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2020 Season Post Mortem: talent, coaching, or scheme hump we need to get over?


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7 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

I look at impact here. Was tre as good as the previous two seasons? Absolutely not.

 

Was that him? His teammates?

 

I don't know, but I know he wasn't near the player that earned that contract.

I focused on him a lot last night intentionally. He was bad. I don’t know if it’s just the strange season with COVID but he wasn’t good this year. 

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I'd love to see someone knowledgeable actually break this game down. It sure felt in the moment like we were conservative to a fault, especially on D. You can't play soft zone all game against those guys and just let them do what they want. Hill and Kelce are too good for that. 

 

On offense I thought Josh had a bad game. He wasn't very good vs. Ravens either. Our offense is very heliocentric. As good as Josh is that's one area we might want to look at so we're not so reliant on one player. 

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11 hours ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

TL;DR - To be legit threats to KC in the AFC we need to coach more decisively and to win. Not be as stubborn in their ways when things are going wrong and put our players in a position to win. We also need personnel help in various spots and continued development from JA. 

I agree, but to be fair we’ve been one, if not the most aggressive team all year. They’ve been better at naming some fairly significant halftime adjustments since week roughly week 6. 
 

I’m not entirely sure why there was a breakdown yesterday and we went back on some of the things that set us apart this year. 
 

It seemed like the moment was a little too big. 

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To me, you aren’t beating the Chiefs at their own game. That’s going to be unpopular, it’s going to be something that I get almost no support in saying but I believe it.
 

They are better then us. The Chiefs Qb is trending towards being one of the 3 best QBs in NFL history. Their Head Coach is one of the most creative minds in league history. They have a TE that is pre injury Gronk level. Hill is so fast, he’s impossible to cover. We aren’t the chiefs. We are never going to be them and that’s ok. You don’t have to be the chiefs to beat them but if you want to get in a back and fourth shootout with them...99/100 you are going to lose. 
 

The Bills need to create an identity which presents a different challenge to the Chiefs. Allen is excellent and he does things that even Mahomes can’t do. No matter how good of a passer Allen is, he’s not going to out duel Mahomes. The Bills need to Create an identity that allows them to maximize their own strengths. I believe this team needs to mix in a power run game to go along with their passing offense. Balance can be a difference maker. Keeping a team guessing and presenting them with several different attacks options, will only strengthen our ability to score. We scored a ton of points this year, so people are going to be against this. But in the post season our offense was exposed a little. We need the treat of the run to take some of the pressure off Josh and Diggs. Create an offense around Joshs unique ability. We are not going to out pass the Chiefs. 

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7 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

I find it amazing how people keep repeating that we pay Milano whatever,  i don't see some elite LB .  He is good but not great,  8-10 million range over 3-4 seasons is fair for what he brings.  Beane has to be careful with any defensive signings,  we won because of offence and our defence was trash most of the year.  Last thing you need is a bunch of overpaid average players on defence and get stuck in salary cap jail.  The DE was overpaid and did nothing exciting most of the year

 

Honest question:

 

Who are the Elite difference making LBs in the NFL nowadays?

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2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Honest question:

 

Who are the Elite difference making LBs in the NFL nowadays?

How about you answer how much would you pay Milano? If he were that great 31 YEAR old Kelce would not have been running all of the field uncovered yesterday.  Someone said he was great last week and i said talk with me after the Chiefs game,  he is solid/good LB but not great or elite

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5 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Kelce is a match up nightmare, I wasn't necessarily talking about Edmunds last night. I just find myself wanting more out of him this year and with a hefty option coming up, I'm a bit down on him. IIRC, when we drafted him he was supposed to be our Gronk equalizer. I know he is only 22 and an athletic freak in terms of size/speed. I know he was dinged up this year as well, but I just feel like we aren't getting enough out of that position. It could be the scheme though...

Kelce is Gronk all over again with a little more speed.

1 minute ago, Niagara Dude said:

How about you answer how much would you pay Milano? If he were that great 31 YEAR old Kelce would not have been running all of the field uncovered yesterday.  Someone said he was great last week and i said talk with me after the Chiefs game,  he is solid/good LB but not great or elite

Milano isn't worth a big contract. He's good not great. In fact most of our front 7 isn't that great. Hughes might be best player but he might best be suited as a 3rd down specialist at this time of his career.

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As NE was for so many years, KC is now the target. To level the playing field, the Bills need a further infusion of talent--- RB, TE, D-Line, DB. A healthy dose of more speed needs to be added to the equation. It is going to take work.

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6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I think people are overreacting. Simply put, the Chiefs are by far and away the worst matchup in the league for the Bills on both sides of the ball. The Bills play zone, and it often works very well. Against a zone shredder like Kelce—one of the best tight ends who has ever played—they are always going to look bad. Frankly, regardless of the score, the Chiefs totally dominated in Buffalo earlier this year. This game wasn’t really that much different.

 

It's not really overreacting if the Chiefs are the team we need to get past to get to the Super Bowl and you're basically saying they're always going to dominate us.

 

So how do we get by them, then?  What's the answer?  You're saying it's a coaching and scheme thing?

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35 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Strangely I don't really feel overly emotional or hugely disappointed.

 

Just hungry.

 

I want to get back to next season because this past season we took another step and honestly we're getting to the "Super Bowl WIN or bust" stage moving forward.  Kansas City is just clearly the better team this year... I would like to know why and how we get better.  I don't think it's too much that needs to be done, but definitely some critical things.

Its not the ONLY thing.....but I think the main thing is we cant be getting our ass kicked at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball......a OL and a DL are needed

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6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I’m not sure why people think this is Frazier’s defense. It’s McDermott’s through and through. Yes, Frazier calls the plays, but it’s a matchup zone D and not really the Tampa 2 that Frazier ran before Buffalo. The Bills need a Chris Jones and a Frank Clark. They are line wreckers, and the Bills don’t have those guys. Ed Oliver was supposed to be, but he’s not.

It's definitely McD's Defense, but Frazier has been basically a puppet. Frazier's background in the Tampa-2 is about the only thing more antiquated than McD's. I'd like a new D Coordinator to come in with fresh ideas, not just be a yes man, & get McD to reconsider his old "bend but don't break" ways. Frazier offers nothing, aside from being well-liked.

 

Add in the two 3rd rounders we'd get if Frazier leaves, and I'll help him pack.

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6 hours ago, Magox said:

The turning point of the game was when the Bills were up 9-7 and it was 2nd and 7 right past midfield on their side of the field and Singletary dropped the pass that would have definitely gotten them the first down and at least to the 40.  That was a huge drop.

 

The most infuriating play of the game was the Chiefs first possession of the second half and it was a 3rd and 5.  A stop here and the Bills could change the momentum.  The Bills decided to play Hill with a 10 yard cushion and it was the easiest 3rd down conversion you'll ever see.  All Hill had to do was run 6 yard and turn around.   I can live with us playing aggressively and blitzing and they converting against that.  But just giving them the first down on such a crucial play was mind boggling.

 

Again, I'm very thankful and happy with how the season went but that game was the worst coaching performance from McD/Daboll/Frazier that they had all year long.

 

The Singletary drop was big.  Diggs had a drop at one point, too.

 

But the Chiefs had a couple drops, too.  

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35 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It's not really overreacting if the Chiefs are the team we need to get past to get to the Super Bowl and you're basically saying they're always going to dominate us.

 

So how do we get by them, then?  What's the answer?  You're saying it's a coaching and scheme thing?

I think they need some better players, frankly. Teams like Denver and San Diego -- pretty bad teams -- can keep them at bay to an extent, and that's because they have d-linemen (Bosa, Ingram, for instance, created huge problems for KC in their first game this season) who can wreck plays. The Bills don't have those guys, and simply can't get to Mahomes with a 4-man rush. The Bills make up for it with disciplined zone play in coverage, but that's been proven to be useless against KC. Mahomes and Kelce just pick it apart. Look, you're never going to have elite players at every position, but you gotta have more than what the Bills have in terms of their pass rush. It's too bad about Ed Oliver. He's a decent player, but he's not a difference maker (3 sacks, 6 pressures, 23 tackles in 2020). They spent a high pick on him and the returns aren't impressive so far. 

 

As for schemes, I do think it's probably an issue, at least with regard to KC. Belichick frequently gives KC's offense fits, including the game this year with the corpse of Brian Hoyer playing QB. The Bills' looks and schemes -- which were pretty vanilla in both games this year -- clearly don't present any issues for Mahomes. I think the only way to deal with this issue is to get get 1-2 game wreckers on the line. I was in support of getting Carlos Dunlop, who ended up playing extremely well for Seattle. I think you've gotta take a chance on a guy like that -- someone who is clearly more talented than the Mario Addisons of the world. I know Clowney didn't do much this season, but he's still ultra-talented and was incredibly disruptive for Seattle in 2019 despite the low sack total.  

 

My sense is that this is a pretty weak d-line draft, but I don't know for sure. Others will know better than me.  

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The Singletary drop was big.  Diggs had a drop at one point, too.

 

But the Chiefs had a couple drops, too.  

Yeah, there are drops every game. Brady suffered through drops yesterday. The ones you hate are the ones like Singletary's -- low velocity lobs to a guy in open space. Diggs and Brown dropped bullets as they were getting hammered. I forgive those ones. It's impossible to catch balls at a 100 percent rate in those situations.

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5 hours ago, Nitro said:

I concur.  The GB vs TB game was truly a boring one.  I felt all along the AFC was superior to the NFC in their top teams.   Good analysis

 

This is what sucks.  

 

KC is the best team in the NFL right now. I would have felt more confident winning the Super Bowl against absolutely any team in the NFC.

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9 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

I look at impact here. Was tre as good as the previous two seasons? Absolutely not.

 

Was that him? His teammates?

 

I don't know, but I know he wasn't near the player that earned that contract.

Tre is a baller, the real problem is our lack of pass rush, qb's and wr's have had too much time this year, losing shaq and phillips really cost our defense 

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I see a lot of people saying Josh was bad yesterday and turned into "Sugar High Josh," but every time they were showing our WRs they were just blanketed with coverage.

 

What was Josh supposed to do?  To me, if anything he should've started scrambling earlier and more since our WRs weren't bailing him out and our OL wasn't doing a great job.  Yes, he took bad sacks and lost too much yardage, but I didn't think that was "Sugar High Josh..." it was him realizing that he had to carry the team on his shoulders yesterday for the team to have any shot.

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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I completely agree.

 

So what's the answer?

 

I think the answer is that they have to do a complete post mortem of those games that includes a thorough examination of their defensive and offensive philosophy and decide what schemes and systems they have to implement with the focus on how to beat that Chiefs team.  And from there evaluate the personnel and see what kind of players they need for each of those schemes to defeat that team.

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I believe you must try to defeat the Chiefs by presenting a similar offensive challenge. Mahomes gets the benefit of wide open receivers most of the time due to the way teams play coverage vs their personnel. Josh did not get that last night and the results were apparent. While the Bills need better rushers to apply pressure with 4, most of the answers are on Offense. An elite TE and a blazing WR are needed. The Chiefs are harder to defend than anyone else due to Kielce and Hill. This is easier said than done, but trying to win largely with defense in today’s NFL is mostly folly. The Bills needed a better defensive strategy yesterday ( the Falcons and Raiders did a much better job) combined with TDs not FGs. 

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