The Bills and Patrick Mahomes

[Ethan in Cleveland]

None of this matters. Mahomes has Reid and multiple elite skill players. The Bills did not. You really think Denison and Lee Smith and a bunch of street free agent wrs would have allowed Mahomes to perform at the same level he has in KC.

 

[prissythecat]

If only Pegula had listened to JeffisMagic or Billsareback

[dave mcbride]

19 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Thinking back to the day Mahomes had a lot of supposed negatives.  Played in the spread all the time, concerns about footwork, and such.  With very very few exceptions no one foresaw how good he would be.  And now in hindsight you have all these folks saying they knew he’d be the bomb.

 

Kind of similar to Josh.  How many people blasted him when he came out, inaccurate, small college pedigree, etc. and now hail him as a savior of the franchise?

 

I wanted Watson in the Mahomes draft.  But as it turns out I’m happy we got Josh and Tre.

Actually, two of the best offensive minds ever — Andy Reid and Sean Payton — both saw him as one of the greatest prospects to come along in years and were quite confident in their opinion. The fact that the Todd McShays of the world had doubts about him is utterly meaningless given what Reid and Payton thought (I can’t stand it when people say that there was no consensus about him and that he was an unknown quantity.) The Chiefs traded up to 10 because they knew the Saints would take him. 
 

‘And the Saints, particularly Payton, were high on Mahomes' potential. They graded him higher than any quarterback they'd evaluated in recent drafts. So much so that they would seriously consider taking him with the No. 11 overall pick. It was the first time the Saints had come close to taking a quarterback so high in the draft during Payton's coaching tenure.’

https://www.nola.com/sports/saints/article_654a281d-df32-5e39-a000-164211140b18.html

 

One final note: the worst “important” team ever when it comes to evaluating QBs -- the Chicago Bears — has far more to answer for than the Bills.

Edited November 26, 2020 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

None of this matters. Mahomes has Reid and multiple elite skill players. The Bills did not. You really think Denison and Lee Smith and a bunch of street free agent wrs would have allowed Mahomes to perform at the same level he has in KC.

 

 

 

The attempt to diminish what Mahomes done by over-hyping what the Chiefs had to offer.....and essentially talking down the Bills organization......is pretty absurd.    

 

Andy Reid was a good head coach with a very long history of choking in the playoffs.........and a passing game genius he was not...........most of his Philly teams and early KC teams were successful primarily because of defense.  One of his Chiefs teams was the only team in modern NFL history to go an entire season without a WR scoring a TD.

 

So it's not like Mahomes lucked into Bill Walsh or Don Coryell as a HC.

 

And as for the "elite skill players".............they didn't look so elite when a cut and paste Buffalo defense went into KC in 2017 and shut them down when the Chiefs just had "very good" QB Alex Smith at the helm.    And that team had Kelce and Hill in their primes and even had the NFL's leading rusher in Kareem Hunt.   They went out to get Sammy Watkins because the overwhelming opinion was that they just didn't have enough playmakers.

 

The reality is that Mahomes elevated EVERYTHING in that franchise..........he took very good players in Kelce and Hill and opened up the entire field for them..........he makes throws to both of them that nobody else can and often into windows that don't exist anywhere else.

 

Mahomes' gift is the ability to make every throw that any NFL QB has ever made from every platform it's ever been made from.    He's a compilation of all the best passers before him.  That simply isn't as dependent on the weaponry as you think.   The Chiefs are wise to keep his cupboard stocked.........but he was going to be great anywhere. 

 

As good as Josh Allen is now..........he simply hasn't been able to make all of those throws.

 

So how GREAT would Allen be if he could get the ball over the top of the defense and deliver long bombs like handoff's like Mahomes?  How GREAT would John Brown and Stefon Diggs look if defenses had to seriously respect the nine and post routes the way they do against Mahomes?   How open would Cole Beasley look with 2 deep safeties on every play?  

 

The point isn't that Allen isn't excellent............he is excellent.........but Mahomes is unique and he wasn't going to be held back much or for very long anywhere.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

27 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Andy Reid was a good head coach with a very long history of choking in the playoffs.........and a passing game genius he was not...........most of his Philly teams and early KC teams were successful primarily because of defense.  One of his Chiefs teams was the only team in modern NFL history to go an entire season without a WR scoring a TD.

 

There's truth to this, but it ignores Reid's evolution as a HC and offensive coach, and especially what KC was doing just prior to drafting Mahomes - which after all, are more relevant to the situation Mahomes was drafted into than Reid's "very long history" as a coach.

 

By 2016, Reid had evolved an efficient passing game.  The Chiefs were no longer winning based on the run; they were consistently higher in passing yards than passing attempts, signalling an efficient attack.  2016 19th in passing yards, 25th in attempts.  2017 with more upgrade in personnel especially at WR,  7th in passing yards and 17th in attempts.

This isn't "over hyping", it is what it is.

 

Quote

And as for the "elite skill players".............they didn't look so elite when a cut and paste Buffalo defense went into KC in 2017 and shut them down when the Chiefs just had "very good" QB Alex Smith at the helm.    And that team had Kelce and Hill in their primes and even had the NFL's leading rusher in Kareem Hunt.

 

Perhaps it's not intended, but this appears to be "talking down" the 2017 Bills defense which was shutting down a good number of opponents - 7 games with opponents held to <100 yds rushing and 6 games with opponents held to <200 yds passing.  I'm not exactly sure what is meant by "cut and paste", but while it wasn't ranked high, it was a fundamentally sound defense and generally regarded as such, I believe.

 

Mahomes was drafted into a very good situation.  Yes he elevated the team, but all the tools were there to enable the elevation including the run game, the TE and WR, the OL, and a HC who had learned and evolved over the years. 

 

I don't understand what the problem people have with acknowledging this, or pointing out that if those tools were absent on the team that drafted him, Mahomes would probably not have looked as good as quickly.

 

[Zerovoltz]

I didn't read through every single post here, but I read alot of them.....I have 2 points.

 

1.  first let me address the crowd that points out "Mahomes wouldn't be as good here as he is in KC because of weapons"  Truly, Mahomes did end up in the optimal spot....KC was a great match for what he does and had skill players in place.  I am sure that only in KC does the kid have 50/5000 season, but you are not giving enough credit to Mahomes for the things he does as a QB that lifts the entire roster around him.  IF he had landed in Bufalo or anywhere else, he'd have been special and would have made the skill players on any roster look better than they are.  Also....as a KC fan...It's irritating to keep seeing that the national perception is that we have "a good line".  WE DO NOT have a good line.  We have 2 good tackles and a very bad G-C-G combo.  If Joe Flacco was KC's QB, he'd get killed.  also, as great as you might think our RB are (there are good) .....KC SUCKS at getting any kind of push when you need a yard....they get pushed back.  it's awful.  I digress....Mahomes would even make the Jets a respectable team.

 

2.  This whole thing has been talked out enough....For a team that gets called out for missing on Mahomes, the Bills landed squarely on their feet with Allen.  He's a top end NFL QB talent at this point and he's fun as hell to watch.  I know I enjoy it whenever I get a chance to watch Bills games.  He is a guy you can build around and win a super bowl with.  You'll be competing with Mahomes to do it....but Allen is one of the few young horses in this leauge who potentially can do that.  This whole thing would another awful chapter in the long history of Bills missteps if you didn't land Allen....your franchise is in good shape!  The Pegulas, from the outside looking in....seem like good owners that have made sound choices....they just kind of oddly handled that 2017 offseason wich made for a situation where taking a QB at 10 wasn't really something McD was going to be comfortable doing at his sole discretion.  It's fine.  Things turned out pretty good considering.   

[RochesterLifer]

2 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

...For a team that gets called out for missing on Mahomes, the Bills landed squarely on their feet with Allen.  He's a top end NFL QB talent at this point and he's fun as hell to watch.  I know I enjoy it whenever I get a chance to watch Bills games.  He is a guy you can build around and win a super bowl with.  You'll be competing with Mahomes to do it....but Allen is one of the few young horses in this league who potentially can do that.  

^This ^this ^and, this^. End of story and go Bills!

 

Oh, and Zerovolt...Thank you.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Looking at the here and now, would the Bills be any better off this year with Mahomes instead of Allen? Maybe? No guarantee either way. I'm more than happy to have Allen.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Actually, two of the best offensive minds ever — Andy Reid and Sean Payton — both saw him as one of the greatest prospects to come along in years and were quite confident in their opinion. The fact that the Todd McShays of the world had doubts about him is utterly meaningless given what Reid and Payton thought (I can’t stand it when people say that there was no consensus about him and that he was an unknown quantity.) The Chiefs traded up to 10 because they knew the Saints would take him. 
 

‘And the Saints, particularly Payton, were high on Mahomes' potential. They graded him higher than any quarterback they'd evaluated in recent drafts. So much so that they would seriously consider taking him with the No. 11 overall pick. It was the first time the Saints had come close to taking a quarterback so high in the draft during Payton's coaching tenure.’

https://www.nola.com/sports/saints/article_654a281d-df32-5e39-a000-164211140b18.html

 

One final note: the worst “important” team ever when it comes to evaluating QBs -- the Chicago Bears — has far more to answer for than the Bills.

 

[whatdrought]

People re-writing history arguing that Mahomes would be Mahomes on the 2017 Bills with Zay Jones, Rick Dennison and David Culley guiding him with Tuhrod holding his hand. 

 

 

 

The article ( though I agree seems contrived in much of the controversy) paints Whaley and the other guy as trying to undermine McD's authority. 

[Lfod]

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There's truth to this, but it ignores Reid's evolution as a HC and offensive coach, and especially what KC was doing just prior to drafting Mahomes - which after all, are more relevant to the situation Mahomes was drafted into than Reid's "very long history" as a coach.

 

By 2016, Reid had evolved an efficient passing game.  The Chiefs were no longer winning based on the run; they were consistently higher in passing yards than passing attempts, signalling an efficient attack.  2016 19th in passing yards, 25th in attempts.  2017 with more upgrade in personnel especially at WR,  7th in passing yards and 17th in attempts.

This isn't "over hyping", it is what it is.

 

 

Perhaps it's not intended, but this appears to be "talking down" the 2017 Bills defense which was shutting down a good number of opponents - 7 games with opponents held to <100 yds rushing and 6 games with opponents held to <200 yds passing.  I'm not exactly sure what is meant by "cut and paste", but while it wasn't ranked high, it was a fundamentally sound defense and generally regarded as such, I believe.

 

Mahomes was drafted into a very good situation.  Yes he elevated the team, but all the tools were there to enable the elevation including the run game, the TE and WR, the OL, and a HC who had learned and evolved over the years. 

 

I don't understand what the problem people have with acknowledging this, or pointing out that if those tools were absent on the team that drafted him, Mahomes would probably not have looked as good as quickly.

 

He evolved dramatically in a positive direction regarding offense in Philly itself. The Eagles oscillated between top ten and top five in offense every year from 2006-2011.

[QLBillsFan]

The story is not complete. It’s likely that we have this discussion and KC and Mahomes win additional SB’s over the next five years or so. If in fact the Bills win one with JA  it turns out to a win win situation. To suggest that Mahomes isn’t great is foolish, but to suggest he was not benefited by KC just isn’t realistic. He probably elevates the Bills but it certainly would have taken longer than in KC. Maybe last year or certainly this year. I like our guy to win one in the next few years. If John Brown can get healthy and the D to continue to improve it’s not impossible it could be this year. But it will take a phenomenal effort to beat KC on the road. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, JohnNord said:

This article was ok.  It wasn’t as amazing as some on Twitter thought, a little overrated.  It was long and bloated. 

 

Keep in mind that a lot of guys talking it up on Twitter are Ty Dunne's former colleagues and friends trying to help him launch his new product.

[BADOLBILZ]

42 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There's truth to this, but it ignores Reid's evolution as a HC and offensive coach, and especially what KC was doing just prior to drafting Mahomes - which after all, are more relevant to the situation Mahomes was drafted into than Reid's "very long history" as a coach.

 

By 2016, Reid had evolved an efficient passing game.  The Chiefs were no longer winning based on the run; they were consistently higher in passing yards than passing attempts, signalling an efficient attack.  2016 19th in passing yards, 25th in attempts.  2017 with more upgrade in personnel especially at WR,  7th in passing yards and 17th in attempts.

This isn't "over hyping", it is what it is.

 

 

Perhaps it's not intended, but this appears to be "talking down" the 2017 Bills defense which was shutting down a good number of opponents - 7 games with opponents held to <100 yds rushing and 6 games with opponents held to <200 yds passing.  I'm not exactly sure what is meant by "cut and paste", but while it wasn't ranked high, it was a fundamentally sound defense and generally regarded as such, I believe.

 

Mahomes was drafted into a very good situation.  Yes he elevated the team, but all the tools were there to enable the elevation including the run game, the TE and WR, the OL, and a HC who had learned and evolved over the years. 

 

I don't understand what the problem people have with acknowledging this, or pointing out that if those tools were absent on the team that drafted him, Mahomes would probably not have looked as good as quickly.

 

 

 

1) I don't think I'd characterize Reid as evolving as a HC thru 2017.

 

He was still enigmatic offensively...........he had years in Philly where he had no receivers but still made his QB's look good.........then he had years where his offenses inexplicably underachieved.    He was no "genius" he literally went a punchless 4-12 with effectively the same talent that Chip Kelly then went 10-6 with and lead the NFL in big plays with.   

 

He was consistent at 3 things.........fielding competitive teams one way or another.........then getting upset by lesser talented teams in the playoffs..........and of course his terrible clock management.

 

His evolution was getting a GOAT-like QB.  

 

2) As for that Bills defense.........they went into that Chiefs game coming off the worst 3 game defensive stretch in team history.    But all that Chiefs talent failed to take advantage of all the Cedric Thornton's and Phil Humber's and Eddie Yarborough's in that lineup.   It was a pretty shocking turn of events. 

 

3) I have no problem with people saying that Mahomes was put into a good situation..........but the point is SO overstated.   

 

Do you suppose in some other market there is a fan saying.........."well you know Allen had a great situation because Brian Daboll was a national championship winning OC who worked alongside Tom Brady for 8 years and then put together this great passing offense that allowed Josh Allen to lead the NFL in passing yardage thru 10 weeks in 2020!   Of course he's great......he had it made!"

 

If you ignore A LOT of the other facts about Daboll's history.......as many Bills apologists do with Reid......then what's wrong with THAT narrative?   

 

[BADOLBILZ]

23 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He evolved dramatically in a positive direction regarding offense in Philly itself. The Eagles oscillated between top ten and top five in offense every year from 2006-2011.

 

Yeah Reid had already been every kinda' HC..........except a champion........until he got Mahomes.

 

[QLBillsFan]

To your point for every negative critic of JA like Warner or Bradshaw you have others Simms / Favre think he’s going to be unreal. I don’t get the pressure on JA being worse than any other franchise QB this year?
 

Brees, Brady, Ben, Rivers, all have pressure with their own unique circumstances. They all have legacy pressure? R Wilson and Mahomes himself . JA would say yeah that’s why I am driven to be a franchise QB! To be the man that leads the Bills to a SB win! 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

1) I don't think I'd characterize Reid as evolving as a HC thru 2017.

 

Then we disagree.  I think objectively on the face of bulk offensive statistics added to specifics of play calls, one can make a good case.  But your emoji litter suggests that you're not interested in looking at that, just at asserting your rightness, so I'm not gonna hang around and bang my head on a wall.

 

47 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

He was still enigmatic offensively...........he had years in Philly where he had no receivers but still made his QB's look good.........then he had years where his offenses inexplicably underachieved.

 

The point being made in my post was that when evaluating what type of HC/OC situation Mahomes was drafted into, it is more relevant to look at the years immediately preceding his first starting season, rather than go back to Philly. 

Is that a point you really want to argue?  If considering what kind of employee you would make, we shouldn't look at, say, your most recent 2-3 years, we should go back 6-10?  Would anyone reasonable want to argue that?

 

47 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

3) I have no problem with people saying that Mahomes was put into a good situation..........but the point is SO overstated.   

 

Fair

 

47 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Do you suppose in some other market there is a fan saying.........."well you know Allen had a great situation because Brian Daboll was a national championship winning OC who worked alongside Tom Brady for 8 years and then put together this great passing offense that allowed Josh Allen to lead the NFL in passing yardage thru 10 weeks in 2020!   Of course he's great......he had it made!"

 

I don't really think that's a reasonable analogy but if you do, knock yourself out.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I didn't read through every single post here, but I read alot of them.....I have 2 points.

 

1.  first let me address the crowd that points out "Mahomes wouldn't be as good here as he is in KC because of weapons"  Truly, Mahomes did end up in the optimal spot....KC was a great match for what he does and had skill players in place.  I am sure that only in KC does the kid have 50/5000 season, but you are not giving enough credit to Mahomes for the things he does as a QB that lifts the entire roster around him.  IF he had landed in Bufalo or anywhere else, he'd have been special and would have made the skill players on any roster look better than they are.  Also....as a KC fan...It's irritating to keep seeing that the national perception is that we have "a good line".  WE DO NOT have a good line.  We have 2 good tackles and a very bad G-C-G combo.  If Joe Flacco was KC's QB, he'd get killed.  also, as great as you might think our RB are (there are good) .....KC SUCKS at getting any kind of push when you need a yard....they get pushed back.  it's awful.  I digress....Mahomes would even make the Jets a respectable team.

 

2.  This whole thing has been talked out enough....For a team that gets called out for missing on Mahomes, the Bills landed squarely on their feet with Allen.  He's a top end NFL QB talent at this point and he's fun as hell to watch.  I know I enjoy it whenever I get a chance to watch Bills games.  He is a guy you can build around and win a super bowl with.  You'll be competing with Mahomes to do it....but Allen is one of the few young horses in this leauge who potentially can do that.  This whole thing would another awful chapter in the long history of Bills missteps if you didn't land Allen....your franchise is in good shape!  The Pegulas, from the outside looking in....seem like good owners that have made sound choices....they just kind of oddly handled that 2017 offseason wich made for a situation where taking a QB at 10 wasn't really something McD was going to be comfortable doing at his sole discretion.  It's fine.  Things turned out pretty good considering.   

 

1. KC was a good place to land.........but optimal?   No.  Optimal would have been New England........he'd likely be a two time SB champ by now.   Or LA Rams where he could have perhaps teamed with McVay for a couple decades.  Pittsburgh......is definitely a better drafting and developing organization than KC and they are great at drafting WR's.    As you pointed out though.........Mahomes was going to be good just about wherever.   KC has also done a good job throwing the kitchen sink at winning since he arrived.   Not every organization would have done that.   The timing was definitely right in Andy Reid's career...........when Reid was in Philly they did the exact opposite with McNabb.........they tried to win and stay $30M below the cap every year at a time when the cap was much lower.   Reid was at the point in KC where the early exits were wearing out his welcome.  It was good timing.

 

2. The hope in Buffalo is that Allen v. Mahomes becomes the marquee matchup at QB in the league.  It's a stretch until Allen actually meets and beats Mahomes in a big game........and there are a lot of talented young QB's elsewhere as well.............but I am definitely glad Mahomes didn't end up in a few different places.  

[Mr. WEO]

Bills could have drafted Mahomes??

 

Dang...