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How much is Josh going to cost if hes a top 8 QB by next year?


Ramza86

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14 minutes ago, Rock'em Sock'em said:

2021 - Under rookie contract

2022 - 5th year option

2023 - Guessing the franchise tag will be around $35M+, hard to say.

 

If the level of his play continues to escalate, I'd hope a 5-year $200M contract extension starting in 2023 mostly guaranteed would be about right and would allow Josh to hit FA at least one more time while still in his prime.


The sweet spot for young QB extensions is either the offseason before the final year of their rookie deal or the offseason before their 5th year option (assuming they were a first round pick).  Let this season play out.  If we are still sold on him, then move forward.  If there is a cause for concern - whether it is play or COVID related - then we have another season thanks to the fifth year option.  It’s just not a good idea to push things down the road so far that we are looking at possibly having to use the franchise tag.  

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51 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

Assuming Josh continues his great QB play throughout this year and next year....what is he going to fetch?

 

I can imagine its going to be near 40 million a year.

 

Good lord thats a lot of money. Pay it. lol

 

While there is a half season and playoffs to still be played, I would argue he is already a top 8 QB right now.  

 

That being said, I don't know when Josh gets his extension, it may not even be next year, he is only on year 3 of his deal, but I think the amount of the extension will be a 2 part equation.  First part, what did he do in the playoffs.  A subpar playoff game and early exit isn't going to help his case on the contract size.  Two, what kind of home town discount is he willing to include, if at all.  

 

This is what we know about Josh.  

  • He is one of the single most competitive players in the league and wants to win more than anything else.
  • He truly loves Buffalo, its fan base, and playing with this team. 
  • He loves his brothers in that locker room.
  • He is a small town guy and doesn't seem to prioritize money over all other things.

Its always foolish to just assume a player will give a home town discount.  Mahomes has a lot of the same traits above and seems to love playing in KC, yet he didn't afford them a home town discount by any means.  However, Mahomes had also already won a SB, and that changes the mentality a bit too.  If Josh and the Bills come up short of a SB trophy this year, that hunger is going to still be there, especially if they get even closer to it this year.  I can see Josh wanting the team to have a little extra fire power in keeping as many guys as they can and some flexibility in adding some more quality pieces around him for them to all have an even greater shot at the trophy.

 

Then there are just guys that when you really look at them you just feel like he is the kind of guy that prioritizes winning and staying where he loves to play over money regardless of what they have already accomplished.  And Josh is the rare guy I think fits that description, so while no home town discount is assured by any means, I do feel its going to be a strong possibility that Beane and Allen will structure a deal that allows Allen to really cash in but still not be a cap killing contract that would make it harder for Beane to truly keep a championship TEAM on the field.  

Edited by Alphadawg7
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35 minutes ago, Houston's #1 Bills Fan said:

I love how people indicate that Josh "seems" to be the type that would take a discount. But, we really don't know. I certainly hope that he is and that playing for Buffalo is the only thing he cares about. We all love those stories of "hell, I'd play for free,  just don't tell them that!" But, that's not reality.

 

All in all, I hope that he gets a fair deal that he likes and that doesn't preclude us from still obtaining good talent in free agency. 

 

That's what the word "seems" is there for.  

 

23 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

W/o major restructuring there is no cap space to pay him big bucks in 2021. 


sure they can extend give him a new contract 

 

Again there is no cap space in 2021. 

 

Yup.  That's why I don't think an extension is coming after this off-season.

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I wonder if he doesn’t become the first guy to take a cap percentage deal. Maybe the deal is 15% of the cap total as base salary, with an additional signing bonus of 50M for 5 years. That makes him approximately 40M average, BUT insulates him against the cap going crazy and he gets jack ***** and the Bills against the cap falling and having to cut everyone around him. 

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What role do national endorsement deals play? If Josh can get some of those Chunky Soup dollars or whatever, it can blunt the appeal of the big market offers. Josh seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and just as success will lead to huge money, maybe staying in a successful situation that allows him to cash in off the football field will factor into the equation. 

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1 hour ago, Ramza86 said:

Assuming Josh continues his great QB play throughout this year and next year....what is he going to fetch?

 

I can imagine its going to be near 40 million a year.

 

Good lord thats a lot of money. Pay it. lol

If he's a top 8 QB by the end of NEXT year?  Who are the 8+ ahead of him NOW?

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