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The theory of resting/playing your starters in a quasi-meaningless game.


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12 hours ago, Just Jack said:

 

I looked it up, I only went as far back as the 2000 season...

 

2012 Baltimore (Division champ)

2011 Giants (Division champ)

2010 Green Bay (Wild Card)

2007 Giants (Wild Card)

2006 Indianapolis (Division champ)

2005 Pittsburgh (Wild Card)

2000 Baltimore (Wild Card)

 

Interesting how you go several years without the winner playing three playoff games, then bam! Three years in a row where a Wildcard round team made it. 

Good stuff! Thanks for the research. So, 3 in the last 10 years didn’t have a first round bye and none in 7 years. We don’t know which of these may have rested starters in week 17 but likely none of the Wild Card teams. Division winners may have been able to rest though.

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20 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

The 90s Bills and how they approached the Playoffs is not exactly a winning endorsement imo.

What?  
 

They won 4 years of playoffs games to make it to 4 straight Super Bowls.  That is 9 straight playoff wins.  
 

They rested players in three of those four seasons.  Consecutive playoff wins over Miami and Raiders (90); KC and Denver (91); Oilers, Pittsburgh, Miami (92), Raiders and KC (93).   

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5 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

What?  
 

They won 4 years of playoffs games to make it to 4 straight Super Bowls.  That is 9 straight playoff wins.  
 

They rested players in three of those four seasons.  Consecutive playoff wins over Miami and Raiders (90); KC and Denver (91); Oilers, Pittsburgh, Miami (92), Raiders and KC (93).   

9 straight playoff wins?  Sadly no that is not true, that is the entire point.  The  most they had in a row was 3

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Key word in the title is “quasi”. If it’s not completely meaningless, don’t do it. I’m really not a fan of resting starters under any circumstance anyway. Momentum is huge in the NFL, and we’ve seen it with so many Super Bowl runs in recent in years. It’s not always the best team, but the one with the most momentum. 

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10 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

9 straight playoff wins?  Sadly no that is not true, that is the entire point.  The  most they had in a row was 3

You know exactly what I mean.  Nine straight AFC playoff wins is a fact and we rested starters 3 times in those 4 seasons.  
 

The subject is preparation for the playoffs, not preparation for the SB.  In the case of the Super Bowl, our preparation errors are well documented.  

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14 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

You know exactly what I mean.  Nine straight AFC playoff wins is a fact and we rested starters 3 times in those 4 seasons.  
 

The subject is preparation for the playoffs, not preparation for the SB.  In the case of the Super Bowl, our preparation errors are well documented.  

I know what you meant but i disagree, the Super Bowl is the culmination in the playoffs.  Winning playoffs games is relatively meaningless if you dont win the ultimate playoff game.

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13 hours ago, Just Jack said:

 

I looked it up, I only went as far back as the 2000 season...

 

2012 Baltimore (Division champ)

2011 Giants (Division champ)

2010 Green Bay (Wild Card)

2007 Giants (Wild Card)

2006 Indianapolis (Division champ)

2005 Pittsburgh (Wild Card)

2000 Baltimore (Wild Card)

 

Interesting how you go several years without the winner playing three playoff games, then bam! Three years in a row where a Wildcard round team made it. 

Thanks. For those that might be curious, I dug a little deeper on these Super Bowl winners.  Not sure it paints a definitive picture.  I bolded the ones where the win in the last game of the season was not critically needed.  The ones that aren't bolded were where the team HAD to win to get in, so obviously they played their starters.

2012 Baltimore - did not need the win, played starters 1 qtr, lost the game to Cinci

2011 Giants - needed a win to secure division (with a loss they'd be out of the playoffs), beat Dallas

2010 Green Bay - needed a win to secure a wild card spot, beat Chicago

2007 Giants - did not need the win (already locked into 5th seed), played starters anyway (which Coughlin took heat for), lost to the then undefeated Patriots

2006 Colts - needed a win to secure the 3rd seed, played starters, beat Miami

2005 Pittsburgh - needed a win to secure a wild card spot, beat Detroit

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On 12/30/2020 at 2:27 PM, BisonMan said:

Either no starters at all, or just run regular game prep and have them play one series at most.

 

My question on this is: “Which starter, if injured, makes it worth losing him in meaningless game just before the playoffs?”

 

The Bills are very lucky at this point to only have one Day 1 starter out for the playoffs (Cody Ford). My hope is that Beas returns in time. Everybody else could use the rest/rehab.

 

I'm trying to think of a recent Super Bowl champion that didn’t have a week off before their first playoff game. Anybody think the Chiefs will be “rusty” before their first playoff game?

Weren't the chiefs getting dominated by the texans in the first half of their first playoff game last year lol luckily bill o brien went full bill o brien 

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3 hours ago, Georgia Bill said:

Thanks. For those that might be curious, I dug a little deeper on these Super Bowl winners.  Not sure it paints a definitive picture.  I bolded the ones where the win in the last game of the season was not critically needed.  The ones that aren't bolded were where the team HAD to win to get in, so obviously they played their starters.

2012 Baltimore - did not need the win, played starters 1 qtr, lost the game to Cinci

2011 Giants - needed a win to secure division (with a loss they'd be out of the playoffs), beat Dallas

2010 Green Bay - needed a win to secure a wild card spot, beat Chicago

2007 Giants - did not need the win (already locked into 5th seed), played starters anyway (which Coughlin took heat for), lost to the then undefeated Patriots

2006 Colts - needed a win to secure the 3rd seed, played starters, beat Miami

2005 Pittsburgh - needed a win to secure a wild card spot, beat Detroit


The 2007 Giants played their starters when they didn’t have to because old school Coughlin did not want to give the Pats* an undefeated regular season.  The Giants did the right thing and they almost won that game.  
 

Good karma came to them as the Wildcard Giants made it to the SB against the 18-0 Pats* and won to ruin their undefeated season.  
 

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On 12/31/2020 at 3:41 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

That's because it's a meaningless game, obviously.

 

They have the bye locked up.

 

Homefield matters. Especially in the age of Covid and even more so now that Buffalo is allowing up to 6700 fans in the stadium for playoff games.

 

You rest them only if Cleveland is obviously winning against Pittsburgh.

 

And I don't know if anyone has been paying attention to Cleveland right now, but they're a Covid mess. They legitimately might lose to Mason Rudolph.

 

 

Sure home field matters.

 

But much less than going into the  playoffs with few key injuries and not banged up.

 

Sit 'em.

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On 12/31/2020 at 4:30 AM, Gugny said:

Assuming the Steelers will lose is unwise.

 

Secure the 2nd seed.  Play to win the game.

 

 

Your first sentence is dead on. You can't assume the Steelers will lose even while not playing their best.

 

Same with us, though.

 

And the importance of being as healthy and rested as possible for the whole playoffs trumps home field for what will almost certainly be one extra game ... assuming we even win the first playoff game. The focus should be on winning all of them, not worrying where game two will be played.

 

Particularly as we already beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

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15 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I know what you meant but i disagree, the Super Bowl is the culmination in the playoffs.  Winning playoffs games is relatively meaningless if you dont win the ultimate playoff game.

 

 

No it isn't.

 

What the Bills did there was an amazing achievement. It was absolutely not "relatively meaningless." Those were four great years and a great period in franchise history. Yeah, clearly it could have been better, but what they accomplished was still fantastic.

 

And clearly the SB losses didn't have anything to do with whether or not they had rested players in the last week of the regular season. They came into the playoffs all four years ferocious and ready. If only they'd had a Ted Washington type at NT, they'd have racked up an SB win or two.

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If the Browns get their players back given their Covid outbreak, and it becoming public knowledge the Steelers are resting a ton of their talent, we are pretty assured the second seed (not about fans, just if we win twice we delay the Chiefs to the AFCC).

 

With that said, I would consider based on the injuries we’ve faced this year the following either resting or play a series.

 

Allen

Diggs

Brown (if cleared from Covid, Id only want him to play a quarter or a little more, but then sit him.  He just needs to knock the                 rust off if completely healthy)

Singletary (we need one completely healthy so we see Yeldon if cleared and Moss, again if cleared on both)

 

White

Milano

Edmunds

Poyer

 

Again, Beasely, Yeldon, and Brown will probably be out anyway between an injury and Covid IR.

 

i suspect McD will start pulling others as the game goes on either we’re blowing them out or they are blowing us out.  Hopefully the former and we can just run and pound them in the second half.

 

With the Steelers proclaiming they are out on the last game makes the decision that much easier to pull people either completely, or very quickly in the game.  The unknown the trainers and coaches know, not us who is dinged up and could use the rest.  

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Something nobody seems to be talking about, is how the players themselves see this.

 

Now, as competitors, I'm sure they are happy to play, but they are also going to trust whatever McDermott tells them is going to happen.

 

Having said that, I'd be very surprised if they don't want to guarantee home field advantage for as long as possible.

 

One aspect of that might be that the Chiefs stumble, so with two wins, the Bills get home field advantage in the AFC Championship game. Now that's a very different reason for wanting to secure the 2nd seed.

 

As the 2nd seed is only secured if we win, regardless of what happens elsewhere, I think you play your starters, unless any of them (e.g. Beasely) is carrying an injury.

 

You then have the ability to adapt that on  the fly, depending on how things are panning out elsewhere, with the opportunity to pull guys as the game goes on.

 

If the #2 seed had already been locked up, then I would certainly be looking to rest key guys, if not just field as many backups as we could.

 

I'm of the opinion that you control as much of what happens going forward, as you can, and ensuring the #2 seed is part of that 'process'.

 

 

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