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Bills Salary Cap deep dive with Spotrac's Mike Ginetti


Aussie Joe

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4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

More nonsense from you. "The Star signing was roundly viewed as the worst FA deal handed out in the NFL in 2018" ... by you and a few sad others on these boards, and by PFF. PFF's stats consistently understate the value of a space eater.

 

Generally, though, it was thought to make a great deal of sense.

 

By the way, here's a challenge: Find, say, three mentions of the word "travesty" in the contemporary coverage of the Lotulelei trade. You're the one who brought up that word. You said, "... even then it was a travesty." Find the word travesty, back then, and give us a couple of links. I'll tell you what, to give you some scope, I'll give you a few mulligans. Find two contemporaneous mentions of the word "travesty" at the time about the Lotulelei signing (outside your own posts and the other wildly negative saddoes on these boards), among the media. And I'll throw in these Dictionary.com synonyms of "travesty" to help you out:  burlesque, farce, mockery perversion, sham, and laughingstock. 

 

Hell, I'll throw in catastrophe, calamity, debacle, tragedy, fiasco, washout, ruination, bane and blight, just for good measure. Go ahead, find 'em, and again, not on the boards but among actual media.

 

Hell, I'll even start you off with the results of my google search for contemporary reactions to Star's signing with the Bills:

 

 

"This will be a key signing for Buffalo as it tries to upgrade a defense that ranked 29th against the run in 2017. Lotulelei, of course, has connections to coach Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane from Carolina, where he was a first-round pick, No. 14 overall, in the 2013 draft. And based on his performance last season for Carolina when he played 58.9 percent of the defensive snaps, he was more effective when McDermott was the Panthers’ defensive coordinator Lotulelei is a 6-foot-2, 315-pounder who got off to a great start in his NFL career, but last year wasn’t quite so effective. Still, what he does best may be what the Bills need most — he can occupy blockers in the middle of the line, which will enable the linebackers to make plays."

 

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2018/03/13/star-lotulelei-free-agent-buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-carolina-panthers/419580002/

 

 

"On the surface, a five-year, $50 million dollar deal seems a bit hefty for Lotulelei, especially considering that the 28-year-old has only bested the 26-tackle mark once in his career. However, Bills’ general manager Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott are familiar with Lotulelei, as they worked with him in Carolina. They obviously feel as though he’s worth the money."

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/03/15/buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-contract-details/

 

 

"Most significant signing: In terms of financial investment, the headline signing of free agency was defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. Ranked No. 11 among ESPN's top 100 free agents, Lotulelei joined Buffalo on a five-year, $50 million deal with $25 million guaranteed after five seasons with the Carolina Panthers. At $10 million per season, his deal becomes the richest among any player under contract for the Bills after the trades of left tackle Cordy Glenn and quarterback Tyrod Taylor. He is expected to fill the run-stuffing role vacated when the Bills traded Marcell Dareus last season. Adolphus Washington started in Dareus' place the final two months of the season and the results were subpar, with Buffalo allowing the NFL's second-highest average yards per rush inside the tackles, according to ESPN Stats & Information. If Lotulelei can help turn that around, he will be worth it."

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/31490/bills-free-agency-included-star-lotulelei-signing-teams-richest-deal

 

 

And as for whether they turned that around, the Bills went from 9th worst at defensive YPA allowed in 2017 to 9th best at it in 2018.

 

 

 

" 'I’m all for bringing on as many good football players as we can,' Kyle Williams said, referring to Lotulelei. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 311 pounds, Lotulelei was a five-year starter with Carolina after being selected by the Panthers in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Utah.

 

"The native of Tonga is reunited with McDermott, who was Panthers defensive co-ordinator before taking over in Buffalo in January 2017. Bills general manager Brandon Beane is also familiar with Lotulelei and played a role in drafting him after previously serving as Panthers assistant GM. Lotulelei has forced two fumbles and has 11 1/2 sacks in 76 career games, and was voted to the NFL all-rookie team in 2013. His future in Carolina was uncertain after the Panthers signed defensive tackle Kawann Short to a five-year, $80 million contract extension last off-season, and also used a first-round pick for Vernon Butler last year."

 

"Lotulelei’s addition is the latest bold move made by Beane in reshaping Buffalo’s roster since being hired in May to replace Doug Whaley."

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/football/nfl/report-bills-expected-sign-defensive-tackle-star-lotulelei/

 

 

"Why he’s here:
- When he signed on the dotted line in free agency in March, the Bills had an immediate upgrade to a position that played quite poorly all throughout the 2017 season. Star Lotulelei comes in as an immediate starter for the Bills at the one-technique position along the defensive line, boasting a frame, a skill-set that meshes well, and plenty of experience in the very defense that the Bills will be running in the upcoming season. The Bills signed Lotulelei to a long-term deal, meaning they would have no incentive to try and release him at least until the 2020 season, but even then they'd still have to eat a fair amount of cap space to do so. At 28 years old, Lotulelei is right in the prime of his career, so the expectation is that he'll continue at his current playing level for the next two-to-three season. Despite playing in his prime, he doesn't play a high profile position and statistics alone overlook his actual impact on the game.

2018 outlook:
- In the upcoming season, the Bills will hope Lotulelei can be a considerable upgrade to the below average play of Marcell Dareus before the trade, and then of Adolphus Washington at the one-technique defensive tackle spot. Lotulelei's primary responsibilities will be to eat up a blocker or two each play and to allow his more rush-oriented teammates around him to get a one-on-one matchup to make a positive contribution. If Lotulelei is getting pushed around, or even falls on some plays, it makes the offense that much easier to control life at the line of scrimmage -- which was a considerable issue for the Bills during the 2017 season. With high ticket items around him on the defensive line, the Bills will depend on Lotulelei to be the glue that holds the defense together."

 

https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/buffalo-bills-top-20-talents-in-2018-no-13-dt-star-lotulelei

 

 

"Per Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Bills have inked Lotulelei to a new five-year contract that will become official once the new league year begins on Wednesday and free agency officially opens.The signing will help the Bills along the defensive front which suffered greatly after they traded Marcell Dareus to the Jacksonville Jaguars last season. Lotulelei will now provide an anchor for the next few years for a defense being remade in general manager Brandon Beane’s image. It’s a unit that’s suffered plenty of losses in the last year, including Reggie Ragland to the Kansas City Chiefs.

 

"Speaking of the Chiefs, they were reportedly among the interested parties for Lotulelei, the former Carolina Panthers defensive lineman who would have helped fill a significant hole along the line in K.C. Bennie Logan is now a free agent, as is Jarvis Jenkins, and there has been zero buzz concerning either player returning to this point. It was already a thin position and, as of now, the Chiefs have Allen Bailey and Chris Jones as the sole contributors to rely upon up front. Lotulelei has been a reliable anchor along the trenches for the Panthers, starting all 16 games the last two seasons. Last year he had 1.5 sacks and 25 total tackles for Carolina."

 

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2018/03/13/nfl-free-agency-star-lotulelei-will-sign-buffalo-bills/

 

 

"The Buffalo Bills are adding standout defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. What should we expect from the five-year defender with his new team? ... You have to crawl before you can walk. And the team has already been very active this offseason when it comes to improvements. And now new general manager Brandon Beane has hauled in a very familiar face in defensive tackle Star Lotulelei.The former University of Utah standout and 14th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft missed only one game and made 75 regular-season starts for Ron Rivera’s club in Carolina. He’s started all 16 contests each of the past two years and is one of the better run-stoppers around. And that’s very good news for a Buffalo Bills’ defensive unit that could use all the help it can get in that regard.

 

Grade

It’s an immediate upgrade for a defensive unit that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league in each of the past two seasons and under two different systems. This past year, the defense got off to a good start against the run but things appeared to go downhill rapidly once the Bills opted to deal Marcell Dareus.

In this case, Lotulelei played in McDermott’s system for five seasons in Carolina and the learning curve should be non-existent. That being said, this is a player that must improve his performance.

Grade: B+

 

https://fansided.com/2018/03/13/nfl-free-agency-update-star-lotulelei-signs-bills/

 

 

 

 

 

You ridiculously contend that "even then it was a travesty." So I googled "2018 worst FA signings NFL". Guess what. Star wasn't there. Here's what was:

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25760941/best-worst-2018-nfl-free-agent-signings

 

https://www.battleredblog.com/2018/4/17/17245670/2018-nfl-free-agency-the-five-worst-free-agent-signings

 

 

This article listed each team's worst, and Lotulelei didn't even make that list, TE Kroft did.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2827919-every-nfl-teams-worst-free-agent-signing-this-offseason

 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-the-2018-contract-awards-featuring-the-best-and-worst-nfl-signings-of-the-year/

 

 

Lotulelei signing given an "A." (Murphy a "C")

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/12/17103704/2018-nfl-free-agent-grades-trades-offseason-moves

 

 

 

 

There was some mild criticism at the time. Most of the reaction was accepting or mildly positive. But outside PFF-based criticism, the negatives were mostly that they paid a bit too much. But the criticism was mild, and there wasn't all that much of it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Like Ginnitti said......... the optics on it were horrible.

 

This was a guy with a limited market.........a 1 tech without real nose tackle flexibility......projected to make maybe $4m per year in a league where teams are filling that position with guys making $900K..........and he got a $50M deal with half of it guaranteed.

 

His deal was likely driven by Beane comparing Star's market with what Damon Harrison had gotten with the Giants.........but he shouldn't have been a comp...........Harrison was REALLY keeping LB's clean by making 70-80 of his own tackles per year while ACTUALLY drawing constant double teams as a real nose tackle aligned over center not a 1 tech inviting doubles by lining up in the guard/center gap.

 

Beane's first year as GM was pretty awful wrt pro personnel.    He's improved a lot but it's important to remember that he was only semi-involved in personnel decisions in Carolina for two years prior to getting hired as GM in Buffalo.   Most GM's are drawn from the personnel departments rather than the executive assistant pool so it was probably to be expected that his personnel decisions would be a work in progress.   

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14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Star signing was roundly viewed as the worst FA deal handed out in the NFL in 2018........even then it was a travesty.

 

Fake news.

 

Your thoughts and comments, often worth considering, would be easier to absorb if you would bypass the negative hyperbole.

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19 hours ago, First Round Bust said:

spotrac versus over the cap...comparisons, likes-dislikes, comments, preferences...what say you ?  

 

I have found Spotrac a better site for me.  It's easier to read and I feel it has a lot more info.

I specifically like how they break down salary and cap info on individual players.

They also give details on if a player is traded as to cap implications.

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2 hours ago, RochesterLifer said:

Fake news.

 

Your thoughts and comments, often worth considering, would be easier to absorb if you would bypass the negative hyperbole.

 

 

The most "accredited" source that Thurman quoted was ESPN........who also called the Lotulelei signing the Bills worst FA move since 2015 in a more recent article.

 

Forbes called Lotulelei the worst cap value of any DL in the NFL a year after his signing.

 

It was a foolish contract.    No hyperbole necessary.    Thurman doesn't want to include PFF in the criticism because they are HIGHLY critical of his play.

 

I don't think we need a bunch of cherry picked feedback from people on fan sites who don't do their own evaluations of play to have known it was terrible value.

 

They owe him $11M+ guaranteed going into the 4th season since he signed.......they got 3 years of middling play that wouldn't have inspired anyone at ANY pay rate...... and he'd be looking at a league minimum salary if he were a UFA and so inclined to keep playing.    

 

And don't give me any opt-out excuses.........as Jon Feliciano said last summer........Star opted out because his pay was guaranteed anyway,  not because he was just more concerned for the welfare of his family than anyone else.     As Ginitti pointed out......asking players to give money back does not endear them to the organization.      Has backfired twice on Beane now with Incognito and Lotulelei.   Guaranteeing more of his money was a mistake that Beane made without benefit of knowing the NFL would allow opt-outs........but cutting his pay was necessitated because of the terrible initial contract.      

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Star is overpaid.  That's why it was a bad signing.  It limits the cap elsewhere.  Could have drafted similar production or gotten it at much less, even paid Star much less.  

 

Ideal (unrealistic) situation is to trade Star and his contract, get Tomlinson and a rookie.  

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On 2/25/2021 at 8:02 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Star signing was roundly viewed as the worst FA deal handed out in the NFL in 2018........even then it was a travesty.

 

Appropriately the Bills are still being punished for astonishingly paying a $2M player $10M instead of a typical free agent overpay like giving that player $4M.

 

Trent Murphy deal was bad.......eating Corey Coleman's $3.5M for 2 weeks of camp.........Kelvin Benjamin's $10M cap hit........wheew.......Beane strung together some seriously bad deals in a little over a year as GM.

 

But he's improved consistently in a number of areas,  assigning value and executing deals are one of them.    

 


there were definitely some self inflicted growing pains swept under the rug of “cleaning up the old regimes cap mess” 

 

i do think there’s been growth though.

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I didn't realize this, but Addison, Jefferson, and Butler all have opt-out clauses in their contracts which essentially makes them all 1-year deals and all have bonuses due on 3/21. I feel like given the cap situation this year, we'll know in a few weeks what the future holds for those gentlemen as opposed to June 1st. 

 

John Brown release opens up the most cash, but I'm holding out hope they restructure Brown rather than cutting him and opening up another hole.

 

That said, Bills could replace two players (Brown/McKenzie) with one player (Curtis Samuel - Carolina).

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6 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I didn't realize this, but Addison, Jefferson, and Butler all have opt-out clauses in their contracts which essentially makes them all 1-year deals and all have bonuses due on 3/21. I feel like given the cap situation this year, we'll know in a few weeks what the future holds for those gentlemen as opposed to June 1st. 

 

John Brown release opens up the most cash, but I'm holding out hope they restructure Brown rather than cutting him and opening up another hole.

 

That said, Bills could replace two players (Brown/McKenzie) with one player (Curtis Samuel - Carolina).

Or we could sign Mckensie (3mil), cut brown (8mil), use Mckensie as a KR/PR to have an extra roster spot (no Roberts) and save 12mil on the Cap by not signing Curtis Samuel? Use the 5 mill in savings by cutting Brown towards signing D William's? Just my thoughts..

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11 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Or we could sign Mckensie (3mil), cut brown (8mil), use Mckensie as a KR/PR to have an extra roster spot (no Roberts) and save 12mil on the Cap by not signing Curtis Samuel? Use the 5 mill in savings by cutting Brown towards signing D William's? Just my thoughts..

All possible... 

 

I don’t trust McKenzie as a full time WR, but he’s obviously battling for that 4 spot. 
 

The scenario I like the best is Brown takes a pay cut and McKenzie is re-signed. Walk into next season with our top 5 guys under contract (and a healthy Hodges). Davis vs Brown for the boundary opposite Diggs. 

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5 hours ago, valle78787878 said:

cut v butler,  quinten jefferson ,   john brown,   mitch morse restructure ,   lee smith retire ,  

do not sign matt milano,   

Add a restructure to Addison as well. I believe that would be enought to sign our 4 (my opinion) main free agents and the draft class. Bojorquez,  Mckensie  William's, Wallace and I believe Boetteger. May have a couple mill left for Barkley. Would probably need a little more for in season emergency??

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