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"20 other QB's in the league could have won w/ the Bucs on Sunday"


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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Great post.

 

An additional point is that so far in the film, I am seeing open checkdown guys.  It seems to be a lesson that Josh has to learn, and learn, and relearn, but hopefully coming off a game where it seems to me there were checkdown guys open for yardage IF HE MADE HIS CHOICE QUICKLY, it seems possible Josh would have adapted.

 

 


Agree and I think that’s an aspect to the game that the entire offense will need to work on. The running backs and tight ends caught very few footballs this season.  And in a game when KC was putting 7 or 8 in coverage that could’ve been big.  
 

Part of it is that Josh needs to check the ball down and part of it is that he needs running backs or tight ends that can actually make plays with the ball.  This is the “speed” that Beane and McDermott talking about that was lacking 

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1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

If you take Brady out, then KC scores more than 9.  The great first half by Brady put the game script such that KC was so far down, and fearful that more were going to be scored, that they did not take field goals multiple times.


 It was almost as though the roles were reversed for Kansas City in the Super Bowl vs AFCCG.  

 

Nothing seemed to go right.  The line was blown up and couldn’t protect versus the front 4. QB had no time to throw and had to force passes.  Dumb penalties and mistakes were made.  The defense dropped 7 or 8 in coverage knowing that the offense wasn’t interested in running.  When the offense moved the ball, they were held to FG’s

 

Its remarkable that the high powered Kansas City offense essentially got beat with the same gameplan they used against Buffalo.  And part of the reason why things opened up for Tampa on offense is because  they involved the running backs on screens, short passes and running plays versus a loaded secondary - which the Chiefs and Bills were unwilling to do.
 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


1) in terms of the defenses we beat, I guess you can look at either best scoring defenses or best yardage defenses. Tampa had the 6th best yardage defense. The Bills beat the 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, and 10 yardage defenses. Tampa had the 8th best scoring defense. The Bills beat the 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 scoring defenses. They beat the 6 (Miami) and 7 (New England) ones twice. 
 

2) it was obvious to everyone who watched that game, that the wholesale shuffling of that chiefs oline was a total disaster for the chiefs. It was a jailbreak from the snap. Don’t get me Wrong— the Bucs front 4 is great. But not that great. They did great against the Packers (also Missing their starting LT), but it wasn’t a jailbreak from the snap, and the pack scored 26 points and Rodgers threw for 350 yards. The chiefs oline was plain horrendous.  Our starting oline was great against very strong defensive lines this year. That they had a bad game against KC doesn’t make them bad or establish that they would have been overrun by the Bucs. In fact, I would argue that the problem against KC was the disguised pressure, which we couldn’t adjust to from a protection standpoint. The Bucs didn’t disguise nearly as much. 
 

3) In the end, the NFL is not a logic game. You can’t say Bucs > KC, and KC > Buffalo, therefore Bucs > Buffalo.  This is a matchup league. I think we match up better against Tampa Bay. 

 

So, no 3 JV players.   

 

I saw nothing in either game that even hinted that the Bills O-line would do a better job against a D-line that is even better than the Chiefs (i.e. the Bucs).  You are free to imagine so, though.

 

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Great post.

 

An additional point is that so far in the film, I am seeing open checkdown guys.  It seems to be a lesson that Josh has to learn, and learn, and relearn, but hopefully coming off a game where it seems to me there were checkdown guys open for yardage IF HE MADE HIS CHOICE QUICKLY, it seems possible Josh would have adapted.

I'm not so certain this is all Josh, as in 2018 Daboll had him throwing more deep passes over any other team in his first season. This, with one of the very worst offensive lines in the league. At that point I kinda doubt Josh is changing the plays on his own.

 

2019 the Bills suddenly didn't throw deep that often and had little success when they did throw deep.

 

While Allen was noted for being in a pro style vertical offense at Wyoming. My take is that Allen mostly throws the play that's been called. In some games the runs simply weren't being called very often and neither were passes to Cole Beasley, who looks to be as good as getting open as Diggs.

 

Against the Ravens in that divisional round the Bills didn't run but nine times to the RB's and Cole Beasley had two targets, no catches. Gabe Davis had four targets and no catches. Meanwhile both Brown and Diggs saw eleven targets each. 

 

I get the impression that this OC has his offensive game plan set up to call passes deeper than ten-twenty yards and work that mid to deep passing game. The run game and short passing game are something the Bills have in their play book but simply don't work on very much.

 

In that Ravens game Josh Allen threw 31 of 37 passes under 20 yards. Against the Chiefs 43 of 48 passes were under 20 yards. JMO

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

So, no 3 JV players.   

 

I saw nothing in either game that even hinted that the Bills O-line would do a better job against a D-line that is even better than the Chiefs (i.e. the Bucs).  You are free to imagine so, though.

 


I don’t have to imagine. All I need to do is look back to 2 weeks ago when the line did just fine against the ravens. 

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Brady has won 7 Super Bowls in his 20 seasons, which means to TB12 that he came up short 13/20 times.

 

That's the difference between him and the paper GOATs like Rodgers and Mahomes.

 

His drive and commitment is insane. Gotta hand it to him.

 

Plus, the more I hear about this win being him "getting over" on Belichick and NE the more and more I'm actually good with it.

 

Having a team to root for in the Bills matters too. Screw KC! They are in OUR way now.

 

Plus Mr. GOAT is sticking around which is great for teams to get some legacy opportunities beating him while he's as good as ever.

 

Most of his SB wins came after age 38. Just let that sink in. 

 

If he retired at age 37 he would have 3 rings and be 3-2

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17 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


I don’t have to imagine. All I need to do is look back to 2 weeks ago when the line did just fine against the ravens

 

Against the Ravens, Josh was sacked twice,  had only 188 net passing yards and 1 TD.  He ran 7 times for a net of 3 yards.  The Bills rushed for only 32 yards.  

 

It was easily the Bills worst Offensive showing in their 3 playoff games---in fact the worst of the season.... since they lost to the Chiefs in week 6. 

 

But, in your imagination, that's "just fine"?

 

Ok.  keep digging.

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29 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Against the Ravens, Josh was sacked twice,  had only 188 net passing yards and 1 TD.  He ran 7 times for a net of 3 yards.  The Bills rushed for only 32 yards.  

 

It was easily the Bills worst Offensive showing in their 3 playoff games---in fact the worst of the season.... since they lost to the Chiefs in week 6. 

 

But, in your imagination, that's "just fine"?

 

Ok.  keep digging.


Well, my point was that they protected him very well against the ravens— which they did.
 

but if you don’t like that one, how about against the Colts, who also have an excellent defensive line? Or maybe the prior week against the dolphins, who also generate a ton of pressure and had the no. 1 scoring defense at the time? 
 

I can keep trying and trying because there are so many examples of the bills line protecting josh well this year against elite defenses. You have extrapolated one bad performance against KC Into a systemic problem. I view the one bad performance against KC as indicative of an anomaly, where the disguises hurt our protection schemes more than the lack of talent on the line. 
 

Sorry, but you are suffering from the worst case of recency bias. 

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56 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


Well, my point was that they protected him very well against the ravens— which they did.
 

but if you don’t like that one, how about against the Colts, who also have an excellent defensive line? Or maybe the prior week against the dolphins, who also generate a ton of pressure and had the no. 1 scoring defense at the time? 
 

I can keep trying and trying because there are so many examples of the bills line protecting josh well this year against elite defenses. You have extrapolated one bad performance against KC Into a systemic problem. I view the one bad performance against KC as indicative of an anomaly, where the disguises hurt our protection schemes more than the lack of talent on the line. 
 

Sorry, but you are suffering from the worst case of recency bias. 

 

2 bad performances...

 

The Bills had an opportunity after the 1st Chiefs game to learn of "the disguises".  The result in their rematch was Josh was running for his life the whole game. He was sacked 4 times and took tons of hits.  He completed only 58% of his passes.  

 

The more you post on this, the less convincing is your argument.  No one would watch the playoffs (or the ACFE) and reasonably conclude that the Bucs D is inferior to that of the Colts or the Dolphins.

 

Recency?  After getting spanked by the KC D line, and then the best Offense in the NFL get destroyed by the Bucs D, yeah...that's what I used to conclude that on SB Sunday, the Bills would have been ill-equipped to beat Tampa Bay.  Especially with how that line was holding up in their final 2 games (Ravens, Chiefs).  Did a good job against the mighty Dolphins D (ho gave up 87 points vs the Bills) and the Colts (10th in points allowed)?  Thats' nice....

 

 

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