If a team’s roster is solidified and picks late then why not move up in a draft?

[folz]

I think trading up is definitely a possibility (if there's someone they want). It makes a lot of sense. If you keep all of your picks, some of those guys probably won't even make the roster this year. And you're good enough now and deep enough now that you aren't looking to fill out your roster, but instead for a few select high-end players that can help you take the next step. And there are plenty of low-cost free agents still available if you just need depth.

 

The question is how high up could they go and is there a player there that they would be willing to give up the capital for. I think this year's picks are somewhat expendable, but I doubt that Beane wants to give up any high future picks to move up. So, that would limit how high we could get. I also don't think that Beane will part with his number two pick this year (just my opinion---I think they want to come away with at least a couple of guys that can help this year/right away). So, if you packaged your third round and 2 fifth round picks, that would only get you up to maybe 21. (For perspective, if the Bills gave up their entire draft this year---all 9 picks---that would only get them to about pick 14, according to the draft value chart.)

 

So, moving up is definitely a possibility if there is someone they like on the board, but I don't see us moving up more than say 10 picks (to the low 20s) at most. Any players in that range worth moving up for draftniks?

 

[But, again, who knows...Beane is an unpredictable wizard.]

 

 

Edited April 14, 2021 by folz

[glazeduck]

7 minutes ago, Billl said:

Pioli loves himself some Pioli.  Amazing how smart he wasn’t as soon as he left New England.

This has absolutely nothing to do with your post, but I had the honor of working with Scott for a couple years. I can honestly say he's one of the best people I've ever met. I hate the Pats with every fiber of my being (and told him so many times) but will always have a soft spot in my heart for that man, he's truly a genuinely good person.

1 minute ago, folz said:

I think trading up is definitely a possibility (if there's someone they want). It makes a lot of sense. If you keep all of your picks, some of those guys probably won't even make the roster this year. And you're good enough now and deep enough now that you aren't looking to fill out your roster, but instead for a few select high-end players that can help you take the next step. And there are plenty of low-cost free agents still available if you just need depth.

 

The question is how high up could they go and is there a player there that they would be willing to give up the capital for. I think this year's picks are somewhat expendable, but I doubt that Beane wants to give up any high future picks to move up. So, that would limit how high we could get. I also don't think that Beane will part with his number two pick this year (just my opinion---I think they want to come away with at least a couple of guys that can help this year/right away). So, if you packaged your third round and 2 fifth round picks, that would only get you up to maybe 21. (For perspective, if the Bills gave up their entire draft this year---all 9 picks---that would only get them to about pick 14, according to the draft value chart.)

 

So, moving up is definitely a possibility if there is someone they like on the board, but I don't see us moving up more than say 10 picks (to the low 20s) at most. Any players in that range worth moving up for draftniks?

 

[But, again, who know...Beane is an unpredictable wizard.]

 

 

Always depends on how the draft is playing out, but I will not be at all surprised if Beane trades up in this draft. 

 

I've made the case numerous times in my Kyle Pitts fever dream posts, but this year, more than most years, I think late-round picks will pan out to be much more equivalent in terms of success to earlier-mid rd. picks... If Beane could swing something like using a 3 and getting back a 5 or 6 to get the guy he really wanted, I think that'd be a really shrewd move (and I think Beane is that kind of shrewd, second/third-level thinker).

[Augie]

19 minutes ago, Logic said:

Because teams have to plan beyond this year. 

Smart front offices draft for the future, not just the present.

As Josh Allen and other young Bills get signed to big contracts, it will become more and more important for the Bills to rely on a pipeline of cheap labor.

Less picks = less cheap labor and less swings at players that can help the team.

 

Exactly! 

 

Remember, guys like Milano and Diggs were 5th round picks, as was an all-time favorite Kyle Williams. Jason Peters was undrafted! Tom Brady....ok, sorry for bringing that up...

 

The draft is a crapshoot where the cheap talent comes from. We seem to draft better than most, take advantage of our strength. Trust Beane to know his board and get it right! 

 

That does not mean we can’t trade up, just that we should trust our GM. 

[NewEra]

25 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

How about Alabama’s DT Christian Barmore? I don’t think that Beane would have to trade up drastically to draft him and with the question marks with Harrison Phillips and Star Lotulelei he might be a good fit for this defense’s future.

He’s not a 1T imo

[billsfan89]

You need depth and cheap young players to replace starters 2 years from now. If there is a pass rusher available and the Bills move up I am fine with it. But I don’t think you need to move up. Just let the draft come to you, that’s the luxury the Bills have.

[glazeduck]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He’s not a 1T imo

Very much not. He's a penetrator, and under 3bills, if I remember right. Maybe right around it? 1Ts need some more junk in their trunk.

 

Now if someone gave us a sweetheart offer for Oliver.........🤔

9 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Exactly! 

 

Remember, guys like Milano and Diggs were 5th round picks, as was an all-time favorite Kyle Williams. Jason Peters was undrafted! Tom Brady....ok, sorry for bringing that up...

 

The draft is a crapshoot where the cheap talent comes from. We seem to draft better than most, take advantage of our strength. Trust Beane to know his board and get it right! 

 

That does not mean we can’t trade up, just that we should trust our GM. 

This is all 100% right, but it also doesn't account for our championship window, which is arguably now. 6 good, cheap players, would be great -- if they all made the team. But nobody will care if they're solid starters 3 or 4 years from now if we end up with 1 great player and they help us in a Super Bowl. 

 

Again, it's all a balance... Like you said, trust the GM.

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

How many to tango?

Damn spell check😂

 

 

[Buftex]

The reward for a front office doing a great job in constructing a strong roster over the last 3 years, is that they may be at the point where the quality of the picks can take precedence over the quantity of picks.  It is part of what they worked for.  Not saying they are now free to trade away top draft picks in coming years....but those later round picks can be used to move up in the early rounds, if there is a value there.  Maybe you trade your 1st, fifth and sixth for a chance to move from #30 to #25 to get when of those top 3 corners? Something like that.

Edited April 14, 2021 by Buftex

[BillsShredder83]

2 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

I just watched this and thought it was funny, appropriate to post a trade story in a post about trading up

 

 

Jets gunna Jet! 😆

[Tipster19]

37 minutes ago, Buftex said:

The reward for a front office doing a great job in constructing a strong roster over the last 3 years, is that they may be at the point where the quality of the picks can take precedence over the quantity of picks.  It is part of what they worked for.  Not saying they are now free to trade away top draft picks in coming years....but those later round picks can be used to move up in the early rounds, if there is a value there.  Maybe you trade your 1st, fifth and sixth for a chance to move from #30 to #25 to get when of those top 3 corners? Something like that.

That is exactly what I was thinking, moving up slightly to get a better player by using some of our later picks. By no means am I suggesting that they should gut this draft or any future ones, I believe that we could use 1 very good player while adding just a few compliment players out of this draft.

[Don Otreply]

10 hours ago, Rocket94 said:

I like the idea if the Bills genuinely feel this takes them all the way.

And that is the key point, Beane will only go as far as a players actual/real time impact on the team as a whole, improvement wise, he does not just jump on the next shiny toy, he is more calculating than that. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

We have a LOT of backup veterans under contract and that should supply the depth that you can get by drafting a lot of late 3rd round and later picks.

 

We should maximize the picks we have in the first 50 and 100 players.  Trade back from the 1st round #30 (it has some extra value because of the 5th year option on 1st round picks0, and UP from the late 2nd and 3rd round picks, using the two 5th and 1st round pick. It might get us three picks in the 35 to 70 range. (#35,  #40,  #60? type picks?). 

[BarleyNY]

13 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

Instead of just staying where you’re slotted or even trading back to accumulate more pick(s), I would think that a team would be more afforded to take that shot to move up in a draft to be in better position to take a player that is projected to be a difference maker. The window for a team to sustain great success is usually opened for just a few years, especially due to the salary cap. Rosters are turned to some degree from year to year and then the contracts start to mount and catch up to a successful team, forcing them to make bigger changes. 

Because, in general, more picks equals more draft success and keeping the pipeline of quality players on their rookie contracts flowing is how a successful team extends its window.  Also draft position impacts future contracts. 
 

That’s not to say that a team like the Bills shouldn’t move up and around if it makes sense.  But making huge trades to jump way up in the draft is often counter productive. 

Edited April 14, 2021 by BarleyNY

[ganesh]

14 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

Instead of just staying where you’re slotted or even trading back to accumulate more pick(s), I would think that a team would be more afforded to take that shot to move up in a draft to be in better position to take a player that is projected to be a difference maker. The window for a team to sustain great success is usually opened for just a few years, especially due to the salary cap. Rosters are turned to some degree from year to year and then the contracts start to mount and catch up to a successful team, forcing them to make bigger changes. 

usually the quality of players beyond 15th pick to the 50th pick is more or less same.  Hence, most of the teams let the draft come to them or trade down and still gget a similar quality player.   The blue chip prospects are all in the top-15

[Bill from NYC]

13 hours ago, Max Fischer said:

Depth is a big reason for Bills success. Could make a strong case that Bills could use depth at nearly every position. 

Depth and cap space. Late round picks cost very little and getting one who can play can save a team millions of real and cap dollars.

12 hours ago, NewEra said:

He’s not a 1T imo

Christian plays bigger than he actually is. 

 

I don't project him to nose in the NFL. I view him as a penetrating DT. 

[BillsCuse]

They really won't be able to make a decision until the picks get into the 20's and they can see where their board is at and whether they want to move up, down or stay put.  It is weird picking at 30, but I love these "1st world - team problems"

[Reed83HOF]

12 hours ago, NewEra said:

He’s not a 1T imo

If you let Phillips walk next year,  he isn't a bad replacement lol

28 minutes ago, ganesh said:

usually the quality of players beyond 15th pick to the 50th pick is more or less same.  Hence, most of the teams let the draft come to them or trade down and still gget a similar quality player.   The blue chip prospects are all in the top-15

This year is funny, Beane was quoted in the past saying something like, if you trade back, you might as well trade out of the entire round, this year we are 2 picks away for that lol. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

15 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

Instead of just staying where you’re slotted or even trading back to accumulate more pick(s), I would think that a team would be more afforded to take that shot to move up in a draft to be in better position to take a player that is projected to be a difference maker. The window for a team to sustain great success is usually opened for just a few years, especially due to the salary cap. Rosters are turned to some degree from year to year and then the contracts start to mount and catch up to a successful team, forcing them to make bigger changes. 

 

The thing is this roster is barely solidified. Luckily, we had an elite passing game and decent bend-don't-break takeaway defense to cover some things up. 

[YattaOkasan]

I dont think a trade up is ruled out at 30 (I do think a RB is), and I understand why you do it.

 

However, I would like to articulate the case for trading back a little.  Bruce Nolan has made this point most passionately (and every point honestly).  With Josh getting a huge contract in the coming years (as well as contracts for Tre, Dawkins, Milano) we are going to have let a lot of our depth/low end starter talent walk (think Taron Johnson, Harrison Phillips, Siran Neal).  Since you pay a premium during free agency, the desire would be to get this level player in the draft.  More of those picks allows you to hit more and fill more holes long term.

[CorkScrewHill]

13 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

Let's see Beane go rogue and trade all his picks for Pitts, Ricky Williams style!

 

The Ricky Williams trade shows why that is not a good strategy. The NFL Draft is a crap shoot to some extent. The 5th round guy ends up being a solid player and the first round player ends up being a bust. I would have been happy back on draft day for the Bills to move up for Ed Oliver. Let's say they gave up their second and 4th last year to move up[ to take a legitimate tackle Isaiah Wilson or even a WR Tee Higgins. The first one obviously is a bust and the second is not better than who we got in the 4th Gabe Davis.  As someone else mentioned .. depth is huge as people get hurt and the salary cap ramifications of having a few cheaper guys on rookie contracts helps as well.