3 Year Anniv: "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself"

[LeviF]

Like many others I expected to hear "Rosen" after "Josh" from Goodell that night.  I don't think I had any real reaction other than "well we'll see."

 

A week later I was foaming at the mouth telling all my friends how awesome Josh Allen was gonna be because I watched some highlight videos to talk myself into it 🤣I went so hard my buddies bought me an Allen jersey as a joke.  Now who's laughing, #######s?!

[Albany,n.y.]

9 hours ago, Limeaid said:

I thought Ravens were going to trade up to get Allen.  He is type of QB they usually signed - tall, strong, big armed and perfect replacement QB who sits a year.

 

Never figured Ravens were going to take a RB as QB, generally not their style.  Too Tebow-ish.

 

Darnold seemed to type teams liked and not want. Another CA QB.

 

Could not figure out Baker Mayfield.  Texas QB did not seem to fit AFC East.

 

I was worried we would get Rosen as leftover and generally hate California QBs and completely unsuitable for AFC East.

 

 

 

 

It's So-Cal QBs, not Cal QBs.  Josh, Brady, & Rodgers are all California QBs.  While Josh & Brady went to colder places in college, Rodgers is from northern California & went to Cal-Berkeley.  Josh is now a So Cal guy, he spends his off seasons in L.A.   

[Punching Bag]

8 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

It's So-Cal QBs, not Cal QBs.  Josh, Brady, & Rodgers are all California QBs.  While Josh & Brady went to colder places in college, Rodgers is from northern California & went to Cal-Berkeley.  Josh is now a So Cal guy, he spends his off seasons in L.A.   

 

You are right, Southern CA is as different from Northern CA as is WNY is with downstate NY.

[Kwai San]

Wow, wow, and WOW.

 

So in order right now, today.....mind you a Bills fan doing the ordering.

 

1. JA (hasn't hit ceiling yet)

2. Lamar (sliding, had THAT year)

3. Baker (could go either way)

4. Sam (could be done)

5. Rosen (IS Done)

 

Tell me I am wrong.........man I was pumped beyond all belief the Bills selected JA.  The bar I was in was in disbelief at that pick but I was a happy camper.  Still am 😁.

 

I love you Josh Allen!!!!!

[ganesh]

18 hours ago, K-9 said:

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. 
 

The only question mark about Allen that mattered was his sheer inexperience at the game of football in general and at quarterback in particular. Luckily, he possesses the intelligence and aptitude to compensate. And he’s gonna be that much better when he finally figures it out.

Correct.  Mel provided the right context for the lower completion %.

   -  Josh was a 22-26 throws per game guy instead of the 40+ throws that top college program QBs throw.  Hence, margin of error is very high when you are in the 22-26 range. 

   -  Josh lost 4 guys on offense to the NFL in his senior year.  Laramie is not a football wiz program to be able to reload immediately after losing 4 NFL quality players. 

 

What he also added (which the Bills loved) -  Josh was ultra competitive and demonstrated that in every game at Wyoming. 

 

Josh success is not abnormal.

[Buffalo Boy]

12 hours ago, Logic said:

I confess: I bought into all of the anti Josh Allen hype. I was team "anyone but Josh".

Moreover, aside from all the stuff from national pundits and draftniks, it was the Bills' previous two 1st round quarterback selections that scared me off of Allen: both were guys with great physical talent and big arms, but questionable accuracy and decision making. I saw Allen as just another JP Losman, just another EJ Manuel.

I had no idea he was a running threat. I had no idea that he had the heart and will of a lion and the unbridled hatred of losing necessary to become great. Instead, I coveted the throwing accuracy of Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen. I also did not foresee the rapid shift the NFL would take toward mobile QBs who can improvise and make their best plays out of structure, and away from immobile, pure pocket passers. I was looking for a QB like the ones I had seen succeed from 1998 to 2018, rather than anticipating which way the league was heading. 

When Goodell announced the pick, the split second between when he said "Josh..." and "....Allen" seemed to last an eternity. I was immediately depressed.

It didn't take me long to come around. As soon as we drafted him, I said "welp, he's a Bill now, so I'm gonna root like hell for him no matter what". I turned on "every throw" cut-ups from every college game of his I could find. Watching the footage and asking myself "what did Beane and McDermott see in this guy? What did they see that I (and so many others) did not?", I began to see his throws through new eyes. Maybe (probably) it was just a case of talking myself into liking him rather than being down in the dumps, but by the end of all those clips, I thought "This kid could be something". By the end of the Vikings game in his rookie season, I was all in.

I've never, ever been so glad to be so wrong.

 

   This is me to a T.

   If we are all being honest , one year ago most of us were trying to still talk ourselves into him being a “ Top Tier” QB in this league.

    I wrote something like,  If he can just convert on 50% of the long balls he missed last year he will have made a major stride. Then he comes out in the Miami game and starts dropping dime after dime on the deep crossers and I’m like 😱.

    Even after the four game start he had before getting injured many on here still doubted him and chalked it up to a flash in the pan. I think it’s just a symptom of having been teased and abused for the previous  two decades.

   For me personally, I have enjoyed the heck out of watching and hearing sports personalities have to finally come around and give him props, some very grudgingly.

[billsfan1959]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Nope.  It wasn't "garbage".  His rookie year mirrored the concerns noted in his predraft evals (and data).

 

He got a lot better over 2 years. 

 

Many of those "predraft concerns," particularly the "accuracy concern," were based on superficial analyses with no indepth look at underlying variables unique to Allen or his circumstances at Wyoming. In his rookie year in the NFL, he was less experienced than almost any QB ever drafted in the top 10, had absolutely nobody at the QB position (coach or player), at least initially, with real mentoring abilities at the NFL level, and was surrounded by almost historically bad offensive talent. 

 

If his rookie year mirrored anything, it was the continuation of evaluating his play at a superficial level. 

 

He has gotten a lot better over the last two years, not coincidentally, as his experience and the level of talent around him have increased. However, it really shouldn't have come as a big surprise to anyone who cared to take the time to really look at his play in an objective and honest way.

 

I doubt anyone in the Bills organization responsible for drafting him is surprised.

[Logic]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

   This is me to a T.

   If we are all being honest , one year ago most of us were trying to still talk ourselves into him being a “ Top Tier” QB in this league.

    I wrote something like,  If he can just convert on 50% of the long balls he missed last year he will have made a major stride. Then he comes out in the Miami game and starts dropping dime after dime on the deep crossers and I’m like 😱.

    Even after the four game start he had before getting injured many on here still doubted him and chalked it up to a flash in the pan. I think it’s just a symptom of having been teased and abused for the previous  two decades.

   For me personally, I have enjoyed the heck out of watching and hearing sports personalities have to finally come around and give him props, some very grudgingly.

Yeah.

Despite his great start last year, his play in the Chiefs, Titans, Patriots, and Jets games that followed had me thinking that the beginning of the year was an outlier. Then the Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos, second Pats, and second Dolphins games happened. After seeing the full body of work of his season and the statistics at year's end, it was undeniable that he had made a jump. Then he won two playoff games, one of which he played just okay in and one of which I felt he played really well in. It's not easy to win playoff games in this league, and he led his team to two wins.

I'll be honest: before I can feel totally, completely, 100% secure in him being as elite as he now seems to be, I'd like to see him repeat last year's success this year, with fans in the stands and when everybody sees him coming. Regardless, I can see that the floor for him is pretty high -- and the very least, he's a QB you can win with. But in order for me to be completely sure that he's top tier, elite, best-in-the-league caliber going forward, I'd like to see him do it again.

Edited April 27, 2021 by Logic

[Orlando Tim]

The title of the article is stupid because the math is not given context. In fact while reading about Josh and his short throws they don't mention the short throws are due to no time at all. But the math does not predict him, the human made algorithm does. But truly if you look at the last 20 years of first round pick QBs you have many more missed based on these numbers than hits 

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yeah.

Despite his great start last year, his play in the Chiefs, Titans, Patriots, and Jets games that followed had me thinking that the beginning of the year was an outlier. Then the Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos, second Pats, and second Dolphins games happened. After seeing the full body of work of his season and the statistics at year's end, it was undeniable that he had made a jump. Then he won two playoff games, one of which he played just okay in and one of which I felt he played really well in. It's not easy to win playoff games in this league, and he led his team to two wins.

I'll be honest: before I can feel totally, completely, 100% secure in him being as elite as he now seems to be, I'd like to see him repeat last year's success this year, with fans in the stands and when everybody sees him coming. Regardless, I can see that the floor for him is pretty high -- and the very least, he's a QB you can win with. But in order for me to be completely sure that he's top tier, elite, best-in-the-league caliber going forward, I'd like to see him do it again.

Well, I agree, it's not yet time to send Josh to the Hall of Fame.  We're all so excited about 2020, but the truth is that to be one of the greats, Allen has to do it year after year and continue to get better.  For example, there was a thread about someone's boss said let's see how good Allen is on the road when the stands are full.  It's a good point.   Allen succeeded last season in quiet stadiums; the greats win when the crowd is in their face.  

 

But I'm happy to say that it didn't take the second half of the 2020 season for me to conclude not only that the Bills got the right Josh but that they probably got the best guy in the draft.   I was convinced by the end of his rookie season.  It was completely obvious to everyone by then that he had an extraordinary set of physical tools, and he'd already demonstrated the quality of his leadership.  Add all of the comments that were coming out of One Bills Drive, from front office, coaches, and teammates, too many comments to ignore, comments that said he's a hard worker, he's a leader, and he's smart, and there wasn't any real question for me about where Josh was going.  

 

However, the interesting question to me is not who among us saw it first or how long it took us to see it.  What's interesting to me is that at least six, and probably eight or ten collections of coaches, scouts, and GMs didn't see it before the draft.  The guy's physical abilities were obvious in college - we all saw that when we started watching his college highlights before or after the draft.   No team should have missed that.  And it seems that his intangibles were obvious to anyone who took the time to look for them.  We've heard or read about how Allen seemed a little aloof or something when the Bills first met with him, but then they went out to dinner with him and everyone began to see the intangibles.  It's not like they were hidden - it's apparently pretty easy to get to know Allen and to see what makes him tick.  It doesn't sound like it was hard for the Bills personnel to see that Allen was smart, a hard worker, a competitor.   The Bills knew it by draft night - they were sure.  That's why they traded up.   The Browns missed it, the Giants missed it, the Jets missed it, the Broncos - my heavens, the Broncos, how could they look at their roster and look at Allen and go in some other direction?

 

It's amazing to me that the professional evaluators were so bad at figuring it out before the draft.   And Allen's case is just the most recent, and fortunately we were on the right side of it.   I often wonder how the Bills and others missed on Ngata, how several teams missed on JJ Watt, how so many teams missed on Aaron Rodgers.    In retrospect it just doesn't seem that hard to see, but teams do miss.

[Mr. WEO]

40 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Many of those "predraft concerns," particularly the "accuracy concern," were based on superficial analyses with no indepth look at underlying variables unique to Allen or his circumstances at Wyoming. In his rookie year in the NFL, he was less experienced than almost any QB ever drafted in the top 10, had absolutely nobody at the QB position (coach or player), at least initially, with real mentoring abilities at the NFL level, and was surrounded by almost historically bad offensive talent. 

 

If his rookie year mirrored anything, it was the continuation of evaluating his play at a superficial level. 

 

He has gotten a lot better over the last two years, not coincidentally, as his experience and the level of talent around him have increased. However, it really shouldn't have come as a big surprise to anyone who cared to take the time to really look at his play in an objective and honest way.

 

I doubt anyone in the Bills organization responsible for drafting him is surprised.

 

Absolutely no one was NOT taking into consideration his circumstances at Wyoming. The fact that he was a consensus 1st round pick, top 4 QB (and at least 2 mainstream outlets had him as a possible overall pick) prove you aren't correct with that claim.  

 

His rookie year was like his college career--with the same criticism that were certainly NOT based on "superficial" evaluation.  You can't credibly argue otherwise. 

 

 

 

 

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I agree, it's not yet time to send Josh to the Hall of Fame.  We're all so excited about 2020, but the truth is that to be one of the greats, Allen has to do it year after year and continue to get better.  For example, there was a thread about someone's boss said let's see how good Allen is on the road when the stands are full.  It's a good point.   Allen succeeded last season in quiet stadiums; the greats win when the crowd is in their face.  

 

But I'm happy to say that it didn't take the second half of the 2020 season for me to conclude not only that the Bills got the right Josh but that they probably got the best guy in the draft.   I was convinced by the end of his rookie season.  It was completely obvious to everyone by then that he had an extraordinary set of physical tools, and he'd already demonstrated the quality of his leadership.  Add all of the comments that were coming out of One Bills Drive, from front office, coaches, and teammates, too many comments to ignore, comments that said he's a hard worker, he's a leader, and he's smart, and there wasn't any real question for me about where Josh was going.  

 

However, the interesting question to me is not who among us saw it first or how long it took us to see it.  What's interesting to me is that at least six, and probably eight or ten collections of coaches, scouts, and GMs didn't see it before the draft.  The guy's physical abilities were obvious in college - we all saw that when we started watching his college highlights before or after the draft.   No team should have missed that.  And it seems that his intangibles were obvious to anyone who took the time to look for them.  We've heard or read about how Allen seemed a little aloof or something when the Bills first met with him, but then they went out to dinner with him and everyone began to see the intangibles.  It's not like they were hidden - it's apparently pretty easy to get to know Allen and to see what makes him tick.  It doesn't sound like it was hard for the Bills personnel to see that Allen was smart, a hard worker, a competitor.   The Bills knew it by draft night - they were sure.  That's why they traded up.   The Browns missed it, the Giants missed it, the Jets missed it, the Broncos - my heavens, the Broncos, how could they look at their roster and look at Allen and go in some other direction?

 

It's amazing to me that the professional evaluators were so bad at figuring it out before the draft.   And Allen's case is just the most recent, and fortunately we were on the right side of it.   I often wonder how the Bills and others missed on Ngata, how several teams missed on JJ Watt, how so many teams missed on Aaron Rodgers.    In retrospect it just doesn't seem that hard to see, but teams do miss.

Regarding the two bolded portions...

I agree with the overall point. But to be fair to league evaluators, Allen's running ability was kind of a surprise. It didn't show up QUITE so clearly on tape. He could evade pressure and move the chains, sure, but I don't think anyone saw just HOW dynamic a runner he was. Even Josh HIMSELF said that he didn't know he could run like that. I believe Beane and McDermott are also both on record saying that Josh's running ability kind of caught them by surprise. As another poster said earlier in this thread, his running ability may be THE thing that allowed him to stay on the field and keep learning on the job until the passing part came along.

As for the Broncos...I will never, ever, in a million years understand how Elway passed on Josh Allen. Laramie, Wyoming, is a two hour drive from Denver. Two hours! He was right in their back yard! The Broncos, out of all teams, had the most opportunity to really dig into this kid and get to know him...and for some reason, they didn't. For some reason, John Elway, who everyone knows loves big, strong, fast QBs with howitzer arms...decided that Josh Allen wasn't for him! The ONE time in his GM life that he decided to pass on such a supremely physically talented quarterback, and boy did he pick the wrong time to do it. Then, by the very next draft, he was back in the "big armed QB" saddle again. Now, maybe Drew Lock will turn out to be a good one, but I sincerely doubt that there's a Broncos fan or executive alive right now that wouldn't rather have Josh Allen. The Broncos' lack of interest in Josh Allen will forever confound me, but boy am I thankful for it!

[K-9]

23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

... It's amazing to me that the professional evaluators were so bad at figuring it out before the draft.   And Allen's case is just the most recent, and fortunately we were on the right side of it.   I often wonder how the Bills and others missed on Ngata, how several teams missed on JJ Watt, how so many teams missed on Aaron Rodgers.    In retrospect it just doesn't seem that hard to see, but teams do miss.

Per the bold and just to clarify, when you say “professional evaluators” are you referring to actual pro scouts, GMs, etc., or are you referring to the talking head pundits and draftniks who make predictions in a vacuum? Because Allen was projected to be a consensus top 10 pick in the 2018 draft after his his junior year at Wyoming. His success is not a surprise to NFL talent evaluators in the least. 

[Punching Bag]

I saw Allen as perfect QB for Ravens - they had a starter which was aging but had similar attributes - which would give him time to develop and be schooled in NFL style football.  It was clear the head coach of Wyoming was a good coach but had limited resources.  What I missed was Ravens' philosophy of using a shot gun rather than sniper rifle and not being willing to spend resources to move up in draft.

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, Logic said:

Regarding the two bolded portions...

I agree with the overall point. But to be fair to league evaluators, Allen's running ability was kind of a surprise. It didn't show up QUITE so clearly on tape. He could evade pressure and move the chains, sure, but I don't think anyone saw just HOW dynamic a runner he was. Even Josh HIMSELF said that he didn't know he could run like that. I believe Beane and McDermott are also both on record saying that Josh's running ability kind of caught them by surprise. As another poster said earlier in this thread, his running ability may be THE thing that allowed him to stay on the field and keep learning on the job until the passing part came along.

As for the Broncos...I will never, ever, in a million years understand how Elway passed on Josh Allen. Laramie, Wyoming, is a two hour drive from Denver. Two hours! He was right in their back yard! The Broncos, out of all teams, had the most opportunity to really dig into this kid and get to know him...and for some reason, they didn't. For some reason, John Elway, who everyone knows loves big, strong, fast QBs with howitzer arms...decided that Josh Allen wasn't for him! The ONE time in his GM life that he decided to pass on such a supremely physically talented quarterback, and boy did he pick the wrong time to do it. Then, by the very next draft, he was back in the "big armed QB" saddle again. Now, maybe Drew Lock will turn out to be a good one, but I sincerely doubt that there's a Broncos fan or executive alive right now that wouldn't rather have Josh Allen. The Broncos' lack of interest in Josh Allen will forever confound me, but boy am I thankful for it!

That's an interesting point about his running that I've sort of ignored as people talked about it here.  Thanks for making it directly enough that even I get it.  You're right about the running helped him stay on the field as a rookie, which gave him the opportunity to learn and progress.  And it really is quite surprising that his running ability didn't show up in college.  

 

Allen's well on his way to becoming a classic tough, from-the-pocket field general, like Ben and Peyton.  His mobility probably will always be part of his game, but it will decline as years go by.   I'm expecting that in a few years he will be beating everyone with his brain more than he ever beat teams with his legs.  

6 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Per the bold and just to clarify, when you say “professional evaluators” are you referring to actual pro scouts, GMs, etc., or are you referring to the talking head pundits and draftniks who make predictions in a vacuum? Because Allen was projected to be a consensus top 10 pick in the 2018 draft after his his junior year at Wyoming. His success is not a surprise to NFL talent evaluators in the least. 

I mean the pros - scouts, coaches, GMs.  Sure, they knew he was a talent.   Any amateur could see that he was a talent.  What I meant was that they couldn't see that he was so likely to achieve his potential.   Ten teams, at least, thought he was a long shot.   I mean, do you think there is anyone in the Browns front office who, if he was being really honest, is happy that they took Mayfield over Allen?   

[K-9]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I mean the pros - scouts, coaches, GMs.  Sure, they knew he was a talent.   Any amateur could see that he was a talent.  What I meant was that they couldn't see that he was so likely to achieve his potential.   Ten teams, at least, thought he was a long shot.   I mean, do you think there is anyone in the Browns front office who, if he was being really honest, is happy that they took Mayfield over Allen?   

I’d be interested in knowing what 10 teams didn’t think Allen was a consensus top 10 pick in the 2018 draft because the dozen or so scouts and others I’ve talked to were pretty adamant in their evaluations after Allen’s junior season in college that he would be a top 10 in the 2018 draft, which isn’t surprising because rare arm talent like that is never ignored. It’s like catnip.
 

I doubt you’d find anyone in the Browns organization or anywhere else who thought Allen was a better prospect than Mayfield at the time of the 2018 draft and I suspect they’d have a hard time admitting it even now, but if they were honest, they’d have to concede Allen has been the better QB overall over his first three seasons. 

[billsfan1959]

57 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Absolutely no one was NOT taking into consideration his circumstances at Wyoming. The fact that he was a consensus 1st round pick, top 4 QB (and at least 2 mainstream outlets had him as a possible overall pick) prove you aren't correct with that claim.  

 

His rookie year was like his college career--with the same criticism that were certainly NOT based on "superficial" evaluation.  You can't credibly argue otherwise. 

 

Like the criticism from plenty of "experts" that he wasn't an accurate passer and never would be? Right, nothing superficial about that evaluation. Please.

 

I did argue otherwise with many posters on this board during his entire rookie season and into his 2nd season. As it turns out, my arguments were credible.

 

Feel free to believe what you want to believe.

[hondo in seattle]

I usually don't like threads that rehash old news.  But this subject never gets old.  

 

It's amusing to me how much faith some of the analytics guys place in their numbers.  There are always outliers.  There's always a context that's unquantifiable.  NFL talent evaluation is going to remain as much art as science for the foreseeable future.  

 

Physically, Allen had skills that weren't fully honed.  Mentally, he possessed a "growth mindset" that would enable him to develop those skills.   Beane saw this.  The stat geeks didn't because they weren't evident in the numbers.    

 

Prescient note at the end of the article:  "Allen will have a chance to be an NFL quarterback. One side will be right.  The other side will ignore the result as a fluke and continue unfazed."

 

And that's exactly what happened.  The analytics guys (like the author) see Allen as a fluke, not a damning testimonial about the limitations of their methodology.  

 

Edited April 27, 2021 by hondo in seattle

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I’d be interested in knowing what 10 teams didn’t think Allen was a consensus top 10 pick in the 2018 draft because the dozen or so scouts and others I’ve talked to were pretty adamant in their evaluations after Allen’s junior season in college that he would be a top 10 in the 2018 draft, which isn’t surprising because rare arm talent like that is never ignored. It’s like catnip.
 

I doubt you’d find anyone in the Browns organization or anywhere else who thought Allen was a better prospect than Mayfield at the time of the 2018 draft and I suspect they’d have a hard time admitting it even now, but if they were honest, they’d have to concede Allen has been the better QB overall over his first three seasons. 

Well, I'd say all these teams missed on Allen:  Browns, Giants, Jets, Broncos, Bears, Cardinals, Washington, Chargers. Bengals, Dolphins.   They all needed QBs.   Bengals actually traded OUT of position, and several others didn't bother to trade up.   Bills knew they wanted Allen, and they and the Jets were the only teams that put themselves in position to get the guy they wanted.    

 

The point is not that everyone knew Allen had potential.   The point is that no one other than the Bills figured out how likely it was that he'd actually reach his potential.   That's the point that everyone missed, and it surprises me that front offices aren't better at figuring that out.   

 

I just posted in the thread about Motor.   There's one intense guy.   I'm sure that's why the Bills drafted him.   Just like they drafted Allen because they saw that intensity.   What were the other teams looking at?

[Mr. WEO]

13 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Like the criticism from plenty of "experts" that he wasn't an accurate passer and never would be? Right, nothing superficial about that evaluation. Please.

 

I did argue otherwise with many posters on this board during his entire rookie season and into his 2nd season. As it turns out, my arguments were credible.

 

Feel free to believe what you want to believe.

 

 

He struggled as a passer his rookie year.  This mirrored his college struggles with accuracy.  He got better the past 2 seasons.  

 

I'm not sure what you are having a problem with that many pointed out that he struggled as an accurate passer (the evaluations of him were fairly detailed) and this was evident as soon as he started in Buffalo--he struggled to complete more than 50% 0f his passes--so at that point the assessments were accurate.  This isn't really debatable.  

 

If you are now saying that their were diffuse assessments that "he never would be" and accurate passer.....yeah, I don't remember that being the overwhelming conclusion.