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By the percentages - The Bills likely 1st round playoff opponent based on the Miami game


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I think Browns is the most likely. I'm hoping Baltimore and Tennessee face off as the 4 vs 5 also. 

 

Doesn't get any better IMO then Tennessee/Baltimore at KC and Pittsburgh at Buffalo in the Division round if we get that far. 

 

I think Houston can beat Tennessee also. 

 

I think Miami will beat Buffalo because we won't play to win. I think Cleveland beats Pittsburgh. I think Indy beats Jacksonville. 

 

So that would mean Cleveland at Buffalo. And Baltimore at Pittsburgh. Miami plays either Indy or Tennessee. Like I said earlier I think Houston can beat Tennessee. 

 

 

 

 

 

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These are not even close to accurate. These numbers are probably assuming every possible scenario has an equal chance of happening.   If buffalo and pittsburgh lose which they most likely wi

Disclaimer: I know how to copy and paste like a champ!    If the Bills beat Miami in week 17 37.5% chance of playing Miami 25% chance of playing Baltimore 25% chance of p

2 hours ago, loedward22 said:

 

It does seem a safe assumption, but I'd bet money it doesn't happen...

I’d bet money it does. 
Jax will make sure to walk out with a loss against Indy. 
Baltimore will destroy Cincy.

The only wild card is Tennessee, but I think they put away Houston. 
These 3 teams are playing for their lives this weekend. 

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4 hours ago, Playoffs? said:

I’d bet money it does. 
Jax will make sure to walk out with a loss against Indy. 
Baltimore will destroy Cincy.

The only wild card is Tennessee, but I think they put away Houston. 
These 3 teams are playing for their lives this weekend. 

 

I think you’re probably right.  Baltimore is -850, Cleveland is -500, and Indianapolis is -1200.  Put it all together and you get -220 for all of it happening, which is an implied probability of 68.75%   But I’d play the other side because betting on the favorite is not really worth the risk. 

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13 hours ago, Franchiseneedsme said:

Bills need to win to avoid Baltimore. That plus Guaranteeing the 2nd seed makes me believe the Bills will try and win the Miami game outright. Josh won't come out unless he is getting hammered or we are winning handily

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think if Pittsburgh loses we avoid Baltimore no matter what happens in our game..  and I think Pittsburgh is going to mail in their game @ Cleveland.  I'd be very surprised if the Browns don't take advantage and win.

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18 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

Why do ppl insist on playing a division opponent in the playoff's? That is not what you want to hope for, not at all...

The rookie Tua vs the alternatives? I respectfully disagree

 

Not one opponent I would prefer over playing a rookie and its not even close.

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8 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think if Pittsburgh loses we avoid Baltimore no matter what happens in our game..  and I think Pittsburgh is going to mail in their game @ Cleveland.  I'd be very surprised if the Browns don't take advantage and win.

Can't trust the Browns IMO. Bills should play to win.

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3 minutes ago, Figster said:

The rookie Tua vs the alternatives? I respectfully disagree

 

Not one opponent I would prefer over playing a rookie and its not even close.

 

In the playoffs,  Flores would give Tua about a quarter to show he can be productive before pulling the plug and putting in the relief pitcher.  

 

 

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22 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

In the playoffs,  Flores would give Tua about a quarter to show he can be productive before pulling the plug and putting in the relief pitcher.  

 

 

I'll take Fitz over the alternatives and as much respect and admiration as I have for the bearded one , its still not even close.  I think teams like the Browns or Ravens that run the football well are bad weather spoilers waiting to happen. 

 

Tua > Fitz>  over Jackson and Mayfield...

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32 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think if Pittsburgh loses we avoid Baltimore no matter what happens in our game..  and I think Pittsburgh is going to mail in their game @ Cleveland.  I'd be very surprised if the Browns don't take advantage and win.


Correct.  I posted this yesterday. Believe it’s accurate:

 

Thad Brown posted earlier...

 

Assuming BAL, TEN and IND win (which I think are safe assumptions), here’s who our Wildcard weekend opponent would be:

 

PIT W & BUF W - Dolphins 

PIT W & BUF L - Ravens 

PIT L & BUF W - Colts 

PIT L & BUF L - Browns

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2 minutes ago, Playoffs? said:


Correct.  I posted this yesterday. Believe it’s accurate:

 

 

Thad Brown posted earlier...

 

Assuming BAL, TEN and IND win (which I think are safe assumptions), here’s who our Wildcard weekend opponent would be:

 

PIT W & BUF W - Dolphins 

PIT W & BUF L - Ravens 

PIT L & BUF W - Colts 

PIT L & BUF L - Browns

It's going to be a very interesting Sunday with so many moving pieces and this many possible outcomes.

 

There's really no way to know who we might play, which is kind of fun.

 

 

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^ I know the mentality had to be “we’ll beat anyone we play”..... but I’m sure McD has a team he’d much prefer to play.. or not play. Will be interesting to see how he attacks this game, and I’m sure getting up-to-the-second updates during the Steelers game!

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1 minute ago, st pete gogolak said:

So if we beat the Dolphins, we get MIA or IND as well as securing #2 seed.  If we lose we get BALT or CLEV, two of the best running teams in the league.  Holy crap, why wouldn’t we try to win this game?

Kind of what I’m thinking now too...

 

and this is all assuming IND TEN AND BAL all win. 

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18 hours ago, Draconator said:

Disclaimer: I know how to copy and paste like a champ! 

 

If the Bills beat Miami in week 17

  • 37.5% chance of playing Miami
  • 25% chance of playing Baltimore
  • 25% chance of playing Cleveland
  • 6.25% chance of playing Tennessee
  • 6.25% chance of playing Indianapolis

If the Bills lose to Miami in week 17

  • 50% chance of playing Baltimore
  • 25% chance of playing Cleveland
  • 12.5% chance of playing Tennessee
  • 12.5% chance of playing Indianapolis
  • 0% chance of playing Miami

 

But what if they tie Miami?  You left that one out!

 

Not too crazy about either option.  Hate to play Miami two weeks in a row.  Would have liked it much more if Pitt had lost as then we'd basically have a pre-season game plan, while Miami would needed to play full out.  Now though if we play to win, we show Miami alot, if we don't worry much about game and lose, then end up playing Baltimore which not too crazy about either. 

 

So I just went thru "playoff machine" scenarios, I'm assuming both Tenn and Indy win as they're both playing weak teams.

 

If Bills and Pitt both win, Bills still #2 seed and play Miami, Cleveland out of playoffs

 

If Bills and Pitt both lose, Bills still #2 seed and play Cleveland, Indy out of playoffs

 

If Bills win and Pitt loses, Bills still #2 seed and play Indy, Miami out of playoffs

 

If Bills lose and Pitt wins, Bills then #3 seed and play Balt, Cleveland out of playoffs

 

The last option is the one I like the least

 

So it appears in the scenarios above they are assuming Pitt is winning their last game as those are the only way their favored options work out.

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I'll take the scenario where we play Indy.. 

 

- No Browns with Mayfield, Chubb, Hunt going crazy and winning the battle of Lake Erie.  I don't need that

- No Ravens and Lamar improvising all over the field and ball controlling us to death with their run game

- No Miami with Fitz coming off the bench, playing loose and giving us the ultimate gut punch.

 

I have respect for Indy, but there is no one thing they do great, and no one player that scares me. 

 

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