Offseason Primer Position Group: OL

[MAJBobby]

Sorry for being a bit late, had a ton of travel for work.  Will try and get the rest of the offense finished up before UFA starts

 

Offensive Line – I was just OK with the OL play.  While they were actually pretty good for most of the season pass blocking their run blocking really suffered all year, and really fell off the cliff when we lost Ford to INJ.  I have a feeling a lot of people are not going to like what I write about this group, but I think I see how the Bills want to build the OL, and that is pass blocking as the priority, over run blocking.  Obviously, they would like that OL that is good at both, but if they seem to lean to the pass blocking more if there is a flawed player at the position.  I will continue to look at the OL in the future under that context, Pass Blocking is the Priority over the Mauler.  IMO this was the lowest performing group in the offense, particularly because their inability to run block really forced one sided offense, which was fine when our WRs were all healthy, when they were not (KC game) it became evident their struggles.

 

Bills UFAs:

 

Ty Nsekhe, 36 yrs, OT, 2020 AAV: 5M, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – He has been depth since he is come here and has provided pretty good depth and seemed to play good enough when he has had to play.  However, with the cap crunch and the age factor with him I think it is time to move on and look to get younger in this position I think they have that youth on the roster already and I will get into that later, but I think Nsekhe is gone, unless we are talking Vet minimum here.

 

Daryl Williams, 29 yrs, RT, 2020 AAV: 2.25M, SPOTRAC Market Value: 7.8M – He had a couple games with where he struggled really late in the season and playoffs mostly, rushers with speed he has some issues with, however I think that Market Value is about right on him.  So, If I can get him back on a 3-year extension in the range of a 6-8M AAV I am good with bringing him back.  We start getting over that 8M and I think I am willing to let him walk.  As one of the better linemen this year I would look at bringing him back, but I would want the contract protected as well, with an easy out after the year, like Spain I think there is that chance he can go that route of Spain as well gets a contact and then starts regressing, forcing to move on.  That is what scares me about him, and even as one of the better linemen this season there is nothing with Williams that tells me that he cannot be upgraded, so I would also want to protect against that, may be a player that Bills let hit the market and see what happens with that, I don’t think there is a must need with Williams of not letting him hit the market first.

 

Jon Feliciano, 29 yrs, OG, 2020 AAV: 3.625M, SPOTRAC Market Value: 8.3M – Another I think could very well walk, I do not think he is worth the market value of 8.3M AAV, also I don’t think he really is that great.  He was known for his nastiness and power yet got abused in both the run game and pass game against power.  The Chiefs game he really struggled, and if that is who we are measuring against we need to get better here, not pay good cap space to tread water.  The issue I am having saying out right let him walk is Morse Situation, with another concussion Bills may be forced to bring him back this year so they have a BU Center as well, protecting themselves in the future if they do not get a Rookie to start grooming for Morse.  I would be fine either way letting him walk or re-signing (depending on the terms) But I think he is actually worth closer to 5-7M AAV. 

 

Brian Winters, OG, 30 yrs, 2020 AAV 3.0M, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – Provided depth, albeit not that great of depth imo.  With declining play and youth on the roster I think Winters walks.  I would let him walk.  Had a shot with Ford INJ and Spain release to secure a new contact instead lost that job to Ike Boettger (who I thought played fine) so moving on.

 

Ike Boettger, OG, 27 yrs, 2020 AAV 570K, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A (RFA) - I would likely qualify Ike at 2nd round value RFA tender this year or re-sign Boettger to a 3-year deal in the 2M AAV range.  I think he has shown he can start in a pinch, I would not sign him as a starter, and that is how I think I am able to keep his AAV down.  Gives him a nice raise and some security.  At 2-3M AAV we have a nice depth OG, however I also understand with him wanted to move on, but as depth I would keep him.  This provides security if you let Feliciano walk (or move him to Center). 

 

On Contract OL:

 

Mitch Morse, 29 yrs, Cap Hit 10.34M, Savings 4.8M:  In my opinion any talk of release here is strictly health related with the concussions.  He is a very good pass blocking pivot and is athletic to be able to move, getting to second level and pulling, however at the POA he is a little light and struggles against power.  However not the biggest issue, not an issue at all on the OL except for the health issues.  I personally would keep him this year because I don’t think I am getting his caliber of play within the 4.8M of savings we would get from a release.  However, this is where I let Feliciano walk, draft Morse’s future replacement, and let him play next to Morse as an OG.  However, Bills do have to start planning for life after Mitch Morse, and I think that planning should start this year.  I know people are looking at this as a cap savings cut but would make a hole you have to fill.  So let’s say you like Feliciano here, that’s fine as well, I think it is a downgrade, but then you would want to get Feliciano under contract for about 7M a year, that is his AAV in 2020 and the Savings from Morse. 

 

Dion Dawkins, 27 yrs, Cap Hit: 11.395M:  Dawkins was our most consistent and best OL this season.  He once again showed people he is one of the better LTs in this league.  Could this position be better?  Maybe and then sliding Dawkins to RT, but I don’t think that is a need.  I know there are a lot of people I have talked to that say he isn’t good and that is shown because when Josh Scrambled, he breaks out away from him, meaning Dawkins isn’t blocking, that is a wrong assumption, Josh just has a natural tendency to break right when he needs too.  Most of the pressure this year am from the interior and the RT side.  He is not going anywhere anytime soon unless they get a better LT and slide him to the right side.  My opinion if you want that to happen just go get me a top end RT and not force the position change.  He does struggle with run blocking, which to me is weird he has the power to be effective there, but a lot of times Run Blocking is more of a mindset than anything, and I just do not think he has that mindset, Was better in the beginning of the season with Ford next to him, than later in the season.

 

Cody Ford, 25 yrs, Cap Hit: 2.047M, Savings: 307K – The enigma of the OL group, he is probably the most polarizing.  I think he played very well at LG until injury.  It was like they finally found the position that will put him in the best chance for success.  His is athletically challenged on the edge but inside the phone booth much better, then has the power to hold up inside as well.  Putting him in between two established players of Dawkins and Morse unlocked his ability IMO.  It was ashamed he went down with INJ, because he would have been talked about as one of our better lineman IMO.  He is a very effective run blocker and is an above AVG pass blocker inside at OG.  IMO he is slotted right in to start at LG again next year and this position IMO looks solid, with depth needing to be addressed a bit.

 

Ryan Bates, 24 yrs, OG/OT/C, Cap Hit: 850K, Savings: 850K – This would be an easy cool savings of close to 1M is he was released.  However, you will not find a depth OT, OG, C for 850K.  His value is ability to play every position on the OL.  I would have expected him to play more than he did this year, but we were pretty healthy on the OL with the exception of Ford and a couple nicks here and there.  But just that depth of all 5-position filled under 1M dollars is too valuable to move on from.  When ever he did play since he has been here, he has not looked that he cannot play.  I am maybe a bit of a Bates truther, but find me another team that can fill 5 positions of depth under 1M dollars.

 

Jordan Devey, 33 yrs, OG, Cap Hit: 860K, Savings: 860K – Camp Fodder, I don’t expect anything from him.  Will be cut and pocket the 860K savings after draft or camp.

 

Trey Adams, 25 yrs, OT, Cap Hit: 780K, Savings: 780K – I think he will be given the first shot at the swing OT spot.  I liked him coming out of Washington last year and was happy when Bills signed him as a UDFA.  He was an elite OL in college and then INJ took their tool and cause the major draft slip, without his INJ he likely doesn’t leave the first round let alone all the way to a UDFA.  His combine was horrible as well.  But he was kept around all year on the PS, when Bills routinely moved people on and off the PS.  This camp season is going to be huge for him, because I fully expect some more youth coming into the OL this offseason.

 

Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5)

 

I would rather stay away from buying OL in the UFA market, as they get pretty pricey however there are also some bargains to be found, and with a constricted cap year I could see some 1 year deals given out to vets similar to Spain and Williams, and make them play to their next contract either with us or elsewhere.

 

Interior (OG/C):

 

Joe Thurney, 29, OG (Likely 12M AAV)

Brandon Scherff, 30, OG (likely 10M AAV)

Nick Martin, 28, C (Likely 7M AAV)

DJ Fluker, 30, OG (1M AAV)

Kelechi Osemele, 32, OG (Likely 1-2M AAV)

 

OTs

 

Taylor Moton, RT, 27 (Likely 12M AAV) – Let Williams walk, get younger and better with another RT from Carolina.

Germain Ifedi, RT, 27 (Likely 1.5M)

Kendall Lamm, RT, 29 (Likely 3M) Marcus Williams, 25 (9.4 AAV) – Long term replacement for Hyde

Cam Robinson, OT, 26 (Likely 12M AAV)

 

Ok to the point of what I would do.

 

I would probably be more dramatic than most, and even the Bills, but this group needs to be upgraded specially on the right side.  So, what I am doing is letting everyone but Ike Beottger walks.  My Priority signing would be Taylor Moton and then depth with a Osemele and Fluker on 1-year deals.  I go into the draft and find my long term replacement at C, and initial OG in the league until ready to move on from Morse.  If I can pull that off the OL looks a little like this going into camp.

 

LT - Dawkins / Bates

LG - Ford / Osemele / Bates

C - Morse / Rookie / Bates

RG - Rookie / Fluker / Bates

RT - Moton / Adams / Bates

 

Next Writeup: WR/TE

 

Past Writeups:

 

Full Overview: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230905-buffalo-bills-offseason-primer-state-of-the-bills/

 

Defensive Line:  https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230921-offseason-primer-position-group-dl/

 

Linebackers: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230960-offseason-primer-position-group-lb/

 

Secondary: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230969-offseason-primer-position-group-secondary/

 

Edited March 4, 2021 by MAJBobby

[NewEra]

I’ll say thanks before I even read it.  I appreciate your work

[947]

Morse has trade value, half the teams in the league need an upgrade Center. Even if they decide to move on, they won't cut him if he could net a 3rd or 4th round pick. I'd only part with him if they absolutely need the cap space to shore up the DL, and retain Mongo.

[BuffaloRebound]

Thanks.  Great read.  In regards to Morse, I think you gotta sign Feliciano or bring in a vet at Center.  You can’t count on Morse being available for 17 games.  For that reason, Morse has either gotta take a pay-cut or be released. 

[First Round Bust]

thanks much, excellent points...I do expect Bills to draft a swing G-RT with the first pick as the draft is suppose to be deep in tackles and Bills will scrutinize for the ability to play both G-OT.   I dont expect to start right away but perhaps in-season... I don't see the replacement for Morse being this pick, G-C,  so this complicates what to do with Feliciano and I say keep unless someone blows our offer away.

 

I see Ike B as the LG and Feliciano retained as RG and backup C to Morse.  Ford likely to be starter at RT until rookie is ready.  Not ideal as you mention Ford is mediocre at best as OT and much better at G which should help the running game.

 

[JGMcD2]

19 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Cody Ford, 25 yrs, Cap Hit: 2.047M, Savings: 307K – The enigma of the OL group, he is probably the most polarizing.  I think he played very well at LG until injury.  It was like they finally found the position that will put him in the best chance for success.  His is athletically challenged on the edge but inside the phone booth much better, then has the power to hold up inside as well.  Putting him in between two established players of Dawkins and Morse unlocked his ability IMO.  It was ashamed he went down with INJ, because he would have been talked about as one of our better lineman IMO.  He is a very effective run blocker and is an above AVG pass blocker inside at OG.  IMO he is slotted right in to start at LG again next year and this position IMO looks solid, with depth needing to be addressed a bit.

Great read as always!! Definitely an extreme result at the end... but that’s not a bad thing. 
 

This portion I quoted above is going to ruffle a lot of feathers. So many posters are convinced he’s a horrible bust. Nice to see someone who has actually spent the time to watch him realizes he’s a pretty effective player. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Thanks, appreciate the write up.

 

Disagree on some points

- I think when you have a top offense, releasing 2/5 of the starters is a risk.  I do want to see us try to upgrade though.

-I lack confidence in Ford. [Edit: by which I don't mean "he's a bust blah blah]  Beane made a point "he's played more games hurt than healthy", which I think to Beane, means we haven't seen his potential yet.  To me it means "Can he stay healthy in the NFL?" 

 

I'm not so sure I agree that Ford was linked to +/- run blocking - if you just look at the Bills rushing yards, no pattern  [Ford played games 1-6 plus 9]  plus it seemed in some games he was unable to use his arms or gain position effectively - possibly due to the injuries Beane alluded to, but...

 

Question: how does Gabe Jackson influence your thinking on FA if at all?

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Thanks, appreciate the write up.

 

Disagree on some points

- I think when you have a top offense, releasing 2/5 of the starters is a risk.  I do want to see us try to upgrade though.

-I lack confidence in Ford.  Beane made a point "he's played more games hurt than healthy", which I think to Beane means we haven't seen his potential.  To me it means "Can he stay healthy in the NFL?"  I'm not so sure I agree that Ford was linked to +/- run blocking

 

Question: how does Gabe Jackson influence your thinking on FA if at all?

To counter, I am only not resigning the right side, but am improving one immediately with Moton.  So I would only really be going into ?? at RG. But IMO the Right side needs to be upgraded it was Bad.  But I get your feeling there and likely the Bills are thinking in line with you.

 

With Gabe Jackson I am not sure if I can get him in the 6-8M range I think I would be ok bringing him in at OG replacing Feliciano.  I dont really want to get in the business to paying OGs in the 12-15M range right now, specially in the constricted cap environment this year.  Could combine the Osemele and Fluker deals if Jackson would be up for a 1 year 8M deal.  

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

To counter, I am only not resigning the right side, but am improving one immediately with Moton.  So I would only really be going into ?? at RG. But IMO the Right side needs to be upgraded it was Bad.  But I get your feeling there and likely the Bills are thinking in line with you.

 

With Gabe Jackson I am not sure if I can get him in the 6-8M range I think I would be ok bringing him in at OG replacing Feliciano.  I dont really want to get in the business to paying OGs in the 12-15M range right now, specially in the constricted cap environment this year.  Could combine the Osemele and Fluker deals if Jackson would be up for a 1 year 8M deal.  

 

 

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

 

If I could say one thing to Bobby Johnson and Brandon Bean, it would be "Step Away from the Positional Flexibility a Bit"

 

Sometimes being focused on a guy who can fill multiple roles, takes away from looking at guys who can do one thing, really really well.  Sometimes it detracts from developing a guy who can do one thing really well.

 

I think that happened when the Bills kept some other guys and traded away Wyatt Teller - they went for positional flexibility over high ceiling as a guard.  Beane also commented that Boettger took a step when they decided to have him focus on one position.  Assuming Ford's health issues are all related and he can get past them this season, I think it might be hindering Ford.  Beane made it clear he considers him still in play at RT.  I think Ford would benefit by the Bills slotting him in at one position and asking him to do "One Thing Well".

 

But if Ford is their best choice at LG, and we try to address RT in the draft then I would like to see the Bills draft the best RT they can and to Hell with positional flexibility.

 

For positional flexibility, I would like them to bring back Mongo if they can.  I think it's possible that his play was more hindered this year than we knew (hence the "Courage" award) and he is, IMO, pretty unique in being able to play either side or center at any moment with minimal drop off.  Keep him and Bates and bring in a battle at RG and RT through draft and FA.  I would think, look for a rookie RG with potential to develop at C (analogous to Eric Wood)

[MAJBobby]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

 

If I could say one thing to Bobby Johnson and Brandon Bean, it would be "Step Away from the Positional Flexibility a Bit"

 

Sometimes being focused on a guy who can fill multiple roles, takes away from looking at guys who can do one thing, really really well.  Sometimes it detracts from developing a guy who can do one thing really well.

 

I think that happened when the Bills kept some other guys and traded away Wyatt Teller - they went for positional flexibility over high ceiling as a guard.  Beane also commented that Boettger took a step when they decided to have him focus on one position.  Assuming Ford's health issues are all related and he can get past them this season, I think it might be hindering Ford.  Beane made it clear he considers him still in play at RT.  I think Ford would benefit by the Bills slotting him in at one position and asking him to do "One Thing Well".

 

But if Ford is their best choice at LG, and we try to address RT in the draft then I would like to see the Bills draft the best RT they can and to Hell with positional flexibility.

 

For positional flexibility, I would like them to bring back Mongo if they can.  I think it's possible that his play was more hindered this year than we knew (hence the "Courage" award) and he is, IMO, pretty unique in being able to play either side or center at any moment with minimal drop off.  Keep him and Bates and bring in a battle at RG and RT through draft and FA.  I would think, look for a rookie RG with potential to develop at C (analogous to Eric Wood)

I agree.  I think your depth needs to have that positional flexibility but your top 5 should be experts in the position they play IMO.  With only carrying 7 active and maybe 9 on the roster, your depth needs that flexibility and why Bates IMO is so valuable to the Bills.  

 

Teller imo was traded away because of how they wanted to build the OL with a priority focus on pass blocking, he still struggled there in CLE, but was an elite Run Blocker, so he fell into a team to highlight his skill set.  I think he would have not reached the highly talked about Teller that you got in CLE with Buffalo because the amount we pass, it would have exposed him.  Just my thinking on that, if his pass protection was better he still would be on Buffalo IMO.

[Don Otreply]

Nice write up, I see your train of thought as being quite reasonable, pass blocking as you said is number one for what they want, and if we can get better on the run side while making upgrades that would be gravy,  but like was said, replacing so much of the O line at once could be problematic, should be exciting and frustrating to watch it all come together. 

[John from Riverside]

The only replacement I want to see is at RG the less changes but improvements to run blocking the better

[The Jokeman]

If we don't bring Ty Nsehke back I'd like to see us take a chance on Le'Raven Clark from the Colts, as he has played both guard and tackle for them. He might never be a full time starter but think could be valuable backup piece. 

[Aussie Joe]

Doubt the Panthers are letting Moton walk...

 

I guess Williams would be plan B.. just because things didn’t work out with Spain, I don’t think you should assume that may happen with Williams.. If you want to make him a serious offer that is a chance of landing him I would think you would need to offer him around 3 years $30m and guarantee him $15-16M at a minimum which would see him here for two years... I’d be ok with that given his play in 2020

[MAJBobby]

21 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Doubt the Panthers are letting Moton walk...

 

I guess Williams would be plan B.. just because things didn’t work out with Spain, I don’t think you should assume that may happen with Williams.. If you want to make him a serious offer that is a chance of landing him I would think you would need to offer him around 3 years $30m and guarantee him $15-16M at a minimum which would see him here for two years... I’d be ok with that given his play in 2020

I dont think they do either, but if they do I am all over him, then will know more in about a week when tags and such start happening.  Williams Market value is 8M AAV.  I am not going much over that his play also is right around that dollar amount as well.  Not assuming it will happen with Williams what did with Spain as well, but that is a concern you have to have because it was similar to play in CAR his play dropped as he got comfortable.  And should ALWAYS have that concern when talking to a player with that history coming off a solid Contract year performance, there is enough history in this league that tells teams to protect themselves when working long term contracts for players that have that history.

[BillsFan1988]

3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Sorry for being a bit late, had a ton of travel for work.  Will try and get the rest of the offense finished up before UFA starts

 

Offensive Line – I was just OK with the OL play.  While they were actually pretty good for most of the season pass blocking their run blocking really suffered all year, and really fell off the cliff when we lost Ford to INJ.  I have a feeling a lot of people are not going to like what I write about this group, but I think I see how the Bills want to build the OL, and that is pass blocking as the priority, over run blocking.  Obviously, they would like that OL that is good at both, but if they seem to lean to the pass blocking more if there is a flawed player at the position.  I will continue to look at the OL in the future under that context, Pass Blocking is the Priority over the Mauler.  IMO this was the lowest performing group in the offense, particularly because their inability to run block really forced one sided offense, which was fine when our WRs were all healthy, when they were not (KC game) it became evident their struggles.

 

Bills UFAs:

 

Ty Nsekhe, 36 yrs, OT, 2020 AAV: 5M, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – He has been depth since he is come here and has provided pretty good depth and seemed to play good enough when he has had to play.  However, with the cap crunch and the age factor with him I think it is time to move on and look to get younger in this position I think they have that youth on the roster already and I will get into that later, but I think Nsekhe is gone, unless we are talking Vet minimum here.

 

Daryl Williams, 29 yrs, RT, 2020 AAV: 2.25M, SPOTRAC Market Value: 7.8M – He had a couple games with where he struggled really late in the season and playoffs mostly, rushers with speed he has some issues with, however I think that Market Value is about right on him.  So, If I can get him back on a 3-year extension in the range of a 6-8M AAV I am good with bringing him back.  We start getting over that 8M and I think I am willing to let him walk.  As one of the better linemen this year I would look at bringing him back, but I would want the contract protected as well, with an easy out after the year, like Spain I think there is that chance he can go that route of Spain as well gets a contact and then starts regressing, forcing to move on.  That is what scares me about him, and even as one of the better linemen this season there is nothing with Williams that tells me that he cannot be upgraded, so I would also want to protect against that, may be a player that Bills let hit the market and see what happens with that, I don’t think there is a must need with Williams of not letting him hit the market first.

 

Jon Feliciano, 29 yrs, OG, 2020 AAV: 3.625M, SPOTRAC Market Value: 8.3M – Another I think could very well walk, I do not think he is worth the market value of 8.3M AAV, also I don’t think he really is that great.  He was known for his nastiness and power yet got abused in both the run game and pass game against power.  The Chiefs game he really struggled, and if that is who we are measuring against we need to get better here, not pay good cap space to tread water.  The issue I am having saying out right let him walk is Morse Situation, with another concussion Bills may be forced to bring him back this year so they have a BU Center as well, protecting themselves in the future if they do not get a Rookie to start grooming for Morse.  I would be fine either way letting him walk or re-signing (depending on the terms) But I think he is actually worth closer to 5-7M AAV. 

 

Brian Winters, OG, 30 yrs, 2020 AAV 3.0M, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – Provided depth, albeit not that great of depth imo.  With declining play and youth on the roster I think Winters walks.  I would let him walk.  Had a shot with Ford INJ and Spain release to secure a new contact instead lost that job to Ike Boettger (who I thought played fine) so moving on.

 

Ike Boettger, OG, 27 yrs, 2020 AAV 570K, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A (RFA) - I would likely qualify Ike at 2nd round value RFA tender this year or re-sign Boettger to a 3-year deal in the 2M AAV range.  I think he has shown he can start in a pinch, I would not sign him as a starter, and that is how I think I am able to keep his AAV down.  Gives him a nice raise and some security.  At 2-3M AAV we have a nice depth OG, however I also understand with him wanted to move on, but as depth I would keep him.  This provides security if you let Feliciano walk (or move him to Center). 

 

On Contract OL:

 

Mitch Morse, 29 yrs, Cap Hit 10.34M, Savings 4.8M:  In my opinion any talk of release here is strictly health related with the concussions.  He is a very good pass blocking pivot and is athletic to be able to move, getting to second level and pulling, however at the POA he is a little light and struggles against power.  However not the biggest issue, not an issue at all on the OL except for the health issues.  I personally would keep him this year because I don’t think I am getting his caliber of play within the 4.8M of savings we would get from a release.  However, this is where I let Feliciano walk, draft Morse’s future replacement, and let him play next to Morse as an OG.  However, Bills do have to start planning for life after Mitch Morse, and I think that planning should start this year.  I know people are looking at this as a cap savings cut but would make a hole you have to fill.  So let’s say you like Feliciano here, that’s fine as well, I think it is a downgrade, but then you would want to get Feliciano under contract for about 7M a year, that is his AAV in 2020 and the Savings from Morse. 

 

Dion Dawkins, 27 yrs, Cap Hit: 11.395M:  Dawkins was our most consistent and best OL this season.  He once again showed people he is one of the better LTs in this league.  Could this position be better?  Maybe and then sliding Dawkins to RT, but I don’t think that is a need.  I know there are a lot of people I have talked to that say he isn’t good and that is shown because when Josh Scrambled, he breaks out away from him, meaning Dawkins isn’t blocking, that is a wrong assumption, Josh just has a natural tendency to break right when he needs too.  Most of the pressure this year am from the interior and the RT side.  He is not going anywhere anytime soon unless they get a better LT and slide him to the right side.  My opinion if you want that to happen just go get me a top end RT and not force the position change.  He does struggle with run blocking, which to me is weird he has the power to be effective there, but a lot of times Run Blocking is more of a mindset than anything, and I just do not think he has that mindset, Was better in the beginning of the season with Ford next to him, than later in the season.

 

Cody Ford, 25 yrs, Cap Hit: 2.047M, Savings: 307K – The enigma of the OL group, he is probably the most polarizing.  I think he played very well at LG until injury.  It was like they finally found the position that will put him in the best chance for success.  His is athletically challenged on the edge but inside the phone booth much better, then has the power to hold up inside as well.  Putting him in between two established players of Dawkins and Morse unlocked his ability IMO.  It was ashamed he went down with INJ, because he would have been talked about as one of our better lineman IMO.  He is a very effective run blocker and is an above AVG pass blocker inside at OG.  IMO he is slotted right in to start at LG again next year and this position IMO looks solid, with depth needing to be addressed a bit.

 

Ryan Bates, 24 yrs, OG/OT/C, Cap Hit: 850K, Savings: 850K – This would be an easy cool savings of close to 1M is he was released.  However, you will not find a depth OT, OG, C for 850K.  His value is ability to play every position on the OL.  I would have expected him to play more than he did this year, but we were pretty healthy on the OL with the exception of Ford and a couple nicks here and there.  But just that depth of all 5-position filled under 1M dollars is too valuable to move on from.  When ever he did play since he has been here, he has not looked that he cannot play.  I am maybe a bit of a Bates truther, but find me another team that can fill 5 positions of depth under 1M dollars.

 

Jordan Devey, 33 yrs, OG, Cap Hit: 860K, Savings: 860K – Camp Fodder, I don’t expect anything from him.  Will be cut and pocket the 860K savings after draft or camp.

 

Trey Adams, 25 yrs, OT, Cap Hit: 780K, Savings: 780K – I think he will be given the first shot at the swing OT spot.  I liked him coming out of Washington last year and was happy when Bills signed him as a UDFA.  He was an elite OL in college and then INJ took their tool and cause the major draft slip, without his INJ he likely doesn’t leave the first round let alone all the way to a UDFA.  His combine was horrible as well.  But he was kept around all year on the PS, when Bills routinely moved people on and off the PS.  This camp season is going to be huge for him, because I fully expect some more youth coming into the OL this offseason.

 

Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5)

 

I would rather stay away from buying OL in the UFA market, as they get pretty pricey however there are also some bargains to be found, and with a constricted cap year I could see some 1 year deals given out to vets similar to Spain and Williams, and make them play to their next contract either with us or elsewhere.

 

Interior (OG/C):

 

Joe Thurney, 29, OG (Likely 12M AAV)

Brandon Scherff, 30, OG (likely 10M AAV)

Nick Martin, 28, C (Likely 7M AAV)

DJ Fluker, 30, OG (1M AAV)

Kelechi Osemele, 32, OG (Likely 1-2M AAV)

 

OTs

 

Taylor Moton, RT, 27 (Likely 12M AAV) – Let Williams walk, get younger and better with another RT from Carolina.

Germain Ifedi, RT, 27 (Likely 1.5M)

Kendall Lamm, RT, 29 (Likely 3M) Marcus Williams, 25 (9.4 AAV) – Long term replacement for Hyde

Cam Robinson, OT, 26 (Likely 12M AAV)

 

Ok to the point of what I would do.

 

I would probably be more dramatic than most, and even the Bills, but this group needs to be upgraded specially on the right side.  So, what I am doing is letting everyone but Ike Beottger walks.  My Priority signing would be Taylor Moton and then depth with a Osemele and Fluker on 1-year deals.  I go into the draft and find my long term replacement at C, and initial OG in the league until ready to move on from Morse.  If I can pull that off the OL looks a little like this going into camp.

 

LT - Dawkins / Bates

LG - Ford / Osemele / Bates

C - Morse / Rookie / Bates

RG - Rookie / Fluker / Bates

RT - Moton / Adams / Bates

 

Next Writeup: WR/TE

 

Past Writeups:

 

Full Overview: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230905-buffalo-bills-offseason-primer-state-of-the-bills/

 

Defensive Line:  https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230921-offseason-primer-position-group-dl/

 

Linebackers: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230960-offseason-primer-position-group-lb/

 

Secondary: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230969-offseason-primer-position-group-secondary/

 

I like your idea I would just like to add to it forget about Boettger unless u want to sign him to be a bkup. Also no Fluker instead give 4mil to Denzel Good to play RG . DG got his chance to play last yr and was a force for the Raiders on there line. He can also play multiple positions on the line and he's familiar with Bobby Johnson from his time in Indy. 

[Aussie Joe]

8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I dont think they do either, but if they do I am all over him, then will know more in about a week when tags and such start happening.  Williams Market value is 8M AAV. 

People are pointing to the Spotrac valuation as his market value, but  I posted an interview with Mike Ginnitti last week where he said he wouldnt be surprised if he gets $12m ...which indicates to me that he has heard some market noise since the original valuation was provided ...

 

 

 

 

Edited March 4, 2021 by Aussie Joe

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

People are pointing to the Spotrac valuation as his market value, but  I posted an interview with Mike Ginnitti last week where he said he wouldnt be surprised if he gets $12m ...which indicates to me that he has heard some market noise since the original valuation was provided ...

 

 

 

 

I get it in terms of one persons valuation.  I am fine letting him walk then his play isnt over 10M a year play.  Just my feeling I have been pretty good at gauging the OL market since Incognito was here.   IF I am getting into the Double Digits with Williams I am going to sign Moton or get one of the premier LTs and move Dawkins at that point.  But I also know I dont run the Bills and they tend to not do what I call for in some of these, but I try to see how they built a specific Position Group and stay with that philosophy for the most part and add my flair.  I just dont think the OL is as good (specially on the Right) as Josh made them seem.

[Aussie Joe]

17 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I get it in terms of one persons valuation. 

One person sure - but a guy that makes a living out of it..

[JMF2006]

Nice write up OP

 

I have full confidence that Beane will do his best to protect "The Franchise"