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Divisional Playoff round: Ravens at Bills on Saturday Night Football


YoloinOhio

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1 hour ago, freddyjj said:

LOL  10 mph is Windy?  The average breeze ion WNY is 8mph 9 months out of the year.   10-15  mph is no factor 

 

Believe 20 mph is where ball flight of a spiral might vary.  And the wind always swirls in the bowl.  

Okay >15 mph. WNY is one of the most consistently windy places anywhere, period (that isn’t a mountain)

 

...we finally have a guy that is a modern NFL passer and now our home field disadvantage vs run. 
 

snow is BS, not a problem. 

wind 15 mph is a real prob for us. 

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1 hour ago, Rockinon said:

 

Well, that's about as shallow as a rain puddle on a pitted city sidewalk. 

 

Let's start here:

"The interior of the Bills defense was exposed against the Colts in the Wild Card round. Colts RBs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines combined for 153 yards on 27 carries (5.6 YPC)." 


Well, now, let's look at that a bit under the hood.  First of all let's look at Hines and Taylor:

image.thumb.png.2fee89d566d18d724efed2e09ecafbfd.pngimage.thumb.png.c5c30b01bd57b0a6d8605875b4663518.png

Now I dunno exactly, but it doesn't exactly look to me like plunging up the middle of the Bills DL gouged out 5.6 ypc to me.   I think this guy is suffering from the thing where you undershoot and overshoot the duck, so statistically it's dead.
 

I take 3 things from this:

1) most of the yards given up were on 2 long runs of 29 and 33 yds for Hines and 20 yds for Taylor in the 4th Q.  That's 82 of the 163 yards on 3 plays

2) those 3 runs appear to be outside the tackles
3) that means 81 yards were given up on 27 carries other than that, or 3 ypc

 

A further piece of info:  55 yards in the 1st half and 16 additional yards in the 3Q

 

Now maybe Edwards can get 'er done better than Taylor could, I don't know, but I think the diagnosis "the center of the Bills DL is soft and undersized so we'll send the Gus Bus at 'em for 5.6 ypc" might not quite be the best strategy.


There's plenty more, but I'll stop here for now.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, that's about as shallow as a rain puddle on a pitted city sidewalk. 

 

Let's start here:

"The interior of the Bills defense was exposed against the Colts in the Wild Card round. Colts RBs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines combined for 153 yards on 27 carries (5.6 YPC)." 


Well, now, let's look at that a bit under the hood.  First of all let's look at Hines and Taylor:

image.thumb.png.2fee89d566d18d724efed2e09ecafbfd.pngimage.thumb.png.c5c30b01bd57b0a6d8605875b4663518.png

Now I dunno exactly, but it doesn't exactly look to me like plunging up the middle of the Bills DL gouged out 5.6 ypc to me.   I think this guy is suffering from the thing where you undershoot and overshoot the duck, so statistically it's dead.
 

I take 3 things from this:

1) most of the yards given up were on 2 long runs of 29 and 33 yds for Hines and 20 yds for Taylor in the 4th Q.  That's 82 of the 163 yards on 3 plays

2) those 3 runs appear to be outside the tackles
3) that means 81 yards were given up on 27 carries other than that, or 3 ypc

 

A further piece of info:  55 yards in the 1st half and 16 additional yards in the 3Q

 

Now maybe Edwards can get 'er done better than Taylor could, I don't know, but I think the diagnosis "the center of the Bills DL is soft and undersized so we'll send the Gus Bus at 'em for 5.6 ypc" might not quite be the best strategy.


There's plenty more, but I'll stop here for now.

 

 


This is great stuff! 
 

My theory on this is maybe too simplistic. Bills did a nice job stopping Taylor and the run game the entire day.

 

When they got gouged was when the colts were down in the game and in obvious passing downs. The Bills were playing pass, and the colts kept running (mostly through shotgun draws). Those were when they gave up all of those long runs.

 

That also supports my theory that the Bills can basically do one thing well on D. They can key into either the pass or run. I think that bodes well this week, where I think they are going to just look to stop the run and force Jackson to beat them throwing. 

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2 hours ago, Penfield45 said:

 

why does it matter? lol 

 

the season is over. winning streaks and records don't matter in the playoffs. its win or go home. 

 

he wins games. end of discussion 

 

 

Jackson is 31-9 overall (30-7 regular season) as a starting QB in 2-1/2 seasons. No matter what his detractors say, that’s a pretty good start to a career. 

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Pete Prisco https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/pete-priscos-nfl-picks-for-divisional-round-saints-sweep-bradys-bucs-bills-edge-ravens-in-thriller/

 

This will be a battle of two star quarterbacks, one who runs it as well as anybody ever has from the position in Lamar Jackson, and the other in Josh Allen, who has been outstanding throwing it this season. The Ravens will make no bones about what they want to do on offense, which is to pound it. They are averaging 262 rushing yards a game in their last six games. The Bills have improved against the run from earlier in the year, but this will be a big challenge. The strategy from coordinator Leslie Frazier will be something to watch in terms of trying to keep Jackson contained. The Ravens defense is back healthy now, which is why they impressed last week against the Titans. But this is a bigger challenge in facing Allen. This will be a close game, but in the end I think Allen will make the game-winning plays late to pull it out -- but it will be razor-thin close. 

Pick: Bills 27, Ravens 26

Edited by SlimShady'sSpaceForce
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4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Did we watch the same video? Maybe I missed it, but Cosell doesn’t even say that in there?
 

It was a 2 minute segment on Bills/Ravens. He spent the first 30 seconds talking about how these two teams played last year and Buffalo did a really good job, but they played out of their base defense (that was one of the only times we played extensively out of our base defense, we play Nickel a lot under McDermott), and this year they play in Nickel 90% of the time with Taron Johnson assuming LB responsibilities (and he says Johnson is VERY good at it). 

 

Then he says very briefly the Ravens added some counter-gap schemes along with the “Lamar Jackson factor.” He then says it’s all about stopping the run and how you try to stop it, and then goes into his 1 minute blurb on the Bills. 
 

He went on to say that as much as Josh likes to escape the pocket to make plays, he’s going to have to make plays from the pocket in this game to win. Basically insinuating Josh hasn’t been able to do that this year. 
 

Overall in that 2 minute clip, Cosell didn’t provide me anything of actual substances and he seems pretty ill informed. 

@Penfield45

 

I am still looking for some clarification as to why the Ravens are better and more dynamic running the ball this year? 

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3 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

@Penfield45

 

I am still looking for some clarification as to why the Ravens are better and more dynamic running the ball this year? 


Clearly you haven’t watched the Lamar Jackson TD run from midfield enough.  
 

Perhaps 20 more replays on ESPN will be enough to convince you.  
 

Edited by SCBills
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2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Be that as it may, it’s the main reason for the narrative being built around the Ravens all week. 

This is simply another test for this Bill's team.  You gotta respect both LJ and the Raven's defense.

 

But the Bills will pass this next test.

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1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

 

Stephan A is always wrong when he's interrupting the other guys at the table.  Always.  And he was interrupting a lot here. He said his peace and then wouldn't let Max say his without interrupting.  Great juju for the Bills.

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47 minutes ago, Crow-Magnon said:

Jackson is 31-9 overall (30-7 regular season) as a starting QB in 2-1/2 seasons. No matter what his detractors say, that’s a pretty good start to a career. 

 

I think very highly of Lamar Jackson.  But W-L record is simply NOT a QB stat. 

 

The Ravens were a stable, well-coached team before they drafted him. 

They've had a top-3 defense since he arrived, top 10 for the last 5 years.

They've also had a 1000+ yard back last year and two backs contributing 1600 yds this year.  And as the Bills know, Greg Roman is a genius at designing an effective run game.

 

Again - in no way wanting to diss LJ as a player, or his contributions to the Poe-birds success.   But the W-L record goes way beyond his contributions.

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