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The Great AFC Logjam


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If I'd have told you the Bills would be in 3rd place at the bye you probably would have hugged me.  If I'd have told you the Bills would be a half game ahead of 9th place at the bye you probably would have socked me in the jaw, and I probably would have said "Hey, what was that for?" and you probably would have said "The Bills underachieving" and I probably would have said "Well don't take it out on me" and you probably would have said "You're right.  It's not your fault."

 

Well as it turns out both are true, with an unprecedented nine teams at 6-3 or better in the AFC.  It's a pretty polarized situation as you have two teams (Steelers and Chiefs) who are virtual locks for the playoffs and seven teams that may as well be mathematically eliminated (mayyybe the Pats could pull it off but they need to go 6-1 and they just don't have a talented enough roster in my opinion).  That leaves 5 playoff spots for the following 7 teams...

 

Bills 7-3

Colts 6-3

Raiders 6-3

Dolphins 6-3

Ravens 6-3

Browns 6-3

Titans 6-3

 

Unlike, say, the Bears who started 5-1 but just didn't pass the eye test as a playoff team, I'd say there isn't a single team on this list that you'd call a safe bet to drop off the map.  I personally believe the Browns are the worst team of the bunch but they have the easiest remaining schedule with games remaining against the Eagles, Jags, Jets and Giants.  

 

All in all, it's pretty weird to look at this season's success and still be that close to the outside looking in.  But how close is it really?  Let's take a look...

 

Now obviously the best way to stay above the fray here is to win the division.  Our big advantage there is that the first tiebreaker is head to head and we already beat the Dolphins once.  That means Week 17 will be a win-and-in for the Bills if we're tied with them or trailing by 1 game.  If we're leading them by 1 game it will already be clinched if we beat the Patriots seeing as the second tiebreaker is division record and we sit at 4-0 while the Fins are 2-2.  On a personal level as a fan who started watching in 2001 I want to see Buffalo at the top of the division, but it'll be sweeter next season with fans in attendance.  The notion of a home playoff game this particular year is more about getting the easier opponent in Round 1 than anything.

 

But let's say the Dolphins just keep blocking punts and taking back INTs and Tua's great and they go 13-3.  How does the rest of the conference shake out?  The good news is that several of those 6-3 teams play one another down the stretch, whereas we play none of them except the Dolphins  The key matchups are...

 

Week 11 - Titans vs Ravens

Week 12 - Titans vs Colts

Week 13 - Browns vs Titans

Week 14 - Colts vs Raiders, Ravens vs Browns

Week 16 - Dolphins vs Raiders

 

Assuming there are no ties, that's 6 losses automatically into the fold.  Until the situation further plays out, it really doesn't matter to us who wins those games other than the consideration that the Titans have the tiebreaker on us so we probably want them to win that division over the Colts. 

 

Then you have the games remaining between the logjam teams and the Superbowl contender types.  Those are...

 

Week 11 - Chiefs vs Raiders, Packers vs Colts

Week 12 - Steelers vs Ravens

Week 14 - Chiefs vs Dolphins

Week 16 - Steelers vs Colts

Week 17 - Steelers vs Browns

 

That's another 6 games where there are conservatively at least 4 impending losses.  (We, of course, play the Steelers as well).  

 

This isn't even to mention that inevitably some of the lower AFC teams and mid-level NFC teams will score spoiler wins for us.  In other words it's not as if ALL of these teams will be sitting at 11-5 by season's end even though they're all technically on pace for it.  I believe at least one will be at 9-7 (odds on favorite, the Titans), with a solid chance of the 8th place team being 10-6 if the bottom of the AFC continues to disappoint.

 

So where does that leave the Bills chances over their final 6 games?  Basically this:

 

(Note:  I'm aware that this is educated guess speculation, not math.  There are literally millions of permutations of what could happen, but I'm talking about what's likely to happen)

 

6-0 - Division Crown

5-1 - Division Crown

4-2 - Wildcard lock, solid chance at division

3-3 - Solid chance at wildcard, tossup for division

2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division

1-5 - Miss playoffs

0-6 - Miss playoffs

 

In conclusion - the scary looking wall of 6-3 teams isn't actually all that scary.  We only miss the playoffs by playing a lot worse than we have for the first 10 games and if that's the case I don't really want to see the team rewarded by backing in anyway.

 

 

Edited by SageAgainstTheMachine
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Five Thirty Eight has us with an 87% chance to make playoffs, and 75% to win the Division.  Which is basically a regression analysis of what the OP posted, and quantifies the odds.

3 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

Good posting....you are definitely going to see at least one 10+ win team not make the playoffs this year in the AFC which is crazy considering the expanded format. And considering teams like the Raiders and Browns remaining schedules it's highly probable they both win at least 10 games and both could be on the outside looking in.

 

In regards to the Bills, the good news is that even if the current trends continue and the Dolphins take the division, we've already beat the Raiders which is key for tiebreakers. However we lost to Ten so if Indy wins the division which I think will happen they fall into the WC mix and have the head to head over the Bills.

 

We don't play the Ravens or Browns so can't do anything about them and even if we beat the Steelers they are likely winning the division so don't help for WC tiebreakers either.

 

Crazy stuff but it's probably safe to say the SB winner is definitely coming out of the AFC this year and will be one of the top 3 teams (PIT, KC or MIA).

 

Please stop.  Please.

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2 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Five Thirty Eight has us with an 87% chance to make playoffs, and 75% to win the Division.  Which is basically a regression analysis of what the OP posted, and quantifies the odds.

 

 

 

Football Outsiders has the same 87% chance at the playoffs but 69% at the division.  It's hard for me to wrap my mind around 87% with a half game lead (especially given our BBFS) but I believe it holds water.  The Bills control their destiny.

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22 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

 

Football Outsiders has the same 87% chance at the playoffs but 69% at the division.  It's hard for me to wrap my mind around 87% with a half game lead (especially given our BBFS) but I believe it holds water.  The Bills control their destiny.

The Bills only play 2 teams with a winning record, and they play the Dolphins at home.  Projecting an 11-5 record seems right, and from that flows the playoff odds.  Not making the playoffs at 11-5 is miniscule, notwithstanding all the 6-3 teams.  It always looks about now that 10-6 won't get you in for sure, and that usually ends up being wrong.   

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1 hour ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

If I'd have told you the Bills would be in 3rd place at the bye you probably would have hugged me.  If I'd have told you the Bills would be a half game ahead of 9th place at the bye you probably would have socked me in the jaw, and I probably would have said "Hey, what was that for?" and you probably would have said "The Bills underachieving" and I probably would have said "Well don't take it out on me" and you probably would have said "You're right.  It's not your fault."

 

Well as it turns out both are true, with an unprecedented nine teams at 6-3 or better in the AFC.  It's a pretty polarized situation as you have two teams (Steelers and Chiefs) who are virtual locks for the playoffs and seven teams that may as well be mathematically eliminated (mayyybe the Pats could pull it off but they need to go 6-1 and they just don't have a talented enough roster in my opinion).  That leaves 5 playoff spots for the following 7 teams...

 

Bills 7-3

Colts 6-3

Raiders 6-3

Dolphins 6-3

Ravens 6-3

Browns 6-3

Titans 6-3

 

Unlike, say, the Bears who started 5-1 but just didn't pass the eye test as a playoff team, I'd say there isn't a single team on this list that you'd call a safe bet to drop off the map.  I personally believe the Browns are the worst team of the bunch but they have the easiest remaining schedule with games remaining against the Eagles, Jags, Jets and Giants.  

 

All in all, it's pretty weird to look at this season's success and still be that close to the outside looking in.  But how close is it really?  Let's take a look...

 

Now obviously the best way to stay above the fray here is to win the division.  Our big advantage there is that the first tiebreaker is head to head and we already beat the Dolphins once.  That means Week 17 will be a win-and-in for the Bills if we're tied with them or trailing by 1 game.  If we're leading them by 1 game it will already be clinched if we beat the Patriots seeing as the second tiebreaker is division record and we sit at 4-0 while the Fins are 2-2.  On a personal level as a fan who started watching in 2001 I want to see Buffalo at the top of the division, but it'll be sweeter next season with fans in attendance.  The notion of a home playoff game this particular year is more about getting the easier opponent in Round 1 than anything.

 

But let's say the Dolphins just keep blocking punts and taking back INTs and Tua's great and they go 13-3.  How does the rest of the conference shake out?  The good news is that several of those 6-3 teams play one another down the stretch, whereas we play none of them except the Dolphins  The key matchups are...

 

Week 11 - Titans vs Ravens

Week 12 - Titans vs Colts

Week 13 - Browns vs Titans

Week 14 - Colts vs Raiders, Ravens vs Browns

Week 16 - Dolphins vs Raiders

 

Assuming there are no ties, that's 6 losses automatically into the fold.  Until the situation further plays out, it really doesn't matter to us who wins those games other than the consideration that the Titans have the tiebreaker on us so we probably want them to win that division over the Colts. 

 

Then you have the games remaining between the logjam teams and the Superbowl contender types.  Those are...

 

Week 11 - Chiefs vs Raiders, Packers vs Colts

Week 12 - Steelers vs Ravens

Week 14 - Chiefs vs Dolphins

Week 16 - Steelers vs Colts

Week 17 - Steelers vs Browns

 

That's another 6 games where there are conservatively at least 4 impending losses.  (We, of course, play the Steelers as well).  

 

This isn't even to mention that inevitably some of the lower AFC teams and mid-level NFC teams will score spoiler wins for us.  In other words it's not as if ALL of these teams will be sitting at 11-5 by season's end even though they're all technically on pace for it.  I believe at least one will be at 9-7 (odds on favorite, the Titans), with a solid chance of the 8th place team being 10-6 if the bottom of the AFC continues to disappoint.

 

So where does that leave the Bills chances over their final 6 games?  Basically this:

 

(Note:  I'm aware that this is educated guess speculation, not math.  There are literally millions of permutations of what could happen, but I'm talking about what's likely to happen)

 

6-0 - Division Crown

5-1 - Division Crown

4-2 - Wildcard lock, solid chance at division

3-3 - Solid chance at wildcard, tossup for division

2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division

1-5 - Miss playoffs

0-6 - Miss playoffs

 

In conclusion - the scary looking wall of 6-3 teams isn't actually all that scary.  We only miss the playoffs by playing a lot worse than we have for the first 10 games and if that's the case I don't really want to see the team rewarded by backing in anyway.

 

 

 

Great write up! Love this kind of stuff

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1 hour ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

If I'd have told you the Bills would be in 3rd place at the bye you probably would have hugged me.  If I'd have told you the Bills would be a half game ahead of 9th place at the bye you probably would have socked me in the jaw, and I probably would have said "Hey, what was that for?" and you probably would have said "The Bills underachieving" and I probably would have said "Well don't take it out on me" and you probably would have said "You're right.  It's not your fault."

 

Sage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  This was a fantastic write-up and thanks for putting the work into it.  GO BEELS!!!!!!!!!!!

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2 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

If I'd have told you the Bills would be in 3rd place at the bye you probably would have hugged me.  If I'd have told you the Bills would be a half game ahead of 9th place at the bye you probably would have socked me in the jaw, and I probably would have said "Hey, what was that for?" and you probably would have said "The Bills underachieving" and I probably would have said "Well don't take it out on me" and you probably would have said "You're right.  It's not your fault."

 

Well as it turns out both are true, with an unprecedented nine teams at 6-3 or better in the AFC.  It's a pretty polarized situation as you have two teams (Steelers and Chiefs) who are virtual locks for the playoffs and seven teams that may as well be mathematically eliminated (mayyybe the Pats could pull it off but they need to go 6-1 and they just don't have a talented enough roster in my opinion).  That leaves 5 playoff spots for the following 7 teams...

 

Bills 7-3

Colts 6-3

Raiders 6-3

Dolphins 6-3

Ravens 6-3

Browns 6-3

Titans 6-3

 

Unlike, say, the Bears who started 5-1 but just didn't pass the eye test as a playoff team, I'd say there isn't a single team on this list that you'd call a safe bet to drop off the map.  I personally believe the Browns are the worst team of the bunch but they have the easiest remaining schedule with games remaining against the Eagles, Jags, Jets and Giants.  

 

All in all, it's pretty weird to look at this season's success and still be that close to the outside looking in.  But how close is it really?  Let's take a look...

 

Now obviously the best way to stay above the fray here is to win the division.  Our big advantage there is that the first tiebreaker is head to head and we already beat the Dolphins once.  That means Week 17 will be a win-and-in for the Bills if we're tied with them or trailing by 1 game.  If we're leading them by 1 game it will already be clinched if we beat the Patriots seeing as the second tiebreaker is division record and we sit at 4-0 while the Fins are 2-2.  On a personal level as a fan who started watching in 2001 I want to see Buffalo at the top of the division, but it'll be sweeter next season with fans in attendance.  The notion of a home playoff game this particular year is more about getting the easier opponent in Round 1 than anything.

 

But let's say the Dolphins just keep blocking punts and taking back INTs and Tua's great and they go 13-3.  How does the rest of the conference shake out?  The good news is that several of those 6-3 teams play one another down the stretch, whereas we play none of them except the Dolphins  The key matchups are...

 

Week 11 - Titans vs Ravens

Week 12 - Titans vs Colts

Week 13 - Browns vs Titans

Week 14 - Colts vs Raiders, Ravens vs Browns

Week 16 - Dolphins vs Raiders

 

Assuming there are no ties, that's 6 losses automatically into the fold.  Until the situation further plays out, it really doesn't matter to us who wins those games other than the consideration that the Titans have the tiebreaker on us so we probably want them to win that division over the Colts. 

 

Then you have the games remaining between the logjam teams and the Superbowl contender types.  Those are...

 

Week 11 - Chiefs vs Raiders, Packers vs Colts

Week 12 - Steelers vs Ravens

Week 14 - Chiefs vs Dolphins

Week 16 - Steelers vs Colts

Week 17 - Steelers vs Browns

 

That's another 6 games where there are conservatively at least 4 impending losses.  (We, of course, play the Steelers as well).  

 

This isn't even to mention that inevitably some of the lower AFC teams and mid-level NFC teams will score spoiler wins for us.  In other words it's not as if ALL of these teams will be sitting at 11-5 by season's end even though they're all technically on pace for it.  I believe at least one will be at 9-7 (odds on favorite, the Titans), with a solid chance of the 8th place team being 10-6 if the bottom of the AFC continues to disappoint.

 

So where does that leave the Bills chances over their final 6 games?  Basically this:

 

(Note:  I'm aware that this is educated guess speculation, not math.  There are literally millions of permutations of what could happen, but I'm talking about what's likely to happen)

 

6-0 - Division Crown

5-1 - Division Crown

4-2 - Wildcard lock, solid chance at division

3-3 - Solid chance at wildcard, tossup for division

2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division

1-5 - Miss playoffs

0-6 - Miss playoffs

 

In conclusion - the scary looking wall of 6-3 teams isn't actually all that scary.  We only miss the playoffs by playing a lot worse than we have for the first 10 games and if that's the case I don't really want to see the team rewarded by backing in anyway.

 

 

Great write up. 

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7 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

So where does that leave the Bills chances over their final 6 games?  Basically this:

 

(Note:  I'm aware that this is educated guess speculation, not math.  There are literally millions of permutations of what could happen, but I'm talking about what's likely to happen)

 

6-0 - Division Crown

5-1 - Division Crown

4-2 - Wildcard lock, solid chance at division

3-3 - Solid chance at wildcard, tossup for division

2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division

1-5 - Miss playoffs

0-6 - Miss playoffs

 

In conclusion - the scary looking wall of 6-3 teams isn't actually all that scary.  We only miss the playoffs by playing a lot worse than we have for the first 10 games and if that's the case I don't really want to see the team rewarded by backing in anyway.

 

 

 

Nice summary but I'd be little more precise with conclusions. I think it is quite a bit better than you present it:

 

6-0 - Division Crown

5-1 - Division Crown

4-2 - Wildcard lock, great chance at division even if one loss is against the Dolphins, virtual lock of division if we win against them

3-3 - Great chance at wildcard (actually almost lock), tossup for division if loss is against the Dolphins, great chance at division if we win against them

2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division

1-5 - Miss playoffs

0-6 - Miss playoffs

 

I also wouldn't call our chances at 2-4 as "outside", we have very reasonable chance to get there with 9-7 even if we win "wrong" games, i.e. 49ers in this scenario. But if we win "right" games, i.e. Dolphins and Pats, we have like 70%+ chance to get in (and its still tossup if Dolphins somehow win all other games).

 

As far as PO is concerned, we are in good shape even we are mediocre from now on (which I don't think will happen, I expect us to win 4+ games).

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The NFL gave the AFCE teams the killer schedule this year.  In past years, we'd have been lucky to win one of the three western team games we did (Seattle, Rams, Raiders, all of which have very good teams).  We lost to the Chiefs and Cardinals, both very good teams.  And now we're through the mid-season gauntlet we were all afraid of.

 

Of the remaining six games, only the Steelers looks to be a likely loss.  The Bills must be favored to beat the sinking Chargers and the flailing Broncos.  They are better than the injured 49ers and Patriots, although those are both away games.  And then it comes down to Miami.  Miami plays the Chiefs, Patriots and Raiders, three in a row, and if they can win all three of those then hats off to them.  More likely they lose two of those games.  I think we'll head into the final game with both teams at 10-5.  Did anyone mention that the final game is in balmy, sunny, Orchard Park in early January?  And that if we beat the Pats, we win the division even if we finish with the same record as Miami?

 

I say the Bills still have the inside track to the AFCE crown. 

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