An Offseason Scenario I Put Together

[BillsFan1988]

Btw check out Wr Tj Vasher from Texas Tech I'm hearing he's gonna be a late rd pk or even UDFA . To me he got crazy skills and is huge 6'6 220lbs just needs to refine his gm some route running etc etc. 

[glazeduck]

9 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

Btw check out Wr Tj Vasher from Texas Tech I'm hearing he's gonna be a late rd pk or even UDFA . To me he got crazy skills and is huge 6'6 220lbs just needs to refine his gm some route running etc etc. 

Jonathan Adams Jr. is my late round, big wr of choice. Vasher's interesting but I'm not sure he'll ever have the speed and agility to separate as needed. 

[HOUSE]

Sign Duke Williams long term before he slips away

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Foolish??  He has been mediocre the past two years.  Doesn't suck, but he is a big reason why we can't run consistently well up the middle.  (And we can save money that needs to go to other positions by cutting him)  When it comes down to it, Feliciano is a tougher hard nosed blocker then Morse.  An interior starting line of Boettger Feliciano and Ford, and adding a FA or draft pick to compete at Guard would be solid.

yes. Foolish to cut your best interior offensive lineman to save 4 million dollars. Foolish to think that a replacement level guard is better at center than Morse. Foolish to think that you improve your offensive line by gutting it. Foolish. 

[KGun12TD]

Thank you so much for this!!!

[Victory Formation]

2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Morse isn’t getting cut. It would be foolish and it isn’t happening.

Well.. Yes and No. 

 

Is he the answer long term at center? Most likely not. Now if someone like Creed Humphrey was available at #61? Perhaps, but would we create a hole at a position where we have a solid player already when our LB and DL units are in despair? Unlikely.
 

Quinn Meinerz is also a good looking kid and might be there in the 3rd, if that happens Morse could be a goner too. He would most likely be a TC cut or trade. Could likely get a pick for Morse. It really depends if we’re going BPA or not and what we do in FA.

[GunnerBill]

The Bills need to address corner somewhere. I also find the first two picks of the draft a bit safe..... although while a 3rd on Nico Collins is a reach for me that is the opposite of safe he is a low floor but high ceiling guy. 

[GunnerBill]

On the free agency if they are gonna pay Jaylon Brown that money I'd rather just keep Milano. Disagree that he would be an upgrade. Personally I don't think they spend free agency $$s there. I think they are comfortable with Edmunds and Klein as starters if needs be and will draft a guy day 2 or day 3.

 

Edit: Hankins and Okwara would be nice pickups though.

Edited March 2, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, glazeduck said:

It's worth pointing out that the 2 most massive QB developments of this past generation have both come working with Morse. 

 

 

 

 

 

Impossible to connect those dots.  But.....since the Chiefs went to consecutive SBs as soon a they dumped Morse, it's time for Bills to do the same (if you are implying some causation...).

 

Also,  I assume OP is letting "Top Dollar" walk?

 

And why is Tre White going to revise the contract he just signed?

[TC in St. Louis]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

Well.. Yes and No. 

 

Is he the answer long term at center? Most likely not. Now if someone like Creed Humphrey was available at #61? Perhaps, but would we create a hole at a position where we have a solid player already when our LB and DL units are in despair? Unlikely.
 

Quinn Meinerz is also a good looking kid and might be there in the 3rd, if that happens Morse could be a goner too. He would most likely be a TC cut or trade. Could likely get a pick for Morse. It really depends if we’re going BPA or not and what we do in FA.

Quinn Meinerz is a beast.  He'll probably go in the late 2nd or early 3rd.  He dominated at the Senior Bowl, and is a Division III guy.  Reminds me of that small school lineman who is on Tampa now...what's his name?  Ali Marpet from Hofstra.  I think he'll be an asset.  I hope we take him, if he's still there at the end of the 3rd.  

[Mark Vader]

Great write-up @H2o.

 

I would like to keep John Brown, but only if he takes a pay cut.

I think the Bills should hold onto Morse, and see what happens in training camp.

Butler & Jefferson can go, they are replaceable. Addison can stay if he takes a pay cut.

 

I like your re-signing of players, except for Brian Winters. He's horrid.

 

I'm fine with adding Romeo Okwara, but I'd rather go after Carl Lawson or Trey Hendrickson.

Jayon Brown is fine, but I don't see the Bills pursuing a Linebacker in free agency.

Johnathan Hankins would be a nice addition and more realistic than Dalvin Tomlinson.

I would like to see the Bills make a go at Jonnu Smith. He would help our Tight End position a lot. Even if that doesn't happen, I think the Bills will find a veteran Tight End that they can sign for 1 year.

 

Your draft is very solid.

I would welcome Trevon Moehrig & Daviyon Nixon to this team. Great youth for positions that we will need for the future.

As a Michigan fan, I think Nico Collins is a very good WR. Not a speedy receiver, but he has great height and very reliable hands and does a very good job of getting open. Your note on how he excelled in 2019 with Shea Patterson as the QB, speaks volumes. Although, I don't know if Collins lasts that late in the 3rd round.

Daelin Hayes & Garret Wallow are both intriguing project players.

 

Again, loved the effort you put into this. 

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Impossible to connect those dots.  But.....since the Chiefs went to consecutive SBs as soon a they dumped Morse, it's time for Bills to do the same (if you are implying some causation...).

 

Also,  I assume OP is letting "Top Dollar" walk?

 

And why is Tre White going to revise the contract he just signed?

He's not going to lose any money, neither him nor Dawkins. Just converting their base salary over to signing bonus so we can work the cap figures. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

7 hours ago, H2o said:

This will be an offseason like no other we have seen in a long time. With the cap decreasing, where it had been growing exponentially over the last few years, it is going to make things a bit challenging. Beane will have to navigate this whole situation and really hit on the moves he makes, both in FA and the draft. I don't know if this is anything that he would do, but this is a scenario I put together. First thing we'll have to do is take care of things at OBD with whom we re-sign and whom we cut. Right now we only have about $3.3M in cap space at the current projection.  

 

Cuts:

John Brown - Saves almost $8M in cap. I would rather resign McKenzie for less than 1/3 of what Brown is making.

Mitch Morse - Saves $4.8M in cap. Morse has never really lived up to the contract, but he has been solid. Still, you don't know which head injury will be his last.

Quinton Jefferson - Saves $6.5M in cap. He was decent, but I think we an easily fill his production with someone else at a cheaper rate. 

Vernon Butler - Saves $6.8M in cap. I know he was played out of position at the 1-Tech, but we can get similar production for cheaper. 

Lee Smith - Saves $2.25M in cap. It really is time. Bye Lee. 

Mario Addison - Saves $6.16M in cap. He'll be 34 when the season gets going and he didn't add much to the defense last year. 

 

At this point we would be sitting with close to $38M in cap space and could save more money with a couple of restructures to Dawkins and possibly Tre. Let's just say Beane restructures both of them to give us another $8M-$10M and we end up with $46M-$48M in total cap space. 

 

Re-sign:

McKenzie - (3 yrs $6M w/ $4M gtd) It's not a big contract. I don't see him getting more anywhere else. I see value on ST and in the offense for us.

 

Feliciano - (3 yrs $19M w/ $13M gtd) Feliciano wants to be here and I think we want him back, but we won't overpay. This gives him an uptick and we move him to C. 

 

D. Williams - (3 yrs $24M w/ $16M gtd) Williams had a tremendous bounce-back year and was a key cog on our OL. This would be top 10 RT $$$. I think it's enough to get it done.

 

Ike Boettger - RFA Tender

 

Bojo - RFA tender

 

Wallace - RFA Tender

 

Winters - 2 yrs $3M w/ $1.5M gtd (I don't really like it that much either, but he is a cheap depth option that knows the offense)

 

Nsekhe - 2yrs $4M w/ $2M gtd 

 

FA:

Romeo Okwara - DE - (4 yrs $32M w/ $24M gtd) He would be an upgrade @ DE for a reasonable rate. Reminds me of a younger version of Jerry Hughes and he's only 25. He can also take over for Hughes after 2021. He had a solid 2018 with 7.5 sacks, but had a down 2019. Then in 2020 he put it all together getting 10 sacks, 31 pressures, 10 QB hurries, and 10 QB hits. He also plays the run well at the position and is effective from either side of the DL.

 

Jayon Brown - LB - (4 yrs $40M w/ $28M gtd) Imo, he's an upgrade over Milano though Milano will likely get more $$$ on the open market. He's just as good in coverage even though he may not be as fast. He's a better tackler than Milano and has more pop in his pads. He played an inside LB role in that Tennessee hybrid type defense, but would be able to handle the WLB responsibilities here with absolutely no drop off.  

 

Johnathan Hankins - DT - (3 yrs $12M w/ $8M gtd)We all know what was missing up front this past year. A run stuffing 1-Tech that would eat up blockers while making plays inside. Hankins plays well against the run, but offers no pass rush for the most part. He is at the least a heavy rotational back up to Star, but could very well end up the starter. Either way it would give us a nice rotation in the interior of the DL and allow Oliver to get after it. It would also allow us to keep our big guys up front rested not having to lean on one guy all of the time. 

 

Draft: 

1. Trevon Moehrig / S / TCU - The nation's Jim Thorpe Award winner in 2020. Moehrig is an athletic freak who can squat 600lbs, bench 400lbs, and runs a 40 in the 4.5's at 6'2" 210lbs. He has a lot of positional flexibility being able to play both FS and SS, but he will eventually take over for Hyde in this defense. We could run that three S look against pass heavy offenses as Moehrig can cover anyone on the field. He takes good angles and lowers the boom on ball carriers when given the opportunity. 

 

2. Daviyon Nixon / DT / Iowa - Another guy to get after it from the interior of the defense. Between Oliver, Hankins, Nixon, Star, Zimmer, and Phillips that interior is looking VERY capable of causing opposing offenses problems. Nixon plays with power, quickness, and uses his hands well when shedding blocks. 

 

3. Nico Collins / WR / Michigan - At 6'4" and 215lbs Collins is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Especially hard to handle when you add him to an offense that already has Diggs, Davis, and Beasley to account for. He is a true vertical threat that uses his body to shield defenders, has an extra gear when he gets in any kind of space, and can go up the ladder to snag any ball Josh would hang up for him. He opted out in 2020, but averaged 20 yds per reception in 2019 even with Shea Patterson as his QB. 

 

5a. Daelin Hayes / DE / Notre Dame - Hayes reminds me a bit of Shaq Lawson. He didn't have the college production of Lawson, but he also didn't have four 1st Rounders playing by his side up front either. He is decent at setting the edge and can be a 5-8 sack per year type of player on a rotational basis. (You knew I had to go with a ND player at least once in the draft ) 

 

5b. Garret Wallow / LB / TCU - Going back to the TCU well again for another defensive player. Wallow was a S who converted to LB in college. He does well in Zone coverage and blitzing off of the edge when his number is called. He's depth and a developmental WLB to add to our defense. 

 

6. Javian Hawkins / RB / Louisville - Hawkins is lightening in a bottle, but on the smallish side standing at 5'9". He has a good build for his size though at 195lbs. He's that home run threat type of guy though who can hit a seam and take the ball 80 yards to the house. His 40 time is expected to be between the low 4.4's to the high 4.3's and you can see on the tape he is that fast in pads. Not really used in the passing game at Louisville so he will need some refinement there, but he could end up being a steal this late in the draft. 

 

7a. Tommy Doyle / OT / Miami (OH) - A developmental prospect who has the ability to evolve into our swing OT off of the bench. He has good functional playing strength, but will need to grow in pass pro. 

 

7b. Jimmy Morrissey / C / Pitt - A developmental C prospect who started a bunch of games at Pitt. He was solid, but is more of a finesse player than one who plays with a mean streak. He still could provide depth along the OL. 

 

Our lineups next year would be as follows:

 

OL: Dawkins-Ford-Feliciano-Boettger-Williams (Starting) Bench - Nsekhe, Bates, Winters, Doyle or Morrissey

WR: Diggs, Davis, Beasley, Collins, McKenzie, Hodgins

RB: Singletary, Moss, Hawkins

TE: Knox, Sweeney, Gilliam(FB/TE)

QB: Allen, Webb or Fromm

 

DE: Hughes, Okwara, Epenesa, Hayes, D. Johnson

DT: Oliver, Star, Nixon, Hankins, Zimmer, Phillips

LB: Edmunds, Brown, Klein, Wallow, Dodson, Matakevic

S: Poyer, Hyde, Moehrig, J. Johnson, Neal

CB: White, Jackson, T. Johnson, Wallace, Lewis

K: Bass

P: Bojo

LS: Ferguson

 

I know there are things I didn't address which other people say would be necessary such as CB, but I believe an improved pass rush makes all of your CB's look better. I also love what Moehrig will bring to the table for this defense on the field and I think it gives us options. Okwara will be much better than Addison. Epenesa I think takes another step forward with a full offseason of work in the weight room to get his body right and working on his craft. Hayes and D. Johnson are capable of making plays. Throw Hankins/Star into the lineup as space eaters (which we didn't have last year) so Oliver, Nixon, and Zimmer can get after it up front. Now the interior looks like a strength as well. I think that Edmunds and Brown are also a better tandem than Edmunds and Milano. On top of that, for passing downs you can have Oliver and Nixon both on the field pushing the pocket from the middle. Backup QB is sketchy. TE still isn't solved also if you don't believe Knox will get any better, but you can only do so much with the cap this year. Overall I think this team keeps us contending for the AFC and a SB next year while starting to position us for when other roster turnover starts to take place. 

 

I'm OK with most of the cuts except Morse.  Initially I was on board, but read enough to agree with many that can re-structure his deal and basically the difference between cutting him and keeping him on cheap deal saves around $1 mil and doesn't create another roster opening.  For that little savings, keep him. 

 

I'd also re-structure: Diggs, Beasley, Hyde, and Matakevic for starters gaining some more cash.

 

Agree with signing close as top they can afford edge rusher and LB help

 

Not sure I'd sign Williams, think his price tag will be too high. would rather draft much higher a tackle.  Don't like the o-line that much with Nsekhe and Winters, would be surprised if either of them are back. 

 

I'd go with a line of Dawkins-Ford-Morse-Feliciano-rookie and bench of Boettger, Bates, Mid level FA signing, low draft pick

 

You have 6 DT listed, they'd not keeping that many and your plan would leave them to have to cut cheap rookie contracts, considering how strapped they are for cash, that doesn't sound like a smart move.  Based on your plan, you'd be doing a similar thing a DE too, cutting rookie contracts.

 

Too many safety's not enough CB, need to switch out one, probably don't draft the safety, instead draft CB fairly high.

 

You don't address TE at all, based on the team end of season comments think they want an upgrade there and likely need to bring in a vet as takes awhile for a rookie to learn the position.  To me is signing three fairly big FA contracts, would go with edge, LB, TE, plus mid level Oline.

 

Would be surprised if they let both Roberts and Jones go for ST play

 

No idea on players to draft but would more go by positions and would draft in order: OT, LB, CB, WR, OL, LB

[John from Riverside]

Anything that brings winters back as a no for me

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if this is a very similar outline to the offseason. 

 

I agree with the OL. I think we'll see those 5 starting. 

 

I agree with the cuts. 

 

The additions will likely be different but I can see them attacking the offseason in a similar fashion. 

[Mr. WEO]

9 hours ago, H2o said:

He's not going to lose any money, neither him nor Dawkins. Just converting their base salary over to signing bonus so we can work the cap figures. 

 

Why don't they structure it that way before he signs?  

[DCbillsfan]

Nice effort OP.  I believe Bills need to upgrade their OL.  I don't see Bills bringing back Winters and Nyseke.  Winters just isn't that good and Nyseke is 35 or so.

 

Regarding Feliciano.  I like his grit but he's not very talented.  He's really not a starting guard.  Maybe sign him to be backup IOL.

 

Regarding Morse.  He makes a lot of money, hasn't played at a level commensurate with his pay, and has a concussion history.  That all said, I think he's a Bill next season.  The Bills have higher priorities to address.  

 

I would try to re-sign Williams but that might be tough from a dollar standpoint.  If Bills re-sign Williams, I'd draft a Center to play guard in 2021 and Center in 2022.  Have Ford, Boettger, and possibly Feliciano compete for other guard spot.

 

If Bills don't/can't re-sign Williams, I'd sign an OG in free agency who's a proven starter and then draft an OT early in the draft to play RT.

 

The Bills have needs at CB, TE, DE among others but I believe they need to prioritize protecting Allen and try to upgrade running game.  Lack of running game hurts them inside the red zone.

[H2o]

20 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Why don't they structure it that way before he signs?  

Because they didn't call Miss Cleo to find out there was going to be cap issues in 2021 due to Covid first. 

[Paup 1995MVP]

16 hours ago, glazeduck said:

It's worth pointing out that the 2 most massive QB developments of this past generation have both come working with Morse. 

 

I don't know how much that actually means, or if it's just an anomaly, but a player's worth to an organization can certainly be a lot greater that just what you see on the field. Furthermore, yeah, our running game sucked this year, but how did we manage that? We threw all day. I know there's a school of thought that you still have to run the ball to win, and yes McD has even said as much, but when your OL is built to pass protect, and your RBs are at or below avg. and you've got a great QB... at what point do you have to question whether or not restructuring to fit a "should" is worth it?

Good thoughts in your post.  Morse has been a solid pass protector.  And we are a passing team at this point.  I guess I like my center to be a bit more of a mauler as well.  

16 hours ago, whatdrought said:

yes. Foolish to cut your best interior offensive lineman to save 4 million dollars. Foolish to think that a replacement level guard is better at center than Morse. Foolish to think that you improve your offensive line by gutting it. Foolish. 

I disagree w your first premise.  So it falls apart for me from there.  I will take Dawkins in that spot as our best lineman.  Thought he made great strides this past season.  And I just happen to like Feliciano's style of play more.  Morse doesn't suck.  He just has not dominated like I was hoping he would.  

[Don Otreply]

In reference to the OPs 38 million in cap space after all the cuts..., this is misleading, in which they will need to sign players that don’t suck to fill the all the holes created, so..., after the holes get filled with players that are as good or better..., how much of that 38 million is left??? Not a hell of a lot I’m guessing... the deal is as it always has been, if you pay peanuts, you get what you paid for... it ain’t so easy to “just” cut a guy and replace him for less money, these guys may be stupid but their agents aren’t, none of this is gonna be on the cheap if we want sustained success.., Beane has his work cut out for him, I believe he is up to the task, but it always takes two to tango...