Gunner's 2021 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[GunnerBill]

**** Warning Long Post ****

 

Here, belatedly, is my annual breakdown of the top Quarterbacks in the draft class. I have only got to the top 5 in any serious detail but I do have some notes on Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask and David Mills that I will try and add to this thread in due course if I get time before Thursday evening. 

 

A reminder of my process for those who are new before we begin: 

 

1. My process is four step as every year:

- Try to identify the runners and riders at Quarterback the summer before;

- Try and watch each at least twice in live game action on tv by mid season (obviously this year this step was not possible given Ohio State started late and NDSU didn't play more than 1 game)

- From new year work on the film out there on each and start to break down for evaluation purposes - for non QBs on my draft board my rule is must have seen 3 full games minimum. For Quarterbacks I set that number at 6;

- Pick up on anyone who came late onto the scene and catch up with their film.  

 

2. I try and balance the games I watch back in the evaluation phase for each prospect. I want to see them at their best and their worst in so far as is possible and against a range of opposition where possible.  

 

3. My grades for each are against an objective scale…. They are not predictions of where players should go in the draft, nor are they relative to the strength of the rest of that year’s draft class.  Mid to late first round does not mean “oh my God Gunner only has player x 25th on his big board”. Second round grade does also not mean I'd never take the guy in the first. The one position where I think you can always justify what might on pure grade be a reach is for a potential franchise Quarterback.

 

Right.... with all that said, let's go to it.... and remember folks, it's only an opinion. Feel free to disagree as vehemently as you like  

 

In no particular order....

 

 

Zach Wilson – BYU – Junior

Games watched: Houston, Boise State, San Diego State, UCF (all 2020); San Diego State, Washington, Utah (all 2019).

 

Pros:

• The kid has plenty of arm and can really zip the ball into tight windows with velocity. He can also adjust his arm angles and throw from unorthodox positions without sacrificing accuracy.
• He is a decisive decision maker. He has a bit of hero ball in him (more to come later) but he makes a decision and he sticks with it. Gets the ball out quickly and very little hesitation on his tape.
• Has some snaps under center and experience running RPO style plays which should both aid his transition to the modern NFL.
• Not phased in a messy pocket. Doesn’t drop his eyes to stare at the rush, can manipulate the pocket effectively, demonstrates good poise and keeps his eyes downfield.
• His accuracy is impressive, especially between the numbers when he puts the ball right where it needs to be.
• Excels against zone coverage and that is an area where there was a noticeable bump in his play in 2020. Really seems to understand what he is seeing and what a defense is doing.  

 

Cons:

• Hero ball. Too many throws into double coverage and every interception bar one that I saw on his film was a ball thrown recklessly downfield into double coverage.
• When throwing to the sideline on the far side of the field - i.e. the opposite side to where the ball is spotted on the hash marks – he seems to lose some of his precision and a lot of balls go incomplete because they are high or low.
• I don’t think he is as good an athlete as he thinks. He is fast once in the open field but he gets tackled and sacked too many times behind the line of scrimmage because he overrates his ability to duke defenders.
• I’d like to see a bit more anticipatory throwing. Hard because often in 2020 BYU receivers were running open but at times they just have to slow ever so slightly because Wilson is a split second late.
• Significant bump in his play in 2020 against relatively weak opposition. Legitimate question about whether that translates, especially early in the NFL. Huge step up.
• Size. I intentionally put it last because it should bother people less than it used to but 6’2 (at best) and 214lbs is not big for an NFL QB. He looks small out there.

 

Conclusion: Zach Wilson is the hardest evaluation of the Quarterbacks at the top of this draft for me. The kid is a gamer and a playmaker and I love his arm, accuracy and poise. His decision making at times is questionable and that gunslinger mentality in a situation (if indeed it is New York) where things could slide early would concern me. But he is something of a cross between Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield to me and if he is developed properly his ceiling is elite. Top 10 grade.

 

- - - - - - 

 

Justin Fields – Ohio State – Junior

Games watched: Penn State, Northwestern, Indiana, Clemson, Alabama (all 2020); Michigan, Rutgers, Clemson (all 2019).

 

Pros:

• Good arm, plenty of velocity but also demonstrates touch when required. Can throw downfield and across the field with success.
• Great athlete. Is going to be a weapon as a runner while the NFL game slows down for him, and he is also a very good thrower when booted out and on the move. 
• Experience under center, experience in shotgun and can run RPOs.
• There are big time NFL throws on his tape. The deep out, the corner route, the back shoulder fade – he can make them all.
• Has the prototypical size and is really thick in the lower body which helps him resist pressure in the pocket, hard to bring down and has a physical playing style that will enamor him to his NFL teammates.
• Throws from a good solid base, and even sets himself nicely when on the move. If anything a little over reliant on that base.

 

Cons:

• Holds the football too long. Led to fumbles in 2019 in particular but I’m not sold on him as a decision maker and there are times when he should throw the ball away rather than take a sack or allow himself to be hit.
• Not enough evidence of him throwing with anticipation. Not a full field reader at this stage and rarely gets beyond his second read.
• When things break down he looks too mechanical in the pocket. As alluded to above he relies on establishing that solid base and there are times in the NFL when things are not perfect and you just have to ad-lib and make a play.
• Accuracy is inconsistent. He isn’t inaccurate as such but there is a tendency to be high on throws that stop receivers in their tracks and limit any potential YAC.
• Seems to get in a rut. Both against Indiana and Northwestern mistakes are followed by mistakes and he needs to be able to re-set quicker and move onto the next play.
• Slight regression in his consistency in 2020 from 2019. The highs are still elite but the lows are a little more concerning.

 

Conclusion: Justin Fields was an exceptional Quarterback at Ohio State who has been there and done it successfully at pretty much the highest level in college football. His play-off semi final performance against Clemson was one of the great performances of the play-off era. I think as an NFL prospect he has a high floor and a reasonably high ceiling but to succeed early I think he needs a Shanahan style offense that simplifies his reads as opposed to a spread type system that requires him to read the whole field. Mid-first round grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Trey Lance – North Dakota State – Red Shirt Sophomore

Games watched: Central Arkansas (2020); Delaware, Montana State, Butler, James Madison, South Dakota (all 2019).

 

Pros:

• Really experienced under center as well as in the gun and runs more play action than your average college quarterback, which makes him well placed to transition to the NFL in 2021.
• Stands tall in the pocket and is willing to get hit to deliver to ball.
• Good athlete who is elusive in the pocket and is a real powerful runner in the open field. He can be a dual threat weapon but is more a chain mover with his legs than a speedster who is going to take it to the house.
• Good arm with a real fast release that generates good velocity and helps him overcome a slightly elongated arm action. Almost looks like a wrist thrower at times.
• Advanced processor who reads the field. He can speed up in this regard still but he regularly gets to 2nd and 3rd reads.
• Set all his own protections and changes protections on the field which will put him ahead of the curve in the NFL.

 

Cons:

• Not what I’d call a precision passer. He is accurate and accurate enough to succeed in the NFL but ball placement can be a little inconsistent and he isn’t going to leave lots of room for YAC.
• Can be slightly late on his throws. Not sure if that is due to the time he takes going through progressions or if it is a result of his delivery or a combination of the two but at times he just gives a defensive back a chance to get a jump. 
• Bails the pocket too often and can get a little bit into ad-lib mode when pressure comes. Needs to trust his protection and stay within the structure of the play.
• I don’t see enough big boy NFL throws on the film. Those real tough NFL concepts, the back shoulder fade, the deep out, the corner route are a little sparse which may be scheme related but is something that gives pause.
• He is a bit risk averse. Throwing picks in his one 2020 appearance might be good for him because in 2019 he played at times as though an interception was always a disaster. Needs to let it rip more.
• Experience, or lack thereof, and poor competition. Would have loved to see him play in 2020 (not his fault North Dakota opted for a 1 game season) to see whether he developed further.

 

Conclusion: Trey Lance is a guy who has a pretty solid floor as a Quarterback able to run an effective NFL offense that incorporates play action, some Quarterback run game and the occasional deep shot. The competition he will face in the league is going to be a pretty big step up for him and he might need to sit early and be developed slowly but with the right team and right structure he can win a lot of football games. Long term my question a little bit is ceiling and whether he has the potential to be a truly elite top 5 type Quarterback. I’m not sold on that. Mid-first round grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Trevor Lawrence – Clemson – Junior

Games watched: Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame (all 2020); Texas A&M, Ohio State, LSU, Virginia (all 2019); Florida State, Alabama, Notre Dame (all 2018).

 

Pros:

• Prototypical size, good arm and high caliber athlete.
• Beautiful throwing motion, zero wasted effort, excellent touch and pinpoint accuracy in the short and intermediate range.
• Exceptional footwork, slides well within the pocket, his drops are precise and his footwork is refined and efficient. Also sells the play action fake as well as any college Quarterback.
• The best thrower of the back shoulder fade I have ever seen in college. Also throws the seam route very well and has no issue hitting a deep out to the open side of the field.
• Timing, rhythm passer that is aided by his ability to make quick decisions and get the ball out to his playmakers with near perfect placement to maximise YAC.
• Huge experience at the highest level of college football, exudes confidence and backs himself to make throws that challenge tight windows.

 

Cons:

• The blitz. Teams that have been able to create pressure with the blitz have caused Lawrence problems. He seems to struggle with identifying the blitzer and can start to get happy feet.
• Occasional miscues when on the move suggest he needs to do most of his damage from inside the pocket rather than in schemes that plan to get him outside.
• While he does get through progressions in the Clemson offense he can still improve as a full field reader. 
• Isn’t going to win with his legs in the NFL and when he is scrambling needs to learn to get down and slide.
• Difficult to project how he will respond to adversity. His football career has been successful at every stage and there will always be bumps in the road in the NFL. His capacity to overcome is unknown.
• Slight question about whether there has been a clear improvement arc from the guy who burst onto the scene in 2018 to the guy who is now the consensus #1 pick.

 

Conclusion: Trevor Lawrence is a high level NFL Quarterback prospect whose even after his freshman year at Clemson would have been the #1 pick in the NFL draft. He is technically as refined a Quarterback as I have ever scouted who does the basics needed to be successful in the league to a very high level. The question marks are about his ability to respond to adversity – both during games when his protection fails, and in his career when he hits bumps in the road – because he has faced so little thus far. If he can overcome that question mark he will be elite. Generational prospect grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Mac Jones – Alabama – Redshirt Junior

Games watched: Georgia, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State (all 2020); Auburn, Michigan (2019).

 

Pros:

• Accurate thrower at the short and intermediate level who has good ball placement and offers YAC opportunities to his playmakers.
• Good pre-snap identifies defenses and particularly good at selecting his match ups in man coverage and getting the ball to the guy most likely to win.
• Stands in under pressure, even against the blitz and is willing to take a hit to get a completion for his team.
• Throws with nice touch especially over the top of cheating up linebackers and into the zone in front of the safeties.
• Excellent placement on quick hitters and passes into the flat to backs.
• Timing thrower who understands the construct of the offense he operated at Alabama in minute detail which gives you confidence in his ability to pickup and learn an NFL playbook.

 

Cons:

• Below average athlete who will not be outrunning NFL defenders even to escape pressure when they beat their blocker.
• Downfield accuracy seems to allude him except for situations where he has a clean pocket and a guy running wide open, which highlights the limitations of his arm which is pretty average.
• General lack of tight window throws on the tape and where a tight window exists his inclination is to hold the ball and wait for his superior skill guys to create that separation.
• Noticed a worrying trend for batted balls at the line. Measured 6’3 but seems to play smaller, maybe influenced by a lack of thickness in the lower half of his frame.
• I don’t see lots of anticipatory throws beyond those that are simple one read timing throws. Tends to lock onto a receiver early rather than simply going where the progression takes him. 
• Relatively inexperienced as a starter despite his success in 2020. Will need to learn to be more poised under pressure and a more refined field reader to succeed at the next level.

 

Conclusion: Mac Jones to me is clearly a tier behind the other members of the “big 5” in this Quarterback draft class. He is smart, accurate and a fierce competitor who can find himself a starting job in the league. The question is whether his natural physical skills and lack of technical refinement will cap his ceiling despite his advanced mental abilities and natural intermediate range accuracy. I think Mac is an NFL starter who will win some games, but I feel he lacks true franchise altering potential. 2nd round grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Okay folks... flame away!!

[Virgil]

C’mon man.  You should warn people if you’re going to make a long post 

[Draconator]

Is this on Audible?

[CNYfan]

I think they are all going top 15.

 

Thank you Gunner, good work.  I would interested to see the second tier, as that may be where someone wants to move up to 30 for one of the "other 3".  

[DCOrange]

Good stuff. Mirrored a lot of my notes as well though I think I'm definitely higher on Fields' accuracy than you. I charted him as comfortably the most accurate in the class (roughly 80% of his passes on target in the games I watched; Wilson is #2 at 73%). I noted that Fields had the ball batted at the line a weirdly high number of times as well, but you're right it was very high with Mac. I'm definitely lower on Wilson than you are, but I don't think your notes on him are off base or anything.

 

I'm not sure if I'm going to finish scouting Kellen Mond like I had hoped; it'll probably depend on how much the second Covid shot knocks me on my ass. Hopefully I'll be fine and I'll be able to wrap his film up. So far I'm finished with the main 5 + Trask and Davis Mills.

[Virgil]

@GunnerBill I’m not quoting that entire thesis.  
 

Do you think all the Mac Jones interest is a smoke screen?  

[TroutDog]

For Trevor, the biggest issue for me, even beyond ‘bumps in the road’ is the fact that there was no discernible progression from frosh season until last year (as you mentioned). It’s the one thing that bothered me. I’m an SEC guy and it stood out to me in his second year…and never changed.  
 

With that being said, the young man clearly enjoys the game and is a true winner. Not to mention the physical abilities. 

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

**** Warning Long Post ****

 

Here, belatedly, is my annual breakdown of the top Quarterbacks in the draft class. I have only got to the top 5 in any serious detail but I do have some notes on Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask and David Mills that I will try and add to this thread in due course if I get time before Thursday evening. 

 

A reminder of my process for those who are new before we begin: 

 

1. My process is four step as every year:

- Try to identify the runners and riders at Quarterback the summer before;

- Try and watch each at least twice in live game action on tv by mid season (obviously this year this step was not possible given Ohio State started late and NDSU didn't play more than 1 game)

- From new year work on the film out there on each and start to break down for evaluation purposes - for non QBs on my draft board my rule is must have seen 3 full games minimum. For Quarterbacks I set that number at 6;

- Pick up on anyone who came late onto the scene and catch up with their film.  

 

2. I try and balance the games I watch back in the evaluation phase for each prospect. I want to see them at their best and their worst in so far as is possible and against a range of opposition where possible.  

 

3. My grades for each are against an objective scale…. They are not predictions of where players should go in the draft, nor are they relative to the strength of the rest of that year’s draft class.  Mid to late first round does not mean “oh my God Gunner only has player x 25th on his big board”. Second round grade does also not mean I'd never take the guy in the first. The one position where I think you can always justify what might on pure grade be a reach is for a potential franchise Quarterback.

 

Right.... with all that said, let's go to it.... and remember folks, it's only an opinion. Feel free to disagree as vehemently as you like  

 

In no particular order....

 

 

Zach Wilson – BYU – Junior

Games watched: Houston, Boise State, San Diego State, UCF (all 2020); San Diego State, Washington, Utah (all 2019).

 

Pros:

• The kid has plenty of arm and can really zip the ball into tight windows with velocity. He can also adjust his arm angles and throw from unorthodox positions without sacrificing accuracy.
• He is a decisive decision maker. He has a bit of hero ball in him (more to come later) but he makes a decision and he sticks with it. Gets the ball out quickly and very little hesitation on his tape.
• Has some snaps under center and experience running RPO style plays which should both aid his transition to the modern NFL.
• Not phased in a messy pocket. Doesn’t drop his eyes to stare at the rush, can manipulate the pocket effectively, demonstrates good poise and keeps his eyes downfield.
• His accuracy is impressive, especially between the numbers when he puts the ball right where it needs to be.
• Excels against zone coverage and that is an area where there was a noticeable bump in his play in 2020. Really seems to understand what he is seeing and what a defense is doing.  

 

Cons:

• Hero ball. Too many throws into double coverage and every interception bar one that I saw on his film was a ball thrown recklessly downfield into double coverage.
• When throwing to the sideline on the far side of the field - i.e. the opposite side to where the ball is spotted on the hash marks – he seems to lose some of his precision and a lot of balls go incomplete because they are high or low.
• I don’t think he is as good an athlete as he thinks. He is fast once in the open field but he gets tackled and sacked too many times behind the line of scrimmage because he overrates his ability to duke defenders.
• I’d like to see a bit more anticipatory throwing. Hard because often in 2020 BYU receivers were running open but at times they just have to slow ever so slightly because Wilson is a split second late.
• Significant bump in his play in 2020 against relatively weak opposition. Legitimate question about whether that translates, especially early in the NFL. Huge step up.
• Size. I intentionally put it last because it should bother people less than it used to but 6’2 (at best) and 214lbs is not big for an NFL QB. He looks small out there.

 

Conclusion: Zach Wilson is the hardest evaluation of the Quarterbacks at the top of this draft for me. The kid is a gamer and a playmaker and I love his arm, accuracy and poise. His decision making at times is questionable and that gunslinger mentality in a situation (if indeed it is New York) where things could slide early would concern me. But he is something of a cross between Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield to me and if he is developed properly his ceiling is elite. Top 10 grade.

 

- - - - - - 

 

Justin Fields – Ohio State – Junior

Games watched: Penn State, Northwestern, Indiana, Clemson, Alabama (all 2020); Michigan, Rutgers, Clemson (all 2019).

 

Pros:

• Good arm, plenty of velocity but also demonstrates touch when required. Can throw downfield and across the field with success.
• Great athlete. Is going to be a weapon as a runner while the NFL game slows down for him, and he is also a very good thrower when booted out and on the move. 
• Experience under center, experience in shotgun and can run RPOs.
• There are big time NFL throws on his tape. The deep out, the corner route, the back shoulder fade – he can make them all.
• Has the prototypical size and is really thick in the lower body which helps him resist pressure in the pocket, hard to bring down and has a physical playing style that will enamor him to his NFL teammates.
• Throws from a good solid base, and even sets himself nicely when on the move. If anything a little over reliant on that base.

 

Cons:

• Holds the football too long. Led to fumbles in 2019 in particular but I’m not sold on him as a decision maker and there are times when he should throw the ball away rather than take a sack or allow himself to be hit.
• Not enough evidence of him throwing with anticipation. Not a full field reader at this stage and rarely gets beyond his second read.
• When things break down he looks too mechanical in the pocket. As alluded to above he relies on establishing that solid base and there are times in the NFL when things are not perfect and you just have to ad-lib and make a play.
• Accuracy is inconsistent. He isn’t inaccurate as such but there is a tendency to be high on throws that stop receivers in their tracks and limit any potential YAC.
• Seems to get in a rut. Both against Indiana and Northwestern mistakes are followed by mistakes and he needs to be able to re-set quicker and move onto the next play.
• Slight regression in his consistency in 2020 from 2019. The highs are still elite but the lows are a little more concerning.

 

Conclusion: Justin Fields was an exceptional Quarterback at Ohio State who has been there and done it successfully at pretty much the highest level in college football. His play-off semi final performance against Clemson was one of the great performances of the play-off era. I think as an NFL prospect he has a high floor and a reasonably high ceiling but to succeed early I think he needs a Shanahan style offense that simplifies his reads as opposed to a spread type system that requires him to read the whole field. Mid-first round grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Trey Lance – North Dakota State – Red Shirt Sophomore

Games watched: Central Arkansas (2020); Delaware, Montana State, Butler, James Madison, South Dakota (all 2019).

 

Pros:

• Really experienced under center as well as in the gun and runs more play action than your average college quarterback, which makes him well placed to transition to the NFL in 2021.
• Stands tall in the pocket and is willing to get hit to deliver to ball.
• Good athlete who is elusive in the pocket and is a real powerful runner in the open field. He can be a dual threat weapon but is more a chain mover with his legs than a speedster who is going to take it to the house.
• Good arm with a real fast release that generates good velocity and helps him overcome a slightly elongated arm action. Almost looks like a wrist thrower at times.
• Advanced processor who reads the field. He can speed up in this regard still but he regularly gets to 2nd and 3rd reads.
• Set all his own protections and changes protections on the field which will put him ahead of the curve in the NFL.

 

Cons:

• Not what I’d call a precision passer. He is accurate and accurate enough to succeed in the NFL but ball placement can be a little inconsistent and he isn’t going to leave lots of room for YAC.
• Can be slightly late on his throws. Not sure if that is due to the time he takes going through progressions or if it is a result of his delivery or a combination of the two but at times he just gives a defensive back a chance to get a jump. 
• Bails the pocket too often and can get a little bit into ad-lib mode when pressure comes. Needs to trust his protection and stay within the structure of the play.
• I don’t see enough big boy NFL throws on the film. Those real tough NFL concepts, the back shoulder fade, the deep out, the corner route are a little sparse which may be scheme related but is something that gives pause.
• He is a bit risk averse. Throwing picks in his one 2020 appearance might be good for him because in 2019 he played at times as though an interception was always a disaster. Needs to let it rip more.
• Experience, or lack thereof, and poor competition. Would have loved to see him play in 2020 (not his fault North Dakota opted for a 1 game season) to see whether he developed further.

 

Conclusion: Trey Lance is a guy who has a pretty solid floor as a Quarterback able to run an effective NFL offense that incorporates play action, some Quarterback run game and the occasional deep shot. The competition he will face in the league is going to be a pretty big step up for him and he might need to sit early and be developed slowly but with the right team and right structure he can win a lot of football games. Long term my question a little bit is ceiling and whether he has the potential to be a truly elite top 5 type Quarterback. I’m not sold on that. Mid-first round grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Trevor Lawrence – Clemson – Junior

Games watched: Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame (all 2020); Texas A&M, Ohio State, LSU, Virginia (all 2019); Florida State, Alabama, Notre Dame (all 2018).

 

Pros:

• Prototypical size, good arm and high caliber athlete.
• Beautiful throwing motion, zero wasted effort, excellent touch and pinpoint accuracy in the short and intermediate range.
• Exceptional footwork, slides well within the pocket, his drops are precise and his footwork is refined and efficient. Also sells the play action fake as well as any college Quarterback.
• The best thrower of the back shoulder fade I have ever seen in college. Also throws the seam route very well and has no issue hitting a deep out to the open side of the field.
• Timing, rhythm passer that is aided by his ability to make quick decisions and get the ball out to his playmakers with near perfect placement to maximise YAC.
• Huge experience at the highest level of college football, exudes confidence and backs himself to make throws that challenge tight windows.

 

Cons:

• The blitz. Teams that have been able to create pressure with the blitz have caused Lawrence problems. He seems to struggle with identifying the blitzer and can start to get happy feet.
• Occasional miscues when on the move suggest he needs to do most of his damage from inside the pocket rather than in schemes that plan to get him outside.
• While he does get through progressions in the Clemson offense he can still improve as a full field reader. 
• Isn’t going to win with his legs in the NFL and when he is scrambling needs to learn to get down and slide.
• Difficult to project how he will respond to adversity. His football career has been successful at every stage and there will always be bumps in the road in the NFL. His capacity to overcome is unknown.
• Slight question about whether there has been a clear improvement arc from the guy who burst onto the scene in 2018 to the guy who is now the consensus #1 pick.

 

Conclusion: Trevor Lawrence is a high level NFL Quarterback prospect whose even after his freshman year at Clemson would have been the #1 pick in the NFL draft. He is technically as refined a Quarterback as I have ever scouted who does the basics needed to be successful in the league to a very high level. The question marks are about his ability to respond to adversity – both during games when his protection fails, and in his career when he hits bumps in the road – because he has faced so little thus far. If he can overcome that question mark he will be elite. Generational prospect grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Mac Jones – Alabama – Redshirt Junior

Games watched: Georgia, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State (all 2020); Auburn, Michigan (2019).

 

Pros:

• Accurate thrower at the short and intermediate level who has good ball placement and offers YAC opportunities to his playmakers.
• Good pre-snap identifies defenses and particularly good at selecting his match ups in man coverage and getting the ball to the guy most likely to win.
• Stands in under pressure, even against the blitz and is willing to take a hit to get a completion for his team.
• Throws with nice touch especially over the top of cheating up linebackers and into the zone in front of the safeties.
• Excellent placement on quick hitters and passes into the flat to backs.
• Timing thrower who understands the construct of the offense he operated at Alabama in minute detail which gives you confidence in his ability to pickup and learn an NFL playbook.

 

Cons:

• Below average athlete who will not be outrunning NFL defenders even to escape pressure when they beat their blocker.
• Downfield accuracy seems to allude him except for situations where he has a clean pocket and a guy running wide open, which highlights the limitations of his arm which is pretty average.
• General lack of tight window throws on the tape and where a tight window exists his inclination is to hold the ball and wait for his superior skill guys to create that separation.
• Noticed a worrying trend for batted balls at the line. Measured 6’3 but seems to play smaller, maybe influenced by a lack of thickness in the lower half of his frame.
• I don’t see lots of anticipatory throws beyond those that are simple one read timing throws. Tends to lock onto a receiver early rather than simply going where the progression takes him. 
• Relatively inexperienced as a starter despite his success in 2020. Will need to learn to be more poised under pressure and a more refined field reader to succeed at the next level.

 

Conclusion: Mac Jones to me is clearly a tier behind the other members of the “big 5” in this Quarterback draft class. He is smart, accurate and a fierce competitor who can find himself a starting job in the league. The question is whether his natural physical skills and lack of technical refinement will cap his ceiling despite his advanced mental abilities and natural intermediate range accuracy. I think Mac is an NFL starter who will win some games, but I feel he lacks true franchise altering potential. 2nd round grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Okay folks... flame away!!

I read that whole thing and you did not bash Edmunds even once which is a clear violation of the new board rules.  I’ve reported this to the mods.

[Coach Tuesday]

Lawrence’s frame would scare me.  He’s built like Rob Johnson, I could totally see him dislocating his ribs by falling on the ball.

[MJS]

I agree with you completely on basically all your points. Nice job! I guess I think the Trevor Lawrence hype is a little high. I don't think he is going to be as good as everyone thinks he will, but certainly he is a great prospect.

 

We'll see if these guys can overcome getting drafted by crappy organizations (aside from whoever lucks out and goes to San Fran).

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Good stuff. Mirrored a lot of my notes as well though I think I'm definitely higher on Fields' accuracy than you. I charted him as comfortably the most accurate in the class (roughly 80% of his passes on target in the games I watched; Wilson is #2 at 73%). I noted that Fields had the ball batted at the line a weirdly high number of times as well, but you're right it was very high with Mac. I'm definitely lower on Wilson than you are, but I don't think your notes on him are off base or anything.

 

I'm not sure if I'm going to finish scouting Kellen Mond like I had hoped; it'll probably depend on how much the second Covid shot knocks me on my ass. Hopefully I'll be fine and I'll be able to wrap his film up. So far I'm finished with the main 5 + Trask and Davis Mills.

 

It is ball placement more than pure accuracy with Fields. I feel like there are too many throws that are completions or have a chance to be completions but that stop his receivers in their tracks because they need to make an adjustment to a ball that if placed correctly could have gone for a big gain. That is something I'd just want to see tidied up.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Virgil said:

@GunnerBill I’m not quoting that entire thesis.  
 

Do you think all the Mac Jones interest is a smoke screen?  

 

I still don't buy it is Mac at #3. Matt Miller insists it is though and he is pretty plugged in generally and especially on 49ers matters.

[Nihilarian]

Hi, refresh my memory and tell me what grade you had for Josh Allen in the 2018 NFL Draft?

 

Was it second or third round?

 

Tell me again that because of his accuracy issues he will never be a top QB in the NFL. That players like Allen "never" overcome those issues.

 

 

 

You weren't alone though. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/27/17289496/2018-draft-winners-losers-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-lamar-jackson-baltimore-ravens

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Hi, refresh my memory and tell me what grade you had for Josh Allen in the 2018 NFL Draft?

 

Was it second or third round?

 

Tell me again that because of his accuracy issues he will never be a top QB in the NFL. That players like Allen "never" overcome those issues.

 

 

You weren't alone though. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/27/17289496/2018-draft-winners-losers-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-lamar-jackson-baltimore-ravens

 

I had a third, but I was not a "never be a top Quarterback, look at his completion percentage" guy. There was a lot more nuance than that to my critique of Josh. Indeed my scouting report said quite clearly that I thought he had "all the tools", and possessed "an elite arm, great size and a tough approach to the game."

 

Here are my pros from my report on Josh:

 

Quote

• Prototypical size and a huge arm that generates incredible velocity and zip on his throws.  
• Exceptional sideline thrower and throws the quick out and the deep out very nicely to both the near side and open side of the field.    
• Mobile and keeps plays alive with his feet. Will pose a scrambling threat to defenses in the NFL.
• Has experience playing under centre and does a really good job of selling play action.  
• Was required to read the whole field as a college Quarterback and to make throws with a higher degree of difficulty than some in this class, especially given he was surrounded by limited receiving talent that struggled to separate.
• Streaky and can catch fire at points in games once he gets a few completions in a row and his confidence starts to flow.  

 

I'd say most of that has shown itself to be true, wouldn't you? My concerns about Josh was how much development was needed for him to get close to his ceiling. He was simply too raw for my tastes. I considered him a developmental Quarterback that you were going to have to spend a top 10 pick to draft. Now in hindsight I certainly should have worried less about what he was and more about what he could become. Indeed I have tweaked my Quarterback grading structure since Josh to try and weight ceiling more heavily in my grading - indeed Wilson and Fields both benefit from that in their grades this draft.  

 

I missed on Josh Allen, I wouldn't have drafted him. Brandon Beane was right, I was wrong. There is no secret about that nor have I ever pretended otherwise. 

[Billy Claude]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I still don't buy it is Mac at #3. Matt Miller insists it is though and he is pretty plugged in generally and especially on 49ers matters.

 

I don't understand what the point of a 49ers smoke screen would be.  Everyone is pretty certain Lawrence and Wilson will go 1-2.  There is almost no chance that the 49ers will trade out of the 3rd spot so what advantage do the 49ers have of trying to fool people?  The only advantage I can possibly see is to waste other teams time. Is that enough?

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

I don't understand what the point of a 49ers smoke screen would be.  Everyone is pretty certain Lawrence and Wilson will go 1-2.  There is almost no chance that the 49ers will trade out of the 3rd spot so what advantage do the 49ers have of trying to fool people?  The only advantage I can possibly see is to waste other teams time. Is that enough?

 

I am not sure how much this info is actually coming out of the 49ers is my thing more than them making it a smokescreen. I think it is one of those things where the draft media is a bit guilty of groupthink and has convinced itself it is Mac Jones. Now maybe they do have really good sources and maybe it is Mac, I guess I just think that is a really big price to give up for him. 

[4merper4mer]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sure how much this info is actually coming out of the 49ers is my thing more than them making it a smokescreen. I think it is one of those things where the draft media is a bit guilty of groupthink and has convinced itself it is Mac Jones. Now maybe they do have really good sources and maybe it is Mac, I guess I just think that is a really big price to give up for him. 

I could see them liking Jones but trading from twelve to three for him?  Why?  Until that trade the highest I saw him going was about 20.  I’m not saying the risk of losing out on him at 12 was zero, but it had to be lower than what they gave up moving to three.....right?

[GunnerBill]

Just now, 4merper4mer said:

I could see them liking Jones but trading from twelve to three for him?  Why?  Until that trade the highest I saw him going was about 20.  I’m not saying the risk of losing out on him at 12 was zero, but it had to be lower than what they gave up moving to three.....right?

 

Exactly my thoughts. But I have been wrong before so.....

[Billy Claude]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sure how much this info is actually coming out of the 49ers is my thing more than them making it a smokescreen. I think it is one of those things where the draft media is a bit guilty of groupthink and has convinced itself it is Mac Jones. Now maybe they do have really good sources and maybe it is Mac, I guess I just think that is a really big price to give up for him. 

 

Probably you are correct.   Either they really are going to take Mac Jones or its just the media repeating itself.  I don't see any purpose of the 49ers floating fake stories about it.

[ExWNYer]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay folks... flame away!!

 

Few, if any (@Blokestradamus?), put in this much time and effort. Flaming away is unnecessary and not an option. Great job and thank you for taking the time to share. 

 

46 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I had a third, but I was not a "never be a top Quarterback, look at his completion percentage" guy. There was a lot more nuance than that to my critique of Josh. Indeed my scouting report said quite clearly that I thought he had "all the tools", and possessed "an elite arm, great size and a tough approach to the game."

 

I'd say most of that has shown itself to be true, wouldn't you? My concerns about Josh was how much development was needed for him to get close to his ceiling. He was simply too raw for my tastes. I considered him a developmental Quarterback that you were going to have to spend a top 10 pick to draft. Now in hindsight I certainly should have worried less about what he was and more about what he could become. Indeed I have tweaked my Quarterback grading structure since Josh to try and weight ceiling more heavily in my grading - indeed Wilson and Fields both benefit from that in their grades this draft.  

 

I missed on Josh Allen, I wouldn't have drafted him. Brandon Beane was right, I was wrong. There is no secret about that nor have I ever pretended otherwise. 

 

The one thing that nobody can quantify...no matter how much they scout or research...is a kid's heart, drive, and desire to win and to be the best. Josh has that intangible/internal makeup which is a big reason for his unicorn-like improvement, IMO. He has that 'it' factor that you just can't teach or coach up and we all are the beneficiaries of that, thankfully. Like many here, I was hoping when he was drafted that we were taking 'Right Josh' Rosen. Thank God that Beane and company were in charge and not any of us. Unlike many, however, I didn't lose my shite when Allen's name was called. I was disappointed but thought, "I hope they got it right with this kid." Too many were blinded by their own agenda to even give Allen a chance. They were convinced that he sucked and would never get better. Period. Patience has gone the way of the dinosaur, especially regarding NFL QBs. Anyway, thanks again for the analysis. Cheers!