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Who are the 49er's going to take at 3


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Well I'll tell you where I think things stand:

 

Last week the odds were:

Mac Jones -300

Justin Fields +250

Trey Lance +350

 

This would imply odds of Jones going #3 @ 75%.

 

This week its:

Fields -125

Mac Jones +150

Fields +450

 

This would imply odds of Fields going #3 @ about 55%.

 

I still can't get over Schefter outright saying Mac Jones will be the pick @ #3......and then kind of walking it back, but not really.  I also know Warren Sharp believes it's Mac, as does Peter King, Chris Simms (Kyle Shanahans friend), & Michael Lombardi. I also know before the media scolded Dan Orlovsky for his less than rosy view of Fields, Greg Cosell was not a big fan of his in terms of a prospect.

 

I think +150 on Mac Jones as it stands now is terrific value & I expect him to become the favorite again as the draft nears.

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Every mock draft has them taking Jones. 

 

If Shanahan told his friends what they were doing with the pick, would you fire him if you were the GM or owner?

Allen was not consensus 4th rated QB.  He was the consensus most raw prospect even when compared to Jackson.  Their was zero consensus on the QB order going into that draft.  There were several mocks that had Darnold or Rosen going #1 overall.  There were others that saw Mayfield fall to 4th taken. Some folks thought the Jets would take Allen and even others thought the Broncos could be in the mix for Allen as the #3 QB taken.  

And what makes you think Mac Jones is 4th on SF's board?

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With all the Mac Jones vs Fields discussion going on, I am pretty sure it will be Trey Lance.

They are definitely taking a QB and have been very forthright with that plan. They aren’t hiding anything except which QB it will be. They are doing a ton of work on all of the top QBs. Also, you don’

Do you think a real friend is going around on radio and giving away his buddy’s draft picks?

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Well, if they don’t trade Jimmy G. to NE which is a real possibility,(Think about the big WR’s and TE’s they picked up to make Jimmy’s job easier and BB trusts him) the. I would say Lance.  He gets a red shirt year and has a high ceiling.  If they don’t trade draft day Jimmy G., then my guess is Fields.

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2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Chris Simms is a personal friend of Kyle Shanahan, and he has been adamant that Mac Jones will be the pick. Obviously Shanahan hasn't told him for sure but Simms knows how he thinks about the game. Shahanan almost won a Super Bowl with Matt Ryan. If he sees Mac Jones having that potential it makes sense.

 

I can only watch Florio on Fridays, when Simms is off on his 3-day weekends. I just can't take his drunken sailor speaking style. That, and he doesn't know nearly as much as he thinks he does.

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2 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Dear God...Kittle & Pitts!! Always call Kittle Kittle and bits:wub:

I have a bad feeling about Kittle being Johnny Broken.  Weak bones or something. He’s such a badass, but I see injuries every season for him unless he changes they way he plays

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5 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

With all the Mac Jones vs Fields discussion going on, I am pretty sure it will be Trey Lance.

That was my thought too they must love his upside..although I think fields does slide despite all the cheerleading ESPN is doing for the guy I think some scouts just watch the Indiana game and think...yikes imagine what NFL Defenses will do to the guy 

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Y’all think the niners are drafting Jones? They and the media are just hyping him up so the jets get confused and pick him instead of Wilson. Jets will always jet come draft time. 

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9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Chris Simms is a personal friend of Kyle Shanahan, and he has been adamant that Mac Jones will be the pick. Obviously Shanahan hasn't told him for sure but Simms knows how he thinks about the game. Shahanan almost won a Super Bowl with Matt Ryan. If he sees Mac Jones having that potential it makes sense.

 

 

Mac Jones is a better athlete than people give him credit for.  I think I read somewhere that his 40 time is faster than Allen's.  That really surprised me.  

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10 hours ago, NewEra said:

You don’t trade all of those picks for a TE.  They will take Lance or Mac imo. I thought fields was the choice but Mike Lombardi says Fields won’t be the pick. He could be wrong, but I think they go with Lance.

 

they will not draft a weapon for jimmy g.

 

 

The Bears will tell you (now) that you don't trade up to get a kid with one full year starting for your QB.

 

Frame it another way: which player has the best chance to make an immediate and lasting impact on the 49ers Offense?  Hands down it's Pitts.  Jimmy G isn't the best, but he isn't awful either.  Lance wouldn't be competent to take over Shanahan's Offense for years, maybe.  That's worse than a Daniel Jones pick/move.

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12 hours ago, wagne591 said:

People are saying the draft starts at pick 3 with the 49er's, but who will they pick? When Shanahan took over in 2017, the roster was in good shape except for a QB in which he traded for his guy in Jimmy Garoppolo and 2 years later they were in the Superbowl (2019 Season).  So why would the 49er's give up on Garoppolo so fast or are they. Maybe they are making smoke screens and have someone else in mind to get them over the hump once again. And at 12 they wouldn't be in line to get their guy. By essentially trading up to the #3 spot that is like the pick to pick anyone in the draft other then T. Lawrence, or the kid our of BYU (you go Jets waste another pick). They have set themselves up to get Jimmy G. a major weapon on the outside in any of the three WR's they like, or pick K. Pitts TE out of Florida which would be a major weapon in their offense and it would give the 49ers two major TE threats to push the ball down the field in Pitts and Kittle (that would be a scary duo). So why is everyone saying the 49er's are going to pick a QB when they already have a proven one at the helm if he can stay healthy. This reminds me of the movie the Draft Day where the Browns had their guy and he was worried about getting traded or let go....(Pitts No Matter What). If that happened that would make the whole first round much more entertaining and stress free because I don't want Pitts going to an AFC East team. Thoughts.....

 

 

You don't trade three first rounders plus for a non-QB. It would be utterly crazy. Like if the house is offering you one-to-one odds on picking one number on a roulette wheel, and you take it and bet all your money on it ... that kind of crazy.

 

So I say there's no doubt they go QB there.

 

Which one? My guess is Mac. It's not that confident a guess, though. Based on what kind of QB he's gravitated towards and succeeded with in the past.

 

The only alternative to a QB I can seriously imagine is that they trade out from three and collect picks and a guy they like better than they would have liked the #12 pick. But IMO that's wildly unlikely.

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9 hours ago, Logic said:

I’m just absolutely not buying the Mac Jones thing. No way they gave up that much capital for Jones. It has all the makings of a heavily pumped smokescreen, similar to how many outlets insisted the Dolphins were taking Herbert in the week leading up to draft day last year.

 

Its Fields or Lance. Has to be.

 

 

What is the purpose of a smokescreen there?

 

Think they're going to smokescreen the Jags or Jets out of Lawrence or Wilson? That's not happening.

 

So the only other reason for a smokescreen would be if they're now looking to trade back down again. IMO unless they already have something lined up, they're not going to smokescreen a team into Jones. What most people are saying about Jones isn't so much that he's the better QB as that he's the better QB for Shanahan's offense.

 

I can't see a situation where a smokescreen there would help them much. The three picks in front of the Dolphins last year were significantly more fluid than the two in front of SF this year. I don't know, I can't see it. I think it's people genuinely believing it's Mac, though possibly mistaken.

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10 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Mac Jones should be a 3rd round pick.

 

I have him as a 2nd rounder but wouldn't fault anyone for having him in the 3rd. 

 

I was not a fan of Tua at all last year. I thought he was a project and I had Burrow and Herbert rated as elite QB's. 

 

Jones is worse than Tua and Tua completely flopped year 1. Why anyone would want to take Jones in the first round let alone top 10 is beyond me. 

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41 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

 

Mac Jones is a better athlete than people give him credit for.  I think I read somewhere that his 40 time is faster than Allen's.  That really surprised me.  

He's an okay athlete. He definitely isn't faster than Allen though, nor is he anywhere near as comfortable moving as Allen is. Alabama reported that Mac ran like a 4.68 or something (Allen was in the 4.7s), but it sounds like all the scouts that were on hand had Mac in the 4.8's, which is still fine. Hell, Jameis was barely under a 5.0 and he still hurt defenses with his legs all the time. You don't have to be fast to be an effective runner at the QB position; it's just that read options will likely be a part of the offense under any of the other 1st round QBs, whereas running will be an absolute last resort for Mac.

53 minutes ago, The Governor said:

Lance only played 1 game last season? There’s no way you can draft him in the top 5.

Seems pretty likely that Jamarr Chase will also be going top 5 after not playing at all this year. It's not Lance's fault his school didn't have a season.

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I've looked over dozens of "big board rankings" across the Internet, from ESPN and NFL.com to The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus.

All of them have Trevor Lawrence as the #1 QB.  All of them have Mac Jones as the #5 QB, behind some order of Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Trey Lance.  In fact, prior to the 49ers talk, most mock drafts expected Jones to fall outside the Top 10 and possibly even the Top 15.  

 

Now, it's not totally surprising that an NFL team would have Jones ranked higher than the media guys.  That happens every single year with various draft prospects.  But what I DO think is surprising, is seeing a team like the 49ers make a MASSIVE trade-up (2022 and 2023 first rounders) well over a MONTH before the draft.  Before these QBs even had pro-day workouts.  By simply waiting until draft night and watching how the picks fall, it's very likely that Jones would have fallen to them at #12.  At the very least, the 49ers may have been able to move up less spots and given up less picks.

 

Think about this.  Basically we are saying Kyle Shanahan is one of the ONLY people in the football world who ranks Jones above Fields/Lance.   AND Shanahan views the gap between those QBs to be so huge, that he refuses to settle for anyone but Jones.  AND despite having a solid QB on the roster already in Jimmy G., he was willing to sacrifice two future drafts to ensure nobody could trade ahead and grab Jones.  Not sure I'm buying all this.

 

/////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

My feeling is that people in the media have assigned a "type" to Shanahan:  Kirk Cousins.  Matt Ryan.  Jimmy Garoppolo.

These are the types of QBs he's had success with, so he couldn't possibly be looking at something else.  

 

But I think Shanahan sees an evolution coming in the NFL.  Arguably the best four QBs in the NFL in 2020 were Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson.  All big-armed, strong, athletic, mobile and able to extend plays.  Tom Brady has always been the anomaly, and is now the last remaining dinosaur from the pocket-passer era.  One he's gone, that style of quarterbacking may become a thing of the past.

 

Four years ago, the Chiefs were a regular playoff team with a strong roster and solid QB (Alex Smith).  Andy Reid made the bold move to trade-up for a raw, high-ceiling prospect in Mahomes.  And instead of rushing him into action, he let Mahomes sit the bench for a full year and develop behind the veteran.  Not only did Smith respond with a career-year, but Mahomes emerged 12 months later to become possibly the best QB in the game.  The Chiefs then won the Super Bowl in his second season starting.

 

I think Shanahan is looking at Fields or Lance, and is planning on using the Kansas City model.

 

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42 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

The Bears will tell you (now) that you don't trade up to get a kid with one full year starting for your QB.

 

Frame it another way: which player has the best chance to make an immediate and lasting impact on the 49ers Offense?  Hands down it's Pitts.  Jimmy G isn't the best, but he isn't awful either.  Lance wouldn't be competent to take over Shanahan's Offense for years, maybe.  That's worse than a Daniel Jones pick/move.

Are your really suggesting that the niners should take Kyle Pitts after trading 3 1st rd picks and a 3rd?  

Strange considering your stance less than a year ago.  

“Hence the decreasing value of a top receiving TE on that team.  They essentially won (almost a SB) with him ghosting the playoffs.”  Now you suggest they trade 3 1sts and a 3rd to draft a SECOND tight end?  Can’t wait to see how you twist your words up this time.

 

 

 

You’re suggesting the niners (and shanahan) should put their trust in Jimmy Brokenappolo to stay healthy for more than 1 of 3 seasons?  The delicate and vulnerable midgeee QB that has no mobility  gives them their best chance for sustained success?  Or are you just talking about who gives them the best chance for one season if he were to remain healthy?  Two completely different things.

 

no one knows if any of these potential draftees will be good.  Lance or Mac may be bums when it’s all said and done.  Pitts may never make the playoffs if the the niners select him and keep Slimmy G as their franchise QB.  
 

My feelings remains the same.  You don’t trade all of those assets so you can draft a tight end, especially when you already have George Kittle and are paying him 15M a year.  It doesn’t make sense.  

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10 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

There are a lot of guys saying a lot of things. Joe Thomas played for Kyle and he thinks he’s taking Fields. I think Atlanta leaked that the Niners are taking jones to try to drum up interest in the 4th pick for fields/lance. I just don’t think that most teams really believe it. The Niners also have a vested interest in ensuring that the Jets stick with Wilson and don’t decide to take their guy. 

Shanahan cannot afford to have a losing season. If JG stays healthy, they’re probably a playoff team. If he goes down and Mac Jones comes in, I can see them still winning ten games. If Fields is the replacement, I doubt they win eight. I have a lot of doubts about Fields as a QB. 

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1 hour ago, DJB said:

 

I have him as a 2nd rounder but wouldn't fault anyone for having him in the 3rd. 

 

I was not a fan of Tua at all last year. I thought he was a project and I had Burrow and Herbert rated as elite QB's. 

 

Jones is worse than Tua and Tua completely flopped year 1. Why anyone would want to take Jones in the first round let alone top 10 is beyond me. 

Any QB I would draft in the second, I would draft in the first to secure the 5th year option.  
 

That said, I don’t see Jones as an elite talent either, he may be good in the NFL, many of the best athletes fail and guys who aren’t perfect go on to be stars. 

 

To me the 49ers are insane to send all that capital to get the 3rd best guy and you don’t even know who that is yet.  That means you basically have to be saying “Wilson, Fields, Jones, Lance are all good enough for me to give up 3 1st round picks for”. That’s insanity.  The only guarantee is Lawrence won’t be there at 3, the rest is a guess.

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