Buffalo Bills Offseason Primer. State of the Bills.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Boettger, Bojorquez and Wallace are all RFA so would sign them cheap.

 

Of the unrestricted, I'd try to resign: Feliciano, Williams, Milano, McKenzie, & Jones.  Some like McKenzie, and Jones won't break the bank, some of the others will.

 

The Bills spent a fair amount of $$ and effort to improve ST, can't see them letting Jones and Roberts both walk, maybe Roberts prices himself out and goes, but not both.

 

I'd also let Morse, Brown, Butler all walk, maybe Addison too if could sign a more high impact edge rusher.  Then redo the contracts of Hyde, Smith, and Matakevich to lower cap hit.  Likely a couple others the team will also redo to lower cap.

 

With Kroft a FA if they also let Smith go, they will need to find a backup TE who can also block well as you do want that big blocking TE on the roster, even if used sparingly.  Maybe the team feels they've seen enough from Sweeney to be the backup TE, then keep Smith as the blocker.  If not then maybe try and find another Kroft like guy for less money, but the less money part might be too hard to do, so maybe they keep Smith.

[The Frankish Reich]

6 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Appreciate it.  I know some of the position group discussions as I actually lay our what I would do with each can get kind of heated (have in the past anyway) because I tend not to play nostalgia of players living on the past makes teams IMO make some bad decisions when it comes to declining assets.  NE has mastered this, always tend to move on from a player maybe a year to early, where as the Bills in the past seem to move on from them years to late.  I think there are older tradable assets that can be moved and will talk that in the individual groups, because I then list the replacement plans.

I think that's right. It's the old Branch Rickey baseball line: better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late. I sense that Beane/McD aren't of that nostalgic mindset and will be willing to make the tough calls here. One reason why: McD certainly showed no interest in sticking with a high paid player when he was outcompeted by a lower paid player or rookie. See Trent Murphy, Tyler Kroft.

[nato7412]

16 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Any Specific Position group anyone would like me to start with?  Pretty slow day today in the defense contracting world and might just knock another out.

Gotta be DL imo. Needs the most work for sure. Thanks so much for doing this its awesome!

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, nato7412 said:

Gotta be DL imo. Needs the most work for sure. Thanks so much for doing this its awesome!

Ok will work on DL today.  Should have something today unless work gets in the way. 

[BillsFanSD]

Great write-up.  I didn't realize Milano's projected price was so high -- I like the guy, but I agree that he's a hard pass at nearly $14M.  

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

All as we are not in the offseason.  I will continue my offseason primers for the position groups.  But before I start those I wanted to write on on the State of the Franchise kind of just setting the ton big picture before getting into each of the position group breakdowns.  As you can see I wrote this with the mindset of the unknown of the cap so it is really big picture on were money can be saved and an initial thinking on the UFAs.  So it is a bit long, But hope you enjoy, will look at all suggestions before I get into my in depth position Group Primers down the line. (Likely starting next month).

 

Projected Cap Space:  2,649,343 (based on a 175M cap number, cap floor already agreed to)

Players Under Contract: 41

 

As you can see by above Bills will have to be very smart this offseason on Money.  There are some places to gain cap space, while not adding a hole, and then of course the cuts.  But I will start with the UFAs on how I feel about each.

 

Possible Restructures:

Stefon Diggs: - 12.25M  cap – 11M of base is guaranteed, making a simple restructure easy convert that 11M base into a signing bonus and allocate over the next 3 years.  Will save about 7M next year on cap just doing that without changing anything else.  There could be more gained with a restructure and adding years and money.  Why Diggs would do this, he doesn’t have any guarantees money in 22-24, so Can dangle the 2022 salary being fully guaranteed to get his number lower in 2021 (similar to the post trade restructure guaranteeing 2021 salary.

 

There are others that can kick the can down the road by converting base salary to bonus like Dawkins and Tre, but I would rather not do that this offseason if at all possible.

 

UFAs:

Trent Murphy, 31 DE – Murphy will walk.  I do not see Buffalo bring a guy back that was a healthy scratch most of the season and activated based on specific matchups.  That you can do with someone on a small deal or rookie contract not someone in the 7M range.  Additionally, you are going to see a theme to become less specialized this offseason and moving on from one trick pony type players.  I understand the DL Rotation we employ but you cannot even be in the rotation when you are scratched.  Darryl Johnson has taken his spot in the rotation, and that is your replacement for the back roster DE rotation. 

 

Tyler Kroft, 29 TE – Kroft See above.  When you are a healthy scratch most of the season while carrying a 6M+ Cap number you will not be re-singed in the offseason.  With Knox coming on late in the season Kroft will walk.  TE grouping needs an overhaul and it starts here with letting Kroft walk.

 

John Norman, 34 CB – Too old, too slow to expensive.  Bills took a 6M swing here and missed.  They need to get at least ONE man CB, likely many, I am fine with Tre White (more Zone than Man guy) But that will work if you have a man guy on the other end.  Chiefs exposed our secondary (not all on Secondary the DL shares a lot of blame here, when you are not getting pressure ANY WR can find a hole in a Zone based defense).  Just another old expensive player that brings no value.

 

Ty Nsekhe, 36 OT – Too old, time to move on and fill a swing tackle position with the young players Nothing bad on Ty other than this is an age and cap squeeze move.

 

Jon Feliciano, 29 OG – Now this is the first one I have had to think about a lot.  He seems like he likes it in Buffalo and loves Allen and the rest of the team, so that might help with the offseason stuff.  I think a 3-year 5M AAV contract will be enough to keep him.  Probably our best Run Blocking OL.  Now here comes the hard part.  With Cody Ford coming back, Bates still on roster, Ike Boettger likely back on at least a RFA deal, there can be an argument to save that cap space and move on.  I think anything more than 5M AAV and I am moving on.  That is right about where his value should be.

 

Brian Winters, 30 OG – Depth OG, cannot pay 3M+ on a depth OG specially in a depressed Cap year.  His role needs to be filled by the youth on the team and spent this entire year on the PS. 

 

Andre Roberts, 33 ST – Offers Nothing as a WR, strictly a return man, I could see him back on a Veteran Minimum contract, but I think someone with a lot of space is going to overpay his return skills.  If I had to choose and I think the Bills will have to choose I take McKenzie over Roberts at this point.  McKenzie has juice returning and adds to the offense, so I think I let Roberts walk.

 

Daryl Williams, 29 OT – Here is another hard one, I think I would like him back at about 5-7M AAV, but I also think he will get more than that on the open market.  Unlike Norman coming to Buffalo to revitalize and get that last multiyear contract worked for Williams. I am good with Williams coming back at the number that I previously mentioned; However, I think I prefer to go with youth here at this point and I think we have some on the roster and can address in the draft.  But I am good ither way with him being resigned or let walk.

 

Matt Barkley, 31 QB – Time to go Matt, this is Josh’s team and time to end the vet in the room, that is Josh.  BU will be the winner of Fromm and Webb.

 

Taiwan Jones 33, ST – Not much else to say here than good luck on your next stop, there just is not a need for him anymore.

 

T.J. Yeldon, 28 RB – No Value here moving on.

 

Dean Marlowe 29 SS – Veteran SS/LB/NB I think they would like him back and I do not think there is going to be a major cap increase from his 1.5M to bring him back either.  

 

Isaiah McKenzie, 26 WR – McKenzie is a player I do re-sign.  He can play the Andre Roberts role returning on ST.  Offers a skill set at WR that we do not have with the open field quickness.  Went away from his packages in the playoffs and I think you saw the offense struggle because of that.  I think a 4-year deal with 2-3M AAV will be enough to keep him here. IMO this will be once of the first players re-signed this offseason.

 

Levi Wallace – RFA, 26 CB – Original Round Tender and will be back, though I really think it is time for him to claim the CB2 or move on, either way provides cheap depth in DB if he cannot secure the starting job. 

 

Andre Smith – RFA, 24 ST/LB – Original Round Tender, will likely come back is a ST ace and could help with freeing up some money with the cuts.  Bills will have to free money hopefully the cap is higher than the current projected floor.

 

Del’Shawn Phillips, 25 LB – I do not think there is nothing here will be nothing more than the Veteran Minimum, guess could come back on that cheap deal until camp and then cut but I just don’t see anything here and able to move on.

 

Matt Milano (Spotrac Market Value – 13.8M AAV), 26 LB – At 13.8M AAV the decision is easy, move on.  I even debate 8-10M and think Bills should move on from anything over 9M.  Yes, he makes splash plays, but also plays the easiest LBer position on the field at the Will.  I do think the Bills would love to keep him.  I just think he is going to outprice what his value is, and this is when good GMs stick to their value.  I put Milanos at 6-9M a yar and that is why I am moving on if that price passes 9.  These are those decisions that must be made.  I am not paying 13M to a Will LBer.  This is going to be the interesting one to watch this offseason on where the Bills go.  I do think his production at Will can be replaced cheaper.  Maybe is INJ history allows Bills to get him more in his true value of below 9M a year. 

 

Corey Bojorquez – RFA, 25, P – Part of me says if you do the long-term deal not, in 2 years that contract to production will be one of the better on the team.  Something like 5 years with a 1.75M AAV and w are good.  Not the other part of me says just go original round tender this year and make sure the consistency is not just a one-year thing, and he does not revert, but at end of day is a punter so 1.75M on a long-term deal does not hurt this team at all, instead provides that stability will on a team Friendly deal. 

 

Ike Boettger – RFA, 27 OG – I think he solidified a spot on this team as a swing OG and maybe the replacement to Feliciano (there is something you can do with Felicano if re-signed that I will talk later).  I do think you can easily get him under contract for 3 years 9M, so about a 3M AAV, that is a good price for the swing OG, and a real good contract if he takes a starting OG spot.  Other option here is obviously the RFA Tender, I think the 2nd round tender is what would be given to him, that should keep him in Buffalo but if someone signs over that tender, I think the Bills would then have a decision is the 2nd round pick more valuable than Ike, I think they would answer that yes, especially once Allen gets paid, Drafting is going to become more vital than already is.

 

Cut/Trade Candidates:

 

John Brown, 31 yrs – Savings 7.9M – I have a feeling I may be in the minority here, but John Brown IMO played his last down as a Bill.  The age, INJ History and Cap number all are against him.  He could be a contract redo, with adding a year, lowering total number and cap hits (ala Star) essentially a paycut.  But with the Diggs trade, Davis performing well in his absence as a rookie, and then Hodgins coming off Red Shirt year I think Brown is the WR that could move on.  I do not think he gets outright cut, instead I think that there is value with him, and he could be traded.  Look at a Team like JAX, going to get a Rookie QB, would they not toss over a 3rd for Brown to get with Lawrence for a year, he will be their best WR the minute he steps on the field down there.  He has a 500K bonus due the 5th day of the new league year.  But even that number is not prohibitive if they pick it up then trade him closer to the draft.  His contract was set up for this decision point. 

 

Lee Smith, 34 – Savings 2.25M – Little torn on this one, played well this year, when called on, seemed to stop the Lee Smith Penalties every game.  So, keeping him for another year at 2.25M is fine with me, though this position needs upgraded, and In a tight cap years every savings will count, I do think we can get the same production as Smith offers at a cheaper number.

 

Mitch Morse, 29 – Savings 4.8M – Now this gets into the Feliciano discussion, could use the cap saving this year and re-sign Feliciano I think at around 5M, then you have Feliciano at Center.  This one is hard for me because he is good but did get another concussion on what looked like a real mundane play.  Either way the Bills Do have to start planning for life after Mitch Morse, and I think that could start this year.  I don’t think I move on from him this year UNLESS they absolutely need the space.

 

Mario Addison, 34 – Savings 6.1M – I think this is a paycut candidate, and if he doesn’t accept he will be cut.  I did not see enough justification to bring him back at a 10M cap hit.  His contract was structured with the Out after this season and I think the Bills take it, instead of repeating their same mistake that they made with Tent Murphy.

 

Jerry Hughes, 33 – Savings 7.3M – To be honest I think there will be trade value here as well, but I put Jerry in this list for one reason and one reason only the cap savings, age, and production.  Jerry could easily be up in the restructure area too, lowering his cap number and adding voidable years.  But I do think there needs to be a long discussion on Jerry, but if the Bills cut Addison and some of the other bloated contracts on the DL, Hughes could likely say, his production has been good enough to justify next year’s cap number.

 

Quinton Jefferson, 28 – Savings 6.5M – While a good player and still relatively young, can his production be replaced at a smaller cap number (specially with Star coming back maybe, reason I say that is does he want to play again after being off a year, there will not be any savings cutting Star so he is on the team if he wants to play).  I think the decision here must be between Butler, Jefferson, and Star.  Jefferson will bring some trade value too; however, it is unlikely he is cut this offseason and instead will play on his 8M cap hit final year.

 

Vernon Butler, 27 – Savings 6.8M – Just by looking at the savings number it is the same with Jefferson.  I also think there is some trade value here as well, DL is going to be heavy on this list because I think that was the biggest issue with the defense all year was the DL.  So there needs to be those discussions, with the 4 listed the savings would be 26.7M in space, and so the question is can the production of this DL be replicated or improved with that space? I think it can.)

 

AJ Klein, 30 – Savings 2.4M – Came on near the end of the year one he found his role in the defense.  However, I am not sure that role will justify the 6.4M cap hit next year, IMO he could get cut to free some money for Milano if they want to re-sign Milano.  I this this screams an after draft cut if anything, next year is the Real out though so likely could say this coming year.

 

Tyler Matakevich, 29 – Savings 3.5M – Another I think will stick around, his 3.7M cap hit isn’t bad, provides OK depth, and also really good on ST.  But again, in a tight cap year I wanted to show all the areas to free space.

 

Jordan Poyer, 29 – Savings 5.875 – I don’t think he gets cut or traded (more likely as there is value there), However the way the contract is structured is with that decision in mind.  On the 5th day of the new league here 4.775M of his salary becomes Fully Guaranteed.  So, there will be a discussion and a decision on what to do with him, they made the contract in such a way to do that.  I am not sure Johnson is ready to take this role, so I don’t see Poyer going anywhere next year.

 

Micah Hyde, 31 – Savings 6.1M – I think Hyde’s play slipped this year, I don’t think he was a good this year as in past years.  This could be a surprise move via cut or trade, mor likely might work an extension to lower his number.  There is 500K due on the leagues 5th day, but I don’t think that stops them from doing anything if they want to move on from Hyde.  But there is a decision on these two safeties that must happen soon with them.  I could see a Hyde extension like Poyer adding years and lowering the cap hit.

 

Draft Pick Decisions:

 

Tremaine Edmunds – I am not sure I am extending him at this point.  I do think you pick up the 5th year option for 2022.  Then let him play this year to see if he earns that long term extension.  I think he has done enough (I know there are many that don’t like him) To have his 5th year option picked up and go from there.

 

Josh Allen – To me this is a no brainer, pay him.  I think you pick his 5th year option up at the deadline (if you have to) but this is the No one move I think that needs to happen early in the Offseason.  Give him that Long Term contract extension and set the cap hits in the future years so Beane knows what he has to play with.  I don’t think you wait here, I think this is the FIRST contract you get done so you know the status of your cap in the out years.

 

I think unless there is a run on 1-tech NTs in the draft we can pick up a rookie or two who could hold their ground and play the interior (1 high probability player earlier and a few UFAs).

 

Not sure I bring back Star, Butler, or Jefferson.

 

Would go youth movement here. We threw rotations, stunts, extra bodies, and the kitchen sink to fill this role.

 

Too much money invested for not enough gain. Fix this position with some impact ability and a lot of other coverage and d-line issues find relief.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2021 by WideNine

[947]

24 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said:

Would like to use draft picks elsewhere but as important as the safety position is in this D we need to get some young blue chip talent in to groom.  Love our safetys but getting up there and its starting to show slightly as you mentioned.

I think Marlowe would be solid if anything happens to Poyer or Hyde. I don't see this is as a big need if Marlowe is back.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

Looks like the bills might have a lot of new faces on the defensive line again next season

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

Possible Restructures:

Stefon Diggs: - 12.25M  cap – 11M of base is guaranteed, making a simple restructure easy convert that 11M base into a signing bonus and allocate over the next 3 years.  Will save about 7M next year on cap just doing that without changing anything else.  There could be more gained with a restructure and adding years and money.  Why Diggs would do this, he doesn’t have any guarantees money in 22-24, so Can dangle the 2022 salary being fully guaranteed to get his number lower in 2021 (similar to the post trade restructure guaranteeing 2021 salary.

 

I think the likelihood is that they need to consider a pay rise for Diggs if they approach him about his contract. I agree the Bills have some leverage because he has no guarantees beyond 2021 but he just led the NFL in catches and yards and is 16th among receivers in average per year based on his total contract. If you look just at the average for the remaining 3 years of it he comes in 20th. I don't think Stef is going to insist on being the best paid guy in the league, or even a top 5 guy, you can see him at the end last night he wants to win and I think that matters more to him... but if the Bills approach Stef about revising his deal he is going to ask them to put about an extra $6m in the pot over the remaining 3 years to pull him into that top 10 range which his play more than merits. So you put his $11m 2021 base (which guarantees on day 5 of the league year) into roster bonus plus $6m in new money (ie. spreading $17m out over 3 years) it reduces your 2021 saving to about $5.5m but I think it probably is the move you need to make with Diggs. 

 

UFAs:

Trent Murphy, 31 DE – Murphy will walk.  

 

Agreed

 

Tyler Kroft, 29 TE – Kroft will walk. 

 

Agreed

 

John Norman, 34 CB – Too old, too slow to expensive.  Bills took a 6M swing here and missed.  They need to get at least ONE man CB

 

Disagree with the premise that they need a man corner. Tre is plenty good when manned up against everyone not name Tyreek Hill and they are and will remain a zone defense. I also don't think Josh Norman was as bad as the consensus on him this year, but I agree at his age and level of performance he was overpaid and won't be back. 

 

Ty Nsekhe, 36 OT – Too old, time to move on

 

Agreed

 

Jon Feliciano, 29 OG – Now this is the first one I have had to think about a lot.  He seems like he likes it in Buffalo and loves Allen and the rest of the team, so that might help with the offseason stuff.  I think a 3-year 5M AAV contract will be enough to keep him.  Probably our best Run Blocking OL.  Now here comes the hard part.  With Cody Ford coming back, Bates still on roster, Ike Boettger likely back on at least a RFA deal, there can be an argument to save that cap space and move on.  I think anything more than 5M AAV and I am moving on.  That is right about where his value should be.

 

I'm betwixt and between whether I keep Feliciano or Morse. I think one of them has to go. Ask me today with last night fresh in my mind I say Feliciano.

 

Brian Winters, 30 OG – Depth OG, cannot pay 3M+ on a depth OG specially in a depressed Cap year.  His role needs to be filled by the youth on the team 

 

Agreed

 

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

Andre Roberts, 33 ST – Offers Nothing as a WR, strictly a return man, I could see him back on a Veteran Minimum contract, but I think someone with a lot of space is going to overpay his return skills.  If I had to choose and I think the Bills will have to choose I take McKenzie over Roberts at this point.  McKenzie has juice returning and adds to the offense, so I think I let Roberts walk.

 

I was going to say keep until I realised he is 33. Let him walk. 

 

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

Daryl Williams, 29 OT – Here is another hard one, I think I would like him back at about 5-7M AAV, but I also think he will get more than that on the open market.  Unlike Norman coming to Buffalo to revitalize and get that last multiyear contract worked for Williams. I am good with Williams coming back at the number that I previously mentioned; However, I think I prefer to go with youth here at this point and I think we have some on the roster and can address in the draft.  But I am good either way with him being resigned or let walk.

 

I'm bringing Williams back. If I can get him under $10m per year and I can get him to take a 3 year deal that is really a two year deal (ie. easily cuttable in year 3) then he is a must sign for me. He becomes the guy I "give up" when Josh is on the first year of the non rookie deal.

 

Matt Barkley, 31 QB – Time to go Matt, this is Josh’s team and time to end the vet in the room, that is Josh.  BU will be the winner of Fromm and Webb.

 

If he would come back at $1.5m a year I'd keep him. Not sure he gets more than that on the market but if he wants more than that he can walk. He isn't worth his current deal. 

 

Taiwan Jones 33, ST – Not much else to say here than good luck on your next stop, there just is not a need for him anymore.

 

I'd actually offer him a 1 year $1m extension. That is basically what he played on in Houston in 2019. We paid him $1.75m this year. That is too much. He played well as a ST gunner. 

 

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

 

T.J. Yeldon, 28 RB – No Value here moving on.

 

Agreed

 

Dean Marlowe 29 SS – Veteran SS/LB/NB I think they would like him back and I do not think there is going to be a major cap increase from his 1.5M to bring him back either.  

 

Agreed. He is the only vet backup for Hyde and Poyer and I haven't seen enough Jaquan Johnson to know if we have anything there. That said if the rubber really hits the road elsewhere money wise then I'd let him walk. 

 

Isaiah McKenzie, 26 WR – McKenzie is a player I do re-sign.  He can play the Andre Roberts role returning on ST.  Offers a skill set at WR that we do not have with the open field quickness.  Went away from his packages in the playoffs and I think you saw the offense struggle because of that.  I think a 4-year deal with 2-3M AAV will be enough to keep him here. IMO this will be once of the first players re-signed this offseason.

 

Agreed. I am the biggest McKenzie homer going. He tested the market last year before coming back but then had a career year and that punt return against the Dolphins might well be enough to swing an extension as their gadget guy and primary returner. The more you can do for me the better. 

 

Levi Wallace – RFA, 26 CB – Original Round Tender and will be back, though I really think it is time for him to claim the CB2 or move on, either way provides cheap depth in DB if he cannot secure the starting job. 

 

Agreed

 

Andre Smith – RFA, 24 ST/LB – Original Round Tender, will likely come back is a ST ace and could help with freeing up some money with the cuts.  Bills will have to free money hopefully the cap is higher than the current projected floor.

 

Meh. Couldn't care less. 

 

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

Del’Shawn Phillips, 25 LB – I do not think there is nothing here will be nothing more than the Veteran Minimum, guess could come back on that cheap deal until camp and then cut but I just don’t see anything here and able to move on.

 

People forget he made the original 53 this year over Corey Thompson who had been on the roster for two years and Vosean Joseph who they spent a 5th round pick on. Would be on the vet minimum but I think he is back ad LB depth / ST player. 

 

Matt Milano (Spotrac Market Value – 13.8M AAV), 26 LB – At 13.8M AAV the decision is easy, move on.  I even debate 8-10M and think Bills should move on from anything over 9M.  Yes, he makes splash plays, but also plays the easiest LBer position on the field at the Will.  I do think the Bills would love to keep him.  I just think he is going to outprice what his value is, and this is when good GMs stick to their value.  I put Milanos at 6-9M a yar and that is why I am moving on if that price passes 9.  These are those decisions that must be made.  I am not paying 13M to a Will LBer.  This is going to be the interesting one to watch this offseason on where the Bills go.  I do think his production at Will can be replaced cheaper.  Maybe is INJ history allows Bills to get him more in his true value of below 9M a year. 

 

Love Matt, loved the pick, and he is pretty dreamy 😍 but I agree that if he gets anywhere close to $13m per then the Bills shouldn't go there. Likelihood is he walks.

 

Corey Bojorquez – RFA, 25, P – Part of me says if you do the long-term deal not, in 2 years that contract to production will be one of the better on the team.  Something like 5 years with a 1.75M AAV and w are good.  Not the other part of me says just go original round tender this year and make sure the consistency is not just a one-year thing, and he does not revert, but at end of day is a punter so 1.75M on a long-term deal does not hurt this team at all, instead provides that stability will on a team Friendly deal. 

 

Yea tough one. I'd have cut him the last two years but he had his best year. I'd try and do a deal but more like a 4 year deal that is really a 2 year deal. 

 

Ike Boettger – RFA, 27 OG – I think he solidified a spot on this team as a swing OG and maybe the replacement to Feliciano (there is something you can do with Felicano if re-signed that I will talk later).  I do think you can easily get him under contract for 3 years 9M, so about a 3M AAV, that is a good price for the swing OG, and a real good contract if he takes a starting OG spot.  Other option here is obviously the RFA Tender, I think the 2nd round tender is what would be given to him, that should keep him in Buffalo but if someone signs over that tender, I think the Bills would then have a decision is the 2nd round pick more valuable than Ike, I think they would answer that yes, especially once Allen gets paid, Drafting is going to become more vital than already is.

 

My guy! Been on the Ike train since before it was cool. Absolutely give him the tender. 

 

Cut/Trade Candidates:

 

John Brown, 31 yrs – Savings 7.9M – I have a feeling I may be in the minority here, but John Brown IMO played his last down as a Bill.  The age, INJ History and Cap number all are against him.  He could be a contract redo, with adding a year, lowering total number and cap hits (ala Star) essentially a paycut.  But with the Diggs trade, Davis performing well in his absence as a rookie, and then Hodgins coming off Red Shirt year I think Brown is the WR that could move on.  I do not think he gets outright cut, instead I think that there is value with him, and he could be traded.  Look at a Team like JAX, going to get a Rookie QB, would they not toss over a 3rd for Brown to get with Lawrence for a year, he will be their best WR the minute he steps on the field down there.  He has a 500K bonus due the 5th day of the new league year.  But even that number is not prohibitive if they pick it up then trade him closer to the draft.  His contract was set up for this decision point. 

 

Agreed. I'd like to find a way to come to a reasonable deal of keeping him in Buffalo as you suggest and he is the last cut I'd make.... essentially I only cut Brown if I am really tight to the boards. 

 

Lee Smith, 34 – Savings 2.25M – Little torn on this one, played well this year, when called on, seemed to stop the Lee Smith Penalties every game.  So, keeping him for another year at 2.25M is fine with me, though this position needs upgraded, and In a tight cap years every savings will count, I do think we can get the same production as Smith offers at a cheaper number.

 

If it is true he is retiring then best wishes. Otherwise I think I'd let him play out his final year. They will want a blocking type of tight end IMO so if it isn't Smith they will be giving that money to someone else. 

 

Mitch Morse, 29 – Savings 4.8M – Now this gets into the Feliciano discussion, could use the cap saving this year and re-sign Feliciano I think at around 5M, then you have Feliciano at Center.  This one is hard for me because he is good but did get another concussion on what looked like a real mundane play.  Either way the Bills Do have to start planning for life after Mitch Morse, and I think that could start this year.  I don’t think I move on from him this year UNLESS they absolutely need the space.

 

Depends what you do with Feliciano. I have him walking above so I keep Morse but could easily flip. 

 

Mario Addison, 34 – Savings 6.1M – I think this is a paycut candidate, and if he doesn’t accept he will be cut.  I did not see enough justification to bring him back at a 10M cap hit.  His contract was structured with the Out after this season and I think the Bills take it, instead of repeating their same mistake that they made with Tent Murphy.

 

Cut. Cut. Then cut again. Why we signed a declining player to the exact deal we could have kept Shaq at still confuses me. 

 

Jerry Hughes, 33 – Savings 7.3M – To be honest I think there will be trade value here as well, but I put Jerry in this list for one reason and one reason only the cap savings, age, and production.  Jerry could easily be up in the restructure area too, lowering his cap number and adding voidable years.  But I do think there needs to be a long discussion on Jerry, but if the Bills cut Addison and some of the other bloated contracts on the DL, Hughes could likely say, his production has been good enough to justify next year’s cap number.

 

I hate having a 33 year old starting at D-End but you probably can't cut Jerry and Mario. I don't want this to be all I told you so but I thought the extension they did with Jerry a couple of years back was unnecessary too. Oh well. Jerry had a decent year but he did noticeably wear down as it went on to my eyes at least. They have to be even heavier with the rotation at that spot in 2021. 

 

Quinton Jefferson, 28 – Savings 6.5M – While a good player and still relatively young, can his production be replaced at a smaller cap number (specially with Star coming back maybe, reason I say that is does he want to play again after being off a year, there will not be any savings cutting Star so he is on the team if he wants to play).  I think the decision here must be between Butler, Jefferson, and Star.  Jefferson will bring some trade value too; however, it is unlikely he is cut this offseason and instead will play on his 8M cap hit final year.

 

Cut. I liked this pickup but there is a decision to be made between he and Butler and Vernon has just outplayed him. Been disappointed in Q. 

 

Vernon Butler, 27 – Savings 6.8M – Just by looking at the savings number it is the same with Jefferson.  I also think there is some trade value here as well, DL is going to be heavy on this list because I think that was the biggest issue with the defense all year was the DL.  So there needs to be those discussions, with the 4 listed the savings would be 26.7M in space, and so the question is can the production of this DL be replicated or improved with that space? I think it can.)

 

Keep. Is really a 3 tech who we ended forcing into 1 tech duty this year. He did an admirable job, can play both spots. Keep.

 

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

 

AJ Klein, 30 – Savings 2.4M – Came on near the end of the year one he found his role in the defense.  However, I am not sure that role will justify the 6.4M cap hit next year, IMO he could get cut to free some money for Milano if they want to re-sign Milano.  I this this screams an after draft cut if anything, next year is the Real out though so likely could say this coming year.

 

If they let Milano walk (I think in the end they do) they keep Klein and he starts the year alongside Edmunds while they bring a rookie along. Think the way they used Ramon Humber early in that 2017 season to transition to Milano. 

 

Tyler Matakevich, 29 – Savings 3.5M – Another I think will stick around, his 3.7M cap hit isn’t bad, provides OK depth, and also really good on ST.  But again, in a tight cap year I wanted to show all the areas to free space.

 

Keep. Would only consider cutting if really tight. He'd be my second to last cut before Brown. Our kick and punt coverage units had an excellent year.

 

Jordan Poyer, 29 – Savings 5.875 – I don’t think he gets cut or traded (more likely as there is value there), However the way the contract is structured is with that decision in mind.  On the 5th day of the new league here 4.775M of his salary becomes Fully Guaranteed.  So, there will be a discussion and a decision on what to do with him, they made the contract in such a way to do that.  I am not sure Johnson is ready to take this role, so I don’t see Poyer going anywhere next year.

 

Keep

 

Micah Hyde, 31 – Savings 6.1M – I think Hyde’s play slipped this year, I don’t think he was a good this year as in past years.  This could be a surprise move via cut or trade, mor likely might work an extension to lower his number.  There is 500K due on the leagues 5th day, but I don’t think that stops them from doing anything if they want to move on from Hyde.  But there is a decision on these two safeties that must happen soon with them.  I could see a Hyde extension like Poyer adding years and lowering the cap hit.

 

Keep, let him play his final year out but I would not bring him back in 2022. 

 

Draft Pick Decisions:

 

Tremaine Edmunds – I am not sure I am extending him at this point.  I do think you pick up the 5th year option for 2022.  Then let him play this year to see if he earns that long term extension.  I think he has done enough (I know there are many that don’t like him) To have his 5th year option picked up and go from there.

 

Take 5th year option.

 

Josh Allen – To me this is a no brainer, pay him.  I think you pick his 5th year option up at the deadline (if you have to) but this is the No one move I think that needs to happen early in the Offseason.  Give him that Long Term contract extension and set the cap hits in the future years so Beane knows what he has to play with.  I don’t think you wait here, I think this is the FIRST contract you get done so you know the status of your cap in the out years.

 

Extend Josh. Somewhere between $37-40m AAV. Shouldn't majorly change his 2021 cap hit... you keep that nice and low. 

 

 

Excellent post Maj. Sorry that it quoted funky but my thoughts in red. 

[Tommy]

Great work going through all of this. I think it's a really beneficial exercise to help give fans a realistic perspective, and to understand that you can't just re-sign everyone.

 

One minor point that I disagreed with was the value of John Brown in the trade market. You said yourself that he has age, injury history, and a cap hit that are all against him. I find it extremely unlikely that a team would trade a pick as high as a 3rd rounder for him. I also believe D.J. Chark is definitely a better player going into the 2021-2022 season. You could also argue that Laviska Shenault is going to be better than Brown for the next season as well. I will always like John Brown for his contributions over the past two seasons, but there's no way someone is trading anything significant for him at this point in his career, and with his demonstrated history of not being healthy much of the time.

 

Regardless of my difference of opinion on that one item, nicely done!

 

[MAJBobby]

11 minutes ago, Tommy said:

Great work going through all of this. I think it's a really beneficial exercise to help give fans a realistic perspective, and to understand that you can't just re-sign everyone.

 

One minor point that I disagreed with was the value of John Brown in the trade market. You said yourself that he has age, injury history, and a cap hit that are all against him. I find it extremely unlikely that a team would trade a pick as high as a 3rd rounder for him. I also believe D.J. Chark is definitely a better player going into the 2021-2022 season. You could also argue that Laviska Shenault is going to be better than Brown for the next season as well. I will always like John Brown for his contributions over the past two seasons, but there's no way someone is trading anything significant for him at this point in his career, and with his demonstrated history of not being healthy much of the time.

 

Regardless of my difference of opinion on that one item, nicely done!

 

I somewhat disagree on Brown.  Look at the Trash WRs all over the league.  A team with a New Young QB could really value brown.  this year will be chalked up to Injury, but teams will see how reliable he was to Josh before diggs and that is marketable IMO to one of those type of teams. (granted three of them are within our own division).

[Tommy]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

I somewhat disagree on Brown.  Look at the Trash WRs all over the league.  A team with a New Young QB could really value brown.  this year will be chalked up to Injury, but teams will see how reliable he was to Josh before diggs and that is marketable IMO to one of those type of teams. (granted three of them are within our own division).

 

I think John Brown still has value and can be an asset to a new team. I don't think anyone is trading a 3rd round pick for the right to pick up his contract. I believe Brown will end up being cut by the Bills for the cap savings, and that he will be signed by a new team fairly quickly at a more reasonable contract.

[H2o]

I know all of these FA's have "Market Value" listed for them, but I think we see a different market this year with the cap not getting its usual bump. It has really put many teams in a bind leaving them with some hard decisions to make. I also believe that there will be many qualities players thrust onto the market because of it as well. I think you will see a lot of short term deals this offseason for players who are hoping for some sense of a return to normalcy in the FA market in 2022. I also believe those deals will generally come in lower than their assessed value per tools such as Spotrac. 

[BrooklynBills]

I agree with almost all of your choices. I think some of your numbers are a bit off though which would make some of these decisions a bit easier.

 

Mitch Morse is a cap savings of 7.6 mil if designated a June 1 cut.

 

Addison is a cap savings of 8.2 of designated as a June 1.

 

IMO those are tough but no brainier cuts, especially factoring in age and injury history.

 

Jefferson and Butler both have essentially no dead money if cut and I think they were essentially here as 1 year stop gaps. Outside edge runs were an issue so i don't see how keeping Addison is justified.

 

Milano at that money is not worth it. He was out most of the year and the defense adjusted. He was healthy in the colts game and the KC game and was not a major factor. For comparison, Tyran Matheiu signed for $13 mil avg 2 years ago. You can better spend the money IMO.  The scheme is sound. We need to find defensive players that can elevate above the scheme at times and take over and that will probably mean having to go after some big fish in FA.  You simply can't pay every defender a 2nd contract and I'd have no problem running out Dodson and Edmunds at LB if meant using money to find a difference maker at DT or DE.

Edited January 25, 2021 by BrooklynBills

[Aussie Joe]

Bad timing for Daryl Williams to have his worst game of the year yesterday and he might have cost himself some money...

 

Agree with earlier comments that if you could get him for 3 years max  ( in reality 2 with the third year at the team option)  at $9-10M a year than I would do it

 

I agree that only 1 of Morse  or Feliciano are kept... I could see them drafting a C early this year so  might make sense to keep Morse for 2021 and let him go next season when the new boy is up to speed ..

 

Im going to throw one out of left field and say that you bring Nsekhe back as the swing tackle for $2M ... I know he is 36 but he has had an interesting career and doesn’t have the normal miles that a lineman his age should...he has been dependable when he has sparingly played this year...

 

Im torn on Milano if they can keep him at around $7-9 M a year... The D plays a lot better with him in the lineup, and if he goes then you are likely replacing him with a high pick where there are a number of other holes to fill...

 

 

 

 

[MAJBobby]

44 minutes ago, Tommy said:

 

I think John Brown still has value and can be an asset to a new team. I don't think anyone is trading a 3rd round pick for the right to pick up his contract. I believe Brown will end up being cut by the Bills for the cap savings, and that he will be signed by a new team fairly quickly at a more reasonable contract.

His contract is very tradable, it is not a trade preventable Contract.  And if he has value to a team a 3rd to secure that value is not bad, maybe even a 4th.  They can get something for the asset instead of out right cutting it.

19 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

I agree with almost all of your choices. I think some of your numbers are a bit off though which would make some of these decisions a bit easier.

 

Mitch Morse is a cap savings of 7.6 mil if designated a June 1 cut.

 

Addison is a cap savings of 8.2 of designated as a June 1.

 

IMO those are tough but no brainier cuts, especially factoring in age and injury history.

 

Jefferson and Butler both have essentially no dead money if cut and I think they were essentially here as 1 year stop gaps. Outside edge runs were an issue so i don't see how keeping Addison is justified.

 

Milano at that money is not worth it. He was out most of the year and the defense adjusted. He was healthy in the colts game and the KC game and was not a major factor. For comparison, Tyran Matheiu signed for $13 mil avg 2 years ago. You can better spend the money IMO.  The scheme is sound. We need to find defensive players that can elevate above the scheme at times and take over and that will probably mean having to go after some big fish in FA.  You simply can't pay every defender a 2nd contract and I'd have no problem running out Dodson and Edmunds at LB if meant using money to find a difference maker at DT or DE.

I get the June 1 designation.  I dont like using it when planning, as I would want all the dead money in the year I made the choice instead of spreading it out 2 years, that is my thinking on that, and why I stay away from saying June 1st.

[AmishRifle]

@MAJBobby Agree with the DL being the first position group out of the gate.  Thanks for doing this.  Very much appreciated.

 

 

[BrooklynBills]

5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

His contract is very tradable, it is not a trade preventable Contract.  And if he has value to a team a 3rd to secure that value is not bad, maybe even a 4th.  They can get something for the asset instead of out right cutting it.

I get the June 1 designation.  I dont like using it when planning, as I would want all the dead money in the year I made the choice instead of spreading it out 2 years, that is my thinking on that, and why I stay away from saying June 1st.

 

I get the idea that you don't want to kick any dead money into future years but I think the extra cap savings is a bit justified in these cases based solely on the amount of money they would be saving and how up against the cap the team is currently.  Lots of teams are going to up against the cap this offseason and I anticipate some very good players coming available that otherwise wouldn't and I'm hoping we try to take advantage of that in some way.  Bills are at about 1-2 mil under next years cap currently and get all the way to ~$40 mil under just in reasonable cuts alone and not even taking into consideration what they will save in possible restructures/extensions.  I would absolutely be trying to get Diggs signed to some kind of restructure that adds a few extra years and I would be doing the same on a smaller scale with Beasley.

[Freddie's Dead]

3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Tyler Kroft, 29 TE – Kroft See above.  When you are a healthy scratch most of the season while carrying a 6M+ Cap number you will not be re-singed in the offseason.  

 

Isaiah McKenzie, 26 WR – McKenzie is a player I do re-sign....think a 4-year deal with 2-3M AAV will be enough to keep him here. IMO this will be once of the first players re-signed this offseason.

 

BURN PUFNSTUF, BURN!!!  Never understood why he got benched while Knox kept dropping everything in sight.  If I were him, I'd leave.

 

Agree with just about everything you have except I'm going TeddyKGB and paying McKittrick hyis myoney because all he does is make plays.  I also run way more plays with him next year.  I know he was a little hurt in the playoffs, but he looked damn healthy yesterday and didn't get anywhere near enough touches.  Yes, I am an unabashed McKittrick fanboy.

 

I also agree with you that we need to pay Josh now before the price goes up.  We can probably get him to go for $40-45M/yr now, but in two years that could be much higher.  Sign him to a 7-10 year deal now, and you could save 8-9 figures.

[NewEra]

Thanks for the work.  Well done as always @MAJBobby

 

i agree with the Milano number around 9-10 but he’s going to get a Kwon Alexander contract imo.  He’s likely gone.  Sadly.  He’s a Jack of all trades in this D and he won’t be easily replaced.  If he leaves, who we replace him with will be a very mportant decision 

 

Daryl Williams-  I think his number will be 10-15 mill per year.  He’s still young and had a great season. I hope we can resign him to anything under 12 a year, preferably at the lowest possible price obv.

 

feliciano/Morse-  pick one and have them play center.

 

I’d try and trade Ford (I have given up on him because I don’t think he’s a viable starter in this league, get something if it’s possible) and resign Boettger as depth.  I really would like to add 2 new guards. Not sure how we can afford them.... but make it happen. 
 

mckenzie-  he’s the FA I feel we need to resign.  I agree to let Robert’s go and let Mckenzie take the role of returner and gadget wr.  I hate using the roster spot on a plauer that does nothing but return kicks and punts. 
 

I love john brown....but not at 8 mill a year.  Pay cut or he needs to go. 

The rest, I would:

Cut/let leave:  Addison, Butler (if star is still a viable 1 tech starter), Murphy, Norman, nsekhe, Taiwan (hate the fact that he is ONLY a gunner), Barkley, Yeldon, don’t care about phillips or A smith

Keep: jerry, Wallace, Jefferson (I’d cut him if we wanted to somehow go after a big name pass rusher, but I don’t think it’ll happen) Marlowe, bojo, Klein (2 mill isn’t enough saving).

 

I’d try and resign Hyde to a lower cap#, I wouldn’t want to see him go. He’s still a very good player and works great with Poyer and the corners.  
 

I’d like to add a talented Rb with speed to pair with Moss and cut/trade Singletary 

Edited January 25, 2021 by NewEra