Next Gen Stats: Compelling figures for top MVP candidates (Allen Included)

[MJS]

Here's an article on NFL.com that compares the next gen stats of some of the top MVP candidates. They specifically mention "EPA" as a leading indicator of who will win the MVP award:

 

"In every season of the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016), the leader in total pass expected points added (EPA) has won the MVP award: Matt Ryan (+184.0) won in 2016, Tom Brady (+132.9) won in 2017, Patrick Mahomes (+195.1) won in 2018 and Lamar Jackson (+132.9) won last season. Entering Week 15, the 2020 MVP race had seemingly narrowed down to two candidates -- and the field mirrors the leaders in total pass EPA. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+163.7 pass EPA) and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (+151.3 pass EPA) are comfortably ahead of everyone else -- the next-closest is Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+89.0)."

...

Josh Allen

Pass EPA: +89.0 (3rd)

Rushing 1st Downs: 35 (4th for QB's)

 

"Allen is in the midst of a true breakout season, leading the Bills to the brink of their first AFC East title since 1995. He's currently third in the NFL with +89.0 pass EPA after having -70.3 (third-worst) and -33.4 (12th-worst) in 2018 and 2019, respectively. It's clear that Allen has made big strides playing the QB position in each of his three seasons. He's declined his deep-pass percentage (10.0% in 2020) and air yards per attempt (8.4 in 2020) in both seasons since his rookie year. He's also improved his downfield passing accuracy and production in each season. His completion percentage over expectation on passes of 10-plus yards in the air has risen from -10.5% to -2.9% to +7.6% from 2018 to 2020, while his yards per attempt has gone from 8.2 to 9.4 to 11.1 in that span. Allen has also improved his touch when on the move. His +4.3 completion percentage over expectation when passing on the run (moving 8-plus MPH) is sixth-best in the NFL; in 2018 and 2019, Allen ranked second-worst. Allen's improved passing on the run allows him to take full advantage of his athleticism and couples well with his rushing ability. On the year, Allen has 350 rushing yards (eighth among QBs), six rushing TDs (tied for third) and 35 rushing first downs (fourth). Allen's athleticism, paired with his vastly improved feel for the QB position and accuracy throwing the ball, have the Bills looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender." ~ Matt Durisko/Associated Press

 

https://www.nfl.com/photos/next-gen-stats-compelling-figures-for-top-mvp-candidates#b2db149e-9b54-4d32-bd22-5a853c5ef2aa

 

[dlonce]

Does anyone know what the actual formula is? 

When I hear the word “expected” it sounds subjective. It’s another PFF let’s make ***** up as we go farse

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, dlonce said:

Does anyone know what the actual formula is? 

When I hear the word “expected” it sounds subjective. It’s another PFF let’s make ***** up as we go farse

Here's what I found:

 

"Expected Points Added (EPA) is a football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points(EP) of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play."

 

So they somehow have calculated what the expected points would be for every situation on the field and then measure that against what actually happens. It's a strange metric, but it does not seem subjective.

[Don Otreply]

Nice, imagine what he will be doing in future years now that he has gotten the hang of what he is supposed to be doing, I suspect he will continue to improve and be in contention for some time to come. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[Inigo Montoya]

Remember anxiously awaiting the start of this season and thinking that the Bills would go as far this year as Josh Allen could take them, and hoping Josh would take another step forward in his development this year?    Imagine if someone would have told you then that heading into Week 15 of the season Josh Allen would be third in the MVP conversation?  

[scuba guy]

I think what it really shows is that he Allen has worked his butt off to get better. Know granted the press are very limited this year on coverage at practice and the limited training camp.  So we can't say for sure is josh and his receivers staying longer at practice throwing extra balls maybe snow balls for sure butt whatever he has done it has really paid dividends

 

Fyi at the beginning of the year someone put up what Josh's stat lines would look like this year and there were member's that said it would be great to see 4000 yards and 40 tds i do not think really any poster really believed he could do that

 

Maybe hapless he is a good stat guy could show a post with those numbers and see who is the closest to actuall

[TBBills]

The MVP is between Mahomes and Rodgers.

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, TBBills said:

The MVP is between Mahomes and Rodgers.

For now.

[PrimeTime101]

16 minutes ago, MJS said:

For now.

 

IT will take something big to happen for one of them not to get it.. For Mahomes its simple .. another 3 int game where he looks bad for most of the game. For Rodgers it would take something more.. like a Injury.. none of us want that to happen.. sorry I'm a realist. 

[dlonce]

20 minutes ago, MJS said:

Here's what I found:

 

"Expected Points Added (EPA) is a football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points(EP) of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play."

 

So they somehow have calculated what the expected points would be for every situation on the field and then measure that against what actually happens. It's a strange metric, but it does not seem subjective.

Thank you. I’d love to see those point values along with the field position, expected or unexpected.

 

It sure looks as though the league has lost what actual meaning of MVP is. Until they actually show everyone how they calculate plays then it’s open to criticism. I do not believe Mahomes numbers. Correlating points based upon long pass plays to some chart isn’t what an MVP is. 

[MJS]

20 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

 

IT will take something big to happen for one of them not to get it.. For Mahomes its simple .. another 3 int game where he looks bad for most of the game. For Rodgers it would take something more.. like a Injury.. none of us want that to happen.. sorry I'm a realist. 

Sounds like you are a witch with a crystal ball. Just have to see how it plays out, stranger.

17 minutes ago, dlonce said:

Thank you. I’d love to see those point values along with the field position, expected or unexpected.

 

It sure looks as though the league has lost what actual meaning of MVP is. Until they actually show everyone how they calculate plays then it’s open to criticism. I do not believe Mahomes numbers. Correlating points based upon long pass plays to some chart isn’t what an MVP is. 

They aren't picking him to be the MVP. They are just saying that the past 4 MVP's also happened to lead in this particular metric.

 

Admittedly, it's a pretty small sample since they only go back to 2016. I would say Rodgers has the leg up this year and he doesn't lead. But there are still games left to play.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

 

IT will take something big to happen for one of them not to get it.. For Mahomes its simple .. another 3 int game where he looks bad for most of the game. For Rodgers it would take something more.. like a Injury.. none of us want that to happen.. sorry I'm a realist. 

 

12:2  TD:INT ratio or better for Allen to end the season and 3-0 and I think Allen would win it. But as you said, that would be something big, if not huge. I wonder if 10:2 could get it done. That would actually be somewhat realistic if Allen is able to add 4 tomorrow.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

The thing that hurts Allen the most right now is the Hail Murray. If the Bills and Allen were 11-2 they would have a legitimate shot at the #1 seed depending on what the Saints can do this weekend or even if the Chargers and Herbert can upset them week 17. The MVP has always been 45% stats, 45% team record/seeding and 10 % story line. Mahomes pretty much has no story line this year. Allen has a great story line. But Mahomes has the better record and stats. Rodgers has all three but a lot of people are also starting to realizing the Packers haven't beaten any winning teams. They are feasting on bad teams.

 

Allen can also hope that Rodgers and Mahomes split 65 percent of the vote and Allen edges them out by picking up 35% of the vote. But I think we would could see a record number of vote getters this year. Both Henry and Wilson will likely get some votes too.

[MJS]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The thing that hurts Allen the most right now is the Hail Murray. If the Bills and Allen were 11-2 they would have a legitimate shot at the #1 seed depending on what the Saints can do this weekend or even if the Chargers and Herbert can upset them week 17. The MVP has always been 45% stats, 45% team record/seeding and 10 % story line. Mahomes pretty much has no story line this year. Allen has a great story line. But Mahomes has the better record and stats. Rodgers has all three but a lot of people are also starting to realizing the Packers haven't beaten any winning teams. They are feasting on bad teams.

 

Allen can also hope that Rodgers and Mahomes split 65 percent of the vote and Allen edges them out by picking up 35% of the vote. But I think we would could see a record number of vote getters this year. Both Henry and Wilson will likely get some votes too.

 

I would even say storyline is a bigger portion than that, but yeah, you need all three. You need mind numbing stats, you need to have one of the top 2 regular W/L season records, and you need that amazing storyline.

[LABILLBACKER]

16 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

12:2  TD:INT ratio or better for Allen to end the season and 3-0 and I think Allen would win it. But as you said, that would be something big, if not huge. I wonder if 10:2 could get it done. That would actually be somewhat realistic if Allen is able to add 4 tomorrow.

He might get 4 tomorrow but he's not getting 4 against NE or Mia.

[Kwai San]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Remember anxiously awaiting the start of this season and thinking that the Bills would go as far this year as Josh Allen could take them, and hoping Josh would take another step forward in his development this year?    Imagine if someone would have told you then that heading into Week 15 of the season Josh Allen would be third in the MVP conversation?  

 

I woulda told them what ever you are drinking I will have a double!!!  Not that I didn't think he would improve......but to this level???  Insane!

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Sounds like you are a witch with a crystal ball. Just have to see how it plays out, stranger.

give my an effing break with that crystal ball stuff... I was just giving you my opinion and if you don't like it then go fly a kite.. My OPINION My RIGHT to one

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

give my an effing break with that crystal ball stuff... I was just giving you my opinion and if you don't like it then go fly a kite.. My OPINION My RIGHT to one

MY opinion is that you are a witch who knows the future. Am I not entitled to my opinion?

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

MY opinion is that you are a witch who knows the future. Am I not entitled to my opinion?

no Not when your telling me its crystal ball stuff with that kind of sarcasm.. It wasn't crystal ball stuff.. Its what I would feel what it would take for Josh to get MVP and I didn't say it was going to happen like that. Ignorant quotes get ignorant responses.  sorry if i'm wrong its just how it looked to me.. moving on..

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

He might get 4 tomorrow but he's not getting 4 against NE or Mia.

 

He got 4 the first game against Miami...he tends to light them up. We are not a good matchup for them...they like playing man coverage a lot and Allen both can burn man with his arm and with his legs when they turn to run with their receviers.