Trade out of 30 for 2022 1st?

[Mark Vader]

27 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Problem is, who is it that really helps them this year?  The pass rushers are all risky prospects, no TE within any reach is that good after Pitts, and I don’t thin a RB makes much difference with this OL.

There is risk in many drafted players, the potential in pass rushers is greater earlier than late. If Rousseau or Paye fall a little, then make a move for one of them. Same thing goes for Pitts and Waddle. Take a chance.

 

I don't see how any team would willingly give us their first round pick in 2022 in order to get our first round pick this year. That will not happen.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Looking at pick 30, it doesn’t look like there will be a decent pass rusher available and it seems too early to take an interior OL.  What would people think of trading out for a 2022 first and maybe a 2021 3rd?

 

Thought process is that any 2022 pick is likely to be earlier than #30 and DL prospects are weak this year.

 

Thoghts?

 

If Etienne is there I am taking him every time.

[BuffaloRebound]

55 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

I feel that the future is now, and we need to go upwards and grab someone who can help us immediately.

 

That's why I would trade our first and second round picks this year and our 1st next year. Let's face it they are all late picks. Our 2nd round pick this year is really a high 3rd round pick. We need to make a bold move.

I like going for it but trading a future 1st is too risky for my blood. Crazy stuff can happen and it ends up being a top 5 pick.  Look at Houston.  

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Ya Digg? said:

Nobody would offer a future first round pick to get into the very end of the first round

How about adding another 2nd&3rd round picks to the mix? 

[Paul Costa]

The only offensive player I’m taking at 30 is Toney. CB or DL or Toney. Obviously if someone slips all bets are off. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Whatever GM would trade a future 1 for pick 30 should be fired on the spot

Sometimes you see panic trades like that when a HC or GM is trying to win immediately so they can hang onto their jobs.  That’s about it.  Look at the stupid trades O’Brien made in Houston. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, TonyBeets said:

Exactly!  It's a first round pick for a first round pick.  This year holds more value than next year.  If a QB/player falls that someone in round 2 likes, I would be all ears!

No.   Usually the value of picks are in several buckets. 1-15,, 16-50, & 51-96.   Trading a #30 to get a 1-15 and a 51-96 is okay

 

[Putin]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Interesting take...I’ve actually been interested in just trading back 8-10 spots, and picking an extra 3rd rounder...

I know I’m probably in a minority here BUT do we really need 8 or 9 late draft picks ?? 
I would rather us get 4 or 5 picks that could maybe contribute THIS YEAR , I’m not saying move up in the 1st round but in the 2nd and 3rd round I’m all for it , we don’t really have many holes I would like us get a stud CB2 , pass rusher , guard , and maybe someone with SPEED who could return kicks / punts and maybe contribute on offense 

[whatdrought]

We could probably get a 2 and 3 for 30 (maybe even 2,3, and 4 if we go far enough back and or package a 5 with it) but I don’t think anyone would give up a future first for 30.

[JaCrispy]

6 minutes ago, Putin said:

I know I’m probably in a minority here BUT do we really need 8 or 9 late draft picks ?? 
I would rather us get 4 or 5 picks that could maybe contribute THIS YEAR , I’m not saying move up in the 1st round but in the 2nd and 3rd round I’m all for it , we don’t really have many holes I would like us get a stud CB2 , pass rusher , guard , and maybe someone with SPEED who could return kicks / punts and maybe contribute on offense 

I agree...the problem is, however, is two fold...

 

1. Our picks are at the bottom of each round and.....

 

2. We have no 4th round pick to help us get back into the 3rd...

 

Thats why I like the idea of trading back roughly 8-10 spots...It would give us two 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders....those four picks in the first three round could go far in helping build a foundation moving forward...

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I've often read that when looking at the draft pick point chart, picks one year out are worth one round less. i.e. points for 1st overall pick in 2022 = 1st pick in round 2

 

So based on that giving up the 30th pick for next years first would be the points equivalent of a 2nd round pick, plus as the OP suggested a 3rd this season.

 

However normally when dealing with future picks, it involves multiple picks, like if Miami traded for Watson, they'd likely be giving up both their 1st's this season plus maybe next years 1st and 2nd which wouldn't be worth as many draft points as a team trading three 1st round picks this season plus this years 2nd.  Plus it usually involves trading up close to the top of the draft.

 

So as the OP suggested trading the 30th overall for a 1st next year and a 3rd this year; Can't see that happening either!  Too much unknown in how the team will do next year, will it be a top 10 pick or the #25 overall.  In multiple pick trades, teams willing to take that risk as they are getting lots of picks, but as this was proposed, highly doubtful.

[BillsFanForever19]

If we would have done more (/had more money to spend) in Free Agency - I probably wouldn't be opposed. But since we were basically only able to bring back our own - that 30th pick is necessary.

 

Also, from the other team's perspective - unless they are in the Super Bowl - they'd end up giving up more than a 30th the following year. And if it's a Houston Texans situation - they'd be giving up a *lot* more. Don't think many teams would be interested in that trade.

Edited March 22, 2021 by BillsFanForever19

[Rock'em Sock'em]

2 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

Nobody would offer a future first round pick to get into the very end of the first round

It has happened:

 

• 2011- #28: New England → New Orleans (D). New England traded this selection to New Orleans for New Orleans' second-round selection in 2011 (56th overall) and first-round selection in 2012.

 

Although it's far more likely to land a 2nd and 3rd in 2021 for the 30th overall pick this year, if New Orleans came to the table with a deal like this again, I would take it.

 

[KollegeStudnet]

BPA at 30

 

Unless a proposal is just too sweet af 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Looking at pick 30, it doesn’t look like there will be a decent pass rusher available and it seems too early to take an interior OL.  What would people think of trading out for a 2022 first and maybe a 2021 3rd?

 

Thought process is that any 2022 pick is likely to be earlier than #30 and DL prospects are weak this year.

 

Thoghts?

 

Absolutely not.  We need to try to get 3-4 guys who can contribute this year.  Beane said as much "we need to draft well"

 

If they don't feel there's someone they like at pick 30, Beane will either package some late round picks to move up, or trade back and get a pick.  (He's never traded back before, but there's always a first time)

 

21 minutes ago, Rock'em Sock'em said:

It has happened:

 

• 2011- #28: New England → New Orleans (D). New England traded this selection to New Orleans for New Orleans' second-round selection in 2011 (56th overall) and first-round selection in 2012.

 

Although it's far more likely to land a 2nd and 3rd in 2021 for the 30th overall pick this year, if New Orleans came to the table with a deal like this again, I would take it.

 

 

Oh, a 2021 2nd round pick AND a 1st round in 2012?  I would do that.

[Ga boy]

3 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

I would much rather attempt to trade up this year.

 

How far could we move up if we offer Pick #30, our 2nd round pick, and our first round pick in 2022?

Like your thinking.  We could get our edge at 10.

[MJS]

You pick at 30 because of the 5th year option, in my opinion. Having the option to keep a guy an extra year if he pans out is valuable.

[Estro]

This type of trade rarely happens. 

 

In 2009 the 49ers traded the #43 & #111 picks (their 2nd & 4th round picks in 2009) for the Panthers 2010 1st round pick. The Panthers selected Everette Brown.

 

The Panthers ended up finishing 8-8 thr following season & the 49ers got the 17th pick in the 2010 draft.  This was a relative fleecing by the 49ers, but because teams discount future picks, usually by a round it could be argues it was a fair trade.

 

The more likely trade scenario you see nowadays is a team trades up from the middle of the 2nd round to the back end of the first round and gives up next years 2nd rounder.

 

The Colts pulled this off during the 2019 draft.  They traded their 1st rounder, #26 overall, to the Redskins for their 2nd rounder, #46 overall, & their 2020 2nd rounder.  That pick ended up being the #34 overall pick in the 2020 draft.

 

The above scenario is what I'd love for the Bills to do.  Move back 10-15 spots for an additional 3rd rounder this year or move back 20-25 spots for a future 2nd rounder.  

[Mark Vader]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I like going for it but trading a future 1st is too risky for my blood. Crazy stuff can happen and it ends up being a top 5 pick.  Look at Houston.  

If we had a year like the 49'ers and 90% of our starters are lost for the season, due to injury, that is a possibility.

Edited March 22, 2021 by Mark Vader

[bigK14094]

4 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

Nobody would offer a future first round pick to get into the very end of the first round

"Nobody" isn't correct.  Since a rnd 1 pick can be retained for 5 years, there is value if a team wants to retain a certain draft choice for that period of time.  The bills have that situation with Tremain Edmunds......he was the second first rounder the same year the Bills got Allen.