Analysis of Emmanual Sanders Film (Athletic, Joe B)

[Patrick Duffy]

10 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Hmm...  About when did our deep ball receiver get injured???

True, but Diggs could also be considered a deep threat too. In any event Josh improved on the deep ball some. But it's clear it needs some improvement still. He has improved in everything else so I suspect that part will also continue to get better.

Edited April 1, 2021 by Patrick_Duffy

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

The games are the evidence.... If you don't believe me just go back and watch them yourself.... since the Raider game, his deep ball was a struggle throughout the middle of the season.

 

 

Yup, more crap. Thought so.

 

I did watch the games. So did all of us. We disagree with your unsupported opinion.

 

In other words, you have no evidence whatsoever. Just an unsupported minority opinion that you think is a fact. I don't think anyone is arguing he was terrific with the deeper balls last year, but many think he showed improvement and was good at it.

 

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I can tell you just off the top of my head he missed a deep ball against Patriots(week 8), and then two against the Seahawks(one to Brown, one to Diggs) in an otherwise incredible game from him. In fact, those two deep ball passes(traveled at least over 40 yards) were probably his only two missed throws/overthrows of the game..... I recall the commentator say after the overthrow to Diggs that it was the one part of his game that needs a little more work or something to that effect.

It’s no secret his deep throws, while better from basically an overthrow every time he threw them in 2019, are still inconsistent at best. 

 

 

Doesn’t seem to matter how big Russell Wilson’s receivers are, regardless of Metcalf.....his deep pass touch and timing is the best of the best.

 

 

I see.

 

So, you're saying that Russell Wilson's percentage of 30 - 40 yard passes, and his percentage of 40 - 50 yard passes, being "the best of the best," would be way better than Josh's last year.

 

Right, Scott? That's what you're saying, right?

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Thurman#1

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You and Badol are asking for stats from others and then producing none yourself.

 

 

 

 

Wrong.......I did not ask for stats.......Doc made a statistical declaration.........that Allen was "8th in the NFL".

 

He made up a stat to shout down a discussion..........much the same as you made up this narrative.

 

I have a stat for you...........you have become the #1 most consistently wrong poster on this site.

 

There really is no reason to be a truther about areas where the team or it's players can improve.   

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

Hmm...  About when did our deep ball receiver get injured???

 

Well then shouldn't they be trying to fill that position?

 

I get it, you feel harmed by my sarcasm so you are amongst a group who always like to jump into discussions just to be contrary.........I'm flattered, really..........but the entire point of this branch of the discussion is whether they need a deep threat option.

 

So thanks for your support, I guess.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[SWATeam]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Well then shouldn't they be trying to fill that position?

 

Good thing it's April and not September.

 

They do need some deep speed and I assume it will be addressed.   

[DCofNC]

11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'm glad you're open to Davis growing into a "bigger" role as a physical/jump ball receiver. He flashed last season. Was a great 9-route guy in college. Shame he was limited by injury down the stretch for the Bills. 

 

We should also be open to Hodgins earning time on the field in 2021. He is a rangy dude (tall with long arms) with elite hands (according to scouting reports) and I'd argue sneaky athleticism (really solid agility and explosion numbers once you get past his 40 time). His camp last year was every bit as eye-opening as Davis's until he got hurt. He's the son of a long time NFL FB. He can hopefully play. 

 

Hodgins length could work for him, if he can get off the line.

 

whst drives me CRAZY watching Davis, he will jump for balls he doesn’t need to, it’s a terrible habit.  Once you are off the ground you can’t do anything to stop a defender from just running you right off the field.  It would be one thing if he were high pointing, he absolutely is not, he is jumping too early and giving up leverage, he has to fix it.  He’s got some talent, enough so that I believe he could be the actual #2 of the team, but those little things are what separates the cuts from the good players and good from the greats.

[billsfan89]

I think they really want to use him and his versatility as a WR4. He takes pressure of off Davis who we can see if he is worthy of being a true WR2. Beasley and Sanders I hope both have one more year left in the tank and with Diggs as the WR1 and Davis and Mac as the younger options I think you see an elite WR corps for one more season. Hopefully Davis really does emerge as a solid WR2. That sets the WR corps up longer term.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Dude, there are numerous ways to rewatch games. If you don't believe me go rewatch them for yourself. 

 

I gave you examples where Allen struggled to throw the ball deep. Go rewatch them for yourself instead of attacking me. 

 

 

Seriously? That's your argument? That Allen had examples of games where he struggled to throw the ball deep? That's supposed to be convincing? Good lord, dude, that's pitiful. I mean, surely even you know that I could go to any QB in the league and find examples of games where they struggled to throw the ball deep. Any QB who has thrown any amount of deep balls. I've heard stupider arguments, but not many.

 

So, again ...I gave you the chance to say that you believed what you were saying, and not even you were willing to make your own argument. So I'll give you one more chance ...

 

So, you're saying that Russell Wilson's percentage of 30 - 40 yard passes, and his percentage of 40 - 50 yard passes, being "the best of the best," would be way better than Josh's last year.

 

Right, Scott? That's what you're saying, right?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Sanders is a capable veteran and the contract makes sense. 

 

He's going to be a 600-900 yard kind of WR here. 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Wrong.......I did not ask for stats.......Doc made a statistical declaration.........that Allen was "8th in the NFL".

 

He made up a stat to shout down a discussion..........much the same as you made up this narrative.

 

I have a stat for you...........you have become the #1 most consistently wrong poster on this site.

 

There really is no reason to be a truther about areas where the team or it's players can improve.   

 

 

 

 

I really appreciate your telling me that I've "become the #1 most consistently wrong poster on this site." It tells me I'm doing things right. Whenever I doubt myself, I'll remember you said this and realize I'm on the right track.

 

Being told I'm consistently wrong ... by you ... is like being told by the Kardashians that you're not spending nearly enough time on social media, doing self-promotion or showing off your naked butt and your marital arguments in the media. You hear that from the K's and you know you're oriented well.

 

 And who's the truther, the guy who says "we all saw him overthrow or not put enough air under a significant amount of his deeper throws last year ... He just made too many uncompetitive/uncatchable throws for someone with his ability," isn't he?

 

Thing is, there's no evidence of that. In fact, the evidence says just the opposite, that deep throws are difficult, particularly the 30 yards and longer throws you're talking about, that nobody throws them well consistently, but that Allen is right up there this year.

 

 

 

You said, "He has so much room for growth in that area and it could alter the trajectory of his career if he gains the kind of confidence that guys like Russell Wilson and Brady have in their ability to throw accurately over the top of defenses."

 

So like Scott, you're sure that Josh just doesn't throw anywhere near as well as Russell Wilson over 30 yards ... right?

 

That's a fact, you feel, right?

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup, more crap. Thought so.

 

I did watch the games. So did all of us. We disagree with your unsupported opinion.

 

In other words, you have no evidence whatsoever. Just an unsupported minority opinion that you think is a fact. I don't think anyone is arguing he was terrific with the deeper balls last year, but many think he showed improvement and was good at it.

 

 

 

I see.

 

So, you're saying that Russell Wilson's percentage of 30 - 40 yard passes, and his percentage of 40 - 50 yard passes, being "the best of the best," would be way better than Josh's last year.

 

Right, Scott? That's what you're saying, right?

 

 

 

Thurman, during the 2019 season, I remember John Murphy on the radio (WGR550) constantly saying he thought the deep ball would come back into play for the offense, it never did. John Brown was more of an intermediate WR, then a true burner. 

 

Right from the jump in 2019, the Bills made a conscious effort to shorten routes and make it easier for Allen to complete passes. We saw it right away in the Jets and Giants games, through Dallas. As stated, Allen is great when he can load up and throw darts at 20 yards. 

 

But we haven't seen a consistent Robert Foster 20.0 ypc kind of element in this offense since 2018. Allen did have the 50+ yarder to Brown in the first Dolphins game. 

 

Beasley is death by 1000 cuts, and Diggs give you a deeper average depth of target. Davis has a knack for end zone, but I'm not sure he is a consistent deep threat yet. 

 

It's not an attack on Allen though.    

 

The two best throws from Allen in 2020 that I saw was that dagger route against the 49ers to Gabe Davis over the top of Fred Warner, and that throw in the Playoff game against the Colts to Diggs over the middle, and maybe all those toe tapping throws to Davis. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Thurman#1]

35 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Thurman, during the 2019 season, I remember John Murphy on the radio (WGR550) constantly saying he thought the deep ball would come back into play for the offense, it never did. John Brown was more of an intermediate WR, then a true burner. 

 

Right from the jump in 2019, the Bills made a conscious effort to shorten routes and make it easier for Allen to complete passes. We saw it right away in the Jets and Giants games, through Dallas. As stated, Allen is great when he can load up and throw darts at 20 yards. 

 

But we haven't seen a consistent Robert Foster 20.0 ypc kind of element in this offense since 2018. Allen did have the 50+ yarder to Brown in the first Dolphins game. 

 

Beasley is death by 1000 cuts, and Diggs give you a deeper average depth of target. Davis has a knack for end zone, but I'm not sure he is a consistent deep threat yet. 

 

It's not an attack on Allen though.    

 

 

 

During the 2019 season, that was correct. Allen overthrew guys a bunch of times. They simply didn't have the ability to connect long.

 

Last year was very different, though. So different that teams after the first few games quickly decided the way to defend Allen and this offense was to use two high safeties and make it a ton more difficult to throw it long. They defended Allen the way they've traditionally defended Brady ... try to take away the longer balls and force him to go down the field using the short game. Make him dink and dunk. That's how they attacked us too.

 

The reason they did that is because Allen came out on fire early in the year with long balls. And even with the consistent two-deep making it much tougher to get those long balls, he still got them with reasonable frequency, though he wasn't torching Ds as easily as he had before the defensive change.

Edited April 1, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

You’re right.  I had a brain fart.  I meant slot.  No idea why I mixed up Z and slot. 

 

 

Ah, I see.

 

I wasn't quite sure what you meant.

 

I'm excited to see how many ways they can use him.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

During the 2019 season, that was correct. Allen overthrew guys a bunch of times. They simply didn't have the ability to connect long.

 

Last year was very different, though. So different that teams after the first few games quickly decided the way to defend Allen and this offense was to use two high safeties and make it a ton more difficult to throw it long. They defended Allen the way they've traditionally defended Brady ... try to take away the longer balls and force him to go down the field using the short game. Make him dink and dunk. That's how they attacked us too.

 

The reason they did that is because Allen came out on fire early in the year with long balls. And even with the consistent two-deep making it much tougher to get those long balls, he still got them with reasonable frequency, though he wasn't torching Ds as easily as he had before the defensive change.

 

 

 

Last year was different.......he improved greatly in general.........particularly in throws in the 21-30 yard range where he ranked #1 in completion % after finishing dead last in that category in 2019.

 

And yet despite that and being the 4th most accurate overall passer.........per NFL Next Gen Stats he was only the 14th ranked in deep ball accuracy in 2020.

 

https://www.facebook.com/nflnetwork/videos/211552707232333/?t=8

 

The link above was from prior to the Colts game.    The Colts defense was very poor against the deep ball in 2020 and the storyline was predicting that Allen would not be able to take advantage of that because his deep passing #'s were much worse than the Colts allowed ON AVERAGE thru the season.

 

They were right......he couldn't connect over the top that day.   He ended up putting up a lot of crooked numbers overall and they eeked out a win........ but it was a struggle and he took a beating. 

 

Days like THAT are why he needs to be able to execute the deep ball like someone with both the strongest arm in the league and high level short-intermediate accuracy should.    

 

He may not get injured taking all of those extra hits but it will take its toll.  

 

I expect deep ball touch/timing/accuracy to be the big gain this offseason...........hopefully they have the personnel to maximize his improvement.

 

So again,  you are wrong in thinking it's not an area where he needs much improvement.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

 

Don't forget Duke

 

Wouldn't you say Kumerow appears to have moved ahead of Duke on the depth chart?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 3/31/2021 at 11:24 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm a fan of Sanders but not a fan of the "same-ness" of their WR corps.

 

We all know that Allen isn't yet adept at deep accuracy/touch/timing but they had a greater need for a legit deep threat with either an extra gear to get an overthrown ball or a huge catch radius.......or preferably both.     That would complement the existing talent so much better, IMO.    More room for RAC and less contested throws underneath.   Probably create more running room for the backs.

 

 

Allen was statisticallly the most accurate on deep throws in all of the NFL..

 

[Sundancer]

On 4/1/2021 at 6:38 AM, JMF2006 said:

 

Don't forget Duke

 

Do we have advance stats on posts mentioning Duke vs catches? 

[LabattBlue]

Hap...my OCD is going to explode if you don’t fix the spelling of his name in the title. 😂

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

Allen was statisticallly the most accurate on deep throws in all of the NFL..

 

 

 

No, he was not.

 

@Doc already tried to make up a stat like that. 

 

Per NFL's own Next Gen stats Josh Allen was 14th in deep ball accuracy with a 40.6 completion %.

 

I provided a link a few posts ago about a segment NFL Network produced prior to the Colts game that showed the Colts defense allowed 50% of deep balls to be completed on them during the season but that Allen was not good on the deep ball.

 

He is middling at it.........and that is despite the fact that he can throw a deep ball on a line so *some* of those throws are still in his wheelhouse.

 

But the further you get downfield the easier that flat throws become to defend.

 

When it comes to putting air under the ball and dropping it into a bucket like Brady and Wilson and Rodgers are so good at........there has been no telling where the ball will land when Allen lofts it over the defense.   

 

It's the next logical step in his progression but he was still scattershot on such throws last year and he declined to attempt some golden opportunities as well because of his inefficiency in that regard.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

Allen was statisticallly the most accurate on deep throws in all of the NFL..

 

 

I'm not doubting you, but I'm looking for data on completion % on throws of various distances (NFL.com is just >20 yds).

 

Can you point me at a source of this info?

 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Per NFL's own Next Gen stats Josh Allen was 14th in deep ball accuracy with a 40.6 completion %.

 

Can you point me at this?  The stat I found, only gives data on the total yards gained on a play.  It doesn't differentiate between air yards and YAC.

Thanks.