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Gamblers Thread: Bills @ Chiefs Championship game


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8 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Ya think?

 

 

It's just a reminder that if you like the Bills the spread will be even more enticing if you wait.

 

Take the last Miami game for example. Vegas was convinced the Bills would rest players and favored the Fins by 3. I took the moneyline early. 

 

By game time the line moved to Miami -4.5 and the Bills moneyline went from +108 to +135. So I hit that again. You all know how things turned out.

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On 1/19/2021 at 2:51 AM, PrimeTime101 said:

An old saying.. Don't bet money for or against your own team. to much emotional attachment

 I really have no problem betting against Buffalo. But only if the other team is an underdog or if it's a pick em. I'll bet the other team to win outright. I'm happy to lose $$ and see the Bills win. But if they lose, I wake up with extra cash. It's really a win/win. In a way, it kind of feels like I'm paying for a W 😆, which I'm sure many of us would do.

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On 1/19/2021 at 2:51 AM, PrimeTime101 said:

An old saying.. Don't bet money for or against your own team. to much emotional attachment

 

Stupid saying. Nothing wrong with betting on your own team.  The Bills bought me a new laptop this year.  They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10.  For me personally 7-1 ATS.   Go Bills. 

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Betting the Bills this year helped pay the Bills-  we crushed vs spread on a weekly basis.  
 

Also have them at +4000 to win the SB.  Mad that I didn’t bet more than my usually $100. I should hedge, but I won’t.

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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Betting the Bills this year helped pay the Bills-  we crushed vs spread on a weekly basis.  
 

Also have them at +4000 to win the SB.  Mad that I didn’t bet more than my usually $100. I should hedge, but I won’t.

 

Wow. I got them at 17-1 for $100.  You must have been a believer in this team pretty early on.  

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37 minutes ago, BITE ME said:

 

Wow. I got them at 17-1 for $100.  You must have been a believer in this team pretty early on.  

Yeah, I placed the bet Jan 29th 2020.  I figured we’d have an aggressive offseason and wanted to get in on the action before the line plummeted. 

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On 1/19/2021 at 12:13 AM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Can someone explain this sugar high josh thing to me lol dude missed an open bomb down the field in swirling winds...hes not overthrowing open guys cuz hes too amped up

Josh is a young raw QB seasoning every game.  The sugar high is in response to his hyped up play at critical high pressure times.  Several examples of this;  his first playoff game against Houston - the fumble and the lateral.  This year in playoffs his first pass sailed over J Brown - JA looked amped.  Later in both playoff games he has fumbled in the 4th quarter.  The Bills luckily recovered but nonetheless he has got to get more aware of risk/reward and closing out the game.

 

I'm hoping this game will actually have a little less internal pressure on him, as it does for many of us.  And we can see the end of regular season Josh letting loose.  The internal pressure in these situations is certainly a factor.  And it is something Josh  can improve on - generally with experience.

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On ‎1‎/‎18‎/‎2021 at 8:27 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

The line will move even more toward KC if Mahomes is cleared.

The line already has Mahomes playing at -3, what you're not seeing is the money coming in on KC once its made known that hes a full go. This line will go to KC-4 by tomorrow and I will hammer the Bills...

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2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I saw a line where I would risk 55 to win 77 on the Bills with no points. 

 

Is this a good line?

That’s the current money line offered pretty much everywhere.   Bills +140

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I like to look at other data....

 

for the last 20 conference Championships (2000 season to 2019 season)

 

Home team wins 67.5% of the time, Away team 32.5%

 

Winner was split, one home, one away, 9 out of the 20 years, Surprisingly all were between 2000-2011

 

Both home teams won 9 of the 20 years. 

 

Both Away teams only won twice, in 2012 and 2018. 

 

 

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Just now, Just Jack said:

I like to look at other data....

 

for the last 20 conference Championships

 

Home team wins 67.5% of the time, Away team 32.5%

 

Winner was split, one home, one away, 9 out of the 20 years, Surprisingly all were between 2000-2011

 

Both home teams won 9 of the 20 years. 

 

Both Away teams only won twice, in 2012 and 2018. 

 

 

 

I guess it's harder this year to apply the data no? Crowd noise / half empty stadiums etc...

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