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Who’s the ONE guy you want the Bills to draft no matter what!!?


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2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Shaq Lawson is exactly what player he was.  Passing on Julio Jones and numerous other players is why the Browns were down for as long as they were.  At the end of the day you need to find dudes.  The Patriots havent drafted anyone in a decade and is why Brady left.  

I was born and raised in Cleveland so I’ve watched the Browns issues closely for a long time.  Up until this recent reboot they’ve really ticked off most (all?) of the boxed when it comes to how to screw it all up so you’re way off there.

 

They’ve had meddlesome ownership.  The Haslams went against a unanimous vote by the brass and hired Hue Jackson instead of Sean McDermott.  They also made Ray Farmer trade up for Manziel and insisted on other personnel moves.  Lerner stuck Phil Savage and Romeo Crennel together despite being from totally different defensive philosophies.  GMs demanded that coaches play certain players.  Coaches uneducated on draft prospects demanded certain players (Jason Gilbert, Gerard Warren over Richard Seymour).  The list goes on and some of it is much worse than that.  But I digress. 
 

It looks like you are making a common error here.  You think you can pick the players that’ll be elite.  No one can.  There’s a limit to how good GMs can be.  A conclusion of an analytical study I read is really interesting.  It is that after enough of the correct kind of work is done on prospects - so that the effectiveness of more work is negligible - the main change is an increase in the overconfidence of the decision makers, not anything useful.

 

As for Julio Jones, that is just 20-20 hindsight.  How certain were most fans and people in the Bills FO that Sammy Watkins was going to be an elite WR?  Similar trade, both incredibly highly ranked WR prospects and a similar injury history in college too.  Similar expectations.  But vastly different results.

 

It is worth it for a team to put a lot of draft capital into a good chance of finding their franchise QB.  A case can be made that it is worth overspending draft or financial capital to get the last piece for an otherwise elite team for a SB run.  But beyond that you really only want to move up for a player that is “sticking out” and then only within reason.  Otherwise spread that draft capital around and make trades with desperate teams to acquire more.

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1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

I was born and raised in Cleveland so I’ve watched the Browns issues closely for a long time.  Up until this recent reboot they’ve really ticked off most (all?) of the boxed when it comes to how to screw it all up so you’re way off there.

 

They’ve had meddlesome ownership.  The Haslams went against a unanimous vote by the brass and hired Hue Jackson instead of Sean McDermott.  They also made Ray Farmer trade up for Manziel and insisted on other personnel moves.  Lerner stuck Phil Savage and Romeo Crennel together despite being from totally different defensive philosophies.  GMs demanded that coaches play certain players.  Coaches uneducated on draft prospects demanded certain players (Jason Gilbert, Gerard Warren over Richard Seymour).  The list goes on and some of it is much worse than that.  But I digress. 
 

It looks like you are making a common error here.  You think you can pick the players that’ll be elite.  No one can.  There’s a limit to how good GMs can be.  A conclusion of an analytical study I read is really interesting.  It is that after enough of the correct kind of work is done on prospects - so that the effectiveness of more work is negligible - the main change is an increase in the overconfidence of the decision makers, not anything useful.

 

As for Julio Jones, that is just 20-20 hindsight.  How certain were most fans and people in the Bills FO that Sammy Watkins was going to be an elite WR?  Similar trade, both incredibly highly ranked WR prospects and a similar injury history in college too.  Similar expectations.  But vastly different results.

 

It is worth it for a team to put a lot of draft capital into a good chance of finding their franchise QB.  A case can be made that it is worth overspending draft or financial capital to get the last piece for an otherwise elite team for a SB run.  But beyond that you really only want to move up for a player that is “sticking out” and then only within reason.  Otherwise spread that draft capital around and make trades with desperate teams to acquire more.

Most picks are a crap shoot.  Miles Garret, Julio Jones, Jalen Ramsey, Quinton Nelson the list goes on and on.  There are players who are deemed sure fire guys.  No one doubted them.  Poor run teams get cute and trade out for more picks.  Those cases rarely work out.  The Jets have a track record lf drafting bad.  Them having a bunch of picks means nothing until they turn them into guys.  

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41 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Most picks are a crap shoot.  Miles Garret, Julio Jones, Jalen Ramsey, Quinton Nelson the list goes on and on.  There are players who are deemed sure fire guys.  No one doubted them.  Poor run teams get cute and trade out for more picks.  Those cases rarely work out.  The Jets have a track record lf drafting bad.  Them having a bunch of picks means nothing until they turn them into guys.  

Lol.  So can you give me a list of all of the sure fire guys in this draft?

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On 4/4/2021 at 12:47 PM, Solomon Grundy said:

Zaven Collins is the guy I want the Bills to draft. He seems to be a Queen on the chess board type of player. I’d love to see what McDermott/Frazier could do with his versatility 

With Collins maybe McD could move Milano to a big nickel DB/LB role...

Edited by JaCrispy
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14 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

With Collins maybe McD could move Milano to a big nickel DB/LB role...

It would be the same as when it’s Edmunds, Milano and Klein (except sub Collins for Klein) out there.  4-3.  You can call it “big nickel” or you can call it 4-3.  It’s the player in the spot that makes it a “big nickel”, a 4-3 or nickel.  If Milano is out there, it’s a 4-3 because he’s a starting lb

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