538 Gives Bills 65% chance of winning against Ravens and model says point spread should be Bills -4.5

[The Frankish Reich 1,662]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

After the election, everything 538 does needs to be taken with a grain of salt

The one big thing they got right: translating popular vote margin into likelihood of an electoral college win. Given the natural Republican electoral college advantage, they predicted that  Biden would need a popular vote margin of at least 3-4 percent to prevail. And the final tally was spot on 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli 1,751]

BuT iT's AlWaYs WrOnG iN pReSiDeNtIaL eLeCtIoNs

[UB2SF 34]

I've always enjoyed their predictive analytics for sports.  One the things I really liked about looking at their model today -- it shows that the Bills and the Chiefs are the only two teams left who have 14 wins this season.  Fourteen wins!  Still can't believe it sometimes.  GO BILLS!

[Big Turk 6,776]

35 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I think the Bills should be favorites but not by nearly 2 to 1 odds.   I see this as a 55-45 odds type of deal.   

 

After looking at the type of defense Baltimore plays and what we do to that type of defense, the Bills could put up 40 on them.  They play a heavy blitz/man defense but don't get to the QB very much(think Miami---almost identical...blitz a ton, hope very good corners hold up). #1 in blitz in the NFL but only 11h in pressures and 20th in QB hurries. Allen will torch them if they try this. He has done it all year long against pretty much every team that tried it(Rams, Dolphins, and Seahawks as well as Pittsburgh once we blocked Heyward).  We should be really excited about this.

 

Ravens tried this against Mahomes and the Chiefs and he torched them and put up 395 yards passing against them. This a terrible matchup for the Ravens.

Edited January 11 by Big Turk

[Casey D 288]

1 hour ago, jletha said:

They also predicted that Biden could win even with a strong polling error in favor of Trump, which is what happened. But some of the win projections in individual states was way off. Why is Wisconsin so hard to poll haha?

It's the cheese.

[Dr.Mantis_Toboggan 252]

LOL @ the Saints being over 70% to beat Tom Brady (who is now clicking with his THREE all pro caliber WRs) for a third time in one season, at what amounts to a neutral site. 
 

Not happening. Time for the Saints to atone, they are done.

 

 

[Magox 6,081]

31 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

After looking at the type of defense Baltimore plays and what we do to that type of defense, the Bills could put up 40 on them.  They play a heavy blitz/man defense but don't get to the QB very much(think Miami---almost identical...blitz a ton, hope very good corners hold up). #1 in blitz in the NFL but only 11h in pressures and 20th in QB hurries. Allen will torch them if they try this. He has done it all year long against pretty much every team that tried it(Rams, Dolphins, and Seahawks as well as Pittsburgh once we blocked Heyward).  We should be really excited about this.

 

Ravens tried this against Mahomes and the Chiefs and he torched them and put up 395 yards passing against them. This a terrible matchup for the Ravens.

 

I hear what you are saying and stylistically the Bills have crushed these sort of defenses, except for the Steelers which limited Buffalo for about 60% of the game.  The difference is that the Ravens have two really good man to man corners and the receivers will have to bring their A game especially if they look to provide help to guard Diggs.   

 

I am excited about the matchup and I believe we will get the better of them.  I also think it is possible that we could put up lots of points but I wouldn't bet on it.  It's the playoffs and the Ravens are playing very good D right now.  I think we'll probably put up somewhere around 30 points.

[Big Turk 6,776]

Just now, Magox said:

 

I hear what you are saying and stylistically the Bills have crushed these sort of defenses, except for the Steelers which limited Buffalo for about 60% of the game.  The difference is that the Ravens have two really good man to man corners and the receivers will have to bring their A game especially if they look to provide help to guard Diggs.   

 

I am excited about the matchup and I believe we will get the better of them.  I also think it is possible that we could put up lots of points but I wouldn't bet on it.  It's the playoffs and the Ravens are playing very good D right now.  I think we'll probably put up somewhere around 30 points.

 

Dolphins have 1st team all pro Xavien Howard and the highest paid CB in the NFL in Byron Jones. They are probably a push in terms of CB's.  That isn't going to help them.  Rams have Jalen Ramsey and Antonio Williams.  Man coverage is almost impossible against deep overs with Allen putting the ball perfectly in stride out in front and on deep comebacks because Allen's arm gets the ball out there o fast the defender literally doesn't even have time to stop and turn around.

[Magox 6,081]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Dolphins have 1st team all pro Xavien Howard and the highest paid CB in the NFL in Byron Jones. They are probably a push in terms of CB's.  That isn't going to help them.  Rams have Jalen Ramsey and Antonio Williams.  Man coverage is almost impossible against deep overs with Allen putting the ball perfectly in stride out in front and on deep comebacks because Allen's arm gets the ball out there o fast the defender literally doesn't even have time to stop and turn around.

 

I get it, you are extremely bullish on the Bills receivers.  I'm hopeful but I think this tandem is better than any other tandem we have faced and they are red hot in the playoffs.  I also expect them to throw in a few new wrinkles that could give momentary pause to Josh but at the end of the day I think we pull it out with a solid offensive performance.

[dneveu 1,543]

1 hour ago, jletha said:

They also predicted that Biden could win even with a strong polling error in favor of Trump, which is what happened. But some of the win projections in individual states was way off. Why is Wisconsin so hard to poll haha?

 

A lot of the times its because they keep moving districts imo.  Comparing historical data is challenging when the data is covering districts that don't exist in the same way.

[wjag 1,224]

45 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

After looking at the type of defense Baltimore plays and what we do to that type of defense, the Bills could put up 40 on them.  They play a heavy blitz/man defense but don't get to the QB very much(think Miami---almost identical...blitz a ton, hope very good corners hold up). #1 in blitz in the NFL but only 11h in pressures and 20th in QB hurries. Allen will torch them if they try this. He has done it all year long against pretty much every team that tried it(Rams, Dolphins, and Seahawks as well as Pittsburgh once we blocked Heyward).  We should be really excited about this.

 

Ravens tried this against Mahomes and the Chiefs and he torched them and put up 395 yards passing against them. This a terrible matchup for the Ravens.

 

They haven't had all their lineman on the field at the same time much this year.   They do now.   I think that has kept their numbers down.  Make no mistake, they are coming after Josh.  They will likely get there.  This is the battle Buffalo must win if they want to win the game.  I have already ceded the loss of the Bills Dline to their OLine.  

[Big Turk 6,776]

8 minutes ago, wjag said:

 

They haven't had all their lineman on the field at the same time much this year.   They do now.   I think that has kept their numbers down.  Make no mistake, they are coming after Josh.  They will likely get there.  This is the battle Buffalo must win if they want to win the game.  I have already ceded the loss of the Bills Dline to their OLine.  

 

I doubt it, at least not to the degree Pittsburgh was. The stats don't back that up. And if they do is it going to matter? Seattle sacked him 7 times and he put up 415 yards and 3 TDs.

 

Bills have blocked well against far better defenses than the Ravens in terms of pass rush.

 

 

Edited January 11 by Big Turk

[JohnNord 582]

3 hours ago, SinatraSinger said:

If you go to sportsline.com they have the spread at Buffalo -2.5 with the over/under at 50.   The simulated score at the moment is Baltimore 25, Buffalo 24.  So they are stating that you should bet Baltimore with the spread.

 

It makes sense the advanced analytics between these two teams are pretty even.

[BillsFanSD 1,363]

-4.5 and 65% sounds about right to me.  The Bills are a better team that the Ravens.  They're not a wildly better team than the Ravens.

[HOUSE 9,129]

Who are these 538 people and where do they live ?