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Bills Salary Cap deep dive with Spotrac's Mike Ginetti


Aussie Joe

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Havent seen this posted elsewhere and thought it was an interesting discussion... Goes for the first 30 minutes

 

 

Some takeaways...

 

- Mike was not loving  Beane's first big FA deal which was the Star signing

- Positive about Beane's overall handling of the Bills last 4 years

- Thinks Beane is not a "'restructure fan"  - and he doesnt think Beane will entertain this with Brown...  I dont agree as he has given paycuts to the likes of Star and Kroft previously... 

- He predicts that Addison and Jefferson will be retained until June to see what happens in the draft.. although this goes out the door if they get Watt 

- Says the success of Diggs in 2020 and his relationship with JA will be a great example to other potential free agents joining the Bills

- Depressingly thinks Williams is be best RT on the FA market this year and that someone might offer him $12M a year 

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10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Feel they need to release either or both of Addison and Star to be able to afford a premier pass rusher in FA.... so not sure holding onto them till June makes any sense. 

I don’t think they can release Star.  We need him not to retire too.  With the restructure they did pre Covid the cap hit is over $10 M.  I think.

 

I think we need him to play and be in shape after taking the year off.

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23 minutes ago, Manther said:

I don’t think they can release Star.  We need him not to retire too.  With the restructure they did pre Covid the cap hit is over $10 M.  I think.

 

I think we need him to play and be in shape after taking the year off.


Can’t underestimate how big 2021 is for Star.   Bills need him to be ready and play at his best.   If that happens this defense will improve. 

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1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

Havent seen this posted elsewhere and thought it was an interesting discussion... Goes for the first 30 minutes

 

 

Some takeaways...

 

- Mike was not loving  Beane's first big FA deal which was the Star signing

- Positive about Beane's overall handling of the Bills last 4 years

- Thinks Beane is not a "'restructure fan"  - and he doesnt think Beane will entertain this with Brown...  I dont agree as he has given paycuts to the likes of Star and Kroft previously... 

- He predicts that Addison and Jefferson will be retained until June to see what happens in the draft.. although this goes out the door if they get Watt 

- Says the success of Diggs in 2020 and his relationship with JA will be a great example to other potential free agents joining the Bills

- Depressingly thinks Williams is be best RT on the FA market this year and that someone might offer him $12M a year 


I agree with all of this.  I hated the Star signing, but I really like what Beane has done overall.

 

I do not consider a pay cut a true “restructure” so I’d agree with him thus far.  Though it might simply be that Beane hasn’t really needed to do any true restructures yet.

 

Agree on the Addison, Jefferson and Diggs comments.  And I’ve been saying that Williams will be looking for a Conklin contract and should come fairly close to it.  Conklin makes $14M per year for 3 years so $12M for Williams is definitely in the ballpark. 

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2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Havent seen this posted elsewhere and thought it was an interesting discussion... Goes for the first 30 minutes

 

 

Some takeaways...

 

- Mike was not loving  Beane's first big FA deal which was the Star signing

- Positive about Beane's overall handling of the Bills last 4 years

- Thinks Beane is not a "'restructure fan"  - and he doesnt think Beane will entertain this with Brown...  I dont agree as he has given paycuts to the likes of Star and Kroft previously... 

- He predicts that Addison and Jefferson will be retained until June to see what happens in the draft.. although this goes out the door if they get Watt 

- Says the success of Diggs in 2020 and his relationship with JA will be a great example to other potential free agents joining the Bills

- Depressingly thinks Williams is be best RT on the FA market this year and that someone might offer him $12M a year 

Couple of points from my 20 minutes of analysis- only restructures that makes sense are Diggs, who saves us 7, and Dawkins, who can save us 5, as far as getting us under the cap, everyone else we would be better off cutting or trading. 

I don't think there is anyway Jefferson and Butler are on team next year since that would be 35 million on 4 DT who are not special.

Lastly I don't think Williams gets 12 a year, especially this year. I would guess more likely 3 years at 8 million per year. He had a great year but his qb made up for a lot of issues 

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1 hour ago, Manther said:

I don’t think they can release Star.  We need him not to retire too.  With the restructure they did pre Covid the cap hit is over $10 M.  I think.

 

I think we need him to play and be in shape after taking the year off.

 

The league should cut teams a break for COVID opt outs who retire. Have a special break.

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21 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Couple of points from my 20 minutes of analysis- only restructures that makes sense are Diggs, who saves us 7, and Dawkins, who can save us 5, as far as getting us under the cap, everyone else we would be better off cutting or trading. 

I don't think there is anyway Jefferson and Butler are on team next year since that would be 35 million on 4 DT who are not special.

Lastly I don't think Williams gets 12 a year, especially this year. I would guess more likely 3 years at 8 million per year. He had a great year but his qb made up for a lot of issues 

Obviously, we'll find out later what Williams will get, but I have little doubt that he'll get more than 8m per year.   Tackle is still a premier position because it's highly visible and protects the QB.  It's not just that Williams had one good year, he was a former All Pro player who struggled coming back from major injury.  He clearly showed that he is back to being a highly productive player.  I think someone will pay him a fistfull more than us. 

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38 minutes ago, Mark Long Beach said:

Obviously, we'll find out later what Williams will get, but I have little doubt that he'll get more than 8m per year.   Tackle is still a premier position because it's highly visible and protects the QB.  It's not just that Williams had one good year, he was a former All Pro player who struggled coming back from major injury.  He clearly showed that he is back to being a highly productive player.  I think someone will pay him a fistfull more than us. 

I had forgotten he was a all pro, I just remembered he was not good in 2019. Good point.

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1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

The league should cut teams a break for COVID opt outs who retire. Have a special break.

 

If he retires, he should forfeit his prorated bonus.

2 hours ago, First Round Bust said:

spotrac versus over the cap...comparisons, likes-dislikes, comments, preferences...what say you ?  

 

I use them both.  Each of them has strong and weak points.

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3 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Havent seen this posted elsewhere and thought it was an interesting discussion... Goes for the first 30 minutes

 

 

Some takeaways...

 

- Mike was not loving  Beane's first big FA deal which was the Star signing

- Positive about Beane's overall handling of the Bills last 4 years

- Thinks Beane is not a "'restructure fan"  - and he doesnt think Beane will entertain this with Brown...  I dont agree as he has given paycuts to the likes of Star and Kroft previously... 

- He predicts that Addison and Jefferson will be retained until June to see what happens in the draft.. although this goes out the door if they get Watt 

- Says the success of Diggs in 2020 and his relationship with JA will be a great example to other potential free agents joining the Bills

- Depressingly thinks Williams is be best RT on the FA market this year and that someone might offer him $12M a year 


it’s gotten better but a lot on the board don’t use restructure in the same meaning as most of the league. 
 

a pay cut is a pay cut, but restructure almost always refers to converting salary to bonus to reduce current year cap at expense of future flexibility 

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3 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Havent seen this posted elsewhere and thought it was an interesting discussion... Goes for the first 30 minutes

 

 

Some takeaways...

 

- Mike was not loving  Beane's first big FA deal which was the Star signing

- Positive about Beane's overall handling of the Bills last 4 years

- Thinks Beane is not a "'restructure fan"  - and he doesnt think Beane will entertain this with Brown...  I dont agree as he has given paycuts to the likes of Star and Kroft previously... 

- He predicts that Addison and Jefferson will be retained until June to see what happens in the draft.. although this goes out the door if they get Watt 

- Says the success of Diggs in 2020 and his relationship with JA will be a great example to other potential free agents joining the Bills

- Depressingly thinks Williams is be best RT on the FA market this year and that someone might offer him $12M a year 

 

 

The Star signing was roundly viewed as the worst FA deal handed out in the NFL in 2018........even then it was a travesty.

 

Appropriately the Bills are still being punished for astonishingly paying a $2M player $10M instead of a typical free agent overpay like giving that player $4M.

 

Trent Murphy deal was bad.......eating Corey Coleman's $3.5M for 2 weeks of camp.........Kelvin Benjamin's $10M cap hit........wheew.......Beane strung together some seriously bad deals in a little over a year as GM.

 

But he's improved consistently in a number of areas,  assigning value and executing deals are one of them.    

 

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24 minutes ago, Paul Costa said:

Beane has made mistakes. But give him credit for the overall state of the program. Buffalo is relevant in the NFL. We have a top 5 QB. A guy no one thought would make it. Beane is good. Really good 😀

For every bad decision Brandon makes, he makes 2 good ones. I can live with that ratio. I'd still try to sign Williams even if it means 11-12mil. And I think Diggs and Dawkins would consider a restructure. If by some act of God Watt comes to Buffalo it will require Addison, Murphy, Butler and Jefferson to be dismissed.  And that goes for Milano too. I want a better front 4 even if its slightly at the expense of a LB.

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Williams is worth doing our best to keep him.  It’s not easy to find a quality RT.  As far as Beane, since his arrival we’ve made the playoffs three times, ended the drought, won the East for the first in 25 years, and made the championship game.  I think it’s safe to say the professionals think he was the best GM in the league this year.

 

Aussie, thanks as I like Ginetti.  Both OTC and Spotrac are a real value to NFL fans, and provide good info. in making decisions as to value of players, etc.

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7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Star signing was roundly viewed as the worst FA deal handed out in the NFL in 2018........even then it was a travesty.

 

Appropriately the Bills are still being punished for astonishingly paying a $2M player $10M instead of a typical free agent overpay like giving that player $4M.

 

Trent Murphy deal was bad.......eating Corey Coleman's $3.5M for 2 weeks of camp.........Kelvin Benjamin's $10M cap hit........wheew.......Beane strung together some seriously bad deals in a little over a year as GM.

 

But he's improved consistently in a number of areas,  assigning value and executing deals are one of them.    

 

 

 

More nonsense from you. "The Star signing was roundly viewed as the worst FA deal handed out in the NFL in 2018" ... by you and a few sad others on these boards, and by PFF. PFF's stats consistently understate the value of a space eater.

 

Generally, though, it was thought to make a great deal of sense.

 

By the way, here's a challenge: Find, say, three mentions of the word "travesty" in the contemporary coverage of the Lotulelei trade. You're the one who brought up that word. You said, "... even then it was a travesty." Find the word travesty, back then, and give us a couple of links. I'll tell you what, to give you some scope, I'll give you a few mulligans. Find two contemporaneous mentions of the word "travesty" at the time about the Lotulelei signing (outside your own posts and the other wildly negative saddoes on these boards), among the media. And I'll throw in these Dictionary.com synonyms of "travesty" to help you out:  burlesque, farce, mockery perversion, sham, and laughingstock. 

 

Hell, I'll throw in catastrophe, calamity, debacle, tragedy, fiasco, washout, ruination, bane and blight, just for good measure. Go ahead, find 'em, and again, not on the boards but among actual media.

 

Hell, I'll even start you off with the results of my google search for contemporary reactions to Star's signing with the Bills:

 

 

"This will be a key signing for Buffalo as it tries to upgrade a defense that ranked 29th against the run in 2017. Lotulelei, of course, has connections to coach Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane from Carolina, where he was a first-round pick, No. 14 overall, in the 2013 draft. And based on his performance last season for Carolina when he played 58.9 percent of the defensive snaps, he was more effective when McDermott was the Panthers’ defensive coordinator Lotulelei is a 6-foot-2, 315-pounder who got off to a great start in his NFL career, but last year wasn’t quite so effective. Still, what he does best may be what the Bills need most — he can occupy blockers in the middle of the line, which will enable the linebackers to make plays."

 

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2018/03/13/star-lotulelei-free-agent-buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-carolina-panthers/419580002/

 

 

"On the surface, a five-year, $50 million dollar deal seems a bit hefty for Lotulelei, especially considering that the 28-year-old has only bested the 26-tackle mark once in his career. However, Bills’ general manager Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott are familiar with Lotulelei, as they worked with him in Carolina. They obviously feel as though he’s worth the money."

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/03/15/buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-contract-details/

 

 

"Most significant signing: In terms of financial investment, the headline signing of free agency was defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. Ranked No. 11 among ESPN's top 100 free agents, Lotulelei joined Buffalo on a five-year, $50 million deal with $25 million guaranteed after five seasons with the Carolina Panthers. At $10 million per season, his deal becomes the richest among any player under contract for the Bills after the trades of left tackle Cordy Glenn and quarterback Tyrod Taylor. He is expected to fill the run-stuffing role vacated when the Bills traded Marcell Dareus last season. Adolphus Washington started in Dareus' place the final two months of the season and the results were subpar, with Buffalo allowing the NFL's second-highest average yards per rush inside the tackles, according to ESPN Stats & Information. If Lotulelei can help turn that around, he will be worth it."

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/31490/bills-free-agency-included-star-lotulelei-signing-teams-richest-deal

 

 

And as for whether they turned that around, the Bills went from 9th worst at defensive YPA allowed in 2017 to 9th best at it in 2018.

 

 

 

" 'I’m all for bringing on as many good football players as we can,' Kyle Williams said, referring to Lotulelei. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 311 pounds, Lotulelei was a five-year starter with Carolina after being selected by the Panthers in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Utah.

 

"The native of Tonga is reunited with McDermott, who was Panthers defensive co-ordinator before taking over in Buffalo in January 2017. Bills general manager Brandon Beane is also familiar with Lotulelei and played a role in drafting him after previously serving as Panthers assistant GM. Lotulelei has forced two fumbles and has 11 1/2 sacks in 76 career games, and was voted to the NFL all-rookie team in 2013. His future in Carolina was uncertain after the Panthers signed defensive tackle Kawann Short to a five-year, $80 million contract extension last off-season, and also used a first-round pick for Vernon Butler last year."

 

"Lotulelei’s addition is the latest bold move made by Beane in reshaping Buffalo’s roster since being hired in May to replace Doug Whaley."

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/football/nfl/report-bills-expected-sign-defensive-tackle-star-lotulelei/

 

 

"Why he’s here:
- When he signed on the dotted line in free agency in March, the Bills had an immediate upgrade to a position that played quite poorly all throughout the 2017 season. Star Lotulelei comes in as an immediate starter for the Bills at the one-technique position along the defensive line, boasting a frame, a skill-set that meshes well, and plenty of experience in the very defense that the Bills will be running in the upcoming season. The Bills signed Lotulelei to a long-term deal, meaning they would have no incentive to try and release him at least until the 2020 season, but even then they'd still have to eat a fair amount of cap space to do so. At 28 years old, Lotulelei is right in the prime of his career, so the expectation is that he'll continue at his current playing level for the next two-to-three season. Despite playing in his prime, he doesn't play a high profile position and statistics alone overlook his actual impact on the game.

2018 outlook:
- In the upcoming season, the Bills will hope Lotulelei can be a considerable upgrade to the below average play of Marcell Dareus before the trade, and then of Adolphus Washington at the one-technique defensive tackle spot. Lotulelei's primary responsibilities will be to eat up a blocker or two each play and to allow his more rush-oriented teammates around him to get a one-on-one matchup to make a positive contribution. If Lotulelei is getting pushed around, or even falls on some plays, it makes the offense that much easier to control life at the line of scrimmage -- which was a considerable issue for the Bills during the 2017 season. With high ticket items around him on the defensive line, the Bills will depend on Lotulelei to be the glue that holds the defense together."

 

https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/buffalo-bills-top-20-talents-in-2018-no-13-dt-star-lotulelei

 

 

"Per Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Bills have inked Lotulelei to a new five-year contract that will become official once the new league year begins on Wednesday and free agency officially opens.The signing will help the Bills along the defensive front which suffered greatly after they traded Marcell Dareus to the Jacksonville Jaguars last season. Lotulelei will now provide an anchor for the next few years for a defense being remade in general manager Brandon Beane’s image. It’s a unit that’s suffered plenty of losses in the last year, including Reggie Ragland to the Kansas City Chiefs.

 

"Speaking of the Chiefs, they were reportedly among the interested parties for Lotulelei, the former Carolina Panthers defensive lineman who would have helped fill a significant hole along the line in K.C. Bennie Logan is now a free agent, as is Jarvis Jenkins, and there has been zero buzz concerning either player returning to this point. It was already a thin position and, as of now, the Chiefs have Allen Bailey and Chris Jones as the sole contributors to rely upon up front. Lotulelei has been a reliable anchor along the trenches for the Panthers, starting all 16 games the last two seasons. Last year he had 1.5 sacks and 25 total tackles for Carolina."

 

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2018/03/13/nfl-free-agency-star-lotulelei-will-sign-buffalo-bills/

 

 

"The Buffalo Bills are adding standout defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. What should we expect from the five-year defender with his new team? ... You have to crawl before you can walk. And the team has already been very active this offseason when it comes to improvements. And now new general manager Brandon Beane has hauled in a very familiar face in defensive tackle Star Lotulelei.The former University of Utah standout and 14th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft missed only one game and made 75 regular-season starts for Ron Rivera’s club in Carolina. He’s started all 16 contests each of the past two years and is one of the better run-stoppers around. And that’s very good news for a Buffalo Bills’ defensive unit that could use all the help it can get in that regard.

 

Grade

It’s an immediate upgrade for a defensive unit that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league in each of the past two seasons and under two different systems. This past year, the defense got off to a good start against the run but things appeared to go downhill rapidly once the Bills opted to deal Marcell Dareus.

In this case, Lotulelei played in McDermott’s system for five seasons in Carolina and the learning curve should be non-existent. That being said, this is a player that must improve his performance.

Grade: B+

 

https://fansided.com/2018/03/13/nfl-free-agency-update-star-lotulelei-signs-bills/

 

 

 

 

 

You ridiculously contend that "even then it was a travesty." So I googled "2018 worst FA signings NFL". Guess what. Star wasn't there. Here's what was:

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25760941/best-worst-2018-nfl-free-agent-signings

 

https://www.battleredblog.com/2018/4/17/17245670/2018-nfl-free-agency-the-five-worst-free-agent-signings

 

 

This article listed each team's worst, and Lotulelei didn't even make that list, TE Kroft did.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2827919-every-nfl-teams-worst-free-agent-signing-this-offseason

 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-the-2018-contract-awards-featuring-the-best-and-worst-nfl-signings-of-the-year/

 

 

Lotulelei signing given an "A." (Murphy a "C")

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/12/17103704/2018-nfl-free-agent-grades-trades-offseason-moves

 

 

 

 

There was some mild criticism at the time. Most of the reaction was accepting or mildly positive. But outside PFF-based criticism, the negatives were mostly that they paid a bit too much. But the criticism was mild, and there wasn't all that much of it.

 

 

 

 

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