3 Year Anniv: "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself"

[TBBills Fan]

21 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I like the old saying "anyone with half a brain can make any statistic say whatever they want".

I like the very true...

 

"Statistics never lie, but liars use statistics."

[folz]

7 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Totally Agree - my feelings on the JA opinion deal is that he was the perfect example of Analytics versus Scouting.  
 

The traditional scouting side loved his arm, legs, mind, and the offense he came from.  They looked at him as unmolded clay that could be shaped into a franchise QB with a little patience.

 

The analytics guys put him in their made up formulas and everything points to a draft bust.  The analytics guys over the last few years had been making major inroads into the sport and Josh became that flash point.  
 

If he succeeds it shows there are major analytics flaws in their data models that traditional scouting can overcome and if he fails it was another dagger in the heart of traditional scouts.  Since the majority of opinion writers are not traditional scouts and do not have traditional access to the players - they rely on the analytics and therefore mostly fall on that side and therefore Josh must fail.

 

The old school scouts and guys like Mel Kiper were much more positive because they they have seen these players succeed and he fits the perfect success model that scouts drool over.

 

Josh Allen just became the analytics guys worst nightmare because not only is he an outlier, but he is a huge outlier suggesting their data and models need correction.  This came on the huge analytics failure in the Cleveland front office and I think was just to much for guys like Sam Monsoon and others at PFF and other analytics firms - Rather than accepting that models needed further enhancements- it was easier to push the bust narrative and continue to hope for failure and to downplay every positive thing he does.

 

Very perceptive post...Thanks!

 

A lot of great takes and discussion in this thread. 👍

[billsfan1959]

24 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

He struggled as a passer his rookie year.  This mirrored his college struggles with accuracy.  He got better the past 2 seasons.  

 

I'm not sure what you are having a problem with that many pointed out that he struggled as an accurate passer (the evaluations of him were fairly detailed) and this was evident as soon as he started in Buffalo--he struggled to complete more than 50% 0f his passes--so at that point the assessments were accurate.  This isn't really debatable.  

 

If you are now saying that their were diffuse assessments that "he never would be" and accurate passer.....yeah, I don't remember that being the overwhelming conclusion.

 

I do not disagree with you in regard to the fact that Allen struggled with a low completion percentage at Wyoming and, as a result, the overwhelming assessment with him was that he had accuracy issues. That was the primary narrative about Allen coming out of college: He was not an accurate passer. And I do not disagree that his struggles with completion percentage his rookie year mirrored his college struggles.

 

My argument is that it is a superficial assesment to look at a low completion percentage and automatically attribute it to accuracy issues, when there are so many variables involved. In my opinion, I believe Allen's low completion percentage was due far more to other variables than to his ability to throw the ball accurately. Again, it is just my opinion.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I do not disagree with you in regard to the fact that Allen struggled with a low completion percentage at Wyoming and, as a result, the overwhelming assessment with him was that he had accuracy issues. That was the primary narrative about Allen coming out of college: He was not an accurate passer. And I do not disagree that his struggles with completion percentage his rookie year mirrored his college struggles.

 

My argument is that it is a superficial assesment to look at a low completion percentage and automatically attribute it to accuracy issues, when there are so many variables involved. In my opinion, I believe Allen's low completion percentage was due far more to other variables than to his ability to throw the ball accurately. Again, it is just my opinion.

I agree completely.  It was obvious to me that he could hit any target any time.  He was inaccurate because he was making decisions late.  As he got more comfortable making decisions, he got more accurate. 

[The Wiz]

Also found this one that I remembered from late last season

 

 

[GoBills808]

Always my guy

[Royale with Cheese]

30 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Always my guy

 

You got lucky.

[DrDawkinstein]

Gonna leave this here too as a fun read.

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/nyjets/comments/8f7qv3/bills_traded_up_for_josh_allen_upvote_party/

 

Jets fans celebrating on Draft Night in 2018 and laughing at us. Aged like milk.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Gonna leave this here too as a fun read.

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/nyjets/comments/8f7qv3/bills_traded_up_for_josh_allen_upvote_party/

 

Jets fans celebrating on Draft Night in 2018 and laughing at us. Aged like milk.

 

 

 

Who was the QB as polarizing as Allen?

[DrDawkinstein]

26 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Who was the QB as polarizing as Allen?

 

Not sure? Was there a specific post/comment you are asking about?

[BigDingus]

23 hours ago, K-9 said:

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. 
 

The only question mark about Allen that mattered was his sheer inexperience at the game of football in general and at quarterback in particular. Luckily, he possesses the intelligence and aptitude to compensate. And he’s gonna be that much better when he finally figures it out.

 

I mean, obviously that wasn't the only question that mattered to many people lol

The article isn't even wrong, it just points out there's a difference in opinion between people in the league who project him as a 1st rounder & those talking heads on the outside who don't understand it.

 

Then it concludes :

"Allen will have a chance to be an NFL quarterback. One side will be right. The other side will ignore the result as a fluke and continue unfazed."

 

So far, that's basically true too. 
 

IMO, I've been looking back on old JA articles with a sense of pride in his work. He is an anomoly. There haven't been QB's with similar HS-JUCO-D1 careers with numbers & play like his who improved so dramatically. Even crazier, the organization known for botching picks & failing to develop QB's ended up being the team to accomplish this transformation. 

I actually think dismissing the question marks does a disservice to Allen. I think people who say things like "he was always this good, just needed better WR's!" or similar things do a disservice to him. What he's managed to do through his determination & sheer work ethic is nothing short of INCREDIBLE, and it was that sacrifice & dedication that should be praised.

He's done something no other QB like him has done. If he didn't have so many question marks & so much room to improve, it wouldn't be so incredible.

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Not sure? Was there a specific post/comment you are asking about?

 

I forgot a word lol.

 

Who was the LAST QB as polarizing as Allen? 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I forgot a word lol.

 

Who was the LAST QB as polarizing as Allen? 

 

Ha! That does change things.

 

Maybe right in the same draft, Lamar Jackson. But before that... Johnny Manziel? Cam Newton?

[BuffaloRebound]

Looking back, there was a lot of arrogance from the Josh doubters.  There’s differences of opinion and then there’s people who speak with certainty about things that are borderline impossible to predict.  I mean you have a guy like Gil Brandt who’s done this for 60 years rank Josh his 7th overall prospect while some internet loser claims Josh has almost no chance to succeed in the NFL.  

[K-9]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I'd say all these teams missed on Allen:  Browns, Giants, Jets, Broncos, Bears, Cardinals, Washington, Chargers. Bengals, Dolphins.   They all needed QBs.   Bengals actually traded OUT of position, and several others didn't bother to trade up.   Bills knew they wanted Allen, and they and the Jets were the only teams that put themselves in position to get the guy they wanted.    

 

The point is not that everyone knew Allen had potential.   The point is that no one other than the Bills figured out how likely it was that he'd actually reach his potential.   That's the point that everyone missed, and it surprises me that front offices aren't better at figuring that out.   

 

I just posted in the thread about Motor.   There's one intense guy.   I'm sure that's why the Bills drafted him.   Just like they drafted Allen because they saw that intensity.   What were the other teams looking at?

Browns were higher on Mayfield, Giants were higher on Barkley, Jets were higher on Darnold, Broncos were higher on Chubb, Colts had Luck. And those players were rated higher by most teams anyway. That’s not a knock on Allen. Any team picking after 7 had no chance, but the Bears and 49ers were set at QB anyway, and Arizona didn’t have the draft capital to move up higher than 10. But none of that changes the fact that Allen was considered a consensus top 10 pick in the draft by scouts and GMs after his junior year. And if the Bills hadn’t taken him, he wasn’t getting past the Cardinals at 10, anyway. 
 

A QB need not be rated a better player than another to justify his being selected higher in the draft. QBs are unique in that regard given the nature of the position, which is another reason why most in the league had Allen going in the top 10. 
 

But yeah, I don’t know what some scouts and GMs are thinking when it comes to picking some guys. We have the benefit of hindsight, I guess. They all look good at the time, though. 
 

 

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I do not disagree with you in regard to the fact that Allen struggled with a low completion percentage at Wyoming and, as a result, the overwhelming assessment with him was that he had accuracy issues. That was the primary narrative about Allen coming out of college: He was not an accurate passer. And I do not disagree that his struggles with completion percentage his rookie year mirrored his college struggles.

 

My argument is that it is a superficial assesment to look at a low completion percentage and automatically attribute it to accuracy issues, when there are so many variables involved. In my opinion, I believe Allen's low completion percentage was due far more to other variables than to his ability to throw the ball accurately. Again, it is just my opinion.

 

 

Well clearly that's not all they were looking at for their assessment---did you ever read even one redraft scouting report on him?  There's no way you would keep repeating this if you had.  

 

Other factors?  He played in the Mountain West--not a hotbed of NFL talent. Only 70 of 1700 players on active rosters at the start of 2020 season. That's it's like out there.

 

Here's a typical assessment:

 

"Had the nation’s highest grade on passes thrown when scrambling. Had the highest percentage of big-time throws in the nation in 2016. Does not work well in the quick game. Often vacates the concept quickly in order to break the pocket and create outside of structure. Misses far too many throws. Had the 24th-highest percentage of negatively-graded throws in the nation and 20 turnover-worthy throws tied for 22nd. Sees the game much better when outside the pocket, but must improve his processing ability within the pocket.

His footwork was not good, his mechanics weren't good, his decision making was sketchy---these are the things that lead to a sub 60% rate of completions.  This was all very well documented. You must have missed it way back when you concluded they were all wrong (by only looking at the completion %).

 

"I do not disagree with you in regard to the fact that Allen struggled with a low completion percentage at Wyoming and, as a result, the overwhelming assessment with him was that he had accuracy issues. That was the primary narrative about Allen coming out of college: He was not an accurate passer."

 

They were all overwhelmingly correct.  You have provided no evidence to the contrary.  But he fixed these clear deficits, and now here he is...and it's ok.

[ganesh]

9 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

He struggled as a passer his rookie year.  This mirrored his college struggles with accuracy.  He got better the past 2 seasons.  

 

I'm not sure what you are having a problem with that many pointed out that he struggled as an accurate passer (the evaluations of him were fairly detailed) and this was evident as soon as he started in Buffalo--he struggled to complete more than 50% 0f his passes--so at that point the assessments were accurate.  This isn't really debatable.  

 

If you are now saying that their were diffuse assessments that "he never would be" and accurate passer.....yeah, I don't remember that being the overwhelming conclusion.

He struggled as a rookie QB because

* he had no weapons 

* he had no running game 

* he had no OL protection

* he was too raw and not ready for the NFL yet

 

What he benefited:

* Same coaching staff for the 1st 4 seasons of his career

* front office loading the offense with better protection and weapons.

* his running game which created about 10 TDs.

* he was better (by miles) than his back ups 

* Coaching staff allowing him to learn through his mistakes

* The INTENSITY and the WILL to succeed - All on Josh Allen

[Chandler#81]

On 4/26/2021 at 3:31 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself

If this works, then stats really are for losers, I guess.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

 

 

De-licious.

The kid’s a loser. Hope we’re smart enough not to Draft him..

[OrtonHearsaWho]

18 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Gonna leave this here too as a fun read.

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/nyjets/comments/8f7qv3/bills_traded_up_for_josh_allen_upvote_party/

 

Jets fans celebrating on Draft Night in 2018 and laughing at us. Aged like milk.

 

 

 

Thank you for this...that was a fun read.  Imagine being a Jets fan and feeling like you could dunk on another team for anything at all!

 

I will confess that I was one of the detractors in 2018 and I have never been happier about being incredibly wrong.

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, OrtonHearsaWho said:

 

Thank you for this...that was a fun read.  Imagine being a Jets fan and feeling like you could dunk on another team for anything at all!

 

I will confess that I was one of the detractors in 2018 and I have never been happier about being incredibly wrong.

You and me both and I even admit to typing Wrong Josh somewhere when he got drafted. Heck I even said last preseason that Josh likely never be a top 5 QB as never expected him to be as great as he was last year, I thought at best he'd be a top 10-15 guy.