Big Turk Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 (edited) Bills have lowest chance among any of the favorites. For what it is worth, Baltimore was favored against Tennessee in their models with a 57% chance of winning. Edited January 11, 2021 by Big Turk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bferra13 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Ehhh. It's something I guess. Im pretty sure they also agreed with Reich goin for it on 4th and goal at the 4. Take it for the grain of salt its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US Egg Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 What is 538 and why should I be concerned? .....nevermind. Sorry for the intrusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreboding Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Bucs/Saints % looks a little off to me. Ravens are a really good team. 65% is a decent chance! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BITE ME Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I wasn't worried about the Bills losing to the Ravens until 538 picked the Bills. The Bills are in trouble. 😬 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SinatraSinger Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 If you go to sportsline.com they have the spread at Buffalo -2.5 with the over/under at 50. The simulated score at the moment is Baltimore 25, Buffalo 24. So they are stating that you should bet Baltimore with the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 do they know we have antonio williams? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I wouldn't lose too much sleep over what Nate Silver has to say on the topic. Dunkirk Don has about as good a track record as he does 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 After the election, everything 538 does needs to be taken with a grain of salt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 27 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said: After the election, everything 538 does needs to be taken with a grain of salt I mean - reliance upon polling data and trends is always a challenge. Certain polls traditionally are right - but you're still extrapolating a ton of data from a small sample size. The high number of absentee and mail-in ballots in general made this an incredibly hard election to project. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, dneveu said: I mean - reliance upon polling data and trends is always a challenge. Certain polls traditionally are right - but you're still extrapolating a ton of data from a small sample size. The high number of absentee and mail-in ballots in general made this an incredibly hard election to project. You're right, and models always have the caveat that they are drawing from the data they have and there is risk of an incomplete set. But maaaaaaan those margins were off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said: You're right, and models always have the caveat that they are drawing from the data they have and there is risk of an incomplete set. But maaaaaaan those margins were off They nailed the Georgia senate races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jethro_tull Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 this is interesting and hopeful ! regardless the Bills are in the top 4 and are capable of winning this and every game. it passes the eye test IMHO. They all have chinks in their armor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jletha Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 36 minutes ago, dneveu said: I mean - reliance upon polling data and trends is always a challenge. Certain polls traditionally are right - but you're still extrapolating a ton of data from a small sample size. The high number of absentee and mail-in ballots in general made this an incredibly hard election to project. They also predicted that Biden could win even with a strong polling error in favor of Trump, which is what happened. But some of the win projections in individual states was way off. Why is Wisconsin so hard to poll haha? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Think our strategy should be the same against any team but especially the Ravens.. Put points on the board quick and force Jackson to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 If you don’t like this model, just find another one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: If you don’t like this model, just find another one... lol indeed... Speaking of... - ESPN's FPI has the Ravens at 51% to win. Edited January 11, 2021 by BobChalmers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 22 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: If you don’t like this model, just find another one... that's what Billy Joel said.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Big Turk said: Bills have lowest chance among any of the favorites. For what it is worth, Baltimore was favored against Tennessee in their models with a 57% chance of winning. I think the Bills should be favorites but not by nearly 2 to 1 odds. I see this as a 55-45 odds type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 That 79/21 split for KC vs. Cleveland seems about right. Our 65% chance sounds good to me. I'll take that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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