Chris Simms: The Bills are a perfect matchup for the Pats right now. Can't run, can't stop the run.

[MPT]

10 hours ago, uticaclub said:

Henry was kept in check because the Titans didn't need their best player to win the game

 

That's what I thought. I'm sure Vrabel anticipated us committing to run defense and said "fine, we'll run just enough to keep you committed and then throw it all over you." 

 

I don't think the Patriots can pull off the same thing though, especially if White, Wallace, and Milano are healthy.

[Putin]

13 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I have been saying for over a week that this is a terrible matchup for the Bills. Buffalo might win - they are better - but matchup-wise this is a nightmare.

Who are exactly  are  you talking about that are the matchup nightmare for us ? 
White , Burkhead ? I’m not sure I know who else is soooo scary on that offense 
 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Putin

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, WideNine said:

The 49ers chewed up NE with their 21 personnel - basically two backs and Kittle as the TE. They can either use a back as a lead blocker or as misdirection to attack weak gaps, or as extra blockers where Kittle is a mismatch.

 

I think in this regard our offense has very little practice executing this alignment, in fact we probably spend most of our snaps in an empty-set (I have not looked that up - just a gut feeling).

 

This would be a great example of why you shouldn't trust your gut feelings.

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

 

Bills run an empty set (no running back) less than 3% of the time.  0-0 2% (7); 0-1 0% (1), 0-2 never

The majority of the time (75%) the Bills run a 1-1: 1 back, 1 TE, 3 WR

Second most common (18%): 1-0; 1 back, no TE, 4 WR

 

You are correct, however, that the Bills have never run 2-1 personnel.

 

Quote

Not only are we not running the ball when we go empty, we are not even threatening to run the ball so we cannot leverage any play-action.

 

So actually, that last might be wrong.  Someone did a very interesting piece on how the Bills were using the empty set to execute RPOs against the Jets.  Hmmm, Cover-1?

I'll look for it.  The point made was that the way the Bills are using it, short passes such as bubble-screens are essentially an extension of the run game.  Also, an "empty set" isn't necessarily an empty set because Allen can run.  Check it out, it's "premium content" but there's a free 1 day trial, I think you'll find it interesting.

 

https://www.cover1.net/bills-offensive-coordinator-brian-daboll-giving-josh-allen-more-answers/

 

I would hope the Bills would not use 21 personnel, because they don't have the hosses for it.  But there may be other ways to achieve the same goal.

 

21 minutes ago, Putin said:

Who are exactly  are  you talking about that are the matchup nightmare for us ? 
White , Burkhead ? I’m not sure I know who else is soooo scary on that offense 
 

 

I think he's probably speaking in generalized terms ie:

 

Patriots great running  | Bills crappy run D, may struggle to stop

 

Bills great passing | Mother Nature is a B word

 

Patriots poor run D | Bills crappy running game, may still struggle to run

 

 

[unclepete]

I agree with his statement. Add the bad weather to the mix and this could spell bad news for us. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I'm preparing for the worst. 

 

Everyone is crapping on the Patriots. Would make complete sense for them to put up 300 rushing yards on us. 

[WideNine]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This would be a great example of why you shouldn't trust your gut feelings.

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

 

Bills run an empty set (no running back) less than 3% of the time.  0-0 2% (7); 0-1 0% (1), 0-2 never

The majority of the time (75%) the Bills run a 1-1: 1 back, 1 TE, 3 WR

Second most common (18%): 1-0; 1 back, no TE, 4 WR

 

You are correct, however, that the Bills have never run 2-1 personnel.

 

 

So actually, that last might be wrong.  Someone did a very interesting piece on how the Bills were using the empty set to execute RPOs against the Jets.  Hmmm, Cover-1?

I'll look for it.  The point made was that the way the Bills are using it, short passes such as bubble-screens are essentially an extension of the run game.  Also, an "empty set" isn't necessarily an empty set because Allen can run.  Check it out, it's "premium content" but there's a free 1 day trial, I think you'll find it interesting.

 

https://www.cover1.net/bills-offensive-coordinator-brian-daboll-giving-josh-allen-more-answers/

 

I would hope the Bills would not use 21 personnel, because they don't have the hosses for it.  But there may be other ways to achieve the same goal.

 

 

I think he's probably speaking in generalized terms ie:

 

Patriots great running  | Bills crappy run D, may struggle to stop

 

Bills great passing | Mother Nature is a B word

 

Patriots poor run D | Bills crappy running game, may still struggle to run

 

 

 

Thanks Hapless, I will definitely check that out.

 

I never quite got that bubble screen being an extension of running game  - more a lateral, but understand that it's a common saying. 

 

I guess the receiver is behind the LOS and it relies on RAC much like a toss sweep...

 

Either way, I think the bubble was a good option with teams playing off our receivers and dropping into zones.

 

If we keep a back in the backfiekd the bubble also helps keep teams from loading the box against the run as they have to defend sideline to sideline. The downside is that they are tough touch-throws for Allen like most screen throws can be.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, MPT said:

 

That's what I thought. I'm sure Vrabel anticipated us committing to run defense and said "fine, we'll run just enough to keep you committed and then throw it all over you." 

 

I don't think the Patriots can pull off the same thing though, especially if White, Wallace, and Milano are healthy.

 

Tennessee ran 34 times to 28 pass attempts.  Even considering that 4 of those rushes were Tannehill and likely to be scrambles, that's still pretty much even.

 

Derrick Henry ran 19 times for 57 yds, average of 3 ypc.  That was a season low for Henry, but not that much lower than 3 other games, and for another back/team, pretty good number of carries.  McCoy in his workhorse days with Philly/Buffalo averaged 14-20 carries/game.  So 30-34 carries ain't exactly minimalist in the run game.  (McNichols had 9)

 

4 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Thanks Hapless, I will definitely check that out.

 

I never quite got that bubble screen being an extension of running game  - more a lateral, but understand that it's a common saying. 

 

I guess the receiver is behind the LOS and it relies on RAC much like a toss sweep...

 

Either way, I think the bubble was a good option with teams playing off our receivers and dropping into zones.

 

If we keep a back in the backfiekd the bubble also helps keep teams from loading the box against the run as they have to defend sideline to sideline. The downside is that they are tough touch-throws for Allen like most screen throws can be.

 

Against the Jets, they were using Beas as the target.  Read the article - good read - one of the points made was that they have to defend against Allen running.  Once they commit to defending against him, he passes.

[BillsFan692]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Tennessee ran 34 times to 28 pass attempts.  Even considering that 4 of those rushes were Tannehill and likely to be scrambles, that's still pretty much even.

 

Derrick Henry ran 19 times for 57 yds, average of 3 ypc.  That was a season low for Henry, but not that much lower than 3 other games, and for another back/team, pretty good number of carries.  McCoy in his workhorse days with Philly/Buffalo averaged 14-20 carries/game.  So 30-34 carries ain't exactly minimalist in the run game.  (McNichols had 9)

 

 

Against the Jets, they were using Beas as the target.  Read the article - good read - one of the points made was that they have to defend against Allen running.  Once they commit to defending against him, he passes.

The bills shut down henry but gave TN everything else they wanted. Then they shut down mahommes but gave KC everything else they wanted.

 

Seems coaching related to me. Like game strategy decisions. Im no NFL coach but I think more balance and keeping the other team guessing is better approach then selling out one way or the other.

 

What am I missing?

[Big Blitz]

Not if Gilmore is out.

 

And yes, I just might start Harris in fantasy.  Weather just says NE will be trying to run until....well they can't.  No Edelman.  Trash WRs.  

 

Harris goes for 100 and a TD.  

 

Bills still win 17-13.  

Edited October 31, 2020 by Big Blitz

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, MPT said:

 

That's what I thought. I'm sure Vrabel anticipated us committing to run defense and said "fine, we'll run just enough to keep you committed and then throw it all over you." 

 

I don't think the Patriots can pull off the same thing though, especially if White, Wallace, and Milano are healthy.

 

 

It could come down to that question.

 

But few people or nobody has responded to the other section of the interview I transcribed about Newton's consistent mechanical problems and fixes.

 

Simms says that Cam has had the same sort of mechanical issues he's having now many times during his career for a game or two or three. But that then he's consistently been able to quickly fix the problem when it's addressed and get back to his regular mechanics and his regular performance level.

 

If that happens and he is back to normal next week, we won't be able to sell out to stop the run, confident that Cam can't beat us.

[oldmanfan]

53 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It could come down to that question.

 

But few people or nobody has responded to the other section of the interview I transcribed about Newton's consistent mechanical problems and fixes.

 

Simms says that Cam has had the same sort of mechanical issues he's having now many times during his career for a game or two or three. But that then he's consistently been able to quickly fix the problem when it's addressed and get back to his regular mechanics and his regular performance level.

 

If that happens and he is back to normal next week, we won't be able to sell out to stop the run, confident that Cam can't beat us.

He doesn’t have receivers to throw to.  And it may be a tough day for passing with the winds.  And he has struggled.

 

If it were Belichick coaching for us, he’d take away the thing the Pats do well -running- and force Newton to prove he can beat you with his arm.  I expect McD and Frazier to do the same.  

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This would be a great example of why you shouldn't trust your gut feelings.

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

 

Bills run an empty set (no running back) less than 3% of the time.  0-0 2% (7); 0-1 0% (1), 0-2 never

The majority of the time (75%) the Bills run a 1-1: 1 back, 1 TE, 3 WR

Second most common (18%): 1-0; 1 back, no TE, 4 WR

 

You are correct, however, that the Bills have never run 2-1 personnel.

 

While they have not run 2-1 personnel in those early games they did motion Knox into the backfield as a sort of H-back with Singletary a bit. They haven't done it with any of the other tight ends that I have seen so they must think there is something specific in Knox's skillset.

[machine gun kelly]

Sal made a good point yesterday in that we have been able for the most part to take the opposing offense best thing away like Henry, allowing the run to keep Mahomes from killing us in the air, but he said we’re just not good enough this year to take care of everything. The morning guys on WGR made the point that we were going to most likely at all costs stop the run game as Cam has no one to throw to so for the, to win, they have to be able to do it in the air.  That makes a great deal of sense to me, and they discussed how we shouldn’t change what put us at 5-2 which is 11, or 14 personnel.  To me it’s simply not changing what we do , but executing like we did in the first four games.  Their secondary is old.  We are not built like the 49ers so it’s a waste to try and execute on something we haven’t done.  We don’t have the personnel for 21, 12, or 13 personnel.  

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

He doesn’t have receivers to throw to.  And it may be a tough day for passing with the winds.  And he has struggled.

 

If it were Belichick coaching for us, he’d take away the thing the Pats do well -running- and force Newton to prove he can beat you with his arm.  I expect McD and Frazier to do the same.  

 

 

If he doesn't have the receivers to throw to, how come he looked very good throwing the ball for the first two or three games. 

 

I certainly agree it's big that Edelman is out. But Harry isn't bad, the backs catch well and the run game makes it hard to defend the pass game.

 

I agree with you that that's likely to be our defensive approach. I hope it works. I'm more nervous than many on here appear to be.

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

If he doesn't have the receivers to throw to, how come he looked very good throwing the ball for the first two or three games. 

 

I certainly agree it's big that Edelman is out. But Harry isn't bad, the backs catch well and the run game makes it hard to defend the pass game.

 

I agree with you that that's likely to be our defensive approach. I hope it works. I'm more nervous than many on here appear to be.

Edelman is out.  Harry is out.  His TEs are out.  He had them his first several games.  Come on.

 

Sometimes it amuses me how paranoid we get.  They will force Newton to show he can perform; he has struggled.  Why assume he’s all of a sudden going to discover things?  We’ll make him show he can, much like Belichick will probably make us show we can run the ball.  It will be an interesting chess match.

 

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

I generally like Simms but this is so simplistic.  So let me respond with simplistic counter arguments.

 

The Bills will have a balanced attack this game this Sunday.  The Bills passing attack is one of the most prolific in the NFL this year.  And against the Pats, they'll finally find success on the ground because the Pats run defense is putrid (6th worst in the NFL).    Expect the Bills to be effective on the ground as well as in the air.  

 

At the same time, the Patriots offense will remain one-dimensional.   The Pats dysfunctional, 28th ranked passing attack isn't likely to do much harm.  So Frazier and the Bills D will be able to focus almost entirely on the run.  

 

Statistically speaking, the Bills are clearly a better team than the Pats.   At this point in the season, the Bills have gained more yards/game, given up fewer yards/game, achieved a better point differential, and found more ways to win.  

 

Advantage: Bills.  

 

 

 

 

Yes, picking two sentences, fair enough, it's simplistic. But that wasn't all he said. In the first video he talked for 6 or 7 minutes about this game, making a lot of great points. 

 

Also, the idea that because the Pats run defense sucks we'll be able to run with it is hopeful but doesn't make a lot of sense. The Chiefs are allowing 4.9 YPA this year and the Fins 5.0. Those two teams suck against the run yet we went 23 for 84 against KC and 23 for 112 against Miami, both figures well below what the defenses average, and in neither game did we look especially good running it.

 

I hope you're right but I don't find that argument convincing. 

 

IMO it'll come down to how well Cam throws. I think the Bills will do much as they have recently on offense passing, a lot of yards but without a ton of points, being forced to go with the shorter game and finding it a bit frustrating. If that's how it looks, I think the Pats will have a great chance. If the Bills can instead punch in a few TDs this time, we'll win going away. My guess is we'll find that difficult, but if Brown is back to his normal level of performance, my confidence will definitely improve.

 

And that low-scoring game that is my guess, will put it in Cam's hands, I think. I'm worried he'll have a better game. Hopefully not.

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While they have not run 2-1 personnel in those early games they did motion Knox into the backfield as a sort of H-back with Singletary a bit. They haven't done it with any of the other tight ends that I have seen so they must think there is something specific in Knox's skillset.

 

I'm pretty sure I saw Kroft in that position vs. the Jets.  Though it may have been a 0-1set.

 

7 hours ago, BillsFan692 said:

The bills shut down henry but gave TN everything else they wanted. Then they shut down mahommes but gave KC everything else they wanted.

 

Seems coaching related to me. Like game strategy decisions. Im no NFL coach but I think more balance and keeping the other team guessing is better approach then selling out one way or the other.

 

What am I missing?

 

It's more what the Bills were missing on defense - healthy personnel that would allow them to execute their game plan better: contain the QB and play man on the back.  No White (or hampered vs. KC), no Wallace (takes abuse but better than the alternatives), no Milano, injured Edmunds.

 

Deciding to do a pre-season DT position evaluation at DL probably didn't help.

 

In retrospect, I thought Simms had a good point that forcing KC into a ball-control grind it out offense that kept the ball away from us might not have been the best move.  That said, our offense wasn't keeping the ball and KC may have decided to do that anyway.

 

[Scott7975]

20 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

If he doesn't have the receivers to throw to, how come he looked very good throwing the ball for the first two or three games. 

 

I certainly agree it's big that Edelman is out. But Harry isn't bad, the backs catch well and the run game makes it hard to defend the pass game.

 

I agree with you that that's likely to be our defensive approach. I hope it works. I'm more nervous than many on here appear to be.

First he is missing those players this week. Second, did he really look all that good the first few weeks? In the first three games combined he threw for 2 TDs and 2 ints. Two of those games he passed for 162 yards or less. The third game he had a lot of yards but against a defense that might be worse than ours. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just another viewpoint

 

Chris Simms saw the KC game and was appalled by it.  His commentary on our front 7 was "their defense sucks...nobody in their front seven is worth a damn".  If it's true, we're in big trouble.

 

I'm going to put it out there it's not good, but perhaps not that dire.  The arm bones connected to the shoulder - the DL and LB look worse if the DB can't cover long enough to get there (and vice versa of course).   We have been dealing with injuries - how many teams can lose both starting CB and still shut down a team in man (Tenn)?  And of course, a great team can make an average team look bad.

 

Currently the Bills stand 21-23 for points and yards given up, but with the large variance in how many games have been played this year, that's harder to sort than usual.  11-12 of the teams ahead of us have played one less game.

 

Normalized for PPG and YPG, the Bills are 15th (PPG) or 16th (YPG).  (data from Pro-football-reference, calculation by moi)

 

Yes, we are precisely an AVERAGE team on defense.  That's not what we expected; it's not good.  But it's not crap, either, considering we have played some good teams and the reigning World Champions.   It's not impossible of improvement if we can get healthier and sort stuff out on the DL.

 

PS we're currently about an average team on offense as well - 20th in PPG and 11th in YPG.  Again, not good but not impossible of improvement, we're moving the ball well, we need to punch it in more.

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Just another viewpoint

 

Chris Simms saw the KC game and was appalled by it.  His commentary on our front 7 was "their defense sucks...nobody in their front seven is worth a damn".  If it's true, we're in big trouble.

 

I'm going to put it out there it's not good, but perhaps not that dire.  The arm bones connected to the shoulder - the DL and LB look worse if the DB can't cover long enough to get there (and vice versa of course).   We have been dealing with injuries - how many teams can lose both starting CB and still shut down a team in man (Tenn)?  And of course, a great team can make an average team look bad.

 

Currently the Bills stand 21-23 for points and yards given up, but with the large variance in how many games have been played this year, that's harder to sort than usual.  11-12 of the teams ahead of us have played one less game.

 

Normalized for PPG and YPG, the Bills are 15th (PPG) or 16th (YPG).  (data from Pro-football-reference, calculation by moi)

 

Yes, we are precisely an AVERAGE team on defense.  That's not what we expected; it's not good.  But it's not crap, either, considering we have played some good teams and the reigning World Champions.   It's not impossible of improvement if we can get healthier and sort stuff out on the DL.

 

 

Agree. The Tenn game the defense was awful (although even then they got no help from offense and STs). For the most part though it has been as you say - average. Having played the Jets twice does help our numbers a tad though. They are the most pathetic offense in the league.