Joe B article speculates John Brown will be cut

[C.Biscuit97]

Brown was absolutely amazing his first year here. But he has really only had two good seasons in his career. When you get good, you have to make tough decisions. For his price, I think you have to let him good. I think injuries are going to be a major concern as he gets older and he is is similar to Diggs size wise than I want to see what Davis does with more chances. 
 

it sucks but with Davis and possibly more FAs who might take less now that Allen has established himself, it shouldn’t be that big of a loss. 

[dave mcbride]

19 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think WR and RB are very system-driven positions.  WR depend upon the QB, and both QB and RB effectiveness depend upon the OL.

 

I can agree that there has to be a criteria, like "last 3 seasons" "only seasons in this system" or it looks kind of cherry-picky

 

 

I odn't think that's a good argument.  Completion % is passes caught/passes thrown.  One point to consider is that the Bills ranked only #15 in the league for # of offensive plays with 1034.  #1 is the LA Chargers with 1127, 90 more plays.  For the sake of argument, if those are pass plays, 69% completion would be 62 additional receptions.

 

Crosscheck: the Bills were actually #11 for passing attempts with 596.  #1 was Pittsburgh with 656, or 60 additional pass attempts.  Again at 69% completions, that would be 41 additional passes. 

 

So there are probably more completions out there without invoking new records or anything.  And that's not even addressing plays lost to penalties.

 

I don't quite understand the "68 passes in a full season" argument, but Brown caught 33 passes in 9 games, which would project (in my math) out to 58 receptions in a 16 game season, or 25 additional receptions. 

 

So, if you're looking for 25 additional receptions, they could come from having 60 additional offensive plays (due to converting more 1st downs), of which in a  60% pass ratio 36 would be pass plays and 69% completion would mean 25 additional receptions.

 

I'm not arguing that's probable, just pointing out that it isn't, logically speaking, the "zero sum game" you're portraying where more receptions for Brown mean fewer receptions for Diggs, Beasley and Davis or that Brown's catch % would have to rise or anything

 

 

Hapless — he came out (injury) in the first half of the rams game, missed most of the fourth quarter of the AZ game (injury again), and didn’t play in the second half of the miami game. Hence my estimation of 8 games.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Hapless — he came out (injury) in the first half of the rams game, missed most of the fourth quarter of the AZ game (injury again), and didn’t play in the second half of the miami game. Hence my estimation of 8 games.

 

Dave, I think one kind of has to count games where the guy is active and plays....I mean, if he's active and plays, it means someone else who might contribute is inactive.

[dave mcbride]

On 2/6/2021 at 10:37 AM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The Bills system he's playing in now is a far cry from the 2019 Bills system.  No Diggs who replaced Jones and Foster as the #2.

 

So agree context does matter, makes it easy to cherry pick.

The catch rates were effectively the same in 2019 and 2020, so what you’re saying doesn’t really matter. As a Buffalo Bill over two seasons with the same OC and the same QB, his catch rate has been the same. And if you want to do a really deep dive, bear in mind that his worst season in this regard by far, 2017 (38.2 percent), Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert started most of the games. They are bad qbs, and they were running a Bruce Arians offense that pushes the ball downfield. Stanton completed under 50 percent of his passes and Gabbert was at 55.6. Also, prior to Jackson becoming the QB in mid-late 2018, he had caught 34 balls on 67 throws. Granted, that’s barely above 50 percent, but he was also averaging 9 yards per pass attempt (601 yards on 67 throws), which is awesome. 
 

Afterward, Jackson targeted him 29 times and completed only 6 passes (a 21 percent catch rate). 
 

Anyway, context -- the qb, the system, etc. -- matters. 
 

Again, though, I agree with you that he probably will not be back. 

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dave, I think one kind of has to count games where the guy is active and plays....I mean, if he's active and plays, it means someone else who might contribute is inactive.

If he is out because of injury he stops being active. It’s not like he’s not getting snaps or not being targeted. He can’t play, simply put. If a player starts and goes down on the first play because of injury, it seems ridiculous to me to say that he played the game. He didn’t. Yet the stat sheet will say he played that game. Brown was functionally inactive for over a half vs. the Rams and most of a quarter vs. AZ. He wasn't hurt vs. Miami, but he didn’t play after halftime (presumably because they were concerned about re-injury). 

Edited February 7, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Doc]

41 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The catch rates were effectively the same in 2019 and 2020, so what you’re saying doesn’t really matter. As a Buffalo Bill over two seasons with the same OC and the same QB, his catch rate has been the same. And if you want to do a really deep dive, bear in mind that his worst season in this regard by far, 2017 (38.2 percent), Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert started most of the games. They are bad qbs, and they were running a Bruce Arians offense that pushes the ball downfield. Stanton completed under 50 percent of his passes and Gabbert was at 55.6. Also, prior to Jackson becoming the QB in mid-late 2018, he had caught 34 balls on 67 throws. Granted, that’s barely above 50 percent, but he was also averaging 9 yards per pass attempt (601 yards on 67 throws), which is awesome. 
 

Afterward, Jackson targeted him 29 times and completed only 6 passes (a 21 percent catch rate). 
 

Anyway, context -- the qb, the system, etc. -- matters. 
 

Again, though, I agree with you that he probably will not be back.

 

Good points about Brown's production, when he played.  The question is: can you count on him to even stay as healthy as he did this past season?

[BillsCuse]

31 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Good points about Brown's production, when he played.  The question is: can you count on him to even stay as healthy as he did this past season?

He was dealing with a high ankle sprain, that takes time to get better and can linger.  I dont think that he should be labeled as injury prone just because of that - has been pretty healthy otherwise.

[Doc]

Just now, BillsCuse said:

He was dealing with a high ankle sprain, that takes time to get better and can linger.  I dont think that he should be labeled as injury prone just because of that - has been pretty healthy otherwise.

 

I don't disagree.  But he's on the wrong side of 30 and with a high cap number.  I'd rather make a change a little early than a little late.

[BillsCuse]

Agree, I think he needs to take a pay cut or be cut.  Just dont think his injury should be part of the decision.

[thenorthremembers]

10 hours ago, Mountain Man said:

Makes no sense. The reason you cut Brown is to free up essential space. 

Right essential space to sign better and younger talent.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, BillsCuse said:

Agree, I think he needs to take a pay cut or be cut.  Just dont think his injury should be part of the decision.

 

Injury should be, given his age.  If he were younger, I agree it shouldn't.

[97bills]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Brown was absolutely amazing his first year here. But he has really only had two good seasons in his career. When you get good, you have to make tough decisions. For his price, I think you have to let him good. I think injuries are going to be a major concern as he gets older and he is is similar to Diggs size wise than I want to see what Davis does with more chances. 
 

it sucks but with Davis and possibly more FAs who might take less now that Allen has established himself, it shouldn’t be that big of a loss. 

I don’t think it’s a big loss we played almost all year without him

[Chicken Boo]

15 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

You are aware that there is an expected decrease in Cap space around the League this off season? This is a bad year to be hitting the FA market if he is cut ...

 

Oh yeah.  Good point.

[Matt_In_NH]

On 2/5/2021 at 6:05 PM, Charles Romes said:

A healthy Kenny Stills in 21 will easily outperform John Brown’s 2020. Thank you for the career year 2019 John Brown.  Critical for Josh’s development. 

Kenny Stills is a UFA.  And we can say the same thing about Brown, a healthy John Brown in 21 will easily outperform John Brown's 2020.  

[dave mcbride]

7 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Good points about Brown's production, when he played.  The question is: can you count on him to even stay as healthy as he did this past season?

That I don’t know. The Bills know far more than any of us.

[Doc]

20 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

That I don’t know. The Bills know far more than any of us.

 

Even they don't/can't know. 

[Franchiseneedsme]

If cutting him saves 8M and with the tight cap, And FA wr prob aren't getting top dollar, I would like the Bills to cut Brown and add another Stud WR. Like Allen Robinson or Kenny Golliday at 12M.  Diggs is a stud, and Beasley is a great slot guy. But Josh needs another True  weapon. Think Diggs, Robinson, Beasley, and draft N Harris.  Now that is a better offense for only 2-3M more than we pay now.  If the Bills really are going to Pay Josh 30-40M per year soon the Bills SB window is the next 2 years. 

[Malazan]

He'd likely have to re-structure to stay on the team in a team friendly way. How far we've come that there's a reasonable possibility a guy would want to stay on this team that he'd consider it. 

[JaCrispy]

12 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

Restructure Brown or let him walk. Davis is ready, Stills is in the wings, and Roberts/McKenzie play/can play ST’s. The FO does not have a tough decision here.

Not sure I like the idea of Davis as the #2 as we would be downgrading in speed significantly...I actually think our offense needs more speed 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, BillsCuse said:

He was dealing with a high ankle sprain, that takes time to get better and can linger.  I dont think that he should be labeled as injury prone just because of that - has been pretty healthy otherwise.

‘the high ankle was his 3rd injury of the season

[daz28]

Half the league has to cut salary.  Many of the remaining teams don't have cash to give all these guys high salaries.  I think you'll see A LOT of restructuring, as NFL players see what happened to NHL players on the UFA front.  If they refuse to re-negotiate, they will be putting themselves in a risk pool, which is unlike any free agency we've ever seen.  I could see Brown playing for $6M here.