NFL Draft Success - Past 4 years

[PrimeTime101]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You missed two of their best picks in that timeframe. I agree with the general point though that they are similar to the Bills in the sense that they have drafted their star QB and then a lot of solid guys but only Sneed has difference maker potential IMO.

we are not talking about potential. please don't switch what OP is talking about.. Its what they are doing now. Our picks are better. I skipped out on players that are in and out players that only have so many snaps a game. I feel my post was spot on I will stand by it.  Josh has the potential to be better then Mahomes if you want to talk potential...

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Okay... so you’re throwing out an entire model, that does a really good job of objectively showing you something because Atlanta and Cleveland were essentially flipped? If you look at just raw value that PFF shows.. Cleveland is far outpacing Atlanta... but when factoring positional value and where Cleveland was making their picks... they drop off a bit. 

 

You’d rather trust your “sniff test” which is far more flawed than data because it’s completely subjective solely because it’s comfortable? That’s the exact definition of bias and why so many organizations inside and outside of sports use numbers to eliminate that. It doesn’t make any sense to me. 
 

You’re arguing with me that one particular ranking inside of a model doesn’t make sense, in favor of what comes down to essentially just guessing... 

 

No I am not throwing out the entire model. I am saying the model has value but like any other modelling system that tries to attach numerical value to this stuff it is a useful indicator but not the final answer. I don't think you can just ignore what you see on the football field either. It has to be a combination of the two. Broadly the model is close to matching what I have seen on the field. But there are anomalies. Atlanta is one. They have been one of the worst drafting teams of that period. I am interested in what it is in the model that cause them to be so far out on the Falcons. 

5 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

we are not talking about potential. please don't switch what OP is talking about.. Its what they are doing now. Our picks are better. I skipped out on players that are in and out players that only have so many snaps a game. I feel my post was spot on I will stand by it.  Josh has the potential to be better then Mahomes if you want to talk potential...

 

I am not talking potential. Sneed was a top 5 nickel corner THIS year and Allegretti has played in two Superbowls.

Edited March 6, 2021 by GunnerBill

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No I am not throwing out the entire model. I am saying the model has value but like any other modelling system that tries to attach numerical value to this stuff it is a useful indicator but not the final answer. I don't think you can just ignore what you see on the football field either. It has to be a combination of the two. Broadly the model is close to matching what I have seen on the field. But there are anomalies. Atlanta is one. They have been one of the worst drafting teams of that period. I am interested in what it is in the model that cause them to be so far out on the Falcons. 

Absolutely, I agree with this 100%.

 

It needs to be a combination of both and there’s no debating that at all. Absolutely zero debate. 

We can agree on this, and likely agree on more than that. Probably just talking past each other before by accident. 

Edited March 6, 2021 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

Absolutely, I agree with this 100%.

 

It needs to be a combination of both and there’s no debating that at all. Absolutely zero debate. 

 

Interestingly your model has Atlanta 25th. That feels more realistic than PFF's.

[PrimeTime101]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No I am not throwing out the entire model. I am saying the model has value but like any other modelling system that tries to attach numerical value to this stuff it is a useful indicator but not the final answer. I don't think you can just ignore what you see on the football field either. It has to be a combination of the two. Broadly the model is close to matching what I have seen on the field. But there are anomalies. Atlanta is one. They have been one of the worst drafting teams of that period. I am interested in what it is in the model that cause them to be so far out on the Falcons. 

 

I am not talking potential. Sneed was a top 5 nickel corner THIS year and Allegretti has played in two Superbowls.

kk cool thumbs up

[Punching Bag]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea my eye test on the Bills I'd have them top 10 but second half of that top 10. If you include the 17 draft then top 5 makes more sense. That White, Dawkins, Milano class is one of the best drafts in Bills history (maybe the best non-Polian draft?)

 

And people do not want to hear this but Whaley and his team of scouts provided the data for front office to pick from.

[Some do not believe it so much they think Beane got lesson in cheating from New England]

Whaley was a very good front office person in Pittsburgh but was terrible at front office politics  and public speaking.

 

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea my eye test on the Bills I'd have them top 10 but second half of that top 10. If you include the 17 draft then top 5 makes more sense. That White, Dawkins, Milano class is one of the best drafts in Bills history (maybe the best non-Polian draft?)

 

And people do not want to hear this but Whaley and his team of scouts provided the data for front office to pick from.

[Some do not believe it so much they think Beane got lesson in cheating from New England]

Whaley was a very good front office person in Pittsburgh but was terrible at front office politics  and public speaking.

 

[Punching Bag]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea my eye test on the Bills I'd have them top 10 but second half of that top 10. If you include the 17 draft then top 5 makes more sense. That White, Dawkins, Milano class is one of the best drafts in Bills history (maybe the best non-Polian draft?)

 

And people do not want to hear this but Whaley and his team of scouts provided the data for front office to pick from.

[Some do not believe it so much they think Beane got lesson in cheating from New England]

Whaley was a very good front office person in Pittsburgh but was terrible at front office politics  and public speaking.

 

[JGMcD2]

6 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

And people do not want to hear this but Whaley and his team of scouts provided the data for front office to pick from.

[Some do not believe it so much they think Beane got lesson in cheating from New England]

Whaley was a very good front office person in Pittsburgh but was terrible at front office politics  and public speaking.

This is true. I thought Whaley was fine for the most part on the personnel side of things... but he wasn’t fit to run an entire organization. 
 

With that being said, it seems like the rest of the NFL believes he isn’t even fit to run a scouting department seeing he’s been out of the league for ~5 years now. 

[Punching Bag]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea my eye test on the Bills I'd have them top 10 but second half of that top 10. If you include the 17 draft then top 5 makes more sense. That White, Dawkins, Milano class is one of the best drafts in Bills history (maybe the best non-Polian draft?)

 

And people do not want to hear this but Whaley and his team of scouts provided the data for front office to pick from.

[Some do not believe it so much they think Beane got lesson in cheating from New England]

Whaley was a very good front office person in Pittsburgh but was terrible at front office politics  and public speaking.

 

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea my eye test on the Bills I'd have them top 10 but second half of that top 10. If you include the 17 draft then top 5 makes more sense. That White, Dawkins, Milano class is one of the best drafts in Bills history (maybe the best non-Polian draft?)

 

And people do not want to hear this but Whaley and his team of scouts provided the data for front office to pick from.

[Some do not believe it so much they think Beane got lesson in cheating from New England]

Whaley was a very good front office person in Pittsburgh but was terrible at front office politics  and public speaking.

 

[PrimeTime101]

21 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

And people do not want to hear this but Whaley and his team of scouts provided the data for front office to pick from.

[Some do not believe it so much they think Beane got lesson in cheating from New England]

Whaley was a very good front office person in Pittsburgh but was terrible at front office politics  and public speaking.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706882-bills-reportedly-fire-entire-scouting-staff-in-addition-to-doug-whaley

So the entire scouting team gets kicked to the curb with Whaley. Now while they did a decent job in 2017 -Zay Jones and Peterman... (how dare I bring up that name)

 

This Link SLAMS Whaley for bad decision making

https://us.blastingnews.com/sports/2016/12/doug-whaley-a-look-at-every-pick-from-the-buffalo-bills-gm-001360789.html

 

while I do not 100% agree with the last link, most of the content is spot on.

 

And again... There was a reason why the GM and his entire scout staff is gone... at the same time

 

[Punching Bag]

8 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706882-bills-reportedly-fire-entire-scouting-staff-in-addition-to-doug-whaley

So the entire scouting team gets kicked to the curb with Whaley. Now while they did a decent job in 2017 -Zay Jones and Peterman... (how dare I bring up that name)

 

This Link SLAMS Whaley for bad decision making

https://us.blastingnews.com/sports/2016/12/doug-whaley-a-look-at-every-pick-from-the-buffalo-bills-gm-001360789.html

 

while I do not 100% agree with the last link, most of the content is spot on.

 

And again... There was a reason why the GM and his entire scout staff is gone... at the same time

 

 

I see nothing wrong with you bringing up those players while forgetting the others.

 

Coach McD fired all of the scouts and then hired 3 back.  

Evidently it was easier to fire all and then figure out which he wanted to keep.

You should recommend this action plan to your boss!

 

Coach McD did the picking of players based on recommendations of staff including the WR coach Phil McGeoghan who heavily recommended the player who was on his team Zay Jones - that is all on Coach McD not Whaley.

 

He also choose OC who picked P5t5rman and he did not last long either.

 

Yes Coach McD dumped the baby with bath water.  Many of the coaches he hired were gone in year and he could have looked at staff which would speed up development time for players.  His QB coach had not coached QBs in decades and was just using this as step up.  Rick Dennison only advantage was coaching Tyrod Taylor's final season in Baltimore.

 

IMO only good coaches he hired were DC Leslie Frazier and Linebackers coach Bob Babich.

 

[JGMcD2]

41 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

He also choose OC who picked P5t5rman and he did not last long either.

 

Yes Coach McD dumped the baby with bath water.  Many of the coaches he hired were gone in year and he could have looked at staff which would speed up development time for players.  His QB coach had not coached QBs in decades and was just using this as step up.  Rick Dennison only advantage was coaching Tyrod Taylor's final season in Baltimore.

 

IMO only good coaches he hired were DC Leslie Frazier and Linebackers coach Bob Babich.

What are you even talking about? First it was Whaley’s scouts whose information was used to make the draft picks... but now apparently it was only Whaley’s scouts who made the GOOD draft picks... and then McDermott and his coaches made the BAD draft picks?
 

Rick Dennison... the guy who was like his 8th choice for OC? It’s documented that he was not the primary target. He wanted Nagy or Childress amongst others and Reid promoted them a year prior to co-coordinators to block a lateral move. Not every person you want to hire is immediately available nor are the just allowed to get up and come work with you when you request it. 
 

He hired Chad Hall on that initial staff too and I believe John Butler as well... and Bobby Babich... and Rob Boras... and Jim Salgado... and Marc Lubick

 

EDIT: Butler came over after the 2017 season. Everyone else was hired in 2017. 

Edited March 7, 2021 by JGMcD2

[MJS]

2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

This is true. I thought Whaley was fine for the most part on the personnel side of things... but he wasn’t fit to run an entire organization. 
 

With that being said, it seems like the rest of the NFL believes he isn’t even fit to run a scouting department seeing he’s been out of the league for ~5 years now. 

Whaley was kind of a glorified scout. He was better at pro personnel than drafting anyways.

 

But let's remember that our team was far less talented and sucked at winning much more. Some of those guys that Whaley brought in and who contributed may have not even have made the current roster.

 

That's why a lot of models take into account the overall success of the team, because starting on a crappy team is much different than starting on a good team.

[JGMcD2]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

Whaley was kind of a glorified scout. He was better at pro personnel than drafting anyways.

 

But let's remember that our team was far less talented and sucked at winning much more. Some of those guys that Whaley brought in and who contributed may have not even have made the current roster.

 

That's why a lot of models take into account the overall success of the team, because starting on a crappy team is much different than starting on a good team.

IIRC Whaley made a lot of moves that were popular with the fan base. Outside of EJ Manuel. 
 

I always thought his drafts and signings were an example of what would happen if the geniuses on BBMB ran the Bills for a few years. 

[MJS]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

IIRC Whaley made a lot of moves that were popular with the fan base. Outside of EJ Manuel. 
 

I always thought his drafts and signings were an example of what would happen if the geniuses on BBMB ran the Bills for a few years. 

I was impressed with his ability to dumpster dive and find competent players. But it's easier to find guys to contribute for a 6 to 8 win team. Finding guys that can help you get to 13 wins is a completely different animal.

[JGMcD2]

13 minutes ago, MJS said:

I was impressed with his ability to dumpster dive and find competent players. But it's easier to find guys to contribute for a 6 to 8 win team. Finding guys that can help you get to 13 wins is a completely different animal.

Yes, I think that’s what he did best as well. 
 

But you’re 100% right... it’s a concept I’ve talked about before... a player may be a contributor on a non-playoff team... but what do they look like on a contender? Do they make the same impact... that’s how you have to measure players... 

 

I brought it up a few times in the never ending Logan Thomas debate haha

[PrimeTime101]

3 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

I see nothing wrong with you bringing up those players while forgetting the others.

 

Coach McD fired all of the scouts and then hired 3 back.  

Evidently it was easier to fire all and then figure out which he wanted to keep.

You should recommend this action plan to your boss!

 

Coach McD did the picking of players based on recommendations of staff including the WR coach Phil McGeoghan who heavily recommended the player who was on his team Zay Jones - that is all on Coach McD not Whaley.

 

He also choose OC who picked P5t5rman and he did not last long either.

 

Yes Coach McD dumped the baby with bath water.  Many of the coaches he hired were gone in year and he could have looked at staff which would speed up development time for players.  His QB coach had not coached QBs in decades and was just using this as step up.  Rick Dennison only advantage was coaching Tyrod Taylor's final season in Baltimore.

 

IMO only good coaches he hired were DC Leslie Frazier and Linebackers coach Bob Babich.

 

really? many times scouting teams stay with the next GM.. Do you have a clue at all with how things work? your right I cherry picked a couple things.. FOR GOOD REASON!!!! JGMcD2 put it best in the quote below but to be honest I am not sure you have a high understanding of how the process worked and the situation McD was put in. Whaley was never favored out until after the draft. 

 

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/04/nfl-bills-fire-doug-whaley-terry-pegula-draft-sean-mcdermott

quoted in this article 

OK, so who handled the draft?

Another tough one to answer. Team owner Terry Pegula says it was Whaley, but several outlets are reporting that head coach Sean McDermott was pulling the strings.

 

sorry I trust Terry before I trust any other outlet. Terry had 0 reason to lie 

 

these are facts folks. 

3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

What are you even talking about? First it was Whaley’s scouts whose information was used to make the draft picks... but now apparently it was only Whaley’s scouts who made the GOOD draft picks... and then McDermott and his coaches made the BAD draft picks?
 

Rick Dennison... the guy who was like his 8th choice for OC? It’s documented that he was not the primary target. He wanted Nagy or Childress amongst others and Reid promoted them a year prior to co-coordinators to block a lateral move. Not every person you want to hire is immediately available nor are the just allowed to get up and come work with you when you request it. 
 

He hired Chad Hall on that initial staff too and I believe John Butler as well... and Bobby Babich... and Rob Boras... and Jim Salgado... and Marc Lubick

 

EDIT: Butler came over after the 2017 season. Everyone else was hired in 2017. 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/04/nfl-bills-fire-doug-whaley-terry-pegula-draft-sean-mcdermott

says it all

Edited March 7, 2021 by PrimeTime101

[Norcalbillsfan]

Will Beanes draft grade go down if we go rb round 2 three years in a row? For 1 draft it's not too much capital, but 3 years in a row when we have so many holes? Not a beane hater just devils advocate.

[PrimeTime101]

50 minutes ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Will Beanes draft grade go down if we go rb round 2 three years in a row? For 1 draft it's not too much capital, but 3 years in a row when we have so many holes? Not a beane hater just devils advocate.

so many holes? Most of the holes you are referring to are not holes, just upgrades needed.

 

As a whole, this team is in a better place with this GM.  but the holes you are referring to is not the topic at hand. The topic at hand is how good he has drafted the last 4 years. lets not loose sight of that.

[Norcalbillsfan]

13 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

so many holes? Most of the holes you are referring to are not holes, just upgrades needed.

 

As a whole, this team is in a better place with this GM.  but the holes you are referring to is not the topic at hand. The topic at hand is how good he has drafted the last 4 years. lets not loose sight of that.

I'm actually a fan of beanes drafts I'm just stating that people will bring up the fact we might spend 3 2nd round picks on rbs.  When we could have done alot elsewhere with three 2nd round picks.

 

And you say we don't have holes, but the rest of the nfl sees our RB squad as one of the worst in the league. Our CB2 situation is not ideal. Our edge rush is not good enough. And we are probably losing Milano. Possibly lose smoke. Beane is a good GM and I trust him to make it work. But to say we just need "upgrades" is being in denial.