Cover 1 Buffalo podcast (Salary Cap Info)

[Hapless Bills Fan]

50 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I hear you. But I think they aren’t going to be loyal to some of these stop-gap guys (Addison), or vets at the end of their contracts (Mongo, McKenzie). They probably want to keep their core guys and homegrown guys if they can, but upgrade at key spots. 

 

Just a little point here that while I think it's fair to believe the Bills saw Quinton Jefferson and Butler as stopgaps, Addison was signed to a 3 year $30M contract with $13M fully guaranteed.    We could move on from him this year at the cost of a $4M cap hit, but that probably leaves a big DE shaped hole. 

 

Butler isn't signed past this season, and we can move on from him for a $1M cap hit

Q Jefferson likewise (pretty sure his numbers are incorrect in Overthecap listing $0 cap hit; Spotrac shows an amortized signing bonus of $1.5M)

 

I think their respective contracts indicate something about how McBeane view them

 

My reading of the tea leaves is that we may cut Butler or Jefferson, but not likely both.

 

I wish someone covering the Bills would do a deep dive into our DL.

[BuffaloRebound]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I've asked elsewhere, I'll put it here:

Can someone please walk me through the whole "cut morse, move mongo to C" train of logic?

 

I'll put out what I understand:

1) Cost savings: I don't think there are any

-Morse has a $10.3M cap number, but only $4.8M savings if cut due to accelerated amortized bonus.

-Spotrac estimates Feliciano's value as $8.4M/yr, 4 years (that's pegging him as a starting guard/C - it would slot him into #17 for a starting C, #10 for a starting RG, so it isn't unreasonable on the face of it.

-Therefore if you cut Morse and resign Feliciano, you have to come up with an extra $3.6M, depending upon how the contract is structured.

-Even if Feliciano signs for a lot less (or a lower up-front cap hit), it's probably a "wash" at best

2) Pass blocking.  Most people who know a little bit seem to evaluate Morse >> Feliciano as a pass blocking C.  Since our pass game will likely remain the priority, why would we want a downgrade at pass blocking?

3) Run blocking.  Morse is an athletic center who is a good blocker in space.  F2F with a nose tackle, he's not gonna shove him back.  Feliciano is much more capable as a power run blocker, no question.  But is that the blocking game we want to run?  🤷‍♂️  Last year lotsa gap runs.  This year mostly zone. 

4) as a Guard, Feliciano blocked well at times but other times, Woof!  See Cover1 Glaring Run Game Issues video for examples.  In particular, Feliciano seems to struggle when the guy he's preparing to block stunts (either run or pass).  [By the way, same video shows some stinker run blocking by Williams]

 

I think the concussion stuff with Morse is a huge X factor.  Plus Feliciano seems like a core locker room guy that everybody rallies around.  Plus he can play center or guard.  Add all that up and if you can get Feliciano in the $5m per year range, Beane might lean towards Feliciano if it’s an either/or.  If the concussions weren’t a huge factor, you probably lean towards Morse because he’s the better pass blocker.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think the concussion stuff with Morse is a huge X factor.  Plus Feliciano seems like a core locker room guy that everybody rallies around.  Plus he can play center or guard.  Add all that up and if you can get Feliciano in the $5m per year range, Beane might lean towards Feliciano if it’s an either/or.  If the concussions weren’t a huge factor, you probably lean towards Morse because he’s the better pass blocker.  

 

Granted, concussions are a factor. 

 

One of the things the Bills really value about Feliciano, though, is his positional flexibility.  They can plug him in at center or either guard spot with very little drop off against most teams.  

 

If you plan on him replacing Morse at center, you lose one of the traits you most value - you don't pull your starting center when the RG goes down.

 

We got GREAT value out of Mongo the last 2 years for $4M/year.  I don't think we're gonna re-sign him for an average of $5M/yr.  We might manage to structure a contract so that the first year cap hit is less.

 

At some point, if we want to be a team that can hang with the the top teams in the league, we need to move on from guys who are great in the locker room and find some who can actually BLOCK BETTER in big games.  Now maybe Feliciano had a rough year and will do better with a full off season, I don't know.

[Fixxxer]

2 hours ago, artmalibu said:

I dont get all the cut Mitch talk....   The cap savings is like 4.8 million, for that money a dont see getting an upgrade at center.  The radio guys say he is one of the higher rated pass protecting centers, and it looks like the Bills will want to be a passing team.

 

I call those, Playoff Drought reflexes, when our favorite thing about being Bills fans was to cut everyone because we didn't win many games. We always rooted for the obscured sixth round pick to save the franchise, our next draft pick will take us places, we said, over and over again. 

Let's cut Mitch Morse so we can save some money and put a 5th round rookie in front of our franchise QB. He will be all pro by week 2. 

[RichRiderBills]

I expect the Bills to try to restructure nearly everyone as well. Even guys normally not approached, will likely be approached. Rough year for everyone,  and dang the salary cap, we don't even know what shape the Pegula's are in with actual liquid cash after a year like this.

 

I'd also get Star in ASAP for a physical whenever we can. Guy is uncuttable virtually this year, but we need to know if he's still a football player and going to be a contributor.

[machine gun kelly]

15 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

It’s 2hrs long, but within the 1st half hour or so, you really get a great understanding of the Bills cap situation. As they go along you can see that if the Bills do everything they need to do, they could keep Brown, Hughes, Hyde, Addison, basically only cutting Butler and maybe Jefferson (if he won’t take a cut), and build up close to $40M in cap space. 

 

By far the most informative information regarding our cap situation and offers more than just “need cap space = cut that guy”.
 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-salary-cap-special/

DK, thanks for finding it, amd more importantly for the brief synopsis as I doubt I’ll watch for two hours.  In the beginning there are a lot of casual fans that would benefit from the education on how the cap works, restructuring, converting salary to bonus, etc.  I think it helps some vs. just cut this guy, or that guy.

 

The real question is not who we add, subtract, or restructure, it’s what is McD, Beane, Daboll, and Frazier’s vision for their team next year.  You then have more of the blueprint of what pieces to add, and can they afford it.  It’s also a strategy of their expectations for the cap not in 2021, but out in 22, 23, 24, and 25.  I’m confident Beane already has some working information as he knows one tv contract alone I saw reported could go from $1.2 bil. to $2 bil.  That’s only one network.  They are all educated guesses., but if we can ride out 2021, the successive years should bear a great deal of fruit. I’m sure that is what teams like Philly, NO, and so on are banking on to not drop Star players.

Edited February 6, 2021 by machine gun kelly

[spartacus]

9 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

I expect the Bills to try to restructure nearly everyone as well. Even guys normally not approached, will likely be approached. Rough year for everyone,  and dang the salary cap, we don't even know what shape the Pegula's are in with actual liquid cash after a year like this.

 

I'd also get Star in ASAP for a physical whenever we can. Guy is uncuttable virtually this year, but we need to know if he's still a football player and going to be a contributor.

highly doubtful they kick the can on players who are not considered long term core pieces

most will not get restructued

 

this a long term roster building plan - not to be screwed up with knee jerk short term "fixes"

 

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

17 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 

This is just me spit-balling here-- but I have a feeling they are going to really shake things up on both sides of the ball (get more speed at WR; get more beef on the interior line; and get more physicality and speed in the front 7 on defense). That may mean letting some of the fan favorites walk (Brown, Williams, Addison, Feliciano, Morse, Milano).  I could be totally wrong-- but I don't think that last game sat well with McBeane. 

I expect changes but I think the OL is going to be critical to them. I don’t think more speed at WR is going to be a priority. They have plenty of speed at that position, imo. That wasn’t the reason they lost the last game. Speed at RB on the other hand...

 

on the WR, I won’t be surprised at a John Brown/Kenny Stills swap for $ reasons and a player drafted mid rounds 

[RichRiderBills]

1 hour ago, spartacus said:

highly doubtful they kick the can on players who are not considered long term core pieces

most will not get restructued

 

this a long term roster building plan - not to be screwed up with knee jerk short term "fixes"

 

 

 

 

The effects of a big drop in the cap this year have long-standing echoes into all of our future planning and how contracts work with the cap.

 

Its because they are long term planners i think we will see many,contracts restructured.

 

The cap matter alone is , out over the years it's literally a massive impact that needs to be planned for by adjusting numbers. In short, the numbers have forever changed the game may forever change long term.

 

Also the real effect on $ is beyond the cap. Dont think the economic impact just snaps back into place.

 

There is no promise even FY21 will be the same.

 

The league may make some adjustments as well. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by RichRiderBills

[TPS]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

I expect changes but I think the OL is going to be critical to them. I don’t think more speed at WR is going to be a priority. They have plenty of speed at that position, imo. That wasn’t the reason they lost the last game. Speed at RB on the other hand...

 

on the WR, I won’t be surprised at a John Brown/Kenny Stills swap for $ reasons and a player drafted mid rounds 

They need options who will make teams pay for doubling on Diggs and Beasley.  That could be a speedy RB, a Hill-type at WR, or a better option at TE...

[YoloinOhio]

6 minutes ago, TPS said:

They need options who will make teams pay for doubling on Diggs and Beasley.  That could be a speedy RB, a Hill-type at WR, or a better option at TE...

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a run in FA at a hybrid like Curtis Samuel to replace Brown but also can add to the run game capabilities . Beane was there when he was drafted.

Edited February 6, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[Dkollidas]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a little point here that while I think it's fair to believe the Bills saw Quinton Jefferson and Butler as stopgaps, Addison was signed to a 3 year $30M contract with $13M fully guaranteed.    We could move on from him this year at the cost of a $4M cap hit, but that probably leaves a big DE shaped hole. 

 

Butler isn't signed past this season, and we can move on from him for a $1M cap hit

Q Jefferson likewise (pretty sure his numbers are incorrect in Overthecap listing $0 cap hit; Spotrac shows an amortized signing bonus of $1.5M)

 

I think their respective contracts indicate something about how McBeane view them

 

My reading of the tea leaves is that we may cut Butler or Jefferson, but not likely both.

 

I wish someone covering the Bills would do a deep dive into our DL.

I believe Cappacio is doing his state of the roster on his podcast,  “SalSports...and stuff”, so He’ll get to the DL sometime this next week. 

Also Joe Marino on “Locked on Bills” is doing the same thing and will also likely get to the DL one day next week.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

I believe Cappacio is doing his state of the roster on his podcast,  “SalSports...and stuff”, so He’ll get to the DL sometime this next week. 

Also Joe Marino on “Locked on Bills” is doing the same thing and will also likely get to the DL one day next week.

 

Good to know.  To be clear, what I'd like to see would be a deep-dive into the actual play of the DL as a whole, similar to what Cover1 did with the Bills running game.  When were they successful and why, and when did they fall short and why?

 

DL is not a place where it's necessarily productive to use stats to evaluate, and not saying Sal and Joe M will do this but too much analysis is "his 2021 salary is $$ and he didn't have any tackles so cut him"

[Dkollidas]

2 hours ago, spartacus said:

highly doubtful they kick the can on players who are not considered long term core pieces

most will not get restructued

 

this a long term roster building plan - not to be screwed up with knee jerk short term "fixes"

 

 

 

Well they can also do outright pay cuts. They did it last year with Kroft and DiMarco. I could see them easily saving $4m or so on Jefferson. I could see them doing the same with Matakevich as well and saving $1M-$2M

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I expect changes but I think the OL is going to be critical to them. I don’t think more speed at WR is going to be a priority. They have plenty of speed at that position, imo. That wasn’t the reason they lost the last game. Speed at RB on the other hand...

 

on the WR, I won’t be surprised at a John Brown/Kenny Stills swap for $ reasons and a player drafted mid rounds 

 

It's going to be interesting to see what they do at WR since one of their speed options (McKenzie) is a FA and one is on everybody's salary cap hit list.

[Dkollidas]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I expect changes but I think the OL is going to be critical to them. I don’t think more speed at WR is going to be a priority. They have plenty of speed at that position, imo. That wasn’t the reason they lost the last game. Speed at RB on the other hand...

 

on the WR, I won’t be surprised at a John Brown/Kenny Stills swap for $ reasons and a player drafted mid rounds 

I think speed at running back is key (Marlon Mack? Tevin Coleman? Matt Breida? All could cheaply add another element in the backfield).

 

I also believe finding more speed off the edge is a major need. They need to find someone with some burst to get after the QB. 

[Dkollidas]

34 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a run in FA at a hybrid like Curtis Samuel to replace Brown but also can add to the run game capabilities . Beane was there when he was drafted.

If I’m the Bills I’d offer a 2yr $15M deal. You can tell a guy like that he might get $1m-$2m more somewhere else, but here he’d be on a lights out, elite passing offense and be able to really add another dimension to a creative OC’s playbook. 

[Rubes]

The three things we learned from the AFCCG: the OL didn't block very well, the DL didn't rush very well, and we desperately need a threat at TE.

 

If we're to get over the hump and past the Chiefs, that's what needs to be fixed. McBeane knows it.

 

Getting Ford back will help some with the OL, if he can stay healthy. I think Beane will want to get Williams back, and I think Morse stays put. Feliciano is valuable because of his versatility, but if you bring him back, too, then nothing has changed with the OL other than Ford. Will that be enough? Continuity is good, but those guys were not very good against the Chiefs. Something has to change for the better, but it's really tough to determine what or how much.

 

If Star comes back, that will be a big help to the DL, but will that be enough? Probably not. They need people who can both keep blockers off of the LBs and rush the passer, and right now we don't have a lot of those. I think we'll see more action on this line during the offseason, it just depends on how much Beane can or wants to spend on the line.

 

No idea what they're going to do about TE. Real good ones are few and far between.

 

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, Dkollidas said:

If I’m the Bills I’d offer a 2yr $15M deal. You can tell a guy like that he might get $1m-$2m more somewhere else, but here he’d be on a lights out, elite passing offense and be able to really add another dimension to a creative OC’s playbook. 

He’s also from Brooklyn. Only one New York team ...

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

21 hours ago, somnus00 said:

Beane was pretty open during his press conference. It points to the direction the Bills are heading in this offseason.

 

Milano, Brown, and Feliciano will not be back.

They will try hard to sign Williams.

Beane will be looking hard for a new athletic TE.

No major RB acquisitions.

 

As a replacement for Milano, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah would look good in a Bills uniform. Maybe Zaven Collins. Both are playmakers on defense.

JOK. My number one target on defense if that's where we go in the first round and he's available which is doubtful. A bit undersized, but otherwise the prototype of the modern day NFL linebacker. Excellent vs the run and pass (covered slot WRs a lot including Amari Rogers from Clemson!!!), effective pass rusher, and forced a ton of turnovers. A guy with awesome speed at the LB position that helps us better defend KC IMO and that should be our main focus.