Round 1 Playoff: Colts at Bills - Sat. 1/9 1:05pm

[Steptide]

Just saw Phillip rivers is 4-0 in wild card games. When was the last wild card game he was in? I feel like it was 10 years ago

[Don Dokken]

5 minutes ago, Steptide said:

Just saw Phillip rivers is 4-0 in wild card games. When was the last wild card game he was in? I feel like it was 10 years ago

2018 season, beat the Ravens in Baltimore

[bills6969]

I’m becoming increasingly worried for this game for the following reasons:

 

1) Phil Rivers is 17 year veteran,  he’s been here before,  won’t be phased by the moment. He’ll have that offense prepared for whatever we throw at them.

 

2) All the pressure is on us to win,  how will we handle it?  We know JA is a stud, but how will he handle the pressure of this game if things get tight?  Going back to last years debacle in the playoffs,  we were crushing Houston then Houston woke up and got things going and we folded like a cheap suit.   It’s been a awhile since this team has faced any adversity.  If we struggle early or get behind will the team play tight?

[Steptide]

6 minutes ago, Don Dokken said:

2018 season, beat the Ravens in Baltimore

Wow I totally forgot about that lol. 

4 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

I’m becoming increasingly worried for this game for the following reasons:

 

1) Phil Rivers is 17 year veteran,  he’s been here before,  won’t be phased by the moment. He’ll have that offense prepared for whatever we throw at them.

 

2) All the pressure is on us to win,  how will we handle it?  We know JA is a stud, but how will he handle the pressure of this game if things get tight?  Going back to last years debacle in the playoffs,  we were crushing Houston then Houston woke up and got things going and we folded like a cheap suit.   It’s been a awhile since this team has faced any adversity.  If we struggle early or get behind will the team play tight?

Biggest difference Imo, is the 2020 bills woulda put up 30 in that 1st half against Houston last year. I think we can win this one, but like any game, especially playoffs, anything can happen 

[Amaru523]

I'm not all that worried about this game, this Bills team looks really, really hungry to me, I just have a feeling that they can't be stopped. The letdown last year is the main reason why imo, so I don't see them letting up or taking anyone lightly.

[YoloinOhio]

5 minutes ago, Amaru523 said:

I'm not all that worried about this game, this Bills team looks really, really hungry to me, I just have a feeling that they can't be stopped. The letdown last year is the main reason why imo, so I don't see them letting up or taking anyone lightly.

They never take any opponent lightly. That would not be a reason they lose. They could play poorly and lose, though.  I don’t think the colts are the better team but this is a matchup driven league and there are ways the colts could win for sure. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I can only assume it's the same on offense as it is on defense.  Offense had a plan, they schemed for what they thought they might be seeing.

 

Josh even said in an interview that what they were trying to do wasn't working and Daboll called up a bunch of plays that were Allen's "favorites".  Basically his bread and butter plays.

 

So Chris Simms in his Unbuttoned segment on the Bills said that early on, Daboll was calling plays that were great man-beaters or zone-beaters.  The Dolphins were showing man at the line, then shifting to zone coverage after the snap and the play didn't work as well.  Simms said after the 1Q, they used plays that were maybe not as "killer" against one of the other, but that could be executed well against man or zone.

 

Do you know which interview?  So many now...

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

43 minutes ago, Steptide said:

Just saw Phillip rivers is 4-0 in wild card games. When was the last wild card game he was in? I feel like it was 10 years ago

 

2018.  Beat the Ravens.  That was an ugly, ugly, ugly game.  4 FG in the first half by the Chargers, finally managed a TD in the 4th Q. 

 

Rivers 22-32 for 160 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT.  Ravens gave up an INT, 4 fumbles (2 lost).  Jackson's rookie season and he could not pass very effectively.

 

I'm not sure "Rivers 4-0 in WC games" is exactly the right viewpoint here.

[TylerD]

55 minutes ago, Don Dokken said:

2018 season, beat the Ravens in Baltimore

Rivers had a pretty special year in 2018... It was overlooked because the Chiefs and Ravens were so good.... The chargers had a really good team that year.

[TBBills Fan]

16 hours ago, Like A Mofo said:

 

 

The entire key to me is the Colts OL vs the Buffalo Bills DL: If the Colts OL controls the LOS and pushes us around and controls the clock and wears us down this might be a tough Saturday afternoon. Just keep Taylor in check and make Rivers beat the Bills.

 

As for the offense, give me much of the same we have seen all year, no reason to change from what is working. Turnovers are key, especially in 2nd half

 

 

this is true.  Our D needs to not allow long sustained drives and the trenches is where it begins.  I have faith that our scheme and players will be ready for this

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Good article here on how the Colts might defend Josh. Basically, they’ve had success against Watson and Mahomes with some more exotic blitzes. I hope we are ready for it. The blitzes in the video in the article of Watson are pretty great. 
 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/1/7/22217906/film-room-detailing-how-the-colts-need-to-attack-josh-allen-in-the-passing-game-this-weekend

 

So as I mentioned upthread, Colts DC Matt Eberflaus sounded really pretty unconcerned about Josh Allen, saying that it helped them to have faced Watson.

 

I know that from a high level, they look like similar players - Watson a bit faster 40 time, but I think Josh plays faster than his 40 time - Watson has had a great year as far as passing yards, high TDs, low INTs.  Both have similar rushes and rush YPG.

 

I just can't shake the idea that they aren't really that similar in how they play, but I can't put my finger on why I think that.  Would love other thoughts.

 

As for this article and us being ready for it, I think it's worth noting that the article heavily referenced a team we played, the Seahawks.  Allen said right after the impressive win "I've got a lot of things to clean up...I was sacked too much" or something like that.  This being a Copycat league, I believe we saw elements of those blitzes from AZ, the Chargers, the 49ers, and the Steelers.  Allen was sacked 0,2,1,and 1 times in those games and it's certainly NOT because those teams lack elite pass rushers and sack artists (though it's a fair point that some were out injured when the Bills played some of those teams).

 

The point stands that Allen was sacked less in the remaining 7 games of the season than he was in the Seahawks game, and it wasn't because the Seasnakes dial up more exotic blitzes than the rest of those teams do or disguise them better - quite the contrary.  It was because that game was Allen's "light bulb moment" that he better learn to start checking it down or throwing it away.

 

[TylerD]

54 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

I’m becoming increasingly worried for this game for the following reasons:

 

1) Phil Rivers is 17 year veteran,  he’s been here before,  won’t be phased by the moment. He’ll have that offense prepared for whatever we throw at them.

 

2) All the pressure is on us to win,  how will we handle it?  We know JA is a stud, but how will he handle the pressure of this game if things get tight?  Going back to last years debacle in the playoffs,  we were crushing Houston then Houston woke up and got things going and we folded like a cheap suit.   It’s been a awhile since this team has faced any adversity.  If we struggle early or get behind will the team play tight?

The main thing is the pressure....... I have yet to see anyone in the world other than homer Colts fans like me say we will win lol, and even then we are not expecting a win... just a prayer.... With that said, pressure can do crazy things. It's no mystery as to why Peyton Manning and the Colts won their first ever Super Bowl as a wild card. After dominating the 2005 season, and being one and done to the Steelers, nobody in the right mind thought the Colts would go to the Super Bowl the year after as a wild card team and having to get through the Patriots. I do expect Indy to keep this close at least for 3 quarters as they have with all teams this year, but the 4th quarter is the Colts kryptonite this year and that is where Buffalo may pull away.

 

Buffalo is rolling into the playoffs right now, and Allen looks like the hottest qb in the league... Pressure or not, I think the Bills will come to play. Colts will have to score early and often to keep up in this one. I just can't see the Bills laying an egg in this one, especially with 2 years of playoff experience behind them.

[Paul Costa]

The Bills Offense and the Texans offense are really different. Starting with the O line. Ours is much better. They don’t have Diggs. They traded that guy away. Our overall receiver room with Beasley is much stronger. Let’s call the RB’s & TE’s a push. The other thing the Texans don’t have is a good defense or special teams. All three phases of the Bills work together. To compare Watson & Allen is a small part of this game.

[Nineforty]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So as I mentioned upthread, Colts DC Matt Eberflaus sounded really pretty unconcerned about Josh Allen, saying that it helped them to have faced Watson.

 

I know that from a high level, they look like similar players - Watson a bit faster 40 time, but I think Josh plays faster than his 40 time - Watson has had a great year as far as passing yards, high TDs, low INTs.  Both have similar rushes and rush YPG.

 

I just can't shake the idea that they aren't really that similar in how they play, but I can't put my finger on why I think that.  Would love other thoughts.

 

 

incoming hot take:  Deshaun Watson is the new Matthew Stafford (but with running skills in addition to other skills).  I feel like many lump him in the Elite category, and I'm not there. 

 

-Fantasy football stud maybe skewing some peoples thoughts?

-Bill O'Brien/lack of deep playoff success that isn't all Watson's faults maybe skewing my thoughts too far...

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, bills6969 said:

I’m becoming increasingly worried for this game for the following reasons:

 

1) Phil Rivers is 17 year veteran,  he’s been here before,  won’t be phased by the moment. He’ll have that offense prepared for whatever we throw at them.

 

2) All the pressure is on us to win,  how will we handle it?  We know JA is a stud, but how will he handle the pressure of this game if things get tight?  Going back to last years debacle in the playoffs,  we were crushing Houston then Houston woke up and got things going and we folded like a cheap suit.   It’s been a awhile since this team has faced any adversity.  If we struggle early or get behind will the team play tight?

The Colts are good but they have struggled with half of their schedule. Not all against just good teams either. 

[finn]

I can see this game starting slowly, with neither team making much progress. A punt battle. But the Bills have shown the ability to adjust, such as in the Steelers game. Once they're ahead, it could snowball in the Bills favor. The only way I see the Bills losing is if the pressure on Allen causes him to fumble or force the ball. That, combined with drops and penalties, would allow the Colts to pound Taylor and drain the clock, keeping Allen off the field. 

[wjag]

3 minutes ago, TylerD said:

The main thing is the pressure....... I have yet to see anyone in the world other than homer Colts fans like me say we will win lol, and even then we are not expecting a win... just a prayer.... With that said, pressure can do crazy things. It's no mystery as to why Peyton Manning and the Colts won their first ever Super Bowl as a wild card. After dominating the 2005 season, and being one and done to the Steelers, nobody in the right mind thought the Colts would go to the Super Bowl the year after as a wild card team and having to get through the Patriots. I do expect Indy to keep this close at least for 3 quarters as they have with all teams this year, but the 4th quarter is the Colts kryptonite this year and that is where Buffalo may pull away.

 

Buffalo is rolling into the playoffs right now, and Allen looks like the hottest qb in the league... Pressure or not, I think the Bills will come to play. Colts will have to score early and often to keep up in this one. I just can't see the Bills laying an egg in this one, especially with 2 years of playoff experience behind them.

 

The fact that Indy faced Watson is interesting.  So I went and looked at their most meaningful stats.

 

Game 1:  Colts win 26-20 

Watson: 343 yards passing, 0 TDS

Texans Rushing: <100

TOP: Colts 33m

Rivers: 285 yards, 2 TDs

Taylor: 93 yards rushing, team: 114 yards

Sacks: 5!! (Buckner 2, J Houston 3)

 

Game 2: Colts win 27-20

Watson: 373 yards, 2 TDs

Texans Rushing: <100

TOP: Texans 30.5m

Rivers: 228 yards, 2TDs

Taylor: 83 yards, team: 127 yards

Sacks: 5!! (Buckner 3, Autry 1.5, Lewis: .5)

 

 As I recall, there was also a late fumble in one  of these games near the goal line stopping a late Texans drive.

[Whkfc]

https://youtu.be/mraBfrHIPDU

 

 

i didnt think it deserved its own thread but here is Nick Wrights take on tomorrow's game.

 

 

[Success]

Man, the Colts are really playing up the "no one believes in us" thing.  

 

People are favoring the Bills, for obvious reasons. I haven't seen anyone dismiss their chances.  About half of the pundits I've seen think they can keep it close and have at least a chance at the end.

 

Tough 1st round match-up after 13-3, but it's a tough year in the AFC in general.  The pressure is definitely on the Bills after last year; it almost feels like our 2nd Super Bowl, where we had more to prove because we lost the 1st.  I've seen a lot of people bring up our "meltdown" from last year and how we have to prove we can win in the playoffs.  The Colts are just playing w/ house money.