Brandon Beane end of season press conference 1/27 11am

[Dkollidas]

3 minutes ago, Estro said:

After listening to Beane, my between the line thoughts were as follows:

 

FA's

 

1- Jon Feliciano - They want him back and they'll probably be able to get him back because he's not a break the bank type of FA.

 

2- Matt Milano - I think they really want him back, but they know he's going to be looking for more than what they want to spend.  Beane brought up his availability as a problem, and used the word "good" player on a couple of occasions......I think Beane was posturing a bit, they want him for $11.5-$12M a yr....he probably wants $14-15M.  Can he get it on the open market? In a normal FA yr. I think he could, hut there won't be the same money out there this year.  Thus one really seems like a 50/50 proposition, but I do believe the Bills want him back more than they are publicly willing to admit.  Likely a 3rd round compensatory pick if he leaves.

 

3- Daryl Williams- Got the feeling the Bills won't be buying high on Williams.  They git a great yr out of him, but Beane didn't sound like a guy that wanted to bet on Williams long term.  I think they'd have him back on a team friendly deal, but I think there will be other teams willing to go where the Bills won't be.  Possible 4th/5th compensatory pick in next yrs draft if he leaves.

 

4- Matt Barkley - Beane was very complimentary and thankful toward Barkley and his wife.  Had the sound of a good bye to me.  Pretty sure he won't receive an offer from the Bills unless it's vet min. & I don't think Barkley would play for that.

 

Possible cuts:

 

John Brown - I think hes gone

 

Lee Smith - Gone 

 

V. Butler/Q. Jefferson/M. Addison - I think 1 of these guys is definitely cut, 2 is possible and it wouldn't shock me if all 3 are let go.  Beane admitted that if they knew what the cap was going to be this coming yr. They wouldn't have signed all the DL they did.  That to me is an admission that 1 or 2 of them will have to go.  I'd say Vernon Butler is the most likely to be cut as his game is most similar to Stars (assuming he comes back, which maybe he wont).  I would put Addison as the next most likely l, considering his age (34) and a very so so yr in '20

 

Mitch Morse - This one is tricky.  Cutting him saves them only $2ish M in cap space, but doing so basically admits this was a big whiff of a signing.  They've paid him nothing of $28M over the last 2 yrs., he's only due $7.5M this coming season.  I think he sticks around for 1 more yr. Because the $2M cap savings isn't enough to justify cutting him.

I think most of your stuff is correct except Brown. I think they extend him one year, cutting his 2021 cap hit from $9M to about $4M-$5M, and cut him after this year if he doesn’t return to form for a small cap penalty ($1M-$2M). 

He said he didn’t want to call Davis a #2, and Brown would be insurance for that. 

[Blank Stare]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do you think you'll find a ready-for-prime-time sure thing pass rusher, AND rebuild the DL, in the draft?

 

People like to criticize Beane's drafts for producing "OK" players instead of difference makers, but keep in mind that overall, the success rate in the first 3 rounds of the draft to even produce solid, contributing players is about 30% - higher in the first round, maybe 50%, lower in the third, maybe 20%.  (I promise if I picked an objective criteria that includes 40% overall you would look at it and say HE'S included? and HIM?  and HIM?).  There are all kinds of reasons for that - injuries, loss of motivation once paid, skills that didn't really translate to the NFL as projected.

 

It is not a realistic plan to expect to maintain a good defense whilst cutting or letting 4 starters walk and rebuilding in the draft and with low priced FA.

Good Q. I’m not one that focuses too much on criticizing Beane’s drafts. I think he’s done a nice job overall, but there’s no question we need to find a few more impact guys from the collegiate ranks. All of this is a lot easier once you have a franchise QB in place. We do, so you can take a few more gambles on players (healthy, questionable character but elite physical ability, etc.). 
 

With respect to your Q on the Dline, I do think they can replace all those guys in one offseason. Maybe that’s ambitious, but that’s just me. Reason being - I don’t think we’d be replacing 4 starters. If we needed the space for Milano, I’d cut Addison, Butler, and Jefferson (although I wouldn’t hate keeping Jefferson if they could). All 3 combined are less valuable to me than Milano. Addison is the only starter from that group. I’d replace him through the draft with either a first or second round pick and look for some growth out of Epenesa. Butler and Jefferson I’d replace with either lesser deals if they want to restructure, the draft, or reasonable to low cost FA. I’d also circle back around in the middle part of the draft to grab another developmental pass rusher or DT. In that scenario, starting Dline would include:

 

Hughes, Oliver, Star, Epenesa/1st or 2nd rd Rookie Pass Rusher

 

Backups: Johnson, Horrible Harry, FA, Rookie Mid-Round Pick, Zimmer, Mike Love. 
 

If we need to cut one of Star or Hughes this year to make it work, it becomes a bit more tricky, but doable. I think there’s probably a way to do it where you structure Milano’s deal to ramp up after 2021 season when we can keep Hughes and Star another year until we move on in 2022. 
 

In that scenario, I haven’t even gotten to John Brown or Mitch Morse yet where we may need to do something with them to free up money for FAs, Feliciano, Daryl Williams, or Josh’s deal. 

[ColoradoBills]

17 minutes ago, Estro said:

After listening to Beane, my between the line thoughts were as follows:

 

FA's

 

1- Jon Feliciano - They want him back and they'll probably be able to get him back because he's not a break the bank type of FA.

 

2- Matt Milano - I think they really want him back, but they know he's going to be looking for more than what they want to spend.  Beane brought up his availability as a problem, and used the word "good" player on a couple of occasions......I think Beane was posturing a bit, they want him for $11.5-$12M a yr....he probably wants $14-15M.  Can he get it on the open market? In a normal FA yr. I think he could, hut there won't be the same money out there this year.  Thus one really seems like a 50/50 proposition, but I do believe the Bills want him back more than they are publicly willing to admit.  Likely a 3rd round compensatory pick if he leaves.

 

3- Daryl Williams- Got the feeling the Bills won't be buying high on Williams.  They git a great yr out of him, but Beane didn't sound like a guy that wanted to bet on Williams long term.  I think they'd have him back on a team friendly deal, but I think there will be other teams willing to go where the Bills won't be.  Possible 4th/5th compensatory pick in next yrs draft if he leaves.

 

4- Matt Barkley - Beane was very complimentary and thankful toward Barkley and his wife.  Had the sound of a good bye to me.  Pretty sure he won't receive an offer from the Bills unless it's vet min. & I don't think Barkley would play for that.

 

Possible cuts:

 

John Brown - I think hes gone

 

Lee Smith - Gone 

 

V. Butler/Q. Jefferson/M. Addison - I think 1 of these guys is definitely cut, 2 is possible and it wouldn't shock me if all 3 are let go.  Beane admitted that if they knew what the cap was going to be this coming yr. They wouldn't have signed all the DL they did.  That to me is an admission that 1 or 2 of them will have to go.  I'd say Vernon Butler is the most likely to be cut as his game is most similar to Stars (assuming he comes back, which maybe he wont).  I would put Addison as the next most likely l, considering his age (34) and a very so so yr in '20

 

Mitch Morse - This one is tricky.  Cutting him saves them only $2ish M in cap space, but doing so basically admits this was a big whiff of a signing.  They've paid him nothing of $28M over the last 2 yrs., he's only due $7.5M this coming season.  I think he sticks around for 1 more yr. Because the $2M cap savings isn't enough to justify cutting him.

 

I totally agree with all your point Estro but I will correct the Morse numbers.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/mitch-morse-16773/

Spotrac has his Cap Savings this year of $4.8M.

Also IF the Bills trade/cut someone like Morse they can designate one player for a post June 1st cut moving some

of that cap into next year.  If they did that with Morse the cap savings would be $7.6M this year.

Beane is only going to do this if he has to IMO.

[krf139]

All GMs kind of use the same lingo, but I do appreciate the candor Beane projects when he speaks. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, TPS said:

Matekevich isn’t going anywhere.  If anything, they will restructure or extend him.  They value STs, and he was Farwell’s #1 ask last year. 

 

Not only that, but Matekevich played 1/4 against Denver and 1/2 against Miami and looked pretty good.  Now I grant that by that time, both those teams were fairly disheartened but 6 tackles and 2 PD in a half ain't shabby.

 

He had a fairly slow 40 time, but he seems to play faster than that to my eye. 

 

It's a little bit hard to tell, and of course Dodson a lot of time on IR with a hamstring injury, but Matekevich may have overtaken him on the depth chart.  At least, Matakevich and Smith were the guys who played when the starters were pulled in Miami while Dodson seems to have backfilled on ST.