The Great Tremaine Edmunds Debate

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, NewEra said:

at this point, I think someone in the league would pay him 13-15M per year just based on his age and god given attributes and abilities. I think he’s worth about 7-8M, if that.  The cap will be our enemy for the next decade.  We need to make the correct decisions.  Keeping and paying a guy 13M+ that is often a detriment to the team and targeted by the opposition is the kind of move that sinks ships imo.  Not every time, but sometimes.  And sometimes is enough to make me wary.  
 

I know it won’t happen, but I’d be very happy if we could trade him for a draft pick that we could then in turn use on his replacement.  4 years of 1M per year = gold.  It’s a huge roll of the dice, for sure.  The rookie may suck.  But at least he will suck getting paid 1M as opposed to sucking (which Edmunds did much of last year, as evidenced by the QB rating when targeting him) while taking up a lot of cap space 

 

I think you're missing the point.  If Edmunds is a guy who is " a detriment to his team and targeted by the opposition," I don't think anyone is paying him $13 million a year.  That doesn't happen any more.   Clowney, who is a better raw talent than Edmunds, only got $12 million when he hit free agency, and he is/was a guy with elite pass-rush talent.  

 

That's why I think either (1) you're wrong in your assessment of how good Edmunds is, he's actually worth $13-15, and the Bills might very well pay it, or (2) you're right in your assessment, and he could be had for $7-8 million.   If you're right about how good he is, no one is paying $15.   Teams wouldn't even pay Clowney $15.  

 

Plus, I think you're underestimating McDermott's confidence in the Growth Mindset.   McDermott thinks his players, including Edmunds, are going to get better every year.  He and Beane only choose players who have a burning desire to improve, and Edmunds is one of those.  So I'm sure they are very much of the view that we haven't seen the best of Tremaine Edmunds yet.   

 

I'll be amazed if they don't exercise the option and/or extend.  

 

 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

When I see the D-line putting little pressure on quality QBs and a scheme that isolates Edmunds on underneath routes I don't take stats like that seriously. How was his performance in 19, when Phillips had 10 sacks and the Bills had a great defense. When Milano played and the D-line played good run defense, Edmunds played good enough to win 10 in a row. You want big plays that's fine, give me a mlb who can run down tailbacks and running QBs. Give me Ws. That's what you get with Tremaine. 

That’s what you get when he’s playing with Josh Allen and a great head coach.  If you think that WINS is a Tremaine Edmunds stat, you’re mistaken. 
 

The DL and pass rush don’t have anything to do with his play recognition and his penchant to be moved by the QBs eyes and play fakes.  He’s often out of place due to his eyes and lack of instincts playing the positions.  
 

Again.....jmo.  I hope that he can improve.  He’s still young and the sky is the limit.  I just don’t want to be on the hook for a huge salary if we’re just paying for potential. Pay for production.  The decisions are coming.  Hopefully Edmunds can deliver the results 

[NewEra]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you're missing the point.  If Edmunds is a guy who is " a detriment to his team and targeted by the opposition," I don't think anyone is paying him $13 million a year.  That doesn't happen any more.   Clowney, who is a better raw talent than Edmunds, only got $12 million when he hit free agency, and he is/was a guy with elite pass-rush talent.  

 

That's why I think either (1) you're wrong in your assessment of how good Edmunds is, he's actually worth $13-15, and the Bills might very well pay it, or (2) you're right in your assessment, and he could be had for $7-8 million.   If you're right about how good he is, no one is paying $15.   Teams wouldn't even pay Clowney $15.  

 

Plus, I think you're underestimating McDermott's confidence in the Growth Mindset.   McDermott thinks his players, including Edmunds, are going to get better every year.  He and Beane only choose players who have a burning desire to improve, and Edmunds is one of those.  So I'm sure they are very much of the view that we haven't seen the best of Tremaine Edmunds yet.   

 

I'll be amazed if they don't exercise the option and/or extend.  

 

 

In an offseason where the salary cap went down, Carl Lawson was just paid 15M per year.  He’s targeted all the time in the run game.  He’s one of the worst run defenders in the league.  
 

The cap goes up and will continue to go up thereafter.  If Edmunds hits free agency, he’ll be 24-25 coming off 2-4 pro bowls.  Someone will pay him, regardless of how we feel about him.  
 

I’m not underestimating anything regarding McD and how he thinks.  I don’t believe that we’ll ever trade Edmunds.  I believe that McD LOVES Edmunds and will resign him to a big contract regardless of whether he’s worth it or not.  This is what scares me and why I would trade him. 

[Shaw66]

21 minutes ago, NewEra said:

In an offseason where the salary cap went down, Carl Lawson was just paid 15M per year.  He’s targeted all the time in the run game.  He’s one of the worst run defenders in the league.  
 

The cap goes up and will continue to go up thereafter.  If Edmunds hits free agency, he’ll be 24-25 coming off 2-4 pro bowls.  Someone will pay him, regardless of how we feel about him.  
 

I’m not underestimating anything regarding McD and how he thinks.  I don’t believe that we’ll ever trade Edmunds.  I believe that McD LOVES Edmunds and will resign him to a big contract regardless of whether he’s worth it or not.  This is what scares me and why I would trade him. 

Thanks.   I don't pay much attention to what others are getting   The Lawson info makes your point nicely.  

 

Sounds like we agree about what McDermott thinks; you're just more disappointed in that assessment than I am.   I'm trusting McD.  

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.   I don't pay much attention to what others are getting   The Lawson info makes your point nicely.  

 

Sounds like we agree about what McDermott thinks; you're just more disappointed in that assessment than I am.   I'm trusting McD.  

I think McD is about much more than “just football”.  Probably more so than any other coach in the league.  I think McD loves tremaine the person so much that he wouldn’t want to “give up on him”.  Letting him go or trading him would be giving up on him amidst all the whispers about his disappointing play.  I dunno if McD is the type to give up on PEOPLE that he loves.  Not the player. The person. 
 

this could definitely work against us in the future and might be working against us already.  I mean, Mario Addison and Vernon Butler are back when they could’ve saved cap space by cutting them. Why on earth would he want to bring back Addison and pay him 7M or so?  He was pretty terrible last year.  

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, NewEra said:

That’s what you get when he’s playing with Josh Allen and a great head coach.  If you think that WINS is a Tremaine Edmunds stat, you’re mistaken. 
 

 

Wins isn't a linebacker stat.  It's only a QB stat.  

 

I've said this before - NO position player other than QB delivers wins.   I heard Colin Cowherd talking about this a few years ago, when JJ Watt still was the consensus best defensive player in the league.   He asked a Vegas bookmaker how much Watt being out of the lineup changes the point spread.   The answer:  one half point.   The best defensive player in the league, one half point.  It's a team game, it's a coaches' game, it's a quarterbacks game.   

 

No one should be expecting the middle linebacker to deliver wins.   He's just a piece of the puzzle, a more important piece than some other pieces, but just a piece.   And that's why I'm not very concerned about this.   Edmunds is certainly in the top 15 MLBs, probably in the top 10.   Unless you can get me the consensus number 1 linebacker in the league, the performance of the team is not going to change very much by getting someone better at MLB.   And if Edmunds fits the style of play that McD wants, then you're almost certainly not going to get someone who fits his defense better.   

 

Edmunds is playing what is the fifth or sixth most important position in a game where only one - maybe two - positions really matter.  

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I think McD is about much more than “just football”.  Probably more so than any other coach in the league.  I think McD loves tremaine the person so much that he wouldn’t want to “give up on him”.  Letting him go or trading him would be giving up on him amidst all the whispers about his disappointing play.  I dunno if McD is the type to give up on PEOPLE that he loves.  Not the player. The person. 
 

this could definitely work against us in the future and might be working against us already.  I mean, Mario Addison and Vernon Butler are back when they could’ve saved cap space by cutting them. Why on earth would he want to bring back Addison and pay him 7M or so?  He was pretty terrible last year.  

I think McDermott is better than you think.  McDermott is an absolute realist about what he is doing, and he knows that he can't let how he feels about a guy control his football decisions.  He is dedicated to the bottom line - you're either doing the job or you're not, you're either improving or you're not.   He's dedicated to competition.   I don't think he has any trouble at all looking a guy in the eye, a guy he loves, and telling him that his time is up.   McDermott is committed to doing his job, and doing his job means having those hard conversations.   

 

Where McDermott may have a problem is not with Tremaine the person, but Tremaine the athlete.   The idea of having a 6'5" 250 pound guy who runs like a safety playing in the middle of the defense is an idea that McD may not want to give up on.   It's really tantalizing to him.   Edmunds is probably the best middle linebacker in the history of the game for covering the deep middle in the Tampa 2, a defense McDermott loves.   THAT's what McDermott will have trouble giving up on. 

[Eastport bills]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

That’s what you get when he’s playing with Josh Allen and a great head coach.  If you think that WINS is a Tremaine Edmunds stat, you’re mistaken. 
 

The DL and pass rush don’t have anything to do with his play recognition and his penchant to be moved by the QBs eyes and play fakes.  He’s often out of place due to his eyes and lack of instincts playing the positions.  
 

Again.....jmo.  I hope that he can improve.  He’s still young and the sky is the limit.  I just don’t want to be on the hook for a huge salary if we’re just paying for potential. Pay for production.  The decisions are coming.  Hopefully Edmunds can deliver the results 

I can’t convince you his value is what Beane and Sean thinks it is despite your analysis. They would have pulled the trigger on replacing him this offseason with his low cap impact and moved around space to put an improvement in there. His position and their proximity to the promised land demand production. I respect your insight but please don't expect any rookie to improve that position. Anything is possible but very unlikely. 

[JPP]

Keep him....he was injured for part of the season and seemed to rebound pretty good in the latter part.....get rid of him just for belicheat to pick him up and boom.....guy becomes a pro bowler...

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Eastport bills said:

I can’t convince you his value is what Beane and Sean thinks it is despite your analysis. They would have pulled the trigger on replacing him this offseason with his low cap impact and moved around space to put an improvement in there. His position and their proximity to the promised land demand production. I respect your insight but please don't expect any rookie to improve that position. Anything is possible but very unlikely. 

a rookie may not improve the defense in 2021.  I’m not saying that one would.  My point:  it’s looking like Tremaine has a lot of improvement to make if he is going to be worth the lucrative extension that he will likely be given (by someone if not us). His talent is apparent and I’m sure there’s a GM that will pay him based on what he could be.  Just like we drafted him for what he could be.  
 

To your point, Tremaine playing MLB may give our team its best chance to win the SB in 2021.  I don’t feel that he’s a bad player.  I just don’t think he knows how to play MLB very well.  Based on what I’ve seen from him to date, I don’t think he’ll be worth investing in long term unless it’s for under 7-8M a year.  Sometimes cutting bait is the quickest way to recoup, especially if you can get something valuable in return.  

[Eastport bills]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

a rookie may not improve the defense in 2021.  I’m not saying that one would.  My point:  it’s looking like Tremaine has a lot of improvement to make if he is going to be worth the lucrative extension that he will likely be given (by someone if not us). His talent is apparent and I’m sure there’s a GM that will pay him based on what he could be.  Just like we drafted him for what he could be.  
 

To your point, Tremaine playing MLB may give our team its best chance to win the SB in 2021.  I don’t feel that he’s a bad player.  I just don’t think he knows how to play MLB very well.  Based on what I’ve seen from him to date, I don’t think he’ll be worth investing in long term unless it’s for under 7-8M a year.  Sometimes cutting bait is the quickest way to recoup, especially if you can get something valuable in return.  

Fair enough, I hope he makes us both proud. 

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, Mango said:

It all depends on value of an extension. Edmunds is a decent MLB. Not great. Not terrible. My big thing is, between some of the Edmunds projections for an extension work ~$15M, that will have the Bills spending about $32M on Klein, Milano, and Edmunds alone. That’s right around top 5 money for LB spending in the league, and that doesn’t account for depth. 
 

I don’t know how you justify spending that much money on what has been just an OK group after you extend Allen. 
 

I don’t want to create another hole because I think Edmunds is at worst serviceable. But I don’t want to dedicate that much money to a middling LB Corp. 

 

I agree with @GunnerBill, I think McBeane are committed to the kid. But I would feel more comfortable if he signed closer to Milanos value. 

This is really all that matters. Overpaying for non-factors like Edmunds is how you become a bad team.

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, JPP said:

Keep him....he was injured for part of the season and seemed to rebound pretty good in the latter part.....get rid of him just for belicheat to pick him up and boom.....guy becomes a pro bowler...

He’s already one 2x so....

 

oh I see if he’s with the Pats he’s a “real” pro bowler... is that how it goes 

Edited April 15, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[WideNine]

Other than his instincts diagnosing plays, hitting the right gaps, taking the right leverage, defending passes, shedding blocks and tacking he was pretty awesome last season.

 

He is a physical freak and an enigma. The enigma is that for some games he will come out and play smart, sound, and aggressive - I will not take that away from him. He also played through a very painful injury, so I am not going to question his heart. Coaches and most fans see the player he could be, then for multi-game stretches he is a non-factor, or a liability....

 

I just don't get it, but mostly I think he just struggles with his instincts/diagnosing plays. That would explain being in poor position to beat blocks, taking the wrong gaps, the bad angles, falling for misdirection and fake moves, the late arrivals on the scene and the poor arm tackling. Players that can quickly diagnose plays look more aggressive simply because they anticipate and knock down passes or are slipping around blocks before they are setup and can get in the backfield or they help turn plays back into pursuit or blow them up before they can gain any traction.

 

Tough one - you would think after so many years playing that position for the Bills coupled with the film study that the mental part of the game would kick in for the kid.

 

 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, WideNine said:

Other than his instincts diagnosing plays, hitting the right gaps, taking the right leverage, defending passes, shedding blocks and tacking he was pretty awesome last season.

 

He is a physical freak and an enigma. The enigma is that for some games he will come out and play smart, sound, and aggressive - I will not take that away from him. He also played through a very painful injury, so I am not going to question his heart. Coaches and most fans see the player he could be, then for multi-game stretches he is a non-factor, or a liability....

 

I just don't get it, but mostly I think he just struggles with his instincts/diagnosing plays. That would explain being in poor position to beat blocks, taking the wrong gaps, the bad angles, falling for misdirection and fake moves, the late arrivals on the scene and the poor arm tackling. Players that can quickly diagnose plays look more aggressive simply because they anticipate and knock down passes or are slipping around blocks before they are setup and can get in the backfield or they help turn plays back into pursuit or blow them up before they can gain any traction.

 

 

 

Enigma is the word.   

 

It's enigmatic how a guy who has trouble with "his instincts diagnosing plays, hitting the right gaps, taking the right leverage, defending passes, shedding blocks and tacking" could be 17th in the league in tackles.   Particularly when someone else on his team (Poyer) was 12th.  Particularly when he played only 15 games and almost everyone ahead of him played 16 - if you extrapolate for 16 games he was 9th in the league in tackles.   So how bad can those instincts, gap decisions, leverage decisions and tackling be?  

 

Don't get me wrong - what you say rings true to me - what you describe is what I see.   But I think we may remembering the mistakes and not remembering every play.  9th in the league in tackles ain't bad.  

 

I wonder, for example, if he's really a late arrival on the scene, which is something that has bothered me since he got to Buffalo.   Why is he showing up right after the tackle?   Well, if he's 9th in the league in tackles, he's showing up on time a lot of the time, and maybe, just maybe, he isn't arriving late on the scene of tackles at all.  Maybe he's just pursuing every play and arriving on the scene of tackles that most other MLBs never arrive at.   I don't know, there's no stat for late arrivals, but 9th in the league in tackles says he getting to a lot of tackles.  

 

Wrong gaps?   I saw a lot of that his first season, not much his second, and he seemed to regress last season.   How much of the apparent regression was Star's absence?  I don't know.  

 

I want him to be more physical and more of a sure tackler, but I doubt that his production is nearly as poor as you suggest it is.   And, let me say again that watching the games I see it the way you say.   I just think what I see is a naive, fan's view.  Ninth in tackles is ninth in tackles.  

 

My guess is that Edmunds is better than you and I think, and that he's not done getting better.  

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, JPP said:

Keep him....he was injured for part of the season and seemed to rebound pretty good in the latter part.....get rid of him just for belicheat to pick him up and boom.....guy becomes a pro bowler...

I’m just wondering if better play from the interior defensive line would make Edmunds more effective?

[JPP]

41 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He’s already one 2x so....

 

oh I see if he’s with the Pats he’s a “real” pro bowler... is that how it goes 

Its called sarcasm-wink wink...edmunds will only get better!  No debate as far im concerned keep him.

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Enigma is the word.   

 

It's enigmatic how a guy who has trouble with "his instincts diagnosing plays, hitting the right gaps, taking the right leverage, defending passes, shedding blocks and tacking" could be 17th in the league in tackles.   Particularly when someone else on his team (Poyer) was 12th.  Particularly when he played only 15 games and almost everyone ahead of him played 16 - if you extrapolate for 16 games he was 9th in the league in tackles.   So how bad can those instincts, gap decisions, leverage decisions and tackling be?  

 

Don't get me wrong - what you say rings true to me - what you describe is what I see.   But I think we may remembering the mistakes and not remembering every play.  9th in the league in tackles ain't bad.  

 

I wonder, for example, if he's really a late arrival on the scene, which is something that has bothered me since he got to Buffalo.   Why is he showing up right after the tackle?   Well, if he's 9th in the league in tackles, he's showing up on time a lot of the time, and maybe, just maybe, he isn't arriving late on the scene of tackles at all.  Maybe he's just pursuing every play and arriving on the scene of tackles that most other MLBs never arrive at.   I don't know, there's no stat for late arrivals, but 9th in the league in tackles says he getting to a lot of tackles.  

 

Wrong gaps?   I saw a lot of that his first season, not much his second, and he seemed to regress last season.   How much of the apparent regression was Star's absence?  I don't know.  

 

I want him to be more physical and more of a sure tackler, but I doubt that his production is nearly as poor as you suggest it is.   And, let me say again that watching the games I see it the way you say.   I just think what I see is a naive, fan's view.  Ninth in tackles is ninth in tackles.  

 

My guess is that Edmunds is better than you and I think, and that he's not done getting better.  

 

Number of tackles is a deceiving stat if taken alone.

 

How many tackles trailing plays?How many tackles for a loss?

 

You miss your gap, or take a bad angle, fail to shed your block, but have the recovery speed and range to chase the play down...AFTER a team makes yards or converts.

 

This is the key difference between reactive and instinctual play from that Mike position.

 

It's not that much of an enigma.

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I think the problem is the contract. He's getting at least a Milano deal. More likely closer to $15 million per. I don't think as of now he's that player. Most would love him at the money he's at, but this is the last year for that. Time is now to decide if he's a future leader of the defense or not. 

[Shaw66]

Just now, WideNine said:

 

Number of tackles is a deceiving stat if taken alone.

 

How many tackles trailing plays?How many tackles for a loss?

 

You miss your gap, or take a bad angle, fail to shed your block, but have the recovery speed and range to chase the play down...AFTER a team makes yards or converts.

 

This is the key difference between reactive and instinctual play from that Mike position.

 

It's not that much of an enigma.

 

 

 

Come on.  If tackles is a deceiving stat, that "late to arrive" is total bs.  You can't have it both ways.  

 

If the argument is that he takes bad angles, he goes to the wrong gaps, he arrives late on plays, and he has bad instincts, how is it possible that he's in on all these tackles.   They aren't phantom tackles.   He was actually there for the tackle.  

 

Why don't other Bills have all those tackles?   Maybe they're the problem.