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3rd easiest schedule next year according to Mike Clay


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8 hours ago, nucci said:

this means nothing at this time of year. 

 

I'd take it a step further and omit "at this time of year". 

 

The only time you know whether the schedule was easy or brutal is after the fact. Who had us at locked in at 3-1 against the NFC West before last season started?

 

 

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Wayyyyyyy too early to tell how easy or hard a schedule actually is. The NFL is far too volatile a league to determine just how easy or hard a schedule is. Last year the schedule was so brutal yet this team didn’t have as many difficult matchups as thought due to various factors.

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Last year we had a “hard” schedule and went 13-3 with a real 14-2 and a fluke Hail Mary Mary. So previous years record is not indicative or next years performance. I agree you look at the QB and the location of the game. I still think we stand to be no worse than 12-4 next year depending on what happens with the Pats and Phins QB situations over the next few months. If they get one maybe we could go as low as 11-5. 

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Mike Clay

@MikeClayNFL

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Mar 25

Okay, based on my current evaluation of each NFL roster, ......

 

  So this sos ranking is based on Mike Clay's current evaluation of each teams roster, ........😂

 

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17 hours ago, Logic said:

I appreciate the post, but pre-season strength of schedule forecasts don't mean much to me.

Things change SO MUCH over the course of a season. What looked like an easy stretch of games can quickly become a very tough stretch of games, and vice versa.

In 2020, for instance, the stretch of games that went New England, Seattle, Arizona, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Pittsburgh looked INCREDIBLY tough. Then it turned out that New England stunk, San Francisco were the walking wounded, and Pittsburgh's bubble burst. When it was all said and done, the Bills went 5-1 in that stretch.

You just never know.


Bingo.  This topic comes up every off season.  Before 2020, the pundits said we had the 5th hardest schedule facing the AFCW, and NFCW, + Pitt, and TN.  Now we have an easy schedule per whoever, and there is no way to project these points.  How does anyone know if NO will be good with Winston most likely post eye surgery.  He may have thrown 30 picks a couple of years ago, but also threw 30 TD’s.  I have no idea nor does Mike Clay if he improved taking the back up spot to Brees under Payton.  That’s just one example, the Pats, I don’t know.  What about the draft.  Miami could be vastly improved or not.

 

I wouldn’t read much into SOS projections.  They are wrong more than right.  If you’re bored, ok, but we still face KC, Pitt., TN, Tampa, etc.  I just don’t know.  How many teams improve vastly in one year and comes out of nowhere, ie., Tampa was 7-9 and the next year wins the SB.  Who knows if the losses to KC on their line pile up, or they replace and improve?

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These types of projections mean nothing in March. You won't really have a feel of things until about week 4 of the regular season. Injuries happen, things click for some teams, and some just fall apart compared to previous years. I look at our schedule and I think it's pretty tough.

 

But to be the best, you gotta beat the best!!!!!

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He does call it crazy early which makes it self aware but still interesting.  I made a post last year about his predraft unit grades which I thought was interesting as well.   His assessment was comprehensive, meaningful in terms of draft needs and obviously wrong in terms of the state of the 2020 Bills roster.  He had them at ~23 and was way too down on Josh.  This does have a Fantasy Football intent as that is his niche as a writer but I think the strength of roster units, version March of 2021, that his strength of schedules are based upon, is the more discussion worthy content.  Here is his tweet about the remaining free agents combined with his strength of team units.

 

Mike Clays RFAs and Strength of Team Rosters

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To expand somewhat on this, he has the Bills roster at 6, behind TB, Cle. GB, Dal and Sea.  I think he has the Bills too low at RB, OL, DL but these do match much of the consensus thinking about the Bills predraft needs.  Cle at #2  is original but I am way too tired of the constant love for all things Cowboys.

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2 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

To expand somewhat on this, he has the Bills roster at 6, behind TB, Cle. GB, Dal and Sea.  I think he has the Bills too low at RB, OL, DL but these do match much of the consensus thinking about the Bills predraft needs.  Cle at #2  is original but I am way too tired of the constant love for all things Cowboys.

We’re now officially in bizarro world when Buffalo, Cleveland and Tampa Bay have the best rosters in the league. Go figure! 

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