ROCKPILE REVIEW - Rolling

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, Success said:

Great write-up.  Watching Allen to Diggs is an almost transcendent experience as a football fan. They're just locked in.

 

But watching Allen just in general is jaw-dropping at times.  He just keeps getting better - in his accuracy, decision-making, release - all of it.  His ceiling is still out there somewhere.  I think this is a guy who could be in the GOAT conversation before all is said & done.  I know that sounds homer, but he has those intangibles, and the work ethic to make it happen.

 

As for the Bills, it's nice to see them not falling in the same old patterns.  I listened to Bill Simmons' podcast last week, and both he & his guest agreed that every time in the past when the country started talking about the Bills and expectations were high, the team would come out flat and lose.  They predicted that for the Broncos game - and we end up with what can only be called a massive statement game, on national TV, to win the division for the 1st time in a quarter century.

 

Life is good.

 

 

Ex NFL QB Jim Miller and now analyst said the same thing...he said that Allen possesses physical gifts that not even Mahomes has and that he has the potential to be better than even Mahomes does.

 

He says Mahomes might have more guile and off schedule type ability but that Allen is not far behind in that and has more physical tools than Mahomes.

[Big Turk]

32 minutes ago, Magox said:

I have a slightly different take on Allen.  Early on he was throwing a little high and missed Knox when he was rolling out of the pocket, but he quickly cleaned that up.  Aside that and the attempted pass in the front corner of the end zone that was almost picked off he was damn near flawless and his decision making and command of the game is next level.   I though he played an A game.

 

It's to the point where if Allen misses a throw it's a big deal because it happens so infrequently now.  We forget that stuff happens all the time around the NFL.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

Great stuff as always, Shaw.  There were so many great moments to choose from. 

 

The 55 yard bomb to Diggs was so great to see for me for at least two reasons:

 

1. Seems to me that the deep go route throws have been a weakness for Allen.  He's got the crossing stuff down with some ridiculously amazing touch, but the straight-line deep passes have eluded him.  It's gotta be a real challenge when you have the arm like he does and you have to time it so perfectly and just lay it in there with just the right arc on it.  I know he's been working on it and he finally nailed on in a game - AND IT WAS PERFECT!  That's going to get his confidence on those throws really going.  And we know what happens when Allen gets that confidence going.  Holy cow!  Watch out!

 

2. Loved the play call by the coaches on this one so much.  The Bills were up 35 to 13 (!) at this point.  Every, and I mean every, other Bills coach the last 20 years would have shifted into run out the clock mode to start salting the game away.  You know it.  We've seen it for so long.  But not this crew!  They come out and go deep right away?  WHAT?!?!?!   I was literally giggling sitting here watching the game on my phone.  I mean, this team, these coaches, they want to be high powered and they friggin' mean it!  Wow!  Just wow!

 

Anyone else still pinching themselves to be sure we're not dreaming all of this?  I was 21 years old in 1995 and I was so spoiled that I thought for sure when Kelly retired they would find the next QB right away and just keep rolling.  And, as we know, I could not have been more wrong.  But by all appearances, we just might be living the dream right now, folks.  And it's rolling out better than I could have ever imagined.

[Figster]

2 hours ago, scuba guy said:

Wow shaw great post as always

I was to tired to read virgal post but I,guess,it,was really late

Did you just called Virgil a gal?  Whats next, Virgin? Lol, kidding

 

Both reviews are excellent.  These fellas are more accustomed to reporting the birds eye view of the 12th man. All the sights and sounds that go with it . Sometimes even going on the road to do it. Having to refer more now to past experiences and pure writing skills our on board reporters have taken it to the next level.  Along with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

 

Well done OP, and Virgil...

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Figster

[Apocalypse Nuts]

12 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

It's to the point where if Allen misses a throw it's a big deal because it happens so infrequently now.  We forget that stuff happens all the time around the NFL.

And I just had this amazing, comforting feeling last night, that all the mistakes wouldn't really mean much at the end of the game except to keep the score from totally humiliating the Broncos which sort of happened (I guess).  Normally I would either curse or put my head down in my hands when Allen makes a dumb throw that is, or almost, picked off.  That never happened yesterday.  I kept thinking "well that's going to keep the score somewhat respectable for Denver I guess."  It just always felt like the Bills O was in nearly complete control the whole time.  The D stepping us so big like that is just gravy now.

[HomeTeam]

Being able to host two games in January and avoid Kansas City until AFC championship game would be massive. 

 

It's hard not to get ahead of yourself and start day dreaming of being superbowl bound. 

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Shaw? No love for the behind the back Allen handoff for yet another erased touchdown? From your posts I know both you and I have  watched a lot of football in our many years and I don’t recall ever seeing that play. A QB hands the ball off with a no look behind the back using his off hand? I’ve got to wonder how often they’ve practiced that. BRILLIANT! A bit crazy, but still BRILLIANT! 

Yes, it was brilliant.   I've seen it before.   That's the way the classic Statue of Liberty play is run, with the QB holding the ball behind his back for the back to take.   

 

It was beautifully executed, and as someone said somewhere, the holding call was pretty weak, if not non-existent.  

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

He did make a big leap this year, it just wasn't as unlikely as many analysts made it out to be. He's hitting 0-10 yard passes with lethal accuracy right now. That is something he wasn't doing at all his rookie year and too infrequently last year. The pass to Beasley over the middle where he first pump faked the MLB to hold him for half an second, and the pass was accurate enough to give Beasley yards after catch, that is a sign of progress.

As I said, I think the leap was statistical, and it's startling, but I think his skill set is progressing linearly.  That is, I think his improvement from year 2 to year 3 isn't all that different from his improvement from over the summer year 1 to year 2.   He's down to learning and executing little things, like the pass to Beasley.  Being able to do that has big impact on the game, but the actual improvement in his skills to be able to do that is pretty small.  Just learn to recognize the situation and execute.   He's been making those little improvements, lots of them, since he came into the league.  

 

I think what we see is that the cumulative effect of mastering little things like that has some kind of multiplier effect.  He masters that kind of play, and the Bills get more first downs.  More first downs means more plays for the offense and eventually more offense.  That stresses the defense more, and creates other opportunities that Allen already knows how to take advantage of.  

 

My point is, I think he just keeps working and keeps getting better, but the impact on his stats hasn't happened in a straight line.  

 

Also, I think all this stuff about Allen changing his mechanics is way, way overblown.  Yes, apparently he's looked at his mechanics.   But if I recall correctly, over the summer Palmer said all they did was tweaking of mechanics.   I've said all along that Allen has always been an accurate passer, just inconsistent.   He would recognize a situation late and not be in optimal position to make the throw, and he'd be inaccurate.  Next time, same situation, if he recognized the situation more quickly, he'd be right on the money.   I think what they did with him was to get him aware of his mechanics so he understands better how to make the throw correctly even when his body isn't in the right position, but what's really happening is mostly that his recognition of what's going on keeps improving.   He sees the defense better, he understands the routes better, so he isn't surprised.  When he isn't surprised, he's accurate.  Again, these are little, incremental growth items that are having cumulative effect.  

 

I think that's exactly what's going on with his short-yardage accuracy.   He's learned over three years to get away from hero-ball, down the field stuff and accept the short pass as the right decision.   That means he's coming to the short receiver on time, instead of late, and he's prepared to make the throw.  He's prepared not because his mechanics have changed - he's prepared because he has the time to make the throw properly that he's always made when he's prepared.  

 

Finally, there simply is no denying the impact Diggs has had on the passing game.   Diggs and Beasley together in the short game is what the Patriots would have looked like with Welker and Edelman on the field at the same time.   One of those guys is ALWAYS open, and Josh usually knows which one will be open when the play starts.   Josh gets a lot of easy throws, in position, in rhythm, because those guys are so good.   And, of course, because those guys are so good, Davis and Knox get open more.   

 

The amazing thing to me, and to a lot of people, is that Josh is still learning.  I've said all along that we aren't going to be seeing the full-blown Josh for another year or two.   And that's why he could end up being better than Mahomes.   Josh is on his way to being Aaron Rodgers in Cam Newton's body.  

[Paul Costa]

I remember saying to my wife after the Arizona game that the way we lost this might be the best thing that happened to this team. The NFL is so fragile and the games are so close and we have come back from that game with 3 wins by at least 2 scores. Seems  like the team is playing with purpose. All 3 facets are playing at a high level. 

[scuba guy]

4 hours ago, Figster said:

Did you just called Virgil a gal?  Whats next, Virgin? Lol, kidding

 

Both reviews are excellent.  These fellas are more accustomed to reporting the birds eye view of the 12th man. All the sights and sounds that go with it . Sometimes even going on the road to do it. Having to refer more now to past experiences and pure writing skills our on board reporters have taken it to the next level.  Along with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

 

Well done OP, and Virgil...

 

 

 

Auto correct typed it in right

My bad

[Halloween Land]

I think it was one of Allen's best games but whatever...

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Halloween Land said:

I think it was one of Allen's best games but whatever...

He had five games this season with a higher passer rating.  By that measure, it was sort of an average game.  

 

There  are many measures of Josh's greatness.  This game is one of those.  If Fitz or Tyrod had that game, we'd be excited about it.  Josh has it, and it's just an average game.  After all, he didn't even complete 80% of his passes!   Only two TD passes!   

 

The guy is amazing.  His average games are excellent.  

[Cash]

Great write up as always! Only thing I disagree on:

13 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

What’s important about the remaining games?  Well, there’s symbolic importance at Foxboro next week.  McDermott and the Bills don’t care about symbolic importance, but the fans do.

 

I think McD and Beane ABSOLUTELY care, and probably the players do, too. McD has never beaten Belichick before this year. His and Beane’s off season comments always brought it back to beating the Patriots. It’s definitely much lower on their list than playoff seeding, but I’m sure it means quite a bit more to them than it would against some other 6-8 team. 

[billspro]

This team is playoff ready

[NickelCity]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As I said, I think the leap was statistical, and it's startling, but I think his skill set is progressing linearly.  That is, I think his improvement from year 2 to year 3 isn't all that different from his improvement from over the summer year 1 to year 2.   He's down to learning and executing little things, like the pass to Beasley.  Being able to do that has big impact on the game, but the actual improvement in his skills to be able to do that is pretty small.  Just learn to recognize the situation and execute.   He's been making those little improvements, lots of them, since he came into the league.  

 

I think what we see is that the cumulative effect of mastering little things like that has some kind of multiplier effect.  He masters that kind of play, and the Bills get more first downs.  More first downs means more plays for the offense and eventually more offense.  That stresses the defense more, and creates other opportunities that Allen already knows how to take advantage of.  

 

My point is, I think he just keeps working and keeps getting better, but the impact on his stats hasn't happened in a straight line.  

 

Also, I think all this stuff about Allen changing his mechanics is way, way overblown.  Yes, apparently he's looked at his mechanics.   But if I recall correctly, over the summer Palmer said all they did was tweaking of mechanics.   I've said all along that Allen has always been an accurate passer, just inconsistent.   He would recognize a situation late and not be in optimal position to make the throw, and he'd be inaccurate.  Next time, same situation, if he recognized the situation more quickly, he'd be right on the money.   I think what they did with him was to get him aware of his mechanics so he understands better how to make the throw correctly even when his body isn't in the right position, but what's really happening is mostly that his recognition of what's going on keeps improving.   He sees the defense better, he understands the routes better, so he isn't surprised.  When he isn't surprised, he's accurate.  Again, these are little, incremental growth items that are having cumulative effect.  

 

I think that's exactly what's going on with his short-yardage accuracy.   He's learned over three years to get away from hero-ball, down the field stuff and accept the short pass as the right decision.   That means he's coming to the short receiver on time, instead of late, and he's prepared to make the throw.  He's prepared not because his mechanics have changed - he's prepared because he has the time to make the throw properly that he's always made when he's prepared.  

 

Finally, there simply is no denying the impact Diggs has had on the passing game.   Diggs and Beasley together in the short game is what the Patriots would have looked like with Welker and Edelman on the field at the same time.   One of those guys is ALWAYS open, and Josh usually knows which one will be open when the play starts.   Josh gets a lot of easy throws, in position, in rhythm, because those guys are so good.   And, of course, because those guys are so good, Davis and Knox get open more.   

 

The amazing thing to me, and to a lot of people, is that Josh is still learning.  I've said all along that we aren't going to be seeing the full-blown Josh for another year or two.   And that's why he could end up being better than Mahomes.   Josh is on his way to being Aaron Rodgers in Cam Newton's body.  

 

Flawless. My thoughts exactly but much better articulated. Thanks for taking the time to type it up.

[freddyjj]

@Shaw66 another great summary my friend. I agree with your assessment that Josh is still on an ascending developmental path.  In the short term getting John Brown back will be the next ratchet up - hopefully by the playoffs. 

 

Can Daboll get the RB / TE screen game going to combat the pressure packages Josh will likely see in playoffs?   The Pats and Fins may be good tests in this regard as both teams have shown these pressure packages. 

[PrimeTime101]

20 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Exactly right.   We've been living with it for three years now, living with the feeling that he can go off at any time.  First and goal from 30, I thought the Bills were going to get the touchdown.  Two plays later, Kumerow scored.   Not since Jim Kelly did any of us expect the Bills to get seven on first and goal from thirty.   In fact, we were just hoping the Bills didn't lose any more yards and miss the field goal opportunity.  

 

Allen is amazing.

 

I have to say, though, that I'm tired of all the announcers talking about this enormous leap he's made this year.   The only enormous leap has been in the stats.   He was amazing as a rookie, and he was amazing in 2019.  He's been learning every week and at least for me, there is nothing surprising this season.   He's doing what I expected.   At the beginning of the season I said it would be this season or next season that he'd be a serious top-10 QB.   The acquisition of Diggs made it happen sooner rather than later.  

Those of us who are old enough, that have seen talented QB's play for Buffalo saw how good Josh was asap "he passed the eye test" for us. for people 30 years old or younger.. they likely have not. What Josh Allen brings is this amazing story of how the heck could a QB be taught or learn accuracy? The problem is we older fans new the problem wasn't just Josh being a rookie or first year guy. The problem was the pieces were not all there and didn't have a year on the bench to learn.

 

BUT.. It is a story.. and us as humans are suckers for a good story. In some books the first few pages isn't explained till you reach page 10-15. That's where Josh is at. He has now explained the first pages.. I can not wait to see how this book ends.

[timekills17]

22 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 Weaving through would-be tacklers like a cross between Barry Sanders and a couch potato

 

Every week you have one or two quotes that make me spit up my drink.

 

As funny as that one was, I think a more accurate cross would be between Barry Sanders and a rhinoceros.

 

In all seriousness, he might be a good choice for a 3-yard gotta have it TD. He's big and could get low, bend, and make the one cut to the hole needed for that play that's just a bit too long for a QB sneak.

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Those of us who are old enough, that have seen talented QB's play for Buffalo saw how good Josh was asap "he passed the eye test" for us. for people 30 years old or younger.. they likely have not. What Josh Allen brings is this amazing story of how the heck could a QB be taught or learn accuracy? The problem is we older fans new the problem wasn't just Josh being a rookie or first year guy. The problem was the pieces were not all there and didn't have a year on the bench to learn.

 

BUT.. It is a story.. and us as humans are suckers for a good story. In some books the first few pages isn't explained till you reach page 10-15. That's where Josh is at. He has now explained the first pages.. I can not wait to see how this book ends.

I like this.  I think we do see some things when we are older. 

 

I will say this about th we announcers.  I think part of their falling for this mechanics stuff is they just don't do their homework.  They weren't paying attention last year to what Josh was, and now this year they feel a need to explain why they didn't see it last year.  The great jeap forward is a better explanation than "I didnt know what was going on."

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I like this.  I think we do see some things when we are older. 

 

I will say this about the announcers.  I think part of their falling for this mechanics stuff is they just don't do their homework.  They weren't paying attention last year to what Josh was, and now this year they feel a need to explain why they didn't see it last year.  The great leap forward is a better explanation than "I didn't know what was going on."

not just a better explanation. its an easy one to tell.