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Playoff Game Postgame Thread


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11 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:


My guess is Saturday games will be 4 and 8.

 

Sunday games will be 1 and 4 

 

Just a guess 


Agreed.  Buffalo will be playing Steelers at 4p is my guess. 

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39 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:


My guess is Saturday games will be 4 and 8.

 

Sunday games will be 1 and 4 

 

Just a guess 

 

27 minutes ago, wjag said:


Agreed.  Buffalo will be playing Steelers at 4p is my guess. 

 

Guys.  No need to speculate; not one matchup next weekend is known yet.

 

Saturday is 4 and 8, Sunday 3 and 6.

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2 hours ago, gordong said:

really don't understand QBR rating.  How does River get a better QBR with completions % 16 point lower, less yard more attempts. ???     

 

Rivers.   27/46 58%. 2 TD's 1 rush -1 yard.   QBR 91.9.    RTG 93.5

Allen.     26/35. 74% 2 TD's 11 rush 54 another TD.  QBR 85.   RTG 121.6

 

 

QBR is a proprietary calcuation [e.g. ESPN's enigma machine]. 

Here's a wikipedia writeup. 

If Dean Oliver is involved, he's a Bill James type stats guru, very smart and solid guy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

 

In a nutshell, I think Rivers higher QBR in this case was he was dinking and dunking, but his receivers were picking up lots of yards after catch, whereas Josh's throws [e.g. Davis toe drags, knox TD] accounted for nearly all of the yardage on the play. 

The tight ends in particular were gashing our defense.  Kelce is giving me nightmares already.

Also Rivers was not sacked and did not fumble. 

Josh was sacked 2 times for 23 yards and had a fumble, which doesn't affect his NFL rating, but does impact QBR.

 

Hope this helps.  Apparently the program for QBR takes 10,000 lines of computer code, which is a pretty complex algorithm for an application.

 

I've been doing stats [baseball, football, basketball] since 1965, computer science degree and 50 year bean counter.

 

Edited by BearNorth
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15 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

But he wasn’t tackled in bounds! He was going forward as he went out, so stoppage of forward progress didn’t come into play. More importantly, if he was ruled to be tackled in bounds, the clock should never have stopped in the first place. Yet it did stop, because he actually got out of bounds.


yeah I was on about the fumble/not fumble play. Gonna go back and figure which play this was but I have a headache atm

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1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Thinking about this game this morning, and McDermott’s last TO saved the game. Had the play been run, it was an 11 yard completion to the sideline to Hilton at the 40-yard line, with the clock Stopped and about 12-15 seconds left. The colts could have probably gotten 5 more yards and kicked a FG.

Plus he used that same TO earlier to force a replay of the fumble that should have resulted in winning them game. His use of timeouts at the end there was great.

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17 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

One thing to note: the refs did screw the colts at the end. After the Colts receiver got out of bounds with 19 seconds, they stopped the clock. They line up while the clock is stopped, and then five seconds before rivers snapped it, they started it! The bills called TO, and it was set to 14 seconds instead of 19 (which was the correct amount of time left). But still, it should never have come to that because FUMBLE.

I noticed this too. But they also didn’t run off 10 seconds on the previous play after they ruled the Colts WR down even though they gave the Bills their timeout back. So the Colts got a net add of 5 seconds at the end, which was worth an extra play.

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8 hours ago, billsherd said:

It's been pretty much same all season. This had been good for our OLine and Allen.

 

The problem is you never know when they're gonna start calling it.  So if one OL holds every play and the other team's OL doesn't, that's huge.

Or if the refs don't call it until they do, on a couple crucial plays...

 

Consistency is important and that's my major beef with the NFL refs.

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29 minutes ago, vincec said:

I noticed this too. But they also didn’t run off 10 seconds on the previous play after they ruled the Colts WR down even though they gave the Bills their timeout back. So the Colts got a net add of 5 seconds at the end, which was worth an extra play.

On that play, the ball was actually fumbled out of bounds.  The player did not get out of bounds before being hit and the ball coming out.  Which then the clock doesn't stop if it is a fumble out of bounds I believe.

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14 minutes ago, CaliBills said:

On that play, the ball was actually fumbled out of bounds.  The player did not get out of bounds before being hit and the ball coming out.  Which then the clock doesn't stop if it is a fumble out of bounds I believe.

I would have to go look at the replay, but the ref on the sidelines was clearly signaling for the clock to stop. Maybe they overruled him. But then why did they wait to restart the clock? Strange.

 

Edit: I looked at the replay and I think you nailed it. Fumbled the ball out of bounds. Clock is stopped until the refs spot the ball and signal ready for play, which is what happened. Nice catch.

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42 minutes ago, vincec said:

I noticed this too. But they also didn’t run off 10 seconds on the previous play after they ruled the Colts WR down even though they gave the Bills their timeout back. So the Colts got a net add of 5 seconds at the end, which was worth an extra play.

 

11 minutes ago, CaliBills said:

On that play, the ball was actually fumbled out of bounds.  The player did not get out of bounds before being hit and the ball coming out.  Which then the clock doesn't stop if it is a fumble out of bounds I believe.

This. Michael Pittman Jr (who saved the best game of his rookie season for us) actually said after the game that he fumbled out of bounds and that's why the clock was running. If you look at the box score, Levi Wallace got credit for a forced fumble on that play. Unlike the obvious fumble that they screwed up, the refs actually got that one right. 

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