Shaw66 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Mike Vrabel was the Texans DC from 201u to 2018. If Watt liked him as a coach that gives the Titans the edge. I would bet on them right now, followed by the Packers, followed by the Bills. I haven't gotten into the speculation about where he might go. It's all guess work. Having said that, I'd forgotten the Vrabel connection. That's real. I don't think Watt is the kind of guy who will go to Green Bay because it's going home or to Pittsburgh because his brothers are there. I think he's a football-first guy. I think he's going to go to the place where he thinks he will have the best football experience, subject only to the compensation meeting whatever he might want in that regard. Best football experience means opportunities to be on a team that excels and to be a significant contributor. Buffalo and Tennessee are two likely contenders. There probably are some others. Buffalo and Tennessee seem to be in similar cap situations, so as between those two, money shouldn't be the deciding factor. As I suggested, I think Watt will be about getting at least whatever he thinks his minimum is and not so much about getting maximum dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Sign Watt, add someone like Jayon Brown in FA, draft Tyler Shelvin, and add some youth in the later rounds of the draft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I do not want to see Watt on the Bills. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: Yup. You nailed exactly what I was talking about with Stevie. He was one of my favorite players and damn good, but wasn’t elite. In his prime he was a great #2 option on a contender IMO. The only thing with the Chargers example after taking a quick look at plays this year - the Chargers were the upper limit in offensive plays. Only team over 1100 plays from just looking quick. The rest of the league ran somewhere between 950 - 1100 plays this year. I’ll do a good look back over the last 10 years but I’m pretty confident that there are a finite amount of targets to go around and it’s going to be in that range. You’re not going to be able to stretch it too much more than where we were this year. This season is likely in Q3... there might be a few more plays out there but I don’t think we can reasonably run too many more consistently to get enough targets to give someone other than Diggs and Beasley that volume. So top # of plays: 5 year average 1110. 10 year average 1124. I think within the limits of a 60 minute game, you probably have a point that there's probably going to be an upper bound somewhere, and maybe it's ~70 offensive plays per game. To look at it from a different angle, Allen was #6 in passing attempts this season, 54 attempts behind the leader, Matt Ryan. #2 was Tom Brady and #3 was Ben Roethlisberger - all "elder statesmen" QB in this league. Not that I want the Bills to go even more pass-centric but I think it's a fair point the Bills, practically speaking, have "some meat on the bone" where they could sustain drives and find passes to someone besides Diggs and Beasley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turbo44 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, Dr. K said: I do not want to see Watt on the Bills. Thanks for the in-depth analysis 🧐... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 19 hours ago, Ya Digg? said: So you want the Bills to sign a guy for more money than what Watt will get paid and is coming off of an ACL tear and that’s somehow a win for Buffalo? are you sure its more money ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, Dr. K said: I do not want to see Watt on the Bills. Totally fair opinion but would you mind sharing some background about why you feel that way? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: Yup. You nailed exactly what I was talking about with Stevie. He was one of my favorite players and damn good, but wasn’t elite. In his prime he was a great #2 option on a contender IMO. The only thing with the Chargers example after taking a quick look at plays this year - the Chargers were the upper limit in offensive plays. Only team over 1100 plays from just looking quick. The rest of the league ran somewhere between 950 - 1100 plays this year. I’ll do a good look back over the last 10 years but I’m pretty confident that there are a finite amount of targets to go around and it’s going to be in that range. You’re not going to be able to stretch it too much more than where we were this year. This season is likely in Q3... there might be a few more plays out there but I don’t think we can reasonably run too many more consistently to get enough targets to give someone other than Diggs and Beasley that volume. SJ13 is a good example of the "concept" you are talking about........he wouldn't have been option #1 on many teams........ but he was also in steep decline by the time the Bills got rid of him so I wouldn't use his production after Buffalo as an example. Logan Thomas is not the #1 option for the WFT like SJ13 was for the Bills, though. That guy is Terry McLaurin.......a stud WR. Thomas was given a chance to convert to TE because he was the top TE recruit in the nation in HS (and later considered the possible NFL #1 overall pick at QB in college). He's a really exceptional athlete for the position. I don't expect him to become a true superstar TE like Kelce/Gronk while pushing 30 now............but while you may think that he just got over-targeted, and therefore overrated, the same argument was made about Kelce early in his career with KC. He averaged over 100 targets per season from 2014-2016 when the Chiefs had no outside passing game(literally 0 WR TD's in 2014). His game didn't decline switching from a pro bowl level QB in Alex Smith to a great one in Mahomes with great WR targets.........his production actually increased by about 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: SJ13 is a good example of the "concept" you are talking about........he wouldn't have been option #1 on many teams........ but he was also in steep decline by the time the Bills got rid of him so I wouldn't use his production after Buffalo as an example. Logan Thomas is not the #1 option for the WFT like SJ13 was for the Bills, though. That guy is Terry McLaurin.......a stud WR. Thomas was given a chance to convert to TE because he was the top TE recruit in the nation in HS (and later considered the possible NFL #1 overall pick at QB in college). He's a really exceptional athlete for the position. I don't expect him to become a true superstar TE like Kelce/Gronk while pushing 30 now............but while you may think that he just got over-targeted, and therefore overrated, the same argument was made about Kelce early in his career with KC. He averaged over 100 targets per season from 2014-2016 when the Chiefs had no outside passing game(literally 0 WR TD's in 2014). His game didn't decline switching from a pro bowl level QB in Alex Smith to a great one in Mahomes with great WR targets.........his production actually increased by about 30%. ???? Kelce’s yards per catch and yards per target has been basically at his career average since getting Mahomes. He’s the same player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, Dr. K said: I do not want to see Watt on the Bills. Me neither. I don't feel right donating 0.99 cents and $99 is too steep for me. If he accepts $9.90 then we can swing something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Huff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Anyone tracking the Pegula jet? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ya Digg? Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said: are you sure its more money ? He won’t be cheaper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 39 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Totally fair opinion but would you mind sharing some background about why you feel that way? He is going to be paid beyond his performance level at this point in his career, and his ability to remain healthy is a question mark. This is a signing the Bills would have done in the old days when the organization was clueless. Folks here who are excited about this prospect are thinking of a younger version of JJ Watt that hasn't existed for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Dr. K said: I do not want to see Watt on the Bills. Why wouldn’t you want this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Dr. K said: I do not want to see Watt on the Bills. Then don't watch the Bills next season. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Then don't watch the Bills next season. Whoaoa, Confident! Any basis for this? Beane did say don't expect a "splash" in trades/FA this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Huff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: Why wouldn’t you want this... Seriously. This dude is a first ballot hall of Famer who still has some gas in the tank. He’s also a class act off the field. This is an absolute no brainer 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Whoaoa, Confident! Any basis for this? Beane did say don't expect a "splash" in trades/FA this year Don’t think Beane figured Watt would be released. Reports are that the Bills were one of the first teams to contact him after release 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said: Seriously. This dude is a first ballot hall of Famer who still has some gas in the tank. He’s also a class act off the field. This is an absolute no brainer He’d be the 15th best player on the Bills and tacitly demand being the top name on the marquee. Our locker room is solid but that kind of crap will erode anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Then don't watch the Bills next season. Lol, its one way to solve the problem. Bills GM Brandon Beane likes to fly under the radar... Edited February 14, 2021 by Figster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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