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On 11/20/2020 at 3:55 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I was saying this about Singletary even last year in fairness. He had good production in 2019 but a lot came on some big early season runs his average declined as the year went on and teams got tape on him. He can make people miss in space, but teams know if they set the edge properly he doesn't have the burst to get outside and he is never going to be a dominant inside runner. 

 

 

There was also some crazy stat about Singletary running against a ton of 6 man boxes while Gore saw almost exclusively stacked ones.

 

 

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On 11/19/2020 at 3:02 PM, Agent 91 said:

My point is he wasn't really a 5.1 ypc back last year either. He did his best work in big chunk plays he wasn't getting you a consistent 5.1 a carry. The same way he's not getting you a consistent 4.1 this year. Give him a few big chunk plays and he will be right up there at the same average. We can massage the numbers as you have definitely done research but the point is at this point he's on pace for 150 less yards in 12 games with less carries than he had last season. But he more than makes up for the void in the receiving game. Thats why I say he's par for the course. As a feature. Thats bound to happen. But I THINK you can agree, we need more back there

 

 

That doesn't show he's not a 5.1 YPC back.

 

It shows that he gets yards the same way everyone does, in larger amounts sometimes and smaller amounts in others. Statistics tend to work in the bell curve. You get a few very small values, a few very large, and more towards the middle. 

 

That's not Singletary. That's running backs, football statistics and in the end it's just the way the world works. Look at other RBs, you'll find that nearly all of them have a few games where they get higher stats than normal. So unless you're going to go around and cut off the top three games of every RB, don't do it to Singletary either. He is absolutely a 4.1 YPC guy this year and a 5.1 last year.

 

It would make just as much sense (none) to say that Singletary had two games below 3.0, so he's not really a 4.1 YPC guy, he's actually a 4.4 YPC guy. You say he "wasn't getting a consistent 5.1 a carry." I'd bet you won't find a single player in NFL history with more than 10 carries who consistently gets their average carry. It's a virtual statistical impossibility.

 

Should we say that Derrick Henry isn't really a 4.71 YPC guy because he had three games this year where he was over 5.4 and two when he was over 6.2? Sorry, this is the way stats work. You can't pull out the numbers you don't like, look only at the rest, and then think you've proven anything.

Edited by Thurman#1

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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That doesn't show he's not a 5.1 YPC back.

 

It shows that he gets yards the same way everyone does, in larger amounts sometimes and smaller amounts in others. Statistics tend to work in the bell curve. You get a few very small values, a few very large, and more towards the middle. 

 

That's not Singletary. That's running backs, football statistics and in the end it's just the way the world works. Look at other RBs, you'll find that nearly all of them have a few games where they get higher stats than normal. So unless you're going to go around and cut off the top three games of every RB, don't do it to Singletary either. He is absolutely a 4.1 YPC guy this year and a 5.1 last year.

 

It would make just as much sense (none) to say that Singletary had two games below 3.0, so he's not really a 4.1 YPC guy, he's actually a 4.4 YPC guy. You say he "wasn't getting a consistent 5.1 a carry." I'd bet you won't find a single player in NFL history with more than 10 carries who consistently gets their average carry. It's a virtual statistical impossibility.

 

Should we say that Derrick Henry isn't really a 4.71 YPC guy because he had three games this year where he was over 5.4 and two when he was over 6.2? Sorry, this is the way stats work. You can't pull out the numbers you don't like, look only at the rest, and then think you've proven anything.

 

While you are absolutely right on how averages work my concern on Singletary is he has now played 23 games in his career. His best 3 average yards per carry came in his first 4 games. Since then he has only averaged over 6 yards per carry once in 19 games (Patriots a few weeks ago). That isn't just the normal up and down that is a concerning pattern.

 

To me that is simply an impact of NFL teams getting tape on him. If you keep contain he doesn't have that explosive acceleration to beat you to the edge that say a Shady McCoy had in his prime. Devin is great at making people miss in space but getting him to that space is tough and teams are funnelling him between the tackles where he just isn't ever gonna be a dominant back.

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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While you are absolutely right on how averages work my concern on Singletary is he has now played 23 games in his career. His best 3 average yards per carry came in his first 4 games. Since then he has only averaged over 6 yards per carry once in 19 games (Patriots a few weeks ago). That isn't just the normal up and down that is a concerning pattern.

 

To me that is simply an impact of NFL teams getting tape on him. If you keep contain he doesn't have that explosive acceleration to beat you to the edge that say a Shady McCoy had in his prime. Devin is great at making people miss in space but getting him to that space is tough and teams are funnelling him between the tackles where he just isn't ever gonna be a dominant back.

 

 

I wasn't answering you, Bill. I was referring to something entirely different.

 

As to your point, I don't find it worrying that Singletary didn't live up, particularly, to those first two games, during which he managed 17.5 YPC on four attempts in the first game and 9.5 yards on six attempts in the second game. I mean, in those first two games he managed 127 yards on 10 carries. He was absolutely never going to maintain anything close to that level. 

 

That was simply a small sample size.

 

Did they figure him out after that? Well, enough to stop him from getting 12.7 YPC, yeah. 

 

But as for the rest of last year  - leaving out those first four games just for the sake of argument - in the remainder of the season he went over 5.0 per carry in 4 out of 8 games and over 4.5 in 6 out of the 8. I don't find that concerning. Just the opposite. And again, that's leaving out the first four games, which contained his three best.

 

Instead, I find concerning the weakness of the whole run game this year. I'm hoping that when we finally get Winters on the bench and the best five OLs out there things will look up a bit. That's my best guess as well, but we'll have to see.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Thurman#1

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My concern with Singletary is that he looked completely uninspired last Sunday. The sort of things we all saw come from a player that’s not awake in the moment. Maybe he needs the crowd in the stands? Maybe the west coast trip doesn’t agree with him? All’s I know was I kept screaming WAKE UP at the television every time he was ‘involved’ in a play. 

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3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I wasn't answering you, Bill. I was referring to something entirely different.

 

As to your point, I don't find it worrying that Singletary didn't live up, particularly, to those first two games, during which he managed 17.5 YPC on four attempts in the first game and 9.5 yards on six attempts in the second game. I mean, in those first two games he managed 127 yards on 10 carries. He was absolutely never going to maintain anything close to that level. 

 

That was simply a small sample size.

 

Did they figure him out after that? Well, enough to stop him from getting 12.7 YPC, yeah. 

 

But as for the rest of last year  - leaving out those first four games just for the sake of argument - in the remainder of the season he went over 5.0 per carry in 4 out of 8 games and over 4.5 in 6 out of the 8. I don't find that concerning. Just the opposite. And again, that's leaving out the first four games, which contained his three best.

 

Instead, I find concerning the weakness of the whole run game this year. I'm hoping that when we finally get Winters on the bench and the best five OLs out there things will look up a bit. That's my best guess as well, but we'll have to see.

 

 

 

 

They seem to really like Winters.... I don't get it. He is terrible. 

 

Every now and then this regime has some weird affiliation for certain players that aren't any good.... and often have better players behind them on the bench.

 

Yeldon is another guy I don't get why he rides the inactive list game in and game out. 

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On 11/22/2020 at 3:07 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That doesn't show he's not a 5.1 YPC back.

 

It shows that he gets yards the same way everyone does, in larger amounts sometimes and smaller amounts in others. Statistics tend to work in the bell curve. You get a few very small values, a few very large, and more towards the middle. 

 

That's not Singletary. That's running backs, football statistics and in the end it's just the way the world works. Look at other RBs, you'll find that nearly all of them have a few games where they get higher stats than normal. So unless you're going to go around and cut off the top three games of every RB, don't do it to Singletary either. He is absolutely a 4.1 YPC guy this year and a 5.1 last year.

 

It would make just as much sense (none) to say that Singletary had two games below 3.0, so he's not really a 4.1 YPC guy, he's actually a 4.4 YPC guy. You say he "wasn't getting a consistent 5.1 a carry." I'd bet you won't find a single player in NFL history with more than 10 carries who consistently gets their average carry. It's a virtual statistical impossibility.

 

Should we say that Derrick Henry isn't really a 4.71 YPC guy because he had three games this year where he was over 5.4 and two when he was over 6.2? Sorry, this is the way stats work. You can't pull out the numbers you don't like, look only at the rest, and then think you've proven anything.

We will discuss after the season or whatever requisites are needed to show that he is in fact not a true number 1 back. My original statement is this is the guy we should have known him to be. And if you want to dismiss the fact he had 2 game  10 carries averaging over 13 yards during that stretch thats fine. But if you are expecting him to be that guy. You may be waiting a while. Long before I introduced stats or anything, the original statement is. He settled into who he really is. If you notice I used ALL stats. And all stats prove he is about the same as he was last year In production.

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Isn't Jordan Howard still sitting out there? Him and Moss can be that physical tandem needed late in the season. Is a home run threat a necessity at RB? Give me a back who can break off an occasional 30-40 yd scamper. If I remember correctly Thurman Thomas didn't have breakaway speed

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On 11/16/2020 at 12:27 PM, Saint Doug said:

RBs are a dime-a-dozen, right? You just plug any late round back in and we’re good, right?

 

 

Right. In spirit anyway. You don't need to spend a first on an RB.

 

But if the OL isn't holding up it's part of the bargain, nearly any RB isn't going to do all that well.

 

 

2 hours ago, Agent 91 said:

We will discuss after the season or whatever requisites are needed to show that he is in fact not a true number 1 back. My original statement is this is the guy we should have known him to be. And if you want to dismiss the fact he had 2 game  10 carries averaging over 13 yards during that stretch thats fine. But if you are expecting him to be that guy. You may be waiting a while. Long before I introduced stats or anything, the original statement is. He settled into who he really is. If you notice I used ALL stats. And all stats prove he is about the same as he was last year In production.

 

 

Seriously? "All stats prove he is about the same as he was last year in production"? Really?

 

To me, a guy who goes for 5.1 YPC  (in all his stats) one year, which was third-best in the league that year and then ... 4.1 YPC (in all his stats), which put him at 28th best the next year has a pretty decent statistical argument that he isn't doing nearly as well the 2nd year.

Edited by Thurman#1

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Right. In spirit anyway. You don't need to spend a first on an RB.

 

But if the OL isn't holding up it's part of the bargain, nearly any RB isn't going to do all that well.

 

 

 

 

Seriously? "All stats prove he is about the same as he was last year in production"? Really?

 

To me, a guy who goes for 5.1 YPC  (in all his stats) one year, which was third-best in the league that year and then ... 4.1 YPC (in all his stats), which put him at 28th best the next year has a pretty decent statistical argument that he isn't doing nearly as well the 2nd year.

Why are we stuck on stats? Once again... the original statement was he is who a lot of us thought he was. You can quote 5.1 a carry until you are blue in the face. He is... who he is. Hes not a world beater. There is a reason the bills used a 3rd rd pick this year on an identical back. I did not omit ANY stats. I just used them to show how you bloat a 5.1 a carry average. As a matter of fact, i brought up stats because the original person i was speaking with was saying that Singletary was averaging 5.1 with more carries a game. So I pull the disparity in games where Singletary ran more than 10 time versus where he ran less. I didnt just manufacture stats to crusade. As a matter of fact stats were not mentioned in the original statement. 

 

If you like him thats fine. He's not the worst. But he is no Barry Sanders. 

 

Singletary is a Rb2 who is going to average 4.1 - 4.5 a year. And won't be a bell cow. We can revisit in a few years

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I think what has muted the running game is Stephon Diggs and the passing game.  Now that the Bills have committed to a dynamic passing offense with many talented players to get the ball, the focus has shifted away from the run game to the point of it suffering from "neglect."  Lee Smith and  Patrick DiMarco types are sacrificed for players that are bigger assets to the passing game.  Singletary and Moss can still be a big part of the 2020 offense, especially the one that the Bills will have entering the playoffs.  The game vs. the Pats shows what could be a more featured part of their last 6 games and I would not write them off just yet.  Let's see what the coaching staff may have learned during the bye.

 

As for the missed screen pass, it seemed like just a mistimed throw to a throttled down target who did not adjust very well to the ball placement.  It would have hit for something big and deserves more work and more tries.

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