Chris Simms: The Bills are a perfect matchup for the Pats right now. Can't run, can't stop the run.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. The Tenn game the defense was awful (although even then they got no help from offense and STs). For the most part though it has been as you say - average. Having played the Jets twice does help our numbers a tad though. They are the most pathetic offense in the league.

 

I mean, sure?  But it's like back in 2015-2016 when the mantra was it only looks like we have a run game because Tyrod Taylor, where people would take out his rush yards but not take out the QB rush yards from all the other teams.  If we're going to say bad teams skew the statistics, we're going to have to take out the bottom several teams from everyone's record.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I mean, sure?  But it's like back in 2015-2016 when the mantra was it only looks like we have a run game because Tyrod Taylor, where people would take out his rush yards but not take out the QB rush yards from all the other teams.  If we're going to say bad teams skew the statistics, we're going to have to take out the bottom several teams from everyone's record.

 

Yea I get that but I think my point is the Jets are almost unbelievably bad (over 5 points per game worse than 31st) and two of an already small sample 7 are against them. Overall I do think this is an average defense rather than an awful one. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 10/30/2020 at 7:06 AM, PromoTheRobot said:

We can't run or we don't try to run that much?

 

Good question.  The Bills (on a per game basis) are 24th in rush attempts per game.  But we're only 17th in offensive plays per game.

 

That puts us in the bottom third of the league, 25th overall, for rush attempt % (Data from PFR, I believe that counts Allen's scrambles as rush attempts) at 38%.

 

I'm glad I looked at it, it's interesting.  There are the teams that are unabashed run teams - the Ravens, the Browns, the Patriots, the Rams - 49-50% of their offensive plays are rushes.  KC is surprisingly high this year at 44%, same as the 49ers and 1% back from the Cardinals and Steelers.

 

Of course it's still early enough in the season that stats can be skewed by one game.

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, picking two sentences, fair enough, it's simplistic. But that wasn't all he said. In the first video he talked for 6 or 7 minutes about this game, making a lot of great points. 

 

Also, the idea that because the Pats run defense sucks we'll be able to run with it is hopeful but doesn't make a lot of sense. The Chiefs are allowing 4.9 YPA this year and the Fins 5.0. Those two teams suck against the run yet we went 23 for 84 against KC and 23 for 112 against Miami, both figures well below what the defenses average, and in neither game did we look especially good running it.

 

I hope you're right but I don't find that argument convincing. 

 

IMO it'll come down to how well Cam throws. I think the Bills will do much as they have recently on offense passing, a lot of yards but without a ton of points, being forced to go with the shorter game and finding it a bit frustrating. If that's how it looks, I think the Pats will have a great chance. If the Bills can instead punch in a few TDs this time, we'll win going away. My guess is we'll find that difficult, but if Brown is back to his normal level of performance, my confidence will definitely improve.

 

And that low-scoring game that is my guess, will put it in Cam's hands, I think. I'm worried he'll have a better game. Hopefully not.

 

 

 

 

 

Thurm,  I did open my argument saying it would be simplistic - to match Simm's simplistic summary.  

 

In fact, I do worry about this game.  The Bills D has only played one good game this year and that was against the lowly Jets.  We can't get to the QB, can't cover wideouts, can't stop the run.  Offensively, things have been somewhat better but we've been one-dimensional.   Here's another simplistic point: As Josh goes, so goes the team.  When Josh plays well, we win.  When he doesn't, we lose.  

 

With that in mind, we have a few things to worry about:  (1)  The weather isn't going to help our passing game - though I'm not sure how much it'll hurt it.  (2)  Irrespective of weather,  Josh - much improved this year - still has bad days.  (3)  Those bad days seem to be brought about by good defensive scheming.  (4)  Belichick is a scheming mastermind.  

 

Despite the difference in records, the outcome is not a foregone conclusion.  If Cam gets hot, as you say, the Pats could easily win.  

 

I hope Josh shows the patience that he showed against the Jets and takes whatever Belichick gives him.  While that approach didn't result in any TDs last week, it's far better than trying to force throws into coverage or waiting for five seconds for someone to break free downfield.  This NE defense this year just isn't good enough to defend everything.  Gilmore's injury hopefully makes them even more vulnerable. 

 

I also hope Feliciano starts.  His presence in a game against a team with a poor run D hopefully sparks our running attack.  

 

 

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

Curious, the 'experts' at Patriots.com don't, for the most part, see the game the same way Simms does.  

 

Paul Perillo, Patriots.com:

Pick: Bills 26, Patriots 17

 

Buffalo is now the favorite and the Patriots just don't have enough offensively to change that … unless the weather becomes a big factor.

 

Mike Dussault, Patriots.com:

Pick: Patriots 16, Bills 13

 

The Patriots backs are against the wall in Buffalo and with weather expected to impact the game it might be just the boost the Pats need. With wet and windy conditions it's all about the run game and special teams as the Patriots find a way to grind out a big win.

 

Erik Scalavino, Patriots.com:

Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 10

 

Weather looks like it's going to be a factor in Buffalo Sunday, with heavy winds and rain likely making this even more of a ground-based game than it might have been, at least from the Bills' perspective. This might benefit New England initially, because the strength of the Patriots offense is clearly its rushing attack. And with health issues at wide receiver, the Patriots might need to rely on their running backs even more this weekend. However, they're running straight into the buzz saw that its Buffalo, a talented team that's poised to overtake New England as perennial AFC East Champs. If the Bills want to get there, they need to win this game, and they're in a great position to do so.

 

Megan O'Brien, Patriots.com:

Pick: Bills 21, Patriots 3

 

Ugly game. The Patriots offense can't do much of anything. Defense sets up a score on a turnover, but other than that, not much positive to take away.

 

[auburnbillsbacker]

I think the Bills will win but there is some logic in his point of view.

[Nihilarian]

13 hours ago, BillsFan692 said:

The bills shut down henry but gave TN everything else they wanted. Then they shut down mahommes but gave KC everything else they wanted.

 

Seems coaching related to me. Like game strategy decisions. Im no NFL coach but I think more balance and keeping the other team guessing is better approach then selling out one way or the other.

 

What am I missing?

The thing is, they didn't shut down Mahomes. They simply limited his deeper throws to Tyreek Hill by playing safeties /corners deep. So, when KC saw how deep the Bills were dropping they ran and threw underneath. Mahomes went 21-26 for 225 yards, 2 TDs.

 

This was the wrong tactic for the Bills to utilize against the Chiefs and what really bothers me is they kept it up all game long. I hope the Bills don't try the same type of tactic against the Patriots in staying with one scheme. Whatever defensive tactic the Bills employ this week I hope they are smart enough to change it up if it isn't working.

 

 

On an another note, the Bills have yet to actually commit to running the ball more than once or twice a series as they have neglected it for an entire half last game. RB's much like QB's need to get into a rhythm and the more they run usually the better the ground game works. It also wears down the opposing defense the more they run. Bills OC Brian Daboll prides himself on utilizing that Patriots passing play book. A darn shame he doesn't utilize their run schemes much in comparison. 

 

Another thing, now that the Bills have #76 Big Jon back that Bills run game should very much improve. Run the ball a lot with Moss, Singletary and good things should happen on Sunday. 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Nihilarian

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Nihilarian said:

The thing is, they didn't shut down Mahomes. They simply limited his deeper throws to Tyreek Hill by playing safeties /corners deep. So, when KC saw how deep the Bills were dropping they ran and threw underneath. Mahomes went 21-26 for 225 yards, 2 TDs.

 

This was the wrong tactic for the Bills to utilize against the Chiefs and what really bothers me is they kept it up all game long. I hope the Bills don't try the same type of tactic against the Patriots in staying with one scheme. Whatever defensive tactic the Bills employ this week I hope they are smart enough to change it up if it isn't working.

 

 

On an another note, the Bills have yet to actually commit to running the ball more than once or twice a series as they have neglected it for an entire half last game. RB's much like QB's need to get into a rhythm and the more they run usually the better the ground game works. Bills OC Brian Daboll prides himself on utilizing that Patriots passing play book. A darn shame he doesn't utilize their run schemes much in comparison. 

 

Another thing, now that the Bills have #76 Big Jon back that Bills run game should very much improve. Run the ball a lot with Moss, Singletary and good things should happen on Sunday. 

I agree we should run more.  Haven’t watched the Pats but from what I’ve read they’re weak on runs to the edge.  I think we see Motor and Moss come out of hibernation tomorrow.  Plus Josh on some read option.

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree we should run more.  Haven’t watched the Pats but from what I’ve read they’re weak on runs to the edge.  I think we see Motor and Moss come out of hibernation tomorrow.  Plus Josh on some read option.

Perhaps a few more jet sweeps but not back to back this time?

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Perhaps a few more jet sweeps but not back to back this time?

I think we’ll see a couple.  I think the weather is going to affect things if the wind is what they’re predicting.  If it’s really windy and Josh throws the first dozen or so plays like recent games I’ll be screaming at the TV.

[WideNine]

A lot of fans are nervous after a closer than desired game against the Jets.

 

The Athletic had an article that dove into this a bit more and the take away from why we stalled so many times in the red zone, relying on Bass rather than punching it in. Had we punched it in on just half our trips there, the game would have been more lopsided.

 

Those failed attempts mostly came down to two factors, the play of our guards, and Allen's trust in their play. Because of pressures given up by Ike and Winters Allen often had to reset, or scramble. This also messed with Allen's internal clock where he was not going through his progressions in the red zone to find the open man (there were options) instead locking on his first read, either forcing the throw or escaping the pocket early.

 

Hard thing to ask a QB to do...trust guys who have given up inside pressure, or blind side strip-sacks, but more times than not the pocket held long enough and Allen has to trust it a bit more. Better play from our guards would certainly help with that.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2020 by WideNine

[CommonCents]

24 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree we should run more.  Haven’t watched the Pats but from what I’ve read they’re weak on runs to the edge.  I think we see Motor and Moss come out of hibernation tomorrow.  Plus Josh on some read option.

I think the them being weak on the edges comes from the SF game. People are discounting how good KS is at calling a running game though. 

 

Without Gilmore the Bills should be able to pick apart their D and open up the run game.

 

Smash EM.

Edited October 31, 2020 by CommonCents

[oldmanfan]

13 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

 

Some of these guys either haven't watched the bills or have jumped off the bandwagon extremely quick because the bills never beat teams by 17+ points as a few of these picks indicate.

 

A blowout for a McClappy coached team is 9 or 10 points and the only time we did that this year is week one against the Jets.

Do you enjoy acting like a 3 year old?  The derogatory term for the coach got old a long time ago.  

[formerlyofCtown]

On 10/30/2020 at 5:03 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

The Pats - Bills content starts around 42:00.

 

Some excerpts:

 

Burmeister: What's going on with Cam Newton?

 

Simms: Well, he's off. No doubt about that.

 

Simms argues that the Pats last week were a terrible matchup against the Niners, as the Niners are "a run-first-centric team" and Shanahan's the run genius of football. And the Patriots on defense are built to stop passing offenses. He argues Belichick tries to scare you out of runs by packing the box, but then backs away, and some of the eight guys in the box are littler guys than are usually up there and wouldn't be especially effective against the run.

 

Simms: "What you've got to do is go, ' Oh, OK, we're outnumbered in the box, so what, that guy's 195 pounds, that guy's 205 pounds, our right guard can block both of them with his right arm.' " And Shanahan stuck with the run.

 

Asked what he thought were the Pats biggest offensive problems he said offensive line injuries and post-COVID Cam hasn't been the same after missing three weeks of football. They both thought his motion is off right now. But what made me a bit worried is something Simms said about that.

 

Simms:  "[Newton] gets into this almost once a year his whole career. ... where his front shoulder gets way high in the air."

 

Goes on to say (quite a bit later) that Newton has had this problem many times before for a week or two or three and then either he or a coach figures it out and corrects it and he starts playing better again.

 

... and ...

 

Simms: "And now they've got Buffalo this week, and that's the perfect team for them. Again, matchups. ... The Bills can't stop the run and they can't run the ball, so they have to throw it every play. Perfect for New England. So don't be shocked if New England upset Buffalo this week."

 

 

 

And later, his preview of the game:

 

 

 

He and Florio both pick the Pats, saying the Bills strength is passing and the Pats strength is stopping the pass, and that on offense the Pats strength is running while the Bills weakness is stopping the run.

 

Makes some sense.

 

If they're right, we'd better do a good job in the run game on both sides of the ball. Hopefully Feliciano's return will make a real difference.

 

 

 

Whattya think?

Josh must have refused to let him touch him.

28 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Do you enjoy acting like a 3 year old?  The derogatory term for the coach got old a long time ago.  

He doesn't know.  He was a Patriots fan last season.

[reddogblitz]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While they have not run 2-1 personnel in those early games they did motion Knox into the backfield as a sort of H-back with Singletary a bit. They haven't done it with any of the other tight ends that I have seen so they must think there is something specific in Knox's skillset.

 

I have seen Kroft line up in the backfield several times.

[Orlando Tim]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

The thing is, they didn't shut down Mahomes. They simply limited his deeper throws to Tyreek Hill by playing safeties /corners deep. So, when KC saw how deep the Bills were dropping they ran and threw underneath. Mahomes went 21-26 for 225 yards, 2 TDs.

 

This was the wrong tactic for the Bills to utilize against the Chiefs and what really bothers me is they kept it up all game long. I hope the Bills don't try the same type of tactic against the Patriots in staying with one scheme. Whatever defensive tactic the Bills employ this week I hope they are smart enough to change it up if it isn't working.

 

 

On an another note, the Bills have yet to actually commit to running the ball more than once or twice a series as they have neglected it for an entire half last game. RB's much like QB's need to get into a rhythm and the more they run usually the better the ground game works. It also wears down the opposing defense the more they run. Bills OC Brian Daboll prides himself on utilizing that Patriots passing play book. A darn shame he doesn't utilize their run schemes much in comparison. 

 

Another thing, now that the Bills have #76 Big Jon back that Bills run game should very much improve. Run the ball a lot with Moss, Singletary and good things should happen on Sunday. 

I will say with 99% certainty that we will have a much more attacking D this week then against KC. The style of NE is not the same as KC and obviously the talent level of NE is not in the same echelon.

[boater]

On 10/30/2020 at 6:29 AM, ChevyVanMiller said:

“Hope” is the thing with feathers -

That perches in the soul -

And sings the tune without the words -

And never stops - at all
 

- Emily Dickinson 

This thread delves into the esoteric. Quoting Emily Dickinson and Andy Dufresne.

 

I'll dog pile into that and say "Hope is not a strategy" .. Rudy Guilliani

[97bills]

On 10/30/2020 at 6:54 AM, jletha said:

I actually dont think our main weakness is stopping the run. When we gameplan to stop it we do. We held Derrick Henry to 57 yards, 3 YPA which is his lowest of the season. The Chiefs ran all over us but 1) their the Chiefs and 2) McD literally said that was the plan.

 

I think our biggest weakness is QB contain and the secondary which impacts the run game.

Your right on the KC game as much as I hated seeing us get ran on like that if our offense would of been playing like they have been we could of won that game. Allen has to start playing better in big games 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 10/30/2020 at 4:03 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

Simms: "And now they've got Buffalo this week, and that's the perfect team for them. Again, matchups. ... The Bills can't stop the run and they can't run the ball, so they have to throw it every play. Perfect for New England. So don't be shocked if New England upset Buffalo this week."

 

He and Florio both pick the Pats, saying the Bills strength is passing and the Pats strength is stopping the pass, and that on offense the Pats strength is running while the Bills weakness is stopping the run.

 

Makes some sense.

 

If they're right, we'd better do a good job in the run game on both sides of the ball. Hopefully Feliciano's return will make a real difference.

 

Whattya think?

 

I understand his logic.  Same logic had him pick the Panthers to beat the Falcons....we know how that went down.

 

I love Florio's line about the Patriots..."They're the Terminator.  They're not dead until they're melted down and the liquid is dispersed over 5 different continents"

Here's wishing the Bills a good blast furnace and dispersal mechanism.

 

I think Stefon Digg's frustration and Josh Allen's self-doubt are being over-estimated, and Buffalo's inability to stop the run (provided they focus on that) is being under-estimated.

[Jerome007]

On 10/30/2020 at 5:57 AM, Mat68 said:

I think the Bills running issues are a little overblown.  Henry was held in check.  Jacobs was held in check.  2 games hurt LAR and KC.  Vs LAR the offense got going and their playaction had the defense guessing.  KC was a strategic ploy to not commit extra guys in the box, stop Mahomes.  I do not see a 1 dimensional offense giving a Mcdermott defense problems.  I think Chris is over simplifing the matchup.  Can Buffalo commit more to stopping the run without worrying about getting burned outside? Yes.  Against a favorable matchup and favorable looks could Buffalo have success running? Yes.  

 

Against NE Buffalo can and should play man on early downs.  Third and longs they have 0 shot.  Allen would need to have his worst game of the season for this to be a close game.  I think NE play more man than we faced in the past few weeks.  Buffalo gets some big plays early.  These are the type of games Diggs was brought in for.  I think Buffalo wins big 27-9

The run D seemed decent in the first games. But even then we saw weaknesses IMO, but it seems to me opposing OC didn't target that weakness enough, thankfully. Henry wasn't in good form on that day. Like he did it half ass. Still, he was held to very little.

 

But it's not just "hope" to say they performed quite well in the 2nd half of this last Jets game, they did! As many mentioned, stack the box and see if Newton can beat the D with his arm and cast of reeceivers.