The Bills Aren't a Top-Tier Team Yet

[BuffaloRebound]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

The physical toughness is what concerns me. Offensively, we can get there. Have players now to be more physical on the offensive line. Hopefully the staff will spot the weak links in Morse and Winters. On the defense, Dane Jackson can be that physical CB needed opposite Tre. Still need a bigger nickel, Taron doesn't fill that void. We already know about the trenches

Agreed.  Have too many ‘business-decision’ guys on defense.  Hopefully that changes now that we are getting closer to end of season.  I know it was the Jets, but that 2nd half defense was beautiful.  We were laying the wood.  We have to play with those bad intentions on defense the rest of the way.  

[y2zipper]

Here's what we know (or at least think). Allen is an excellent QB and as long as they get excellent QB play, they're going to have a shot any given year. Some stuff has gone their way this year, with the team winning a lot of one-possession games. But the schedule has been really really tough, and breaks lighter the next few weeks with the Chargers and Broncos.

 

On the Allen debate, I think he's probably in the top 5 on any list that doesn't consider age and isn't on any list when we are talking right now. Knowledge and experience take time, and it's fair to want Brady or Big Ben right now 

 

I've this before and I'll say it again: it's a good team missing some elements. Namely, they haven't been able to run effectively and the defense hasn't been healthy like the last 2 years. Somebody like McDermott and great QB play on the other side is the recipe for long term success, and if the defense can get healthy and right they'll have a shot.

 

I don't know exactly where they sit. It's probably below KC and Pittsburgh, and probably above the other teams in the North. Buffalo, Tennessee and Indy are the three teams I see in the tier below KC and Pittsburgh at the moment, but they've all played clunkers and I like the QB play in Buffalo on the year better than the other 2 teams but I like Indy on both sides of the ball as of late.

[Augie]

10 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Which begs the question 

 

which teams are elite?

 

KC lost to the Raiders and had a close late game win against them. 
 

GB?  They lost some head scratchers and just don’t seem to have it all together 

 

Pitt?  Big Ben and the preseason softest schedule 

 

Seattle?  
 

Saints maybe still 

 

We’ve beaten some good teams, and we have no “bad losses” (though there is still that last excruciating loss, but I digress). We are not “elite”, but we are not far behind. We can beat anyone on any given day without it be a shocking event. 

 

How many teams have more wins than the Bills against teams above .500? 

 

 

.

Edited November 24, 2020 by Augie

[Stank_Nasty]

26 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I guess it's about what you value.   Two minutes to go, down 5 in the AFC Championship game, I want Brady or Ben in the huddle over Josh.   Yes, I agree that purely physically, neither holds a candle to Josh.   I want their knowledge and experience.  

 

Ben may be throwing 3/4 of his passes less than 10 yards, but guess what, so is Josh.  Most of those downfield beauties from the first four weeks are history.  Teams have forced the Bills into the short game.   Even KC has been forced into the short game.  In that kind of game, Ben's brain gives him the advantage over Josh.  

Can’t nit pick that reasoning too much other than to say Allen is making his own career out of game winning drives and had 2 beauties against good teams already this year(Rams, Cards). And Allen’s YPA is a full yard better than Bens. 
 

Your reasoning is sound. I just think right now I’d take the guy with all the physical gifts that’s also shown the ability this season(and priors) to do what your asking. 
 

But isn’t it fun that it’s a legit debate? Allen vs a Gold jacket on a 10-0 squad. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[HomeTeam]

I'm not sure why a few are so quick to jump on the op for his take. It's an honest and courageous take, and one that most rational fans can agree with. Nobody needs to defend Josh Allen. Josh Allen is a stud. 

 

I am in agreement with the op on this teams ability to stop the run. I can just see already teams like 49ers, Ravens, titans, just running it down our throats. I'm hoping we can find a solution but I'm not confident we have the right personnel on this roster. 

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Can’t nit pick that reasoning too much other than to say Allen is making his own career out of game winning drives and had 2 beauties against good teams already this year(Rams, Cards). And Allen’s YPA is a full yard better than Bens. 
 

Your reasoning is sound. I just think right now I’d take the guy with all the physical gifts that’s also shown the ability this season(and priors) to do what your asking. 
 

But isn’t it fun that it’s a legit debate? Allen vs a Gold jacket on a 10-0 squad. 

Yes, it's fun.  It's weird.  It's been so long, I really had forgotten what it's like to talk about a good team.   

 

As little as three years ago, the usual conversation was about "holes."   Bills have this hole to fill, that hole to fill.  Frankly, by the standards of those days, left guard is a hole.  Linebacker is a hole.  Tight end is a hole.  But when you have a good team, the collective effectiveness of the team covers the holes.  Having a QB who can do the things Allen is doing covers holes.  

 

As for Allen, I'm at the point where I believe I'm watching season three of a Hall of Fame career.   Better than Kelly.  Way better than Kemp and Fergy.  

 

We're being rewarded for all those years.  The Lamonica trade.  So much of the 70s and 80s.  The drought.  This is the reward.  

[Buffalo03]

I think we're a good team. I think the games against the Titans and Chiefs makes our numbers and stuff look a little worse but we have beaten good teams

 

Dolphins 6-4

Rams 6-3

Raiders 6-4 (nearly knocked of the Chiefs twice)

Seahawks 7-3

 

I think we are right below the Steelers and Chiefs and I honestly feel if we play the Chiefs again that we can beat them as well as the Titans when we aren't preparing for both teams in the same week and we don't know if we are gonna play one or both teams with one of them coming off two and half weeks rest to prepare

[Shaw66]

Well, I have to back track a bit.  After watching Brady last night, I would take Allen over him right now.  Sure, Brady sees and understands more about what's going on on the field, and that's really important.  But Allen handles pressure in the pocket much better, and he throws the ball well more consistently than Brady.   Brady's throwing to Evans, Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Gronkowski.  Those guys should be lighting it up, and last night it looked like Brady was the one holding them back.  Tampa Bay wins that game with Allen at QB.  

[Billsfan1972]

There are no "top-tier" teams, except maybe KC.  All have flaws and weaknesses, but pretty much it is about QB play and coaching to your strengths and not making stupid mistakes.

 

The Bills continues to be they want to play to their opponents level and seems close games week after week. 

 

Again the next two weeks will be telling as again these are teams they need to win by 10+ and then Pitt....

 

I'm a sucker because I believe in Allen, but coaching still has me concerned. 

[teef]

10 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

There are no "top-tier" teams, except maybe KC.  All have flaws and weaknesses, but pretty much it is about QB play and coaching to your strengths and not making stupid mistakes.

 

The Bills continues to be they want to play to their opponents level and seems close games week after week. 

 

Again the next two weeks will be telling as again these are teams they need to win by 10+ and then Pitt....

 

I'm a sucker because I believe in Allen, but coaching still has me concerned. 

no they don't.  to win they need just one point more.

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, teef said:

no they don't.  to win they need just one point more.

Yes appreciate the math lesson....😜 

 

Want to see more though.

 

I don't want to be relying on a Cam Newton fumble on the 12, a pass interference on fourth down, an int vs. NYJ in the last 2 minutes or knocking down a hail mary to end games.....

Edited November 24, 2020 by Billsfan1972

[teef]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yes appreciate the math lesson....😜 

 

Want to see more though.

 

I don't want to be relying on a Cam Newton fumble on the 12, a pass interference on fourth down, an int vs. NYJ in the last 2 minutes or knocking down a hail mary to end games.....

that's how some games in the nfl are finished...for even the best teams.  you may not love it, but that's the reality of football.

[Lfod]

It doesn't matter to me personally. I am having a blast with the Bills this year. 

 

 

[BuffaninSarasota]

On 11/23/2020 at 10:57 AM, Shaw66 said:

I think this is the point - not simply run or stop the run, but in general, they don't yet look like a team that can make the deep playoff run. 

 

But, as I said, what the Bills have going for them is the process.  I don't think we've seen their best football yet.  

 

agreed on both counts

[Billsfan1972]

On 11/23/2020 at 10:57 AM, Shaw66 said:

I think this is the point - not simply run or stop the run, but in general, they don't yet look like a team that can make the deep playoff run. 

 

But, as I said, what the Bills have going for them is the process.  I don't think we've seen their best football yet.  

What is it with you & The Process?  How about just winning.  

 

I like your breakdowns and keen eye, but the Kool-Aid you drink from McD......  Sheesh!!!!

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

On 11/23/2020 at 9:25 AM, Shaw66 said:

I've let myself get so excited about the Bills' recent success that I stopped paying attention to the measurables.  I looked this morning.  The data make it pretty clear that the Bills still have some growing to do.

 

Look at the standings (and ignore the NFC East).  The Bills have a decent record, like most of the other division leaders, but they are behind the very best teams.  The Bills are just barely above .500 in points for/points against, worst among all the division leaders.   

 

Go to the team stats.  When you look collectively at yards per game offense, points per game offense, yards per game defense, points per game defense, this is a middling team.   The Bills pass pretty well and defend the pass pretty well, and the Bills aren't very good running or stopping the run.  

 

The Bills don't come to mind when you think of physically tough teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh.  

 

The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10.

 

There just isn't much of anything that says the Bills are one of the best teams. 

 

Still, I'm optimistic.  I'm optimistic because what the Bills have is a process where they continue to get better.   I wrote earlier this season about McDermott's mid-season slump.   I think it's real.  I think the Bills get better from week to week for 17 weeks, focusing on all parts of their game.  Other teams focus more narrowly, like maybe Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona - by focusing narrowly, they get better faster, but they plateau.  I think in that regard the Bills operate like the Patriots have operated.  I think the Bills will continue to win, and I think that may even put up some wins that will surprise some people.  It will happen because we haven't seen the best of 2020 Bills yet - they're built to peak in December. 

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game.  

 

 

I was thinking this before the season stared, I thought we were one year out from acquiring enough talent to compete with the top 10 teams. The thing is this team feels like it's about to get hot going into the playoffs and sometimes that all that matters. The talent is definitely there on both sides of the football and big improvements will be made after the bye week. The only weakness this team has is it's run blocking. This team is going to win in the playoffs because of its passing game, passing attempts should stay the same but the run game needs to do a lot more with the current work load.

[spartacus]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I guess it's about what you value.   Two minutes to go, down 5 in the AFC Championship game, I want Brady or Ben in the huddle over Josh.   Yes, I agree that purely physically, neither holds a candle to Josh.   I want their knowledge and experience.  

 

Ben may be throwing 3/4 of his passes less than 10 yards, but guess what, so is Josh.  Most of those downfield beauties from the first four weeks are history.  Teams have forced the Bills into the short game.   Even KC has been forced into the short game.  In that kind of game, Ben's brain gives him the advantage over Josh.  

the shoulder harness Josh wore for 4 games is most responsible for shifting to shorter passing game

 

with the bye to heal further, Josh's downfield game will return

 

 

 

[Big Blitz]

On 11/23/2020 at 1:10 PM, Big Blitz said:

Power Rankings (I'll do a top 14 since thats the number of playoff teams)

 

1. Chiefs

2. Steelers

3. Saints 

4. Tampa

5. Ravens (missing those 2 on the DL is a big deal)

6. Bills 

7. Colts

8. Packers 

9. Seahawks

10. Titans

11. Rams

12. Arizona

13. Browns 

14. Vegas

 

 

Pete Prisco just put out his rankings:

 

1. Steelers 

2. Chiefs

3. Saints 

4. Colts

5. Packers 

6. Rams (Definitely top 10 after yesterday)

7. Seahawks 

8. Bills 

9. Titans 

10. Bucs 

[finn]

It's hard to argue with stats, but I expect the Bills will improve quite a bit in the stretch run. They needed to bye to get healthy and work on their weaknesses, particularly running and stopping the run. If they can do one of these, they'll win at least three of the next six. If they do both, they could win five or six. Of the two, I have more faith they're more likely to figure out how to stop the run, with Klein coming on, Edwards returning to form, and the coaches figuring out something with the weak one-technique position. Maybe Harrison is finally healthy enough to contribute. I'm less optimistic about the run game, although Cody Ford combining with Dawkins gives me hope. I worry that the coaches think Boettger is the answer at guard and that Winters is anything more than a warm body. 

[Figster]

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Pete Prisco just put out his rankings:

 

1. Steelers 

2. Chiefs

3. Saints 

4. Colts

5. Packers 

6. Rams (Definitely top 10 after yesterday)

7. Seahawks 

8. Bills 

9. Titans 

10. Bucs 

The Bills have beaten two teams ranked above us.

 

If top 10 was considered top tier I would say the Buffalo Bills are right in the thick of things IMO.