Patriot offensive demise exaggerated? Drive stats seem to say so...

[Big Turk]

I have to say I was shocked looking at NFL offensive drive stat numbers. I expected the Bills to be near the top which they were(top 5 in many, top 10 in most others), but what I was not expecting to see were the Patriots ranked #3 in the NFL for  yards per drive(39.72), only trailing KC and GB, and #1 in the NFL in number of plays per drive(7.04).

 

Bills rank #6 with 38.90 yards per drive and #5 with 6.77 plays per drive.

 

We know they lack talent at the skill positions. Cam has been blah most games and the only real player they have as a threat is Harris. 

 

But yet they are still able to move the ball, even though they have turned it over a lot, where they rank near dead last in TO/drive. But that is what worries me a little...if they can stop turning it over, this can still be a dangerous team, even with virtually no skills position players. 

 

I don't believe they are going to win the division or even make the playoffs this year...too big of a hole and the AFC is too strong. But this team could be far more dangerous next year than some think even if they don't have great skill players....how have they been so effective at moving the ball? McDaniels seemingly is making the offense go with smoke and mirrors.

[BruceVilanch]

As the warrior poet Mel Kiper Jr once said, "Stats are for losers." You can watch their games and tell that the offense is a joke, I hope they are in the cellar of the AFC east with the Jets for the foreseeable future.

[Putin]

They got smoked by the 49’ers but besides that all the games have been pretty close even the Chiefs game 

[GoBills808]

I think it’s instructive to look at both yards AND points/drive to get a better understanding of offensive production on a per drive basis. The Pats offense is not turning those drives into points whereas top offenses like ours, KC, LV, Green Bay, Arizona are.

[MJS]

Yards per drive? Is that a stat that really means anything? How do they rank in points per game? How is their 3rd down and red zone efficiency? What's their turnover differential?

 

NE is 19th in yards per game, 27th in points per game. That's about all you need to see. They don't have a good offense. Even Jacksonville is scoring more than them.

[Kwai San]

6 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

As the warrior poet Mel Kiper Jr once said, "Stats are for losers." You can watch their games and tell that the offense is a joke, I hope they are in the cellar of the AFC east with the Jets for the foreseeable future.

 

Thanks - I got a chuckle outa that one!!

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I think it’s instructive to look at both yards AND points/drive to get a better understanding of offensive production on a per drive basis. The Pats offense is not turning those drives into points whereas top offenses like ours, KC, LV, Green Bay, Arizona are.

 

Yes that is correct but mainly because of their high turnover numbers. Like the Bills they have not punted that much this year with only 24 in 9 games(Bills have 25 in 10 games).

Edited November 19, 2020 by matter2003

[SoCal Deek]

The Patriots stat isn’t surprising to me. It all comes from having a smart and disciplined offensive coordinator. The problem most teams have is unimaginative play calling. The OC gets either bored or in a rut. Not with the Patriots. For the last five plus years Brady would simply take what the defense gave him. He’d ground the ball if it wasn’t there. He’d move the chains....relentlessly. In 2020 that philosophy is still there, but the talent and execution aren’t, so drives that Brady used to extend are now stalling. 

[78thealltimegreat]

8 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I have to say I was shocked looking at NFL offensive drive stat numbers. I expected the Bills to be near the top which they were(top 5 in many, top 10 in most others), but what I was not expecting to see were the Patriots ranked #3 in the NFL for  yards per drive(39.72), only trailing KC and GB, and #1 in the NFL in number of plays per drive(7.04).

 

Bills rank #6 with 38.90 yards per drive and #5 with 6.77 plays per drive.

 

We know they lack talent at the skill positions. Cam has been blah most games and the only real player they have as a threat is Harris. 

 

But yet they are still able to move the ball, even though they have turned it over a lot, where they rank near dead last in TO/drive. But that is what worries me a little...if they can stop turning it over, this can still be a dangerous team, even with virtually no skills position players. 

 

I don't believe they are going to win the division or even make the playoffs this year...too big of a hole and the AFC is too strong. But this team could be far more dangerous next year than some think even if they don't have great skill players....how have they been so effective at moving the ball? McDaniels seemingly is making the offense go with smoke and mirrors.

The problem with them being dangerous is the Dolphins with Tua, the Bills with Josh, and now likely the Jets with Trevor aren’t going away either they may win a game here and there but the days of Tom Brady and the Pats guaranteed 5 or 6 automatic wins in the division alone cause no one else had a quarterback are long gone 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

On PFR the Pats are listed 10th at 35.8/drive and 20th in pts/drive. I think they are a pretty mediocre, middling type of offense. They can be very effective running the ball, but are subpar throwing the rock.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I think the patriots defensive demise is what was exaggerated.  They lost Chung and Hightower to covid opt outs, Collins Shelton Van Noy and Roberts to FA.  Basically all their linebackers, a DT and the starting strong safety. 

 

They're currently 11th in points and 13th in yards.  Last year they were 1st in both and 2nd in takeaways, this year they're 3rd in takeaways.  The Miami defense that everyone loves is 5th in points, 19th in yards and also 3rd in takeaways.  Very similar teams in a lot of ways

 

8 hours ago, Putin said:

They got smoked by the 49’ers but besides that all the games have been pretty close even the Chiefs game 

Cam didn't even play in the chiefs game.  

[H2o]

The offense has improved since they seemingly found something with Damien Harris at RB. They have been leaning on the run heavily since that game against us. As long as they are successful with that they will be in almost every game. It bleeds the clock and at this point they are making the most of their scoring opportunities. The real difference for them is the QB play. Cam is not the Cam of 4 years ago and he surely isn't a QB who dissects opposing defenses like Brady. They are a 7-9 type of team that will win enough games to keep them away from the two upper echelon QB's in this draft and that's fine by me. 

[Big Turk]

18 minutes ago, H2o said:

The offense has improved since they seemingly found something with Damien Harris at RB. They have been leaning on the run heavily since that game against us. As long as they are successful with that they will be in almost every game. It bleeds the clock and at this point they are making the most of their scoring opportunities. The real difference for them is the QB play. Cam is not the Cam of 4 years ago and he surely isn't a QB who dissects opposing defenses like Brady. They are a 7-9 type of team that will win enough games to keep them away from the two upper echelon QB's in this draft and that's fine by me. 

 

It certainly bleeds the clock...Patriots are tied for fewest offensive drives in the NFL with only 89...Surprisingly KC also only has 89 but that is likely because the other team tries to run the ball against them to limit their possessions.

[Chuck Wagon]

I think the demise of the Pats has been greatly exaggerated.  Seems like Cam was dealing with some Covid after affects when he returned.  Looking at their schedule moving forward, I wouldn't be shocked to see them rip off the last 7 games, get to 11-5 and make the division race very interesting.

[H2o]

7 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

I think the demise of the Pats has been greatly exaggerated.  Seems like Cam was dealing with some Covid after affects when he returned.  Looking at their schedule moving forward, I wouldn't be shocked to see them rip off the last 7 games, get to 11-5 and make the division race very interesting.

I would be absolutely shocked if they won the next 7. I'll be surprised if they finish the year better than .500 tbh. I think they go 3-4 down the stretch on their way to 7-9. 

[TheFunPolice]

They just have zero talent on offense at the skill positions... It's like they are determined to give the QB zero help.

 

I'm fine with it, but it's crazy!

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

Yards per drive? Is that a stat that really means anything? How do they rank in points per game? How is their 3rd down and red zone efficiency? What's their turnover differential?

 

NE is 19th in yards per game, 27th in points per game. That's about all you need to see. They don't have a good offense. Even Jacksonville is scoring more than them.

 

 

Yes, it means a lot. Particularly if you're trying to isolate the offense from the D and the STs.

 

Points is a whole team stat, as it greatly rests on field position on individual drives. Not to mention that defenses and STs can score points which in point-based stats are credited only to the offense. Probably around 65 - 70% offense but there's a lot of input from the other areas. Whereas yards is nearly all on the unit concerned because over the course of many games most teams average out fairly close in terms of average drive start

 

And it's exactly the 19th in yards per game that this throws light on. It means they didn't have as many drives per game as most teams, and that's a major factor in terms of both the likelihood of points and yards per game.

 

I was depressed to see that Outsiders has started charging for their drive stats. They are telling.

[Jauronimo]

New England may be moving the ball but they are 20th in red zone trips.  They simply don't get inside the 20 enough, and when they do they are 24th in red zone efficiency so they aren't scoring TDs on their red zone visits.  As a result, they are 27th in points per game.

 

Compare that to Buffalo who is 18th in red zone efficiency but tied for 2nd in red zone trips per game.  Which is why Buffalo is 11th in points per game.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yes, it means a lot. Particularly if you're trying to isolate the offense from the D and the STs.

 

Points is a whole team stat, as it greatly rests on field position on individual drives. Not to mention that defenses and STs can score points which in point-based stats are credited only to the offense. Probably around 65 - 70% offense but there's a lot of input from the other areas. Whereas yards is nearly all on the unit concerned because over the course of many games most teams average out fairly close in terms of average drive start

 

And it's exactly the 19th in yards per game that this throws light on. It means they didn't have as many drives per game as most teams, and that's a major factor in terms of both the likelihood of points and yards per game.

 

I was depressed to see that Outsiders has started charging for their drive stats. They are telling.

 

I disagree. NE does not have a good offense.

 

Yards per drive is directly related to field position, for one thing. If you have good special teams and get short fields from that and defensive turnovers, you may have a horrible yards per drive and yet still have a really good offense that scores a lot of points.

 

There's no way to isolate the offense completely. All phases of the game go together.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

New England may be moving the ball but they are 20th in red zone trips.  They simply don't get inside the 20 enough, and when they do they are 24th in red zone efficiency so they aren't scoring TDs on their red zone visits.  As a result, they are 27th in points per game.

 

Compare that to Buffalo who is 18th in red zone efficiency but tied for 2nd in red zone trips per game.  Which is why Buffalo is 11th in points per game.

 

Bills offensive stats for a change are near the top of the NFL in a lot of categories including 3rd doen conversion percentage where we are second at 50% only to Las Vegas 50.4%...

 

We also have the most 1st downs in the NFL with 238...