YoloinOhio Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 (edited) Edited December 2, 2020 by YoloinOhio 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo44 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: So when they should go for it, they kick and it works out... I think that’s what this means I think there’s an oxymoron in there somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillies Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 (edited) Yay! We punted! Or is this FGs? Still... Edited December 2, 2020 by BuffaloBillies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 36 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: So when they should go for it, they kick and it works out... I think that’s what this means The opposite. When they should go for it, they do. Saints cost themselves most in the NFL by kicking it when they shouldn't. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Cool. Presumably the Bills are making good use of analytics. One of the things Josh Allen usually does well is the QB sneak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I think you have this backwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, FireChans said: The opposite. When they should go for it, they do. Saints cost themselves most in the NFL by kicking it when they shouldn't. Yeah, this. Not surprising, really. Look at how many 4th and ones we've seen an Allen sneak be successful. Look at the top of the chart, "Expected win probability lost by kicking in go situations." Edited December 2, 2020 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessTruster Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Interesting (i guess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finn Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Are we sure "kicking" means punting? Maybe it means kicking the field goal instead. At least this season, I don't recall lamenting a punt at the 35-yard line or whatever, but Bass has attempted some very long field goals--and made most of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 What an obscure statistic! Come on Man. The WINLESS Jets are #4 in the league. This statistic appears to have next to nothing to do with a team’s ultimate success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bray Wyatt Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 John Harbaugh, Sean McD, and Ron Rivera at the tops, all who were a part of Andy Reid's tree iirc, and then theres Andy at 6 himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumpsuit Jim Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 So being at the extreme end of a graph is either a good thing or a bad thing which has either a major impact or a minor impact on the outcome of a game. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 (edited) I think a few who have responded are misunderstanding this graph. Basically, it means the Bills’ 4th down decision making — when to kick, when to go for it — is excellent. This absolutely IS an important statistic. It speaks to the evolution and adaptability of coach McDermott, who has often been criticized for game day decision making. This graph — like the Bills becoming one of the pass happiest teams in the league — shows that McDermott has improved in multiple areas, embraces analytics, and is one of the sharpest, most “modern” coaches in the NFL. *edit: to that end, the thread title is maybe slightly misleading? Edited December 2, 2020 by Logic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jumpsuit Jim said: So being at the extreme end of a graph is either a good thing or a bad thing which has either a major impact or a minor impact on the outcome of a game. Got it. Graph-shaming dude, really, in 2020? I think it’s pretty obvious what the graph reveals about....football...and teams that play football..professionally...vis a vis fourth down situational analytics. In summary, algorithms. Don’t bother asking me to explain further, I’m pretty upset right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 10 hours ago, YoloinOhio said: So when they should go for it, they kick and it works out... I think that’s what this means No what it says is the Bills are best at making decisions to go for it when they should and kick when they should based on his statistical models. This is a good thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, matter2003 said: No what it says is the Bills are best at making decisions to go for it when they should and kick when they should based on his statistical models. This is a good thing. So I’m guessing that the Jets are so bad that the right decision is simply to punt on pretty much EVERY fourth down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 9 hours ago, GoBills808 said: I think you have this backwards In what way 36 minutes ago, Logic said: I think a few who have responded are misunderstanding this graph. Basically, it means the Bills’ 4th down decision making — when to kick, when to go for it — is excellent. This absolutely IS an important statistic. It speaks to the evolution and adaptability of coach McDermott, who has often been criticized for game day decision making. This graph — like the Bills becoming one of the pass happiest teams in the league — shows that McDermott has improved in multiple areas, embraces analytics, and is one of the sharpest, most “modern” coaches in the NFL. *edit: to that end, the thread title is maybe slightly misleading? Yes I’m sure it’s misleading Because the stat is confusing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: In what way The graph illustrates that the Bills aren’t costing themselves by kicking when they should be going for it on 4th down instead. It does NOT illustrate that they are kicking when they should be going for it, which is what the thread title indicates. Basically, the graph measures how good the 4th down decision making for each team is. The Bills are great at it. That’s it. *edit: it’s admittedly a strangely worded and somewhat confusing Tweet. Edited December 2, 2020 by Logic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Logic said: The graph illustrates that the Bills aren’t costing themselves by kicking when they should be going for it on 4th down instead. It does NOT illustrate that they are kicking when they should be going for it, which is what the threat title indicates. Basically, the graph measures how good the 4th down decision making for each team is. The Bills are great at it. That’s it. I just went by what the tweet said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Great stat, The Bills should be favored by 14 this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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