TBN Jim Kubiak on Allen in Cardinals game

[Putin]

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Awesome play!

To be fair, Gene has a point. Josh A is 14th in INT percentage right now. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing.htm#passing::pass_yds, and over the past few games the rate has climbed. He does need to clean up his game in that area. 

What happens if that Hail Mary pass does happen? 
What would we be talking about ? 
Bills being 8-2 and another AMAZING game winning drive by Josh ? Or maybe that BEAUTIFUL TD throw to Diggs ? 

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Putin

[WideNine]

1 minute ago, Simon said:

 

I don't think he knew he was going to do it until he actually got to the line and saw the Dallas Dfront standing around.

And he threw a couple sick dimes just to get them there in under 30 seconds.

 

Here's the whole game-winning "drive"

 

 

Seriously?  OK, then that took some nads to just go for it as your center and guards would not be blocking worth a damn.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Allen still struggles with bringing his eyes down to the free man underneath, he is stubbornly anti-check-down and it is an odd problem to have with so many past Bills QBs afraid to chuck the rock. Still Allen needs to improve upon seeing those outlet guys that are just shallow of the sticks because it is a win to get a fresh set of downs to live and try to score again.

 

I was trying to figure out the robber concept that Peterson was playing. In another post I had mentioned that he seemed to be playing more like a free safety at times, but the analysis by Kubiak shed some light on that. I was thinking it was just veteran savvy coming off his man or abandoning his zone much like White did in our prior game, but it appears that coming off his man was by design with how they were covering Diggs.

 

It is another growing experience. Daboll had given Allen some ways to beat the two-deep zone looks, but those ways of bringing guys free with that deep post or with crossing routes are susceptible to that robber concept and Allen who has a tendency of staring down his receivers will have to remember to discipline himself again to look off the robber/FS or go somewhere else with the ball.

 

You can kind of see the chess match of defensive strategies that teams are throwing at Allen. If we had a running game worth a spit, it would not all be on his shoulders every game and it would force those safeties to play closer to the line or teams would have to sub in their heavy-nickel type packages. If we cannot run against 4-man fronts and Allen is forced into one-dimensional games where he is throwing into 2-deep zone coverage against teams with quality defensive backs, interceptions will happen.

 

Daboll has to figure out a way to better disguise running plays - I currently feel we are somehow telegraphing our runs and teams do seem to be subbing in their run stuffing personnel on downs where we run. I like it when we start out empty with Singletary or Moss lined up as receiver then motioning them into the backfield. I think it will help our team better understand how they are playing run with their zone packages. Also, we have to tip our hats to Arizona's defensive coach for that robber concept, timed blitzes, and they even had that odd stacked defensive line look over Ike's guard spot that stuffed our runs to Dawkins side that have been pretty productive for us.

 

Some things to work on over their bye.

 

Great post, WideNine, thank you! 

 

Yes, I agree, that part of Kubiak's analysis about how Peterson covered us is very interesting.  If Tre is free-lancing, that's more subject to the coverage breakdowns we saw on the Moore TD as opposed to this which appears to be methodically working to create a robber.

 

We need a run game, no question.

 

One key point to remember is even with all that, we were very close to beating them.  Another key point is again to Allen: TAKE THE CHECKDOWN DAMMIT!

[Simon]

5 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Seriously?  OK, then that took some nads to just go for it as your center and guards would not be blocking worth a damn.

Exactly.

He was miked up that day and told his boys on the sideline that he was going to just clock it until he got up there and saw the situation.

 

The way Allen finished the Cards game and has finished multiple others, I can see him pulling off something similar when he's a little older.

 

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, Putin said:

What happens if that Hail Mary pass does happen? 
What would we be talking about ? 
Bills being 8-2 and another AMAZING game winning drive by Josh ? Or maybe that BEAUTIFUL TD throw to Diggs ? 

 

I'm a huge fan of Josh Allen. I'd still say he made an inordinate number of bad plays in that game.  

8 minutes ago, Simon said:

Exactly.

He was miked up that day and told his boys on the sideline that he was going to just clock it until he got up there and saw the situation.

 

The way Allen finished the Cards game and has finished multiple others, I can see him pulling off something similar when he's a little older.

 

As I was saying. This was the last play of the game: 

.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Putin said:

What happens if that Hail Mary pass does happen? 
What would we be talking about ? 
Bills being 8-2 and another AMAZING game winning drive by Josh ? Or maybe that BEAUTIFUL TD throw to Diggs ? 

 

I’ve seen / heard people today saying that it was amazing and 2 also said that 99 out of 100 that would be the drive of the week

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

This board as a whole reads at roughly a 3rd grade level. Listening comprehension is roughly at a 1st grade level. 

 

That seems like a bit of a needlessly broad brush.  We have some noise, but I think we have a good amount of signal, too. 🤷‍♂️ 

Much of it just opinion, of course, and worth what anyone pays

 

45 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I enjoy Kubiak... really neutral POV IMO. I personally like Cover1 because it’s free to watch and I learn better with visual aides and listening than I do reading. I think Cover1 is a really good source but tend to sugar coat some things here and there... Kubiak, like I said is neutral. 

 

With Kubiak is bring up the coaches film on NFL Gamepass, watch the play he comments on, read what he says, then watch it again. 

 

I get a lot more when I see it rather than read it, as well.

 

45 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

It’s amazing the sources there are publicly available. You’d be surprised at how many pro teams keep tabs on these guys internally and learn from their breakdowns. We do it all the time... amazing free source for teams to learn from... even if they’re not as polished as the breakdown by the team themselves. 

 

Interesting!  I suppose it's a bit like free consulting - might not be correct due to not knowing the internal details but an outside perspective never hurts

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm a huge fan of Josh Allen. I'd still say he made an inordinate number of bad plays in that game. 

 

What's your definition of inordinate number? 

How do you define bad play?

 

Since Kubiak conveniently provides a description of many of the plays, could you share your list?

 

I don't say this to be nit-picky, but if it's going to serve as a basis for any productive discussion, we do need to start from the same understanding what a "bad play" is to you and so forth.  You know, so we aren't all "inordinate number" = 4 or something like that.

 

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That seems like a bit of a needlessly broad brush.  We have some noise, but I think we have a good amount of signal, too. 🤷‍♂️ 

Much of it just opinion, of course, and worth what anyone pays

 

 

With Kubiak is bring up the coaches film on NFL Gamepass, watch the play he comments on, read what he says, then watch it again. 

 

I get a lot more when I see it rather than read it, as well.

 

 

Interesting!  I suppose it's a bit like free consulting - might not be correct due to not knowing the internal details but an outside perspective never hurts

I need to do a much better job of finding my voice on here. Definitely a broad brush, was supposed to be fairly sarcastic but my tendency to speak hyperbole tends to hurt me when typing as opposed to speaking. 
 

Love the rest of your points! 

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

What's your definition of inordinate number? 

How do you define bad play?

 

Since Kubiak conveniently provides a description of many of the plays, could you share your list?

 

I don't say this to be nit-picky, but if it's going to serve as a basis for any productive discussion, we do need to start from the same understanding what a "bad play" is to you and so forth.  You know, so we aren't all "inordinate number" = 4 or something like that.

 

Four balls that *should* have been picked (and two were). A crazy decision to heave a ball into the middle of the scrum to avoid a sack. Missing on both deep throws by 5+ yards. The throws weren't even close. He made a lot of good plays too. But 5 legit bad ones plus the return of deep-ball inaccuracy on the two such throws he made adds up to a lot of negative plays. Anyway, anytime you throw four clearly interceptable balls, you're making an inordinate number of bad plays.   

Edited November 17, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Four balls that *should* have been picked (and two were). A crazy decision to heave a ball into the middle of the scrum to avoid a sack. Missing on both deep throws by 5+ yards. The throws weren't even close. He made a lot of good plays too. But 5 legit bad ones plus the return of deep-ball inaccuracy on the two such throws he made adds up to a lot of negative plays. Anyway, anytime you throw four clearly interceptable balls, you're making an inordinate number of bad plays.   

 

So don't know if you have read it, but I thought Kubiak's assessment of the interceptions was interesting.   What's your take?

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So don't know if you have read it, but I thought Kubiak's assessment of the interceptions was interesting.   What's your take?

I disagree with him. My read on each of the INT-possible throws.

 

1. He threw from an unstable base and overthrew the receiver (which was not Singletary) by a lot irrespective of Peterson.

2. Just a bad throw that Peterson dropped. Don't know what he was looking at there. I don't think this one is complicated.

3. Inaccurate throw behind Davis that the trail cover guy could make a play on. Ball needs to be on the other side of the receiver.

4. My read at the time, and I'm standing by it, is that he wanted to get Knox back in the game after that killer penalty and threw a reckless, inaccurate heave into coverage that failed. He regularly tries to pick up his teammates after they make an error, and it's an admirable trait. But it didn't work in this case because there were two defenders in the area and Knox was covered. 

 

Just my opinion, of course.

 

 

[JGMcD2]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I disagree with him. My read on each of the INT-possible throws.

 

1. He threw from an unstable base and overthrew the receiver (which was not Singletary) by a lot irrespective of Peterson.

2. Just a bad throw that Peterson dropped. Don't know what he was looking at there. I don't think this one is complicated.

3. Inaccurate throw behind Davis that the trail cover guy could make a play on. Ball needs to be on the other side of the receiver.

4. My read at the time, and I'm standing by it, is that he wanted to get Knox back in the game after that killer penalty and threw a reckless, inaccurate heave into coverage that failed. He regularly tries to pick up his teammates after they make an error, and it's an admirable trait. But it didn't work in this case because there were two defenders in the area and Knox was covered. 

 

Just my opinion, of course.

 

 

Dave, just out of curiosity, because your points are really well thought out. I agree with some of Jim’s points for sure, but some of your perspective as well. 
 

What’s your football background? Because I can tell you have to have some form of a background in the game. 
 

EDIT:
 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure Jim said Singletary wasn’t the target as well, but his poor route causes him to be in the area and impact the throw to I believe John Brown? 

 

He also said it was an inaccurate throw to Davis, because Josh was late in his progression on that throw. Which tightened the margin for error. 
 

Yes, he may have forced that throw to Knox (I actually agree with you on the thought process, you nailed what Josh does) but Jim also made a point that the coverage was designed to be confusing and hidden. He made the point that there’s really no way Josh could know that Peterson was a robber in that situation. So yes, he forced it, but maybe Josh’s process wasn’t entirely bad. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by JGMcD2

[Inigo Montoya]

3 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

Mahomes still only has one pick to Allens 7. Allen has been more reckless with the ball lately...

 

2 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

I was born a Bills fan. Maybe that is different than choosing a team?

 

2 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

I think the only reason you're fooled is due to being overly emotional about your team, which is one way to do it. No worries...

 

You should go get a library card this afternoon.  There is a great book I'd highly recommend, it's called The Power of Positive Thinking by Dr. Norman Vincent Peale. I think it could be a real game changer for you.

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Inigo Montoya

[Simon]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

My read at the time, and I'm standing by it, is that he wanted to get Knox back in the game after that killer penalty and threw a reckless, inaccurate heave into coverage that failed. He regularly tries to pick up his teammates after they make an error, and it's an admirable trait.

Also the first thing that popped into my head.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

Bills traded the Mahomes pick, so kind of? The way Tre White has been playing, I'd say that was a huge organizational mistake. 

 

Dear God NOT the "Bills traded Mahomes pick" reason to crap on Allen.  I thought we were way past that point.

 

 

2 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

No, but I think Mahomes on this Bills team makes the Bills better than they currently are. Anyone who doesn't think the same isn't being forthright IMO.

 

Why be so limiting.  I could come up with a dozen NFL players who if they were on the Bills would make them a better team.

 

 

 

 

[Da webster guy]

2 hours ago, teef said:

yeah, but i bet a few of the ships blow up with passengers in them.  i also bet the idea of living on mars is far too aggressive for our generation, and we'll probably both be long dead before anyone is actually able to live on mars.

 

Wait, you mean going to live on a planet where the average temp is 81 below zero and there is no oxygen doesn't excite you?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

He has led the league three times in game winning drives, and in 2016 had 8. The Lions only won 9 games that season! The Lions have 4 wins now and he has 3 game winning drives. He should have 4 given that season opener too. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StafMa00.htm

 

Yea if there has been a problem with Stafford it has been his play Q1-3 especially against better defenses. He has always been good late in games. I think Matt Stafford has been a top 10 QB pretty much his entire time in the league completely wasted by a useless organisation.

[BananaB]

No game is gonna perfect. Allen has made huge strides so far this year,  nit picking every play is pointless. Especially when you are dropping back 50 times a game because your run game is *****.

 

 Complaining about trading the Mahommes pick is even stupider. If anyone knew what Mahommes would become he would of went first overall.  After this season I bet a lot of people will be saying Allen should of been the first overall pick in his draft as well. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by BananaB

[Punching Bag]

12 minutes ago, BananaB said:

No game is gonna perfect. Allen has made huge strides so far this year,  nit picking every play is pointless. Especially when you are dropping back 50 times a game because your run game is *****.

 

 Complaining about trading the Mahommes pick is even stupider. If anyone knew what Mahommes would become he would of went first overall.  After this season I bet a lot of people will be saying Allen should of been the first overall pick in his draft as well. 

 

No of course Baker Mayfield will be.  You are talking about the NFL Advertising spokeman draft right?

 

I wonder how many endorsements Allen would have if he was drafted #1 by Cleveland.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure Jim said Singletary wasn’t the target as well, but his poor route causes him to be in the area and impact the throw to I believe John Brown?

 

You are correct, Kubiak said the throw was to Brown on the crosser, and that Singletary didn't "do his job" by running his Go route with conviction. 

 

I'm the one who pointed out that the NFL game log has it noted as a pass to Singletary as he is the closest receiver to the pass.  Pretty sure Motor saw Peterson and saw the high pass and ran in there to break it up, which he did, but it was clear that the pass was to Brown. Josh was locked in on him all the way....and Peterson was locked in on Josh's eyes. 

 

Bad throw, no question.  Josh's feet weren't right, he threw off his back foot, and the ball sailed high.  Bad decision as well as Knox was open for the first.