up on your pro day you would want to come in the best shape possible, right? It was less how he performed and more how he looked. He was carrying extra weight. That makes me think what is he going to do with NFL money in his pocket in the offseason? Will he stay in shape or will he Karlos Williams it? 

 

I would be pretty happy with him at #30, but that is a legit nagging doubt.

 

I hear that. And I trust the FO to do their due diligence... If I had to guess, getting a 1st round rookie like him into the Bills' looker room with the culture  they've built will do wonders for him. 

[CNY315]

I like Ojulari

Edited April 29, 2021 by CNY315

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Rousseau's pro day did not help him - falling down after doing the vertical jump will do that. Looks to me like he prepared the week before.

 

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by 4BillsintheBurgh

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Oweh is in the mix because of his athleticism alone, but his lack of production is troubling.

 

I like Ojulari a lot, and I would be thrilled if he fell to 30 because of his small stature. He reminds me of a poor man's Von Miller.

 

Carlos Basham has great movement skills for a guy his size. He ran a 4.59 at (6'3") 275 pounds.

 

Ossai reminds me too much of Aaron Maybin and doesn't wow me on tape.

 

Payton Turner is the sleeper of this draft class and I'm hoping he's available in the 2nd or 3rd round. Big guy with a huge wingspan and crazy agility for his size. I thnk he could develop into a Cameron Jordan calibur player.

 

[WMDman]

give me phillips please

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

Ronnie Perkins is an animal, He'll need to add some weight but I think he's definitely being under valued.

[IgotBILLStopay]

38 minutes ago, CNY315 said:

I like Ojulari

Agree he is elite. Perfect fit for a 3-4. Steelers may take him to replace Bud Dupree. Too small to play 4-3 at least as of now, no? So we shd pass on him.

9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

Ronnie Perkins is an animal, He'll need to add some weight but I think he's definitely being under valued.

I like him too - just not in the neighborhood of 30