Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) So last year Allen was a top five QB in both passer rating and first down percentage on 3rd and 10+ plays. The one concerning area is that Allen had 44 such attempts on 3rd and 10+, good for the 9th most 3rd and long attempts in the league. Fast forward to 2020 and Allen is still a leader in first down percentage. He is tied with a couple players at 40% (improved from 32% last year). I believe only Derek Carr had a higher first down percentage on 3rd and 10+ than Allen this year. Carr was 41.6%. For passer rating, Allen's 106.6 rating was good enough for 5th highest among all starting QB's. And the attempts plummeted from 44 in 2019 down to only 27 in 2020 which was low enough to rank him tied with Lamar Jackson for second fewest attempts behind Carr's league low 24. So in 2020 we saw the best of both worlds. The Bills and Allen were forced into a league low number of 3rd and 10+ plays. At the same time Allen remained a league leader in first down percentage and passer rating, ranking second and fifth in the league respectively. Some notable players in comparison: Josh Allen: 40.7% 1st down % 106.6 passer rating 27 Attempts Aaron Rodgers: 33.3% 1st down % 89.1 passer rating 36 Attempts Patrick Mahomes: 25.6% 1st down % 86.4 passer rating 39 Attempts (Mahomes lead the league last year with a 122.8 rating) Phillip Rivers: 12.5% 1st down % 74.5 passer rating 40 Attempts Stathead: 3rd and 10+ passing statistics Edited August 19, 2021 by Sammy Watkins' Rib 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I literally feel the Bills are going to convert every 3rd down they face no matter how far it is. Allen can easily pick up 20 on any given play it seems. Just scary how good this offense is. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I remember during NE Brady years hating going up against NE on 3rd and 5 or less cause they could do ANYTHING! That's where this team is at right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 This is not a surprise and here is the big picture view, imo. The 2019 version of Josh Allen was good at 3rd and long, 4th quarters, Red Zone, and road games, These are not situations that a young, developing NFL QB who is mediocre or pathetic or whatever other such adjectives we have read or heard would excel in. Quite the opposite. They are the more challenging. Anyone inclined to crap on 2019 Josh when telling the story of 2020 Josh has not bothered to look at it very closely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: So last year Allen was a top five QB in both passer rating and first down percentage on 3rd and 10+ plays. The one concerning area is that Allen had 44 such attempts on 3rd and 10+, good for the 9th most 3rd and long attempts in the league. Fast forward to 2020 and Allen is still a leader in first down percentage. He is tied with a couple players at 40% (improved from 32% last year). I believe only Derek Carr had a higher first down percentage on 3rd and 10+ than Allen this year. Carr was 41.6%. For passer rating, Allen's 106.6 rating was good enough for 5th highest among all starting QB's. And the attempts plummeted from 44 in 2019 down to only 27 in 2020 which was low enough to rank him tied with Lamar Jackson for second fewest attempts behind Carr's league low 24. So in 2020 we saw the best of both worlds. The Bills and Allen were forced into a league low number of 3rd and 10+ plays. At the same time Allen remained a league leader in first down percentage and passer rating, ranking second and fifth in the league respectively. Some notable players in comparison: Josh Allen: 40.7% 1st down % 106.6 passer rating 27 Attempts Aaron Rodgers: 33.3% 1st down % 89.1 passer rating 36 Attempts Patrick Mahomes: 25.6% 1st down % 86.4 passer rating 39 Attempts (Mahomes lead the league last year with a 122.8 rating) Phillip Rivers: 12.5% 1st down % 74.5 passer rating 40 Attempts Stathead: 3rd and 10+ passing statistics Nice post Sammy. Love the detail! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 His 3rd and 10 completions are like any other QBs 3rd and 3. He is just that good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Last Guy on the Bench Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 hours ago, Big Turk said: I literally feel the Bills are going to convert every 3rd down they face no matter how far it is. Allen can easily pick up 20 on any given play it seems. Just scary how good this offense is. Right. It is the exact opposite of how I've felt on 3rd and long for the past 25 years. Shifted from: "Oh well, next drive" to:"We'll probably get this," in 2017 and has never wavered. Josh on 3rd down, Josh in the 4th Quarter, Josh in the Red Zone, Josh down one score . . . all money. He can't win 'em all. But it sure feels like he can sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Last Guy on the Bench said: Right. It is the exact opposite of how I've felt on 3rd and long for the past 25 years. Shifted from: "Oh well, next drive" to:"We'll probably get this," in 2017 and has never wavered. Josh on 3rd down, Josh in the 4th Quarter, Josh in the Red Zone, Josh down one score . . . all money. He can't win 'em all. But it sure feels like he can sometimes. Never mind 3rd and long. We've had other QBs where I knew the drive was over if we got behind the sticks for 2nd down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Realizing that 3rd and more than 5 was a playable down, and not a preamble to a punt, was when I knew the Tyrod days were over and we were onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 When the going gets tough, the Josh get going. times have changed Mafia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: So last year Allen was a top five QB in both passer rating and first down percentage on 3rd and 10+ plays. The one concerning area is that Allen had 44 such attempts on 3rd and 10+, good for the 9th most 3rd and long attempts in the league. Fast forward to 2020 and Allen is still a leader in first down percentage. He is tied with a couple players at 40% (improved from 32% last year). I believe only Derek Carr had a higher first down percentage on 3rd and 10+ than Allen this year. Carr was 41.6%. For passer rating, Allen's 106.6 rating was good enough for 5th highest among all starting QB's. And the attempts plummeted from 44 in 2019 down to only 27 in 2020 which was low enough to rank him tied with Lamar Jackson for second fewest attempts behind Carr's league low 24. So in 2020 we saw the best of both worlds. The Bills and Allen were forced into a league low number of 3rd and 10+ plays. At the same time Allen remained a league leader in first down percentage and passer rating, ranking second and fifth in the league respectively. Some notable players in comparison: Josh Allen: 40.7% 1st down % 106.6 passer rating 27 Attempts Aaron Rodgers: 33.3% 1st down % 89.1 passer rating 36 Attempts Patrick Mahomes: 25.6% 1st down % 86.4 passer rating 39 Attempts (Mahomes lead the league last year with a 122.8 rating) Phillip Rivers: 12.5% 1st down % 74.5 passer rating 40 Attempts Stathead: 3rd and 10+ passing statistics it’s such an unlikely play to keep possession that it’s practically up there with creating a turnover in value 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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