AstroNotes Draft projections

[somnus00]

Wouldn't be in love with this, but I'd be good with this draft. Hits all of our needs with good and/or intriguing players. I'd probably go with Bledsoe over Sherwood in that spot. But we're talking late rounders here.

[HardyBoy]

5 minutes ago, essential said:

if we draft Tyler Shelvin i'll be happy.  i don't care if we over-draft him, he's a need and a very good player.  he'd hopefully also allow Oliver to flourish.  play behind Star for a year then he's your future 1T/NT.

 

I heard someone somewhere talking about how this is a super shallow DT draft and a deep draft at other positions, so we shouldn't take a DT, which I thought was opposite.

 

You take the DT early, because there are only a few worth drafting and then you draft one of the depth positions later and you get a player who is taken much higher most drafts (Gabriel Davis is the perfect example).

 

Like it's potentially ok to draft a guy a round or two early, so you don't have to trade back up, and use those other picks to draft the depth players.

 

That said, position scarcity absolutely plays into the opportunity cost of drafting a player at a position with more depth early, and is part of the value calculation.

Just now, HardyBoy said:

 

I heard someone somewhere talking about how this is a super shallow DT draft and a deep draft at other positions, so we shouldn't take a DT, which I thought was opposite.

 

You take the DT early, because there are only a few worth drafting and then you draft one of the depth positions later and you get a player who is taken much higher most drafts (Gabriel Davis is the perfect example).

 

Like it's potentially ok to draft a guy a round or two early if the position is super thin, so you don't have to trade back up, and use those other picks to draft the depth players.

 

That said, position scarcity absolutely plays into the opportunity cost of drafting a player at a position with more depth early, and is part of the value calculation.

 

[The Jokeman]

8 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

 

I heard someone somewhere talking about how this is a super shallow DT draft and a deep draft at other positions, so we shouldn't take a DT, which I thought was opposite.

 

You take the DT early, because there are only a few worth drafting and then you draft one of the depth positions later and you get a player who is taken much higher most drafts (Gabriel Davis is the perfect example).

 

Like it's potentially ok to draft a guy a round or two early, so you don't have to trade back up, and use those other picks to draft the depth players.

 

That said, position scarcity absolutely plays into the opportunity cost of drafting a player at a position with more depth early, and is part of the value calculation.

 

DT is shallow in terms of top end talent, there are solid backup guys in the later rounds. 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

Why doesn’t he come here anymore?

Because there are certain ppl that dont know just how to accept information in and not #######s

 

We keep running those people off for some reason

55 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

We don't have a pick in Round 4 tho... 🤷‍♂️

Doc....I think that gets explained in his draft

 

That is where I am at to.   Either a player high on our board at 30 or trade down a bit and pick up that extra 4th.

[John from Riverside]

38 minutes ago, essential said:

if we draft Tyler Shelvin i'll be happy.  i don't care if we over-draft him, he's a need and a very good player.  he'd hopefully also allow Oliver to flourish.  play behind Star for a year then he's your future 1T/NT.

Shelvin is my pick to.....but to be fair there are like 4 guys in this draft that could fit the bill.   Shelvin blocks a lot of son and would let Oliver eat.......and all of a sudden people would starting loving Edmunds I have no idea why

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Basically differences with Scott.  Outside of his training camp series which was wonderful, he liked to post about content on his "Draftek" web site (he is Editor-in-Chief).  Scott asks people who come here to not post re-directs of traffic to their own websites.

 

Eric Turner of Cover1 used to post here also, and stopped for the same reasons.  Well, that and some of us disagree with him, which he doesn't always take too well.

 

We have lost some good contributors through that policy but "Scott's House, Scott's Rules" and I understand where he's coming from.

their loss. 
they could post the same “thoughts” in any thread w/o links to their own sites.   
 

 

[FLFan]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Basically differences with Scott.  Outside of his training camp series which was wonderful, he liked to post about content on his "Draftek" web site (he is Editor-in-Chief).  Scott asks people who come here to not post re-directs of traffic to their own websites.

 

Eric Turner of Cover1 used to post here also, and stopped for the same reasons.  Well, that and some of us disagree with him, which he doesn't always take too well.

 

We have lost some good contributors through that policy but "Scott's House, Scott's Rules" and I understand where he's coming from.

Thanks for the info Hapless.  I have always wondered .  I always assumed he was chased away by the rude and ignorant.  I agree, “Scott’s House”, but I do miss Astros contributions.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, FLFan said:

Thanks for the info Hapless.  I have always wondered .  I always assumed he was chased away by the rude and ignorant.  I agree, “Scott’s House”, but I do miss Astros contributions.  

 

Me too, but as pointed out up-thread, one could post the same stuff without linking in one's own site if one wishes to. 

Or pay to advertise it here.  🤷‍♂️

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

 

I heard someone somewhere talking about how this is a super shallow DT draft and a deep draft at other positions, so we shouldn't take a DT, which I thought was opposite.

 

You take the DT early, because there are only a few worth drafting and then you draft one of the depth positions later and you get a player who is taken much higher most drafts (Gabriel Davis is the perfect example).

 

Like it's potentially ok to draft a guy a round or two early, so you don't have to trade back up, and use those other picks to draft the depth players.

 

That said, position scarcity absolutely plays into the opportunity cost of drafting a player at a position with more depth early, and is part of the value calculation.

 

Have to be careful with this logic.  If you pick the "best" DT, particularly 1T, early and pass over (potentially much) better players at other positions, you can be left with a DT who isn't good enough to start or maybe even contribute and also have missed out on a potential starter or significant contributor at another position.

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Shelvin is my pick to.....but to be fair there are like 4 guys in this draft that could fit the bill.   Shelvin blocks a lot of son and would let Oliver eat.......and all of a sudden people would starting loving Edmunds I have no idea why

The Bills do need to improve the DL, including DT.  Just because Shelvin is (very) big, does not mean that he will be a game changer for this defense.  He is basically a 1 year starter who was held back by weight issues previously.  Do you want to gamble that once he gets paid he will stay in shape?  Do you want to say that a block eater is worth a late 3rd over potentially better players elsewhere?  

 

I am not here to say that I know the answer, just throwing out points to consider.

 

[John from Riverside]

15 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Have to be careful with this logic.  If you pick the "best" DT, particularly 1T, early and pass over (potentially much) better players at other positions, you can be left with a DT who isn't good enough to start or maybe even contribute and also have missed out on a potential starter or significant contributor at another position.

The Bills do need to improve the DL, including DT.  Just because Shelvin is (very) big, does not mean that he will be a game changer for this defense.  He is basically a 1 year starter who was held back by weight issues previously.  Do you want to gamble that once he gets paid he will stay in shape?  Do you want to say that a block eater is worth a late 3rd over potentially better players elsewhere?  

 

I am not here to say that I know the answer, just throwing out points to consider.

 

I would gamble a third rounder on him

[GunnerBill]

Love Astro. Don't love his mock. Dickerson I like but he is a bit high floor, low ceiling. Just say no to Melifonwu and that is way too high for Wilson IMO.

[just1hugheser]

Interesting takes, I think he is a little off on where some guys will go but only time will tell.  I like Dickerson and Davis but I think I'd rather have Creed who still has a high floor but has more potential and versatility than Dickerson.

 

I agree about liking Shaka Toney better than No-oh-Oweh-Jose!(all together now).

 

And I like taking a swing at Dayo Odeyingbo(oh-Dang-Bo) later, he'll fall because of the injury but is prototype from a size/length perspective

[Thurman#1]

More Kindig, just out.

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Love Astro. Don't love his mock. Dickerson I like but he is a bit high floor, low ceiling. Just say no to Melifonwu and that is way too high for Wilson IMO.

Agree - that draft would be a disaster and it would cause real problems down the line as the Bills lock up Allen (and possibly Edmunds) long-term and have a cap crunch as a result.  They’d get next to nothing out of that entire draft and the impact would linger for awhile.

 

We are entering the era where Beane and his highly-touted scouting department need to hit on their picks (including late rounders) to stay successful.  Astro’s draft would set the team back significantly.

[Thurman#1]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Love Astro. Don't love his mock. Dickerson I like but he is a bit high floor, low ceiling. Just say no to Melifonwu and that is way too high for Wilson IMO.

 

 

His method, involving the idea that watching who the Bills visit is predictive, and grading the interviews, has worked pretty well in the past.

 

He doesn't have the same picks in the video above, but does proceed from the same foundation.

Edited April 23, 2021 by Thurman#1

[DJB]

Dean is a super nice guy, helped me get my gig working for drafttek as a prospect profile writer. 

[Gordio]

On 4/21/2021 at 5:02 PM, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

their loss. 
they could post the same “thoughts” in any thread w/o links to their own sites.   
 

 

 

 

It is actually our loss.  Astro was one of the most knowledgeable posters on the board and the most knowledgeable poster on this board when it came to the Draft and training camp insights.  Guy knows his football.  

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Gordio said:

 

 

It is actually our loss.  Astro was one of the most knowledgeable posters on the board and the most knowledgeable poster on this board when it came to the Draft and training camp insights.  Guy knows his football.  

It would appear he chose to leave because he could not link his own site here?  not because of others disagreeing with his takes?  that indeed is a shame, losing the knowledge he could have contributed here, oh well, life goes on..., 

[glazeduck]

Have a lot of respect for Dean and the amount that he grinds. I also do not have the time, energy, resources, or ability to put together anything resembling what he did for that writeup. All that said, that's a ton of work for a bunch of very 'meh' picks. 

 

To me, this amounts to:

• 1 average starter in Dickerson
• A high-upside gamble on Melifonwu 
• 2 big fatties that can maybe form a solid rotation in Wilson and Tonga at an exceedingly replaceable position
• A journeyman/meh depth guy in Toney
• An interesting longshot type guy in Sherwood
• and 2 doubtful to make the rosters in Eubanks and Tommy Doyle

I'd be pretty disappointed if this was our haul. Again, big respect to Dean for the work he put in, just not loving the output...

[WideNine]

On 4/21/2021 at 3:22 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Me too, but as pointed out up-thread, one could post the same stuff without linking in one's own site if one wishes to. 

Or pay to advertise it here.  🤷‍♂️

 

I have seen sites that monetize redirects as more of a formal partnership on content....

 

Less of a poaching stance between parties and more of a collaborative agreement where content and services verticals do not compete.

 

TBD is well-entrenched and has a great reputation (tip the hat to actively engaged and even-keeled moderation) so... hard to fault how Scott is maintaining his "house".

 

It has been interesting watching the evolution from the rudimentary D&C message board to what it is today.

 

I will visit other sites, but having bounced around the country I always feel like TBD is my WNY home.