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2021 NFL salary cap conundrum: Three major consequences of projected decrease


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3 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Good idea other than we score more points and are much more dangerous with Brown. Like Davis. Has to be way better options to move out then Brown, yikes!!!

 

If Brown could stay on the field, I'd agree, but his career dating back to the Cardinals has been injury plagued.  We finally have a regime that doesn't get sentimentally tied to every player in the locker room. Either be on the field and perform, otherwise next man up. Us fans should get used to this positive change in philosophy.

 

A speedster in this year's upcoming draft will be made to replace Brown.

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8 hours ago, TroutDog said:


This defeats the entire point of a salary cap. Not all teams have Pegula’s and Jones’ as owners. The cap will have to come down, it’s straight forward economics. 

 

No necessarily, one thing I've read is they may average the 2021 and 2022 caps and use that number in 2021, That would again then be the 2022 base plus any of the normal gains from year to year that tends to boost it a few million more than projected the year prior.  Considering in 2022 the new TV deals should be done, that few million gain could be come a huge gain that could push it higher than todays 2022 projected.

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8 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

No necessarily, one thing I've read is they may average the 2021 and 2022 caps and use that number in 2021, That would again then be the 2022 base plus any of the normal gains from year to year that tends to boost it a few million more than projected the year prior.  Considering in 2022 the new TV deals should be done, that few million gain could be come a huge gain that could push it higher than todays 2022 projected.


That is at least somewhat reasonable instead of randomly increasing the cap. Franchise owners will rightfully, in my opinion, raise cane about this. As I mentioned, some of them have much deeper pockets than others (we, fortunately, have one of those owners). 
 

I like and appreciate the parity the cap has created. I’m hoping they keep things true to the formula that got them there. 

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4 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

I just can't see ot dropping that much...unless they get players to accept 90% of their salaries or something for next year to avoid a huge number of cap casualties and low contracts in FA.

 

The players may be smarter to accept 90% of their salaries versus have a huge number of players get cut and then have no money to sign them.

 

First let me say that your comments in this thread are probably closer what the reality will be going forward than most.

 

As to all the comments about "borrowing" money from future years to use today as something stupid........ it's not so.

Corporation due this every single day of the year, year over year.  Has anyone ever heard of "Corporate Bonds"?

That's borrowing money today for use today that will be payed back in the future.

 

The NFL is not going to go into negotiations with the NFLPA until this season is finished.

When the season is done the numbers will be crunched and a couple of plans will be up for a vote by both the owners and players.

 

I for one will "go out on the limb" and say IF the current 2020 season is played in it's entirety the cap will be above the 175 projected floor for 2021!

What it will be is dependent on a lot of factors but this is a lucrative business.  The money "borrowed" will be by the league not individual teams.

IF the players take a "Cut" it will be in reduced future raises that was agreed to in this years CBA.  I doubt any current cuts in pay will happen.

 

The NFL is a business that has a AAA rating in money that it would borrow and is as secure as any corporation in America in the coming 5 years!

They have a lot of options.

 

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3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

I am shocked they didn't ask for concessions from players...in the long run they are the ones getting screwed in all of this...the stars will get paid its the guys on mid term contracts and vet minimum contracts that will end up bearing the brunt of it.

 

And flat percentage of salary as some have suggested will hurt those players more - stars have a lot of money in bonuses.

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They'll borrow from future caps. A cut of any kind would be draconian, and would lead to a lot of vets with a few good years left, out in the cold. I mean just guys CURRENTLY on rosters with agreed upon contracts won't survive because suddenly teams that planned it out rather carefully, can't afford to keep him on the roster.  There's also going to be huge dead cap issues. 

 

It's too bonkers to ever think they'll cut or even keep it as is

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10 hours ago, TroutDog said:


This defeats the entire point of a salary cap. Not all teams have Pegula’s and Jones’ as owners. The cap will have to come down, it’s straight forward economics. 

 

The TV contract covers the cap +50 or 60M. By my (remedial) math the only reason to drop the cap is to maintain GP, not necessarily to keep teams out of the red. I do not see how this is an "owners don't have enough money to stay in the black, decrease the cap" issue. It is a margin decision between being in the black and being further into the black. 

Edited by Mango
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12 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

The TV contract covers the cap +50 or 60M. By my (remedial math) the only reason to drop the cap is to maintain GP, not necessarily to keep teams out of the red. I do not see how this is an "owners don't have enough money to stay in the black, decrease the cap" issue. It is a margin decision between being in the black and being further into the black. 


Do you know their operating capital? If one team has untold millions and the lower end has few millions, it’s a drastic difference.
 

See MLB: exactly what the Yankees did. Not to mention, covering the cap is only one aspect. Other costs, required changes to personnel, stadium, uniforms, advertising, etc? That doesn’t even touch the owners who squeaked in and need to pay themselves. 

 

Look, if you think all will be well, that’s A-ok with me. I believe it will disrupt the system and I don’t want that. 

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All three of those will hold true, depending on what the owners decide to do. The owners are the league, and if they don’t want to cut it back they won’t. It is more of a ploy to gain more control over the money. Don’t fool yourselves,  The league/ owners have ample cash to ride this out for a couple years. 

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14 minutes ago, TroutDog said:


Do you know their operating capital? If one team has untold millions and the lower end has few millions, it’s a drastic difference.
 

See MLB: exactly what the Yankees did. Not to mention, covering the cap is only one aspect. Other costs, required changes to personnel, stadium, uniforms, advertising, etc? That doesn’t even touch the owners who squeaked in and need to pay themselves. 

 

Look, if you think all will be well, that’s A-ok with me. I believe it will disrupt the system and I don’t want that. 

 

I agree with you that I do not want it to disrupt the system, and it very well may. But I think it is because owners want to keep net profits as high as possible not because it is to keep them in the black. 

According to Yahoo only one team had an operating income lower than the net in TV contract to salary cap. 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/rich-every-nfl-team-090000298.html


Average operating income across the league, per statista, is $100M. 
https://www.statista.com/statistics/193482/nfl-franchises-average-operating-income-since-2005/

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4 hours ago, Jobot said:

 

If Brown could stay on the field, I'd agree, but his career dating back to the Cardinals has been injury plagued.  We finally have a regime that doesn't get sentimentally tied to every player in the locker room. Either be on the field and perform, otherwise next man up. Us fans should get used to this positive change in philosophy.

 

A speedster in this year's upcoming draft will be made to replace Brown.

Sounds good on paper. Brown makes this team significantly more dangerous. I’m fine with man up as long as the next guy can produce similar results. WR drafting is challenging. We hit on Davis, looks like Seahawks got a pretty good late 2nd with 14😂. But not sure that we release Brown with no proven replacement. And if it’s about salary cap $, I can’t imagine that Brown is the first place to start ?

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12 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Sounds good on paper. Brown makes this team significantly more dangerous. I’m fine with man up as long as the next guy can produce similar results. WR drafting is challenging. We hit on Davis, looks like Seahawks got a pretty good late 2nd with 14😂. But not sure that we release Brown with no proven replacement. And if it’s about salary cap $, I can’t imagine that Brown is the first place to start ?

 

Totally agreed, it just wouldn't shock me if it happened with the salary cap decrease next year.

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