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The 3rd Quarter Elephant in the room


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3 hours ago, prissythecat said:

Speaking of derailed.  I'm surprised that you haven't yet posted about the Pats possibly sneaking in to the playoff picture.  Something along the lines of  "Looks like Belichick is willing to reach into his bag of tricks or pull out all the stops to win games.   Maybe we shouldn't be surprised if the Pats win 6 out of the next 7"?

That's a plausible scenario given their remaining schedule. 

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"Good teams do this. Good teams don't do that."   I don't even know what these mythical "good teams" are that everyone talks about. Are the Ravens a good team? They just lost. Didn't even pu

Miracle Hail Mary aside, where this game was truly lost was the 3rd quarter. Yes the Bills capitalized off a turnover early in the period to take a 23-9 lead, but from there it was 17 unanswered point

i wonder if they have a big pasta meal at the half.  somethings up.

1 hour ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The division might come down to week 17 at home against Miami on a crisp and cool January 3rd.  Figure temperature in the low 30's.  With Denver the Denver forecast to be sunny and a high of 40 and the NY area long range look is in the mid-50's for the week after the Bills game will be their only below freezing weather game. 

 

I hesitate to predict W/L here but its conceivable they win most of them or potentially lose the last 4.

 

Miami is

At Broncos

At Jets

Bengals

Chiefs

Patriots

at Raiders

at Biills

 

The Patriots are going to eat tua alive....they may beat us as well though lol 

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The defense consistently underperforms in every 3rd qtr for the last 2 years. And the coaches do a poor job of anticipating how their opponent will change their game plan. And the cherry on the cake is Josh struggles in the 3rd. I almost don't want to even watch  3rd quarters anymore. 

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3 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

That actually wouldn't surprise me, I have got food poisoning from Applebees 3 times in Chicago and 1 time in Kentucky. I have seen the food prep areas of 2 Applebees and I will never eat there again. 

Haven't you heard the saying "the third time is the charm"?

 

How about "There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again."

 

Just couldn't stay away huh?:cry:

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4 hours ago, High Football IQ said:

Miracle Hail Mary aside, where this game was truly lost was the 3rd quarter. Yes the Bills capitalized off a turnover early in the period to take a 23-9 lead, but from there it was 17 unanswered points from the Cardinals winning the quarter 17-7.

 

Digging deeper, since start of last season, in the 3rd quarter the Bills have scored 85 points (27th ranked) while giving up 142 points (6th most)

 

This season it’s 30 points scored (27th) and 76 given up (1st).

 

McDermott said yesterday that thing have changed in Buffalo and it was simply an unfortunate circumstance at the end but the bottom line is that good teams don't consistently blow 2 score leads....good teams don't completely disappear in the 3rd quarter....good teams are able to run the football and not give up 200 yards on the ground to their opponent every week.

 

At this point the platitudes are tiring and this team keeps talking about what they need to fix and to not have the mental awareness as a collective organization of what keeps happening after halftime is simply inexcusable for a team that insist they aren't the same old Bills.

 

They now have 2 weeks to think about a loss that shouldn't have happened and if this team is truly for real they come out and blow out the chargers from start to finish including winning the 3rd quarter. If not don't be surprised if we look at this cardinals debacle as the turning point that completely derailed a once promising season.

I was contemplating this issue myself. McDermott needs to ask Dabol for his 1st half playbook each week, tell Dabol to go make a new one, then give him back his original first half playbook once the 3rd quarter starts. Simple fix lmao

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6 minutes ago, Billsfanatixs said:

I was contemplating this issue myself. McDermott needs to ask Dabol for his 1st half playbook each week, tell Dabol to go make a new one, then give him back his original first half playbook once the 3rd quarter starts. Simple fix lmao

 

Even the elite teams in the league have a few hiccups each year, but for this happen week after week for 1 1/2+ seasons now is a clear trend and whatever this coaching staff is doing in the lockerroom at halftime it needs to be burnt to the ground and reimagined.

 

It simply defies the law of averages for both this offense and defense to play so poorly in the 3rd period regardless of whether they get the ball or not to start the half. Even ST has been terrible in the 3rd quarter in most cases (i.e. shank punts, taking kicks out of the endzone to create bad field position, etc).

 

Regardless of what the score is at halftime against the Chargers, they must come out of the bye with a plan to remedy this or the rest of the season will probably be pretty dismal.

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Mean revision plays a lot into this.   Generally, the Bills player better in the first half, and when you put a good team in a bit of a hole, the other team exerts extra effort and passion into getting back into the game - and mean reversion means they'll go back to winning 1v1 battles, which is ultimately going to lead to plays. 

 

Take a look at how Zona scored, and it was really Kyler Murray.  Addison and the other DEs did remarkably well in containing Kyler in the first half in those zone reads, in the 2nd half we lost contain multiple times, and Murray took advantage. That's not necessarily on the coaching staff, as much as mean reversion to Kyler getting his plays on ZRs, and Addison not being nearly good enough to consistently contain them. 
 

Of course, if you look at the tape, I'm sure you'll find areas where the bills struggled to adjust schematically. But mostly? These are NFL athletes, and a parity league...almost all your games come down to 1-2 possesions, and it's because athletes aren't going to win their battles, and EVERYTHING comes back to the middle of your curve. 

Any GM's goal is finding players who win their battles more than 50% of the time. But even if you're an elite player, that means you're still losing 1v1 battles on occasion. Right now, the Bills have lot more on the right side of that 50% than they do on the wrong side, and that inevitably leads to the Bills getting leads. 

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3 hours ago, Real McNasty said:

I've never seen a fanbase complaining about being 7-3 (while sitting 4-0 in our division) cry so friggin much. The "point differential or wins of 10+ more points".........  Are some of you people for real? Enjoy the damn season. 

 

To the thread:

The Bills simply are not making the right halftime adjustments. You almost can't fault them for not trying to stick what was sucessfull in the 1st half though. McD and staff have to make quicker adjustments before the end of the 3rd or 4th quarter.

I would not call it complaining. Its more looking at the ceiling for the team. How will the play in the playoffs. Can this regime run an elite football team or only a good football team. 

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5 hours ago, msw2112 said:

The 3rd quarter thing is really difficult to explain, because they seem to be fine in the 4th quarter.  Although the post directly above this one, which was written while I was writing this one (thus the edit) does as good a job of explaining it as I have seen.

I have been saying the same thing...we are better at making an adjustment to the opponents half time adjustment than we are at making half time adjustments it is pretty odd

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2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

I would not call it complaining. Its more looking at the ceiling for the team. How will the play in the playoffs. Can this regime run an elite football team or only a good football team. 

Its really impossible to predict and I feel like we are all unjustly factoring in the performance of past teams to try to predict what this bills team will do.  If I had a dollar for every time someone predicted 'this will be a billsy loss' the second we gave up the lead in all the GameDay threads and they ended up being wrong id be a rich man right now lol so clearly something is different.  Its just as likely we get healthy and go on a run as it is that Miami continues their run. 

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3 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Its really impossible to predict and I feel like we are all unjustly factoring in the performance of past teams to try to predict what this bills team will do.  If I had a dollar for every time someone predicted 'this will be a billsy loss' the second we gave up the lead in all the GameDay threads and they ended up being wrong id be a rich man right now lol so clearly something is different.  Its just as likely we get healthy and go on a run as it is that Miami continues their run. 

Yes and no. The fact this team has not blown anyone away is concerning. The positive take is they are able to win close games and the fact they have played good teams (ex Jets). The negative is that they have let teams back in games when games look headed to blow out land. The defense has shown it is unable to stop anything for long stretches. Even even the 0-9 Jets were in the game late, outside of the Bills game and NE game, the Jets have lost most games by 20+. Other playoff teams are destroying them.

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3 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Yes and no. The fact this team has not blown anyone away is concerning. The positive take is they are able to win close games and the fact they have played good teams (ex Jets). The negative is that they have let teams back in games when games look headed to blow out land. The defense has shown it is unable to stop anything for long stretches. Even even the 0-9 Jets were in the game late, outside of the Bills game and NE game, the Jets have lost most games by 20+. Other playoff teams are destroying them.

I can see that point of view but I dont personally put much stock in this as we are not actively trying to win a game by x amount of points.  For example we get a turnover on downs in Seattle territory towards the end of the game and could likely put up 7 if we wanted to then you have your 17 blowout of the superbowl favorite at the time.  I dont put much stock in close division games either as the teams familiarity with eachother often makes the games close when on paper they should not be how many times have we seen Miami or the jets or even us on occasion giving the pats a scare when we had absolutely no business being in the game only for them to pull it out at the end...thats what good teams do.  It doesnt feel lucky or unsustainable when we win close games this year as it often has in the past.  The defense which has been incapable of stopping anything for long stretches has frequently taken over the game in the fourth quarter and yesterday wouldve been no exception save for an extremely lucky play.  I would argue our predictions that the team will fall apart/miss the playoffs or not keep up with the dolphins are more based on raw emotions and gut feelings than anything and a lot of that is based on the demoralizing way the game ended last night.  Sitting at 8-2 with a 3-0 record against three playoff caliber NFC west teams would have most of this board feeling considerably differently right now and as far as predicting future outcomes goes this is literally the same team that went into Arizona banged up and played well enough to win no matter what the scoreboard said

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6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

KC, GB, and TB all have 4-5 blowout wins this year. Pittsburgh has a couple and Baltimore has 3. I think the issue is the Bills' inability to either run or stop the run. That's OK in the first half, where Daboll rolls out a ton of good passing plays that get the Bills scores. However, teams adjust in the second half, and we're unable to counteract the adjustments by imposing our will in the run game. Same goes for stopping the run -- McDermott rolls out great coverage schemes in the first half which stymie teams, but in the second half they get figured out and the opposing attacks become effective because they can achieve balance. Whereas only the running game worked in the first half, both passing and running work in the second half. The AZ and Rams games are cases in point. 

What I saw was the Bills stubbornly running into stacked boxes, playing into their hands. Other teams know that McD turtles when up by 2 scores and tries to control the ball and the clock. They were crowding the line of scrimmage daring the Bills to go over the top, the Bills ran into the line for no gain instead.

  The D had no killer instinct either, 34 secs to go 75 yards and they go into the softest prevent allowing AZ to get into position for that HM. Then on the HM they have no tall receiver in the EZ, nobody pushes Hop off his spot, he wasn't even harassed. They all just stood there waiting for the ball and let him high point it. That is so weak. You take a penalty before you let that happen, and how often are they even called on those desperation scrum plays. This coaching mindset of trying to hang on instead of burying them is a losers mentality and they need to change it. 

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7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The defense consistently underperforms in every 3rd qtr for the last 2 years. And the coaches do a poor job of anticipating how their opponent will change their game plan. And the cherry on the cake is Josh struggles in the 3rd. I almost don't want to even watch  3rd quarters anymore. 

 

Dude, once the 3rd got rolling Sunday night, I was just getting pissed at every clock stoppage. It was clear it was a classic sluggish Q3 for us. I just wanted to get out without too much of a hole to dig out of. 

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Some more stats that are extremely concerning in regards to the Bills historic 3rd quarter struggles via Buffalo Rumblings:

 

Quote

At their current pace (-4.6 points per game) the 2020 Bills are on pace to have -73.6 third quarter scoring margin. That would blow away the current low mark for third quarter scoring margin by a playoff team. The 1986 New York Jets claim are the current leaders (?) at -65. It would be the 16th-worst third quarter margin for any team, regardless of final record or playoff status.

 

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On 11/16/2020 at 10:38 AM, High Football IQ said:

 

 

They now have 2 weeks to think about a loss that shouldn't have happened and if this team is truly for real they come out and blow out the chargers from start to finish including winning the 3rd quarter. If not don't be surprised if we look at this cardinals debacle as the turning point that completely derailed a once promising season.

I've been saying all season, that this team has an aerobic conditioning issue. I've noticed players huffing, and puffing way too early in a given contest.(Especially, the 'D')  It's certainly an easy enough problem to fix, and could up performance on the field,  on both sides of the ball.

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Bills are 28th in the NFL this year averaging 3.0 points in the 3rd quarter of games. 

However, they are 2nd only to the Chiefs in 4th quarter scoring averaging 9.3 points in the 4th Q.  

 

Week 17 will be interesting because Miami is actually worse than the Bills in 3rd quarter scoring averaging 2.9 points in the 3rd quarter and not great in the 4th quarter scoring either at 6.9 points per game...

 

Dolphins lead the league in 1st quarter scoring averaging 8.9 points per game with Bills 2nd at 7.3...scoring could be fast and furious in the first quarter when we match up...

Edited by matter2003
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17 hours ago, Turk71 said:

What I saw was the Bills stubbornly running into stacked boxes, playing into their hands. Other teams know that McD turtles when up by 2 scores and tries to control the ball and the clock. They were crowding the line of scrimmage daring the Bills to go over the top, the Bills ran into the line for no gain instead.

  The D had no killer instinct either, 34 secs to go 75 yards and they go into the softest prevent allowing AZ to get into position for that HM. Then on the HM they have no tall receiver in the EZ, nobody pushes Hop off his spot, he wasn't even harassed. They all just stood there waiting for the ball and let him high point it. That is so weak. You take a penalty before you let that happen, and how often are they even called on those desperation scrum plays. This coaching mindset of trying to hang on instead of burying them is a losers mentality and they need to change it. 

The coaching mindset is dangerous. We sat on that 16-0 lead and turtledove into a conservative mode. I'm seeing it again this year. Vrabel had no problem running up the score late on us because he's a  Belichick disciple. McD is afraid to hurt someone's feelings. It's kinda pathetic. 

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