Reading the tea leaves. (Mostly Oline related)

[Allen2Moulds]

I'm just a regular fan and far from an expert, but here are my 2 cents, judging by what Brandon Beane said on WGR the other day, along with another guest analyst earlier today.

 

They both mentioned that the running game woes werd more oline and scheme related, than RB related. Which means, don't expect pick 30 to be a RB, prob not until day 3 if any are even added. Our main focus will be 2 find a way to take the next step with the oline. Improve our run blocking without sacrificing too much in pass pro. Beane also mentioned that we practically got nothing out of our TE position. Also expect us to do all we can to improve our TE room.

 

Until the AFC Championship game, our oline had a phenomenal year protecting Josh Allen.  But.......we have a finesse line that couldn't create running lanes even against light boxes. That likely will be a major focus this off-season.  Expect us to roll out a more physical group up the middle. This doesn't mean that we will suddenly become a running team, we just have to be able to keep teams honest and make them pay when they don't. Teams dared us too run in the playoffs and we failed miserably.

This doesn't bode well for Morse, who not only doesn't fit the bill, but also has a large contract and is a concusion risk. I think they will resign Feliciano with the intention to move him to Center permanently.

Love him or hate him, Cody Ford is likely still part of the plan at one of the guard spots. He still has a lot of refining to do, and will likely cost us a few pass pro reps, but the hope is that he gives us more of a boost in the running game, and he's cheap. I also think they resign Daryl Williams.  He's relatively young and had an outstanding year at RT. That still leaves 1 of the guard spots up for grabs.

 

Projected starting 5

 

Dion/Boetger or Rook/Feliciano/Ford/Williams

 

As for TE, expect them to make 1 big splash via FA or trade to bring in a playmaking TE. TE's rarely make impacts as rookies, and I think we're ready to compete now.

[YoloinOhio]

https://www.si.com/nfl/eagles/news/zach-ertz-will-likely-play-elsewhere-in-2021

🙏

[Allen2Moulds]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/eagles/news/zach-ertz-will-likely-play-elsewhere-in-2021

🙏

I'm hoping that this year was more of an anomaly for him due to injuries, and the dumpster fire that became the Eagles. If he's anything even close to what he was 2 or 3 years ago, than by all means go after him. He would look great in a Bills uniform.

[Billy Claude]

1 hour ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Beane also mentioned that we practically got nothing out of our TE position.

 

Did he actually say this?   Usually Beane is not that blunt -- especially with regard to a fairly high draft pick.

[Punching Bag]

20 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

Did he actually say this?   Usually Beane is not that blunt -- especially with regard to a fairly high draft pick.

 

He said reading the tea leaves which is same thing as reading between lines which is dependent upon the reader. Some can be really good but could be misreading them especially if source tends to sometimes likes to lead press, agents and others to false conclusions.

[DrPJax]

22 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I'm just a regular fan and far from an expert, but here are my 2 cents, judging by what Brandon Beane said on WGR the other day, along with another guest analyst earlier today.

 

They both mentioned that the running game woes werd more oline and scheme related, than RB related. Which means, don't expect pick 30 to be a RB, prob not until day 3 if any are even added. Our main focus will be 2 find a way to take the next step with the oline. Improve our run blocking without sacrificing too much in pass pro. Beane also mentioned that we practically got nothing out of our TE position. Also expect us to do all we can to improve our TE room.

 

Until the AFC Championship game, our oline had a phenomenal year protecting Josh Allen.  But.......we have a finesse line that couldn't create running lanes even against light boxes. That likely will be a major focus this off-season.  Expect us to roll out a more physical group up the middle. This doesn't mean that we will suddenly become a running team, we just have to be able to keep teams honest and make them pay when they don't. Teams dared us too run in the playoffs and we failed miserably.

This doesn't bode well for Morse, who not only doesn't fit the bill, but also has a large contract and is a concusion risk. I think they will resign Feliciano with the intention to move him to Center permanently.

Love him or hate him, Cody Ford is likely still part of the plan at one of the guard spots. He still has a lot of refining to do, and will likely cost us a few pass pro reps, but the hope is that he gives us more of a boost in the running game, and he's cheap. I also think they resign Daryl Williams.  He's relatively young and had an outstanding year at RT. That still leaves 1 of the guard spots up for grabs.

 

Projected starting 5

 

Dion/Boetger or Rook/Feliciano/Ford/Williams

 

As for TE, expect them to make 1 big splash via FA or trade to bring in a playmaking TE. TE's rarely make impacts as rookies, and I think we're ready to compete now.

I was wondering since you used the term “ light boxes”if you had seen the season review of our running game done on COVER 1 , as they used that term extensively. If you haven’t seen it , please take the time as it’s well worth watching them break down the run gsme with film over the entire year. 
After seeing it , it is amazing to think we won so many games while being abysmal ( esp compared to previous  year) in the run game. It was a total switch in scheme from gap based to zone based running and we had to g there because of the horrid blocking along the line. In particular, our guards were terrible, Williams was also astonishing bad and whiffed outright so many times it was laughable. Even Dawkins technically had a mediocre year.   Aftery watching the run blocking you will most likely come to another conclusion aboit the resigning Williams! Our interior line , mostly the guards were horrible. Morse , who is better at gap blocking actually had a great year but because of the other players issues requiring a shift in scheme ( actually a coaching or intelligence issue as these guys could not run simple trap plays, they were lost) was being misused  running the zone scheme. 
 

To top things off both backs contributed to poor running as well. They were both terrible in light boxes ( 6 or less in the box, which we face often with Josh in shotgun and being a spread offense)and missed huge opportunities when the line did manage to hit their targets. They were both bad at breaking tackles.  Also they are both slow ( spending Time behind the line before hitting a hole) with Devin ranking 52 / 55 qualifying backs with 2.96 sec avg time behind the line. Moss was also poor at 2.76 seconds, placing him in th 40 range compared to other backs.  When you see them miss holes , break the wrong way in reference to how a blocker  had turned or had leverage over his target, it  becomes obvious why we got handled in the playoffs from a running game point. 
 

So it comes down to three things; 1 ) terrible o line coaching and also most likely bad RB coaching , resulting in terrible results compared o to 2019  2) Our backs are inexperienced, slow , are not good at breaking tackles , did not hit holes when the scheme did work. 3) our interior lineman , mostly the guards had a terrible year and their effort at times was hard to believe. They missed assignments, then would stand in the way rather than looking for someone to hit! Williams technically was also terrible in the run game.   Take the time to check the review of the all 22 and you will see we have work to do on the interior line!  We probably need a new o line coach , and we need a back who can hit the holes quickly with power. Will influence how you view our draft , coaching after you see a years worth of film evaluated.  I am not affiliated with cover 1 at all; be open minded and give it a look. Your own eyes won’t lie to you and the run game issues are multi factorial.  We have to solve the issue tho as 70% of runs came from the shotgun formation,  something Josh thrives in, so our offensive success depends on fixing these issues ! (Addendum ; sorry for typos as this was done late night on an iPad which for some reason puts in its own creative words and punctuation at times!!)

Edited February 4, 2021 by DrPJax

[YoloinOhio]

5 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

Did he actually say this?   Usually Beane is not that blunt -- especially with regard to a fairly high draft pick.

He pretty much did. 

[HOUSE]

So what time are you reading the Tea Leaves?

 

 

[Big Turk]

8 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I'm just a regular fan and far from an expert, but here are my 2 cents, judging by what Brandon Beane said on WGR the other day, along with another guest analyst earlier today.

 

They both mentioned that the running game woes werd more oline and scheme related, than RB related. Which means, don't expect pick 30 to be a RB, prob not until day 3 if any are even added. Our main focus will be 2 find a way to take the next step with the oline. Improve our run blocking without sacrificing too much in pass pro. Beane also mentioned that we practically got nothing out of our TE position. Also expect us to do all we can to improve our TE room.

 

Until the AFC Championship game, our oline had a phenomenal year protecting Josh Allen.  But.......we have a finesse line that couldn't create running lanes even against light boxes. That likely will be a major focus this off-season.  Expect us to roll out a more physical group up the middle. This doesn't mean that we will suddenly become a running team, we just have to be able to keep teams honest and make them pay when they don't. Teams dared us too run in the playoffs and we failed miserably.

This doesn't bode well for Morse, who not only doesn't fit the bill, but also has a large contract and is a concusion risk. I think they will resign Feliciano with the intention to move him to Center permanently.

Love him or hate him, Cody Ford is likely still part of the plan at one of the guard spots. He still has a lot of refining to do, and will likely cost us a few pass pro reps, but the hope is that he gives us more of a boost in the running game, and he's cheap. I also think they resign Daryl Williams.  He's relatively young and had an outstanding year at RT. That still leaves 1 of the guard spots up for grabs.

 

Projected starting 5

 

Dion/Boetger or Rook/Feliciano/Ford/Williams

 

As for TE, expect them to make 1 big splash via FA or trade to bring in a playmaking TE. TE's rarely make impacts as rookies, and I think we're ready to compete now.

 

Actually they were very poor at pass pro in both games against the Chiefs. They need to figure out what they did and address it.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, DrPJax said:

I was wondering since you used the term “ light boxes”if you had seen the season review of our running game done on COVER 1 , as they used that term extensively. If you haven’t seen it , please take the time as it’s well worth watching them break down the run gsme with film over the entire year. 
After seeing it , it is amazing to think we won so many games while being abysmal ( esp compared to previous  year) in the run game. It was a total switch in scheme from gap based to zone based running and we had to g there because of the horrid blocking along the line. In particular, our guards were terrible, Williams was also astonishing bad and whiffed outright so many times it was laughable. Even Dawkins technically had a mediocre year.   Aftery watching the run blocking you will most likely come to another conclusion aboit the resigning Williams! Our interior line , mostly the guards were horrible. Morse , who is better at gap blocking actually had a great year but because of the other players issues requiring a shift in scheme ( actually a coaching or intelligence issue as these guys could not run simple trap plays, they were lost) was being misused in. The zone scheme. 
 

To top things off both backs contributed to poor running as well. They were both terrible in light boxes ( 6 or less which we face often with Josh in shotgun and being a spread offense)and missed huge opportunities when the line did manage to hit their targets. They were both bad at breaking tackles.  Also they are both slow ( spending Time behind the line before hitting a hole) with Devin ranking 52 / 55 qualifying backs with 2.96 sec avg time behind the line. Moss was also poor at 2.76 , placing him in th 40 range compared to other backs.  When you see them miss holes , break the wrong way in reference to how a blocker  had turned or had leverage over his target, it  becomes obvious why we got handled in the playoffs from. Run game point. 
 

So it comes down to three things; 1 ) terrible o line coaching and also most likely bad B coaching , resulting in terrible results compared o to 2019  2) Our backs are inexperienced, slow , are not good at breaking tackles , did not hit holes when the scheme did work. 3) our interior lineman , mostly the guards had a terrible year and their effort at times wa hard to believe. Williams technically was also terrible in the run game.   Take the time to check the review of the all 22 and you will see we have work to do on the interior line , we probably need a new o line coach , and we need a back who can hit the holes quickly with power. Will influence how you view th draft , coaching , after you see a years worth of film evaluated.  I am not affiliated with cover 1 at all; be open minded and it take a look. Your own eyes won’t lie to you and the run game issues are multi factorial.  We have to solve the issue tho as 70% of runs cam from the shotgun formation,  something Josh thrives in, so our offensive success depends on fixing these issues ! 

 

If you have a link would love to watch this. 

 

But I have been saying all year it is a mix of poor run blocking AND running backs who are slow to accelerate and hit the hole. That combination has been the problem. 

 

It isn't just the running backs, but it isn't just the line either. 

 

My conclusion is I'd rather not mess too much with a line that Kansas City games apart had a really nice year in pass pro. I don't want to sacrifice pass game production for run game production and so while I totally agree that the reasons for the struggle are shared the more palatable solution in my mind is more speed at running back so that those holes are being hit more quickly. Equally though I don't want to spend big resources on it. The Bills should be looking for a diamond in the rough speed back IMO. 

[SectionC3]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If you have a link would love to watch this. 

 

But I have been saying all year it is a mix of poor run blocking AND running backs who are slow to accelerate and hit the hole. That combination has been the problem. 

 

It isn't just the running backs, but it isn't just the line either. 

 

My conclusion is I'd rather not mess too much with a line that Kansas City games apart had a really nice year in pass pro. I don't want to sacrifice pass game production for run game production and so while I totally agree that the reasons for the struggle are shared the more palatable solution in my mind is more speed at running back so that those holes are being hit more quickly. Equally though I don't want to spend big resources on it. The Bills should be looking for a diamond in the rough speed back IMO. 

I agree with this, but I'll take it a step further.  I wonder if we need a better short yardage back, too.  One of the things I think we have to do next year is ensure that Josh Allen is not our best short yardage back.  We had a couple of close calls this year -- the Bosa thing against the Chargers, and I think one in the playoffs, too.  Nothing can derail a season like an injury to Allen. 

[BBills_88]

I'd rather draft or sign a undrafted Free agent that is  younger faster TE,  most of the great TE's of late have a BBALL background.

I know there was not much of College football this year to choose from but I have faith in our Staff. 

 

I would bring back Croom.

[4merper4mer]

At RB you are all forgetting we have that cricket player dude from Scotland.  He will have three camps underneath his belt by next season.  I think the line will be a big part early in the draft.  

[Allen2Moulds]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If you have a link would love to watch this. 

 

But I have been saying all year it is a mix of poor run blocking AND running backs who are slow to accelerate and hit the hole. That combination has been the problem. 

 

It isn't just the running backs, but it isn't just the line either. 

 

My conclusion is I'd rather not mess too much with a line that Kansas City games apart had a really nice year in pass pro. I don't want to sacrifice pass game production for run game production and so while I totally agree that the reasons for the struggle are shared the more palatable solution in my mind is more speed at running back so that those holes are being hit more quickly. Equally though I don't want to spend big resources on it. The Bills should be looking for a diamond in the rough speed back IMO. 

Thanks Gunner, what you're saying makes sense, and matches what I saw. It just doesn't seem like Beane thinks the problem is with the backs. I mean, he was responsible for drafting both of them, so there could be a little bias there, although he doesn't have a record of doing that. 

 

Which back do you like in the draft?

 

And who would be your ideal starting 5?

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Thanks Gunner, what you're saying makes sense, and matches what I saw. It just doesn't seem like Beane thinks the problem is with the backs. I mean, he was responsible for drafting both of them, so there could be a little bias there, although he doesn't have a record of doing that. 

 

Which back do you like in the draft?

 

And who would be your ideal starting 5?

 

I don't know yet. Need to give it more thought.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I've said for as few weeks it is time to cut Morse. This is what I would like to see:

Bring back Feliciano to play C; Ford starts at Guard; bring back Williams at RT;trade out of 30 into first part of the second round picking up an extra third round pick; draft true center, edge, TE, and MLB with their first four picks; and lastly move Edmunds to OLB

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I've said for as few weeks it is time to cut Morse. This is what I would like to see:

Bring back Feliciano to play C; Ford starts at Guard; bring back Williams at RT;trade out of 30 into first part of the second round picking up an extra third round pick; draft true center, edge, TE, and MLB with their first four picks; and lastly move Edmunds to OLB

Last I knew, teams only started 1 center as there is only 1 ball.  Who plays the other guard opposite Ford?

[34-78-83]

8 hours ago, DrPJax said:

I was wondering since you used the term “ light boxes”if you had seen the season review of our running game done on COVER 1 , as they used that term extensively. If you haven’t seen it , please take the time as it’s well worth watching them break down the run gsme with film over the entire year. 
After seeing it , it is amazing to think we won so many games while being abysmal ( esp compared to previous  year) in the run game. It was a total switch in scheme from gap based to zone based running and we had to g there because of the horrid blocking along the line. In particular, our guards were terrible, Williams was also astonishing bad and whiffed outright so many times it was laughable. Even Dawkins technically had a mediocre year.   Aftery watching the run blocking you will most likely come to another conclusion aboit the resigning Williams! Our interior line , mostly the guards were horrible. Morse , who is better at gap blocking actually had a great year but because of the other players issues requiring a shift in scheme ( actually a coaching or intelligence issue as these guys could not run simple trap plays, they were lost) was being misused in. The zone scheme. 
 

To top things off both backs contributed to poor running as well. They were both terrible in light boxes ( 6 or less which we face often with Josh in shotgun and being a spread offense)and missed huge opportunities when the line did manage to hit their targets. They were both bad at breaking tackles.  Also they are both slow ( spending Time behind the line before hitting a hole) with Devin ranking 52 / 55 qualifying backs with 2.96 sec avg time behind the line. Moss was also poor at 2.76 , placing him in th 40 range compared to other backs.  When you see them miss holes , break the wrong way in reference to how a blocker  had turned or had leverage over his target, it  becomes obvious why we got handled in the playoffs from. Run game point. 
 

So it comes down to three things; 1 ) terrible o line coaching and also most likely bad B coaching , resulting in terrible results compared o to 2019  2) Our backs are inexperienced, slow , are not good at breaking tackles , did not hit holes when the scheme did work. 3) our interior lineman , mostly the guards had a terrible year and their effort at times wa hard to believe. Williams technically was also terrible in the run game.   Take the time to check the review of the all 22 and you will see we have work to do on the interior line , we probably need a new o line coach , and we need a back who can hit the holes quickly with power. Will influence how you view th draft , coaching , after you see a years worth of film evaluated.  I am not affiliated with cover 1 at all; be open minded and it take a look. Your own eyes won’t lie to you and the run game issues are multi factorial.  We have to solve the issue tho as 70% of runs cam from the shotgun formation,  something Josh thrives in, so our offensive success depends on fixing these issues ! 

This is a really good post but also remember that cover1 breakdown was focused on the shortcomings in the running game, when specific bad plays happened. Its very accurate and right to point out the line as most of the problem and the backs as some part of it too. Just be careful not to let this review make you think the team is going to replace 3 or more linemen along with both backs. This film review didn't go over the successful plays made by these players in the run game, nor show that both backs are pretty good in pass pro. The Bills still believe in these backs and will stick with them, as they should, and backs don't require breakaway speed. Maybe they'll pick a fast one up later in the draft for a change of pace... I see up to 2 lineman being replaced by better run blockers. This line gave up the most hits on backs in the backfield and that makes a huge difference. This team is a passing team that is best with the ball in Josh's hands, and likes to spread 4 wide more than any other team. That puts them at a disadvantage in the run game from the start, and they know this. This will a calculated adjustment, not a full blown re-vamp. (IMO)

[Dkollidas]

10 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/eagles/news/zach-ertz-will-likely-play-elsewhere-in-2021

🙏

That’s my wish in free agency/trade.

 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Thanks Gunner, what you're saying makes sense, and matches what I saw. It just doesn't seem like Beane thinks the problem is with the backs. I mean, he was responsible for drafting both of them, so there could be a little bias there, although he doesn't have a record of doing that. 

 

Which back do you like in the draft?

 

And who would be your ideal starting 5?

Haven’t dove in deep yet, but here are some RBs that would give us some speed we’re lacking

rd 1-3

Travis Etienne- might not be available at 30

Kenneth Gainwell- my favorite

Michael Carter- my 2nd favorite 

Demetric Felton- 3rd favorite 

Chuba Hubbard

later rounds

Xazavian Valladay

Javian Hawkins

pooka williams

jaquan Hardy 

 

Javonte Williams and Najee Harris may not have the breakaway speed the backs above have, but teams wouldn’t be able to play dime against us all game if we had either of them.