Rewatched Divisional Matchup: One Bills coach did well, One Bills coach not at his best

[BornAgainBillsFan]

13 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

That is actually a very good observation - Klein was barely in vs. the Colts but was featured prominently vs. the Ravens. This was just the Bills moving from an exclusively 4-2-5 (with Taron Johnson) vs the Colts to an alternating 4-2-5 / 4-3  deployment vs. the Ravens. So Taron was the hero in the game despite seeing a lot fewer snaps overall!!! That deployment was unexpected since even against good running teams the Bills had preferred Taron Johnson in there instead of the third LB.

 

At this point, I think Milano and Klein can really play SAM and WILL equally well.

 

Thanks! I hope they play a lot of the 4-3 against KC (especially since they gashed us on the ground in Week 6!), because the all 3 LBs are playing great right now.

 

Go Bills!

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

That is actually a very good observation - Klein was barely in vs. the Colts but was featured prominently vs. the Ravens. This was just the Bills moving from an exclusively 4-2-5 (with Taron Johnson) vs the Colts to an alternating 4-2-5 / 4-3  deployment vs. the Ravens. So Taron was the hero in the game despite seeing a lot fewer snaps overall!!! That deployment was unexpected since even against good running teams the Bills had preferred Taron Johnson in there instead of the third LB.

 

At this point, I think Milano and Klein can really play SAM and WILL equally well.

 

Klein was used a lot on matchups with TEs.  To see why they switched back and forth look at Ravens lineup and try to figure out what Leslie Frazier saw.

 

Klein also made 2 plays where he was on opposite side of field from play and while other players tried to keep player bottled up he came across field and made tackle. 

I have never seen him run that fast.

[BobbyC81]

4 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Rewatched the entire game on slow mo. Here are the  thoughts from that re-watch

 

Both DCs had completely new game plans  for this game and neither OC could really cope.

 

Bills on Offense

 

Wink Martindale set up Daboll by stating prior to the game that "we are who we are". I dont think a single observer (including yours truly) expected the Ravens from being anything but aggressive with blitzes. Daboll knows blitzing leaves Diggs against the secondary one on one and gave Allen the green light. On the few occasions (<20%) of the time the Ravens Blitzed, Allen was almost perfect with his short and intermediate throws. That shows the Bills were prepared for the Ravens' blitz. But Wink Martindale cunningly played McD type defenses and sold out to the secondary stopping the Bills WRs and daring the Bills to run. Dabs C'mon man - I cant think of single coach who will eschew the run and keep throwing when the defense doubles down in the secondary. Havent you heard of keeping defenses honest? Reminded me of Tin Cup and Kevin Costner keeping on trying the same shot and landing in the water -  it may have been heroic in the movie - but here it was kinda stupid. The first half snooze fest on offense was just Dabs being stubborn. Martindale took another leaf out of McD defense playbook by showing blitz and one-one-one but having the safety in delayed double coverage. Allen threw deep into double coverage a few times. Oh and the plan makes even less sense with the wind conditions being what they were. Clearly folks are blaming the wind for Allen missing Diggs on a deep route - but IMO, Dabs caught a break because of the wind conditions as well - we have to thank the wind for Allen's throws not being intercepted - they were so off when he threw into double coverage😀 It is not a surprise that our best offensive drive of the night came where Singletary had his 12 yard and 9 yard runs. The fact that Allen got 206 yards throwing against that defense tells you how good Allen and Diggs are - they (along with the OL) bailed out their coach by not making any big mistakes (Allen did have a fumble - I called it a Bills' vulnerability in my preview - but kudos to Dawkins for falling on it and limiting the damage). I was also concerned with the play calling in the second half - we have the ball at the Ravens' 31, up two scores and 6 minutes left and Dabs play call leads to an Allen scramble to the right and a harmless throwaway that stops the clock. A three yard run instead there puts us more comfortably in FG range (given the weather conditions) and burns the clock. Really Dabs?  Game balls to Allen, Diggs and the entire Oline, a jar of stickum to Gabe Davis and detention with extra study for Daboll.

 

Bills on Defense

 

First the game plan. ever since the Chiefs game, we have seen our defense become increasingly aggressive with the blitzes in passing situations. Most of us remember how they gave Russell Wilson fits since he was dropping back to pass everytime. Nobody expected the Bills to have a similar game plan against Lamar Jackson - although I now see it as the Bills' base defense against scrambling QBs (that is how Lamar and Russ are similar). The Bills' speed at LB with Milano and especially, Edmunds, allows them to sell out on a blitz yet run sideline to sideline to contain Lamar from breaking out.

 

I have always felt that Jerry Hughes winning his one-on-one matchups does not translate well into QB pressures and sacks since he always has an outside move that takes him so far away from the QB. I dont know if this was intent or accident but planning for scrambling QB meant that you had to have the defensive end squeeze inside and the LB loop outside or Hughes on the outside and a blitzer on the inside. Hughes was deadly since his inside move was bringing him into the QB's face half the time. The play that set up the play of the game was the 2nd and 9 where Hughes was in Jackson's face preventing an easy TD to Hollywood Brown. 

 

Coming to the Bills' play of the last 25 years - that cover 2 call on the goalline was sheer genius on the part of Frazier closely following the 2nd and 9 incompletion. Leaving Taron Johnson shallow meant Jackson was too concerned with the secondary and failed to spot #24. Again this was the result of an aggressive game plan - if Lamar had more time all day - he would have been patient and gone with the guy Taron Johnson was supposed to cover for an easy touchdown once he saw Johnson cheating. But I am sure Hughes in his face on the previous play rattled him.

 

Overall, the Bills dared Jackson to throw and relied on a. their DL + Blitzer to pressure him and b. their disciplined and elite secondary to stop the completions. When you sell out with a blitz, there is going to be the occasional WR being "left all alone" but neither of the Ravens' QBs could take advantage of the couple of occasions that Hollywood Brown got behind the defense (likely the wind had something to do with it).

 

Strangely enough - if you black out the jersey numbers and just showed me animations, I woulda thought the Ravens Defense (multiple looks with secondary containment) was actually the Bills and the Bills Defense (aggressive blitzing) was actually the Ravens.

 

The Bills' major vulnerability had been the tackling. Micah Hyde in the pre game show was heard saying - "we gotta make sure we tackle well". On the first drive Poyer whiffed and the Ravens moved the ball and I was a lil scared. But as the game wore on, our tackling was pretty decent. Of course the best defense against the Ravens is to run up the score and once the TJ pick six happened, they had to abandon the run quite a bit - which meant we did not have to worry about our tackling so much.

 

Game Balls to Taron Johnson (let us give him 2), Frazier, Edmunds and Hughes.

 

Bottomline: We won handily this week thanks to the defense and despite a flawed plan on offense and adverse wind conditions. Daboll and the offense however get some slack since they have carried us the whole season - I like it that we are balanced enough that each side of the ball can  cover the other side's deficiencies and still pull out wins. That is the hallmark of great teams - since they can have an off-day and still beat a decent opponent. Cant wait to punch our ticket to Tampa this weekend. Go Bills.

I’d give a game ball to Mother Nature for screwing with Tucker’s FG attempts.   Or was that the ghost of Kent Hull?

[VW82]

This is going to sound mean but Daboll was obv in the running for HC opportunities, only I didn't see until after the game that he'd re-committed to the Bills for 2021. My immediate reaction was "his suitors clearly watched the Ravens game." 

Edited January 20, 2021 by VW82

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, TailgateChef said:

Good review.  Gives one pause on always praising Daboll.  The pass really could have set up the run in the 2nd quarter, like it did at the start of the 3rd.

I was literally screaming for draw plays in the 2nd quarter based on the Raven defense. Alas they never came. I know our OL/ run game is not formidable but that 1st half was ridiculous? 

[JMF2006]

Well considering it was a defensive struggle I would still give Daboll a B.

 

With no running game he still managed the only offensive TD in the game and had the Bills within range of 3 FG's

[JMF2006]

4 hours ago, VW82 said:

This is going to sound mean but Daboll was obv in the running for HC opportunities, only I didn't see until after the game that he'd re-committed to the Bills for 2021. My immediate reaction was "his suitors clearly watched the Ravens game." 

 

There is a lot that goes into the interview like who is your OC,DC,ST coordinators going to be? what schemes will you be running? How do the current players fit?

 

What do you think this team needs to compete at the top?

 

Ect Ect Ect Yada Yada Yada

 

I am pretty sure the decision  wasn't based on one game.

 

Besides its a win for the Bills and Josh to have him stay.

Edited January 20, 2021 by JMF2006

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, BornAgainBillsFan said:

 

Thanks! I hope they play a lot of the 4-3 against KC (especially since they gashed us on the ground in Week 6!), because the all 3 LBs are playing great right now.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

I highly doubt they do that. The last thing you want to do against KC is to say, "We're taking away the run, if you want to win you're going to have to pass on us." KC would take that with a smile all day long.

 

Agreed that they'll have to do better against the run than they did last time. I'd expect some adjustments, but my guess is they'll be more about alignment and run fills than putting in personnel to stop the run. Milano completely missed the Titans and Chiefs game, and Edmunds was injured and a shell of himself. IMO just having those guys on the field and healthy should help some.

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

There is a lot that goes into the interview like who is your OC,DC,ST coordinators going to be? what schemes will you be running? How do the current players fit?

 

What do you think this team needs to compete at the top?

 

Ect Ect Ect Yada Yada Yada

 

I am pretty sure the decision  wasn't based on one game.

 

Besides its a win for the Bills and Josh to have him stay.

 

Agree. Nobody is making Head Coaching decisions based on 1 game. Not even the Houston Texans. 

 

And I don't actually agree with much of the criticism of Daboll last week. The Colts game? Yea I thought he had a questionable plan that day. Last Saturday I thought the plan was fine. The Ravens D are really good, it was into an absolute gale and if Bass makes his two kicks the Bills put up 23. Nothing wrong with the plan at all IMO. 

6 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I think Baltimore did a nice job on D. But I also blame a lot of our offensive woes on the wind. Guys were open, but throws were off or not attempted due to the wind. 

 

If Baltimore did one thing pretty well, it was bracketing Beasley. They doubled him more than I thought. If this happens this week, the Bills really need to feed John Brown a lot more. He had a lot of opportunities last week, and he will absolutely kill the chiefs if they cover him with their 3rd or 4th best DB. 
 

Cover 1 guys seem to mostly support me:

 

 

 

Yep. The OP stating the Ravens sold out in the secondary is just off. What they did was flood the intermediate zones. They still left their corners 1 on 1 a lot. They were willing the Bills to throw deep and they did an excellent job of taking those drive sustaining 5-15 yard pass plays away. They doubled Beasley most of the game in bracket coverage. They had a really nice plan and did a really nice job. 

[The Jokeman]

11 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

Big ? Is if kc blitzes a ton like they did in the 1st game or if they have a similar game plan to the Ravens??

KC has injuries in the secondary, I'd imagine they'd blitz to try and get Josh to make bad decisions or get him down. Yet it's risky because if our oline protects like has most of the year Josh should be able to go through his progressions and find an open man. 

[TBBills]

The only problem wasn't with Daboll... The wind took a few of Josh's balls that would have put this game away a long time ago. 

 

This team needs a dome for Josh, it's the least this state could do for the next future HoF QB.

[SoCal Deek]

I agree with the OP. I do however remain really concerned with the Bills Defense in third and long situations. Many times last Saturday it looked a lot like the Houston Playoff OT melt down. Come on guys! Playing deep is one thing but make sure you protect the Line to Gain! 

[Coach Tuesday]

I mostly agree with this analysis.  Sounds like McDermott saw the same thing and told Daboll at halftime to adjust.  Honestly he shouldn’t have to do it, Dabs needs a bit more situational awareness.  Dabs sometimes is a bit too slow with making in-game adjustments although he usually does make them.  I haven’t watched the All-22 but on the TV broadcast of Allen’s deep throws it looked to me that there were guys open underneath.  The best way to keep Mahomes off the field is to sustain time-consuming drives so I hope they are more patient this week on offense.  Work down the field slowly.  Use the whole play clock.  Etc.

[machine gun kelly]

10 hours ago, BornAgainBillsFan said:

A lot of you are better at the Xs & Os than me, and I've been dying to ask somebody a question since Saturday's game. And this thread seems like a good one for it.

 

I noticed for the first time on Saturday that Milano and Klein were on the field at the same time on multiple plays. Don't they both play weak side linebacker, which is why we haven't seen as much of Klein since Milano came back from injury? But Saturday, it was noticeable that the two of them + Edmonds were flying all over the field at the same time.

 

Is this a recent thing because they've been planning to spring it on opponents in the playoffs? Or am I just misreading the whole thing?

Hey Born, haven’t read the whole thread yet so apologize proactively if already answered.  On this team we don’t play base defense as much as some times, so Taron was substituted with Klein at a 65% or so nickel with Taron, to 1/3 Klein.  Klein when Milano’s playing so a traditional 4-3 with 2 safeties, and 2 CB’s was the Sam (I’m sure you know but just in case the Strong Side LB). Millano was out so much this year would be easy to confuse as he was the Wil. When Milano was out.  
 

That was simply because the Ravens can only seem to pass inside the hash marks, and TE’s used a lot over the middle.  It was a very smart plan for this run heavy team.  We set the edge with Murphy more in this game, and clogged up the middle so the TE end throws we took away.  McD and Frazier had a great defensive game plan and used the right talent.

 

I don’t expect to see this as much against the Chiefs, but if we get past them (I’m betting 60% chance we win) and get the Packs, you may a little more of this strategy, as they are a good running team.  Most casual fans (not saying you) always think of GB as a pass happy team.  That’s a more balanced team so you can expect mixing it up a lot, dare I speak the words SB.  That will be one hell of a good game if we win, and if the Packs win to get to the SB.  The Bucs beat them earlier in the year, but the Packs like us have turned it on in the last half of the year.

 

I hope that helps, and my opinion is not doctrine so others may feel differently, but never be concerned with a very good question.  I certainly have needed these other guys to help me at times.  Just because I played and coached, I as many of my friends remind me here don’t know everything about football.  It’s a lot more complicated of a sport than some others.  It’s really a chess match and talent.

 

So fwiw, that’s my opinion.

 

Oh just because I’m typing this now, breaking news, Rivers is retiring.  Just went over the air on WGR.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 hours ago, VW82 said:

This is going to sound mean but Daboll was obv in the running for HC opportunities, only I didn't see until after the game that he'd re-committed to the Bills for 2021. My immediate reaction was "his suitors clearly watched the Ravens game." 

Lol I doubt thats the issue...I think its the uncertainty of having to wait until hes out of the playoffs while all of the other top name coaches are taking jobs elsewhere so a team that is interested in daboll but not sure he'll sign with them wouldve been taking quite a risk